Creeping Unemployment in the New Battlegrounds: PA and MI

The big news of the campaign, once you get beyond Mitt’s kabuki storm assistance and auto bashing, is that PA and MI are battlegrounds again.

Maybe.

First, Restore Our Future PAC announced $2 million ad buys in both states.  The the Obama campaign announced they’d buy ads as well.

Today, the Detroit News has a poll showing Mitt within 2.7% of Obama (though polling ended on the 29th, when Mitt’s deceitful auto binge began). In fact, while Romney and Ryan were “not campaigning” yesterday, Ann Romney was, here in Grand Rapids.

Some commentators suggest this is just Mitt’s effort to open up new battlegrounds as it becomes clear he won’t win OH and might not win VA (or FL, but that would be game over for him). That is, Mitt has to look viable, and by moving into MI and PA, he can sustain narratives that he still has a shot.

That may be what’s going on.

But it pays to look at what has been going on with the unemployment rate in both MI and PA (I’ve included OH for comparison and MN because it often gets thrown into these discussions).

MI’s unemployment rate is up 1% off its recent low in April (the downtick this month, and some of last month’s uptick, is probably due to the way the auto companies handled model year layoffs). Part of the uptick is probably due to Rick Snyder’s austerity plans; part is probably due to Obama’s failure to provide real mortgage relief.

PA’s unemployment rate is up .8% from its recent low in May. Here, too, Republican governor Tom Corbett has pursued austerity measures. In addition, PA is exposed to the Euro-related decline that has hurt much of the Northeast.

The point, though, is that both these states have the makings of a battleground state–including a white working class population that can swing with economic tides–plus rising unemployment. Obama is still ahead in both. A few more ads about the auto bailout–indeed, Mitt’s deceitful attacks on GM and Chrysler generally–will probably move MI back towards Obama. And the Philadelphia area was spared the worst of Sandy, staving off the possibility that Pennsyltucky would have unimpeded voting while the Democratic Southeast would have floods. So it’s still most likely Obama will win both by comfortable margins.

But one thing makes movement towards Mitt more realistic here than in, say, MN. The economy is getting worse again. And in spite of all Mitt’s unforced errors in recent days, and in spite of the way that Snyder and Corbett’s state level policies–which mirror those Mitt would adopt at the federal level–have almost certainly exacerbated unemployment, voters may still turn to Mitt as an alternative to a stalled recovery.

Mitt’s play in MI and PA is probably a ploy to look viable. But there are a lot of unemployed workers in both states who will help him along.

Tweet about this on Twitter5Share on Reddit0Share on Facebook2Google+0Email to someone

15 Responses to Creeping Unemployment in the New Battlegrounds: PA and MI

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15

Emptywheel Twitterverse
bmaz RT @DanCBarr: @bmaz They will probably rule quickly. Reinhardt wrote Perry and Smith-Kline. Berzon joined in Smith-Kline. Gould wrote Witt.…
6mreplyretweetfavorite
JimWhiteGNV “@TBTimes_Rays: Good play by #Rays Longoria on bad throw by Hanigan to catch Bogaerts stealing 3B” Cartwheel tag.
15mreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @etb714 @wellsbennett Okay, that is an awesomely cute picture.
37mreplyretweetfavorite
JimWhiteGNV RT @JohnHorneUK: This award winning pic was taken in #Bahrain in Feb 2011. In July 2014 the photographer was arrestd & tortured for it http…
42mreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @DanCBarr Agree. I'm just still disappointed in Reinhardt's Romer based watered down Perry decision. Hope they get this decision out quickly
58mreplyretweetfavorite
JimWhiteGNV Things are getting a bit stir-crazy in the @SunSportsRays booth. I think Brian just asked a pitch out on a date with him. "That's gorgeous!"
1hreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @adamsteinbaugh @APribetic Feel free to give her my best. Take a stun gun.
1hreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @DanCBarr I was musing to someone few minutes ago that it might be advantageous if Reinhardt let Berzon write the opinion, but doubt he will
1hreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @APribetic @adamsteinbaugh Don't use that term on Twitter. Ever. It is always best unheard of and from.
1hreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @chrisgeidner After that pulled punch bastardization in Perry, would almost like to see Berzon write it. She is very good.
1hreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @chrisgeidner @EQCF Can't beat that panel. Excellent!
1hreplyretweetfavorite
October 2012
S M T W T F S
« Sep   Nov »
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031