Future Forecast: Roundup of Scattered Probabilities

[The Crystal Ball by John William Waterhouse, c. 1902]

While thinking about forecasting the future, I collected a few short-term predictions for the year ahead worth kicking around a bit. After gazing deeply into my crystal ball, I added a few predictions of my own.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center at NOAA forecasts below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest along with higher than average temperatures in the Southwest through Summer 2013. Looks like rainfall across areas stricken by drought in 2012 might be normal, but this will not overcome the soil moisture deficit.

My prediction: Beef, pork, and milk prices will remain high or increase — and that’s before any weirdness in pricing due to changes in federal regulations after the so-called “fiscal cliff.” And the U.S. government, both White House and Congress, will continue to do even less than the public expects when it comes to climate change.

The European Commission predicted the UK will lead economic recovery in the EU with a meager 0.9% growth rate anticipated in 2013. The southern portion of the EU is expected to continue to struggle while the rest of the EU stagnates.

My prediction: More mumbling about breaking up the EU, with just enough growth to keep at bay any action to that effect. Silvio Berlusconi will continue to provide both embarrassment and comedic relief to Italy and the EU. (What are they putting in that old freak’s pasta? Or are they doping his hair color?)

In September, the Federal Reserve Bank forecast slowish growth in the U.S. through 2013. Did they take into account the lame duck status of an already lethargic and incompetent Congress in this prediction? Did the Fed Reserve base this forecast on a Romney or an Obama win? This forecast seems oddly optimistic before November’s election.

My prediction: All bets are off now, since the over-long backbiting and quibbling over the so-called fiscal cliff has eroded public sentiment. Given the likelihood of increased food prices due to the 2012 global drought, the public will feel more pain in their wallet no matter the outcome of fiscal cliff negotiations, negatively affecting consumer sentiment. The only saving grace has been stable to lower gasoline prices due to lower heating oil demand–the only positive outcome of a rather warm winter to date.

An analyst forecast Apple sales of iPads will equate nearly 60 percent of the total tablet market in 2013. As an owner of AAPL stock, I rather liked this. Unfortunately, that prediction was made in October, before the release of the iPad Mini. The stock market had something entirely different to say about the forecast–more like a bitchslap to the tune of nearly $200 decline per share between October and year-end. *Ouch!* Not all of that was based on the market’s rejection of the forecast on iPad Mini sales, though; much of that fall was related to the gross failure of Apple’s map application launched alongside the iPhone 5.

My prediction: I will continue to bemoan the failure to sell some AAPL stock in September 2012, while many of you will continue to buy Apple products. I thank you buyers in advance for trying so hard to boost my spirits and bolster my kids’ college fund in the coming year. Oh, and Google Maps will continue to eat at market share; it’s going to be a while before Apple recovers from its epic map failures. Conveniently, there’s GOOG stock in the kids’ college fund, too.

What about you? Are any of these predictions worth the pixels with which they’re presented?  What do you predict for the year ahead? Do tell.

Tweet about this on Twitter0Share on Reddit0Share on Facebook0Google+0Email to someone

15 Responses to Future Forecast: Roundup of Scattered Probabilities

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15
Emptywheel Twitterverse
emptywheel @steveglista And found based on tips from the alert. @raynetoday
9mreplyretweetfavorite
JimWhiteGNV Just look at all those awesome #Gators superheroes in their capes! http://t.co/W49vzmk9pu
41mreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @JZdziarski Not sure what you're asking but @raynetoday prolly better able to answer, as she's been camping on the Amber Alert site.
56mreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @raynetoday @csoghoian is right tho. Getting the alert actually alerted me to where I could turn off similar alerts.
1hreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @raynetoday All we made sense of at 5-fucking-o-clock was "pick up in some town we've never heard of" but full alert still on MY phone later
1hreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @raynetoday They did include license plate. And how many teal F250s from 2000 are still on the road?
1hreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @raynetoday Not least bc those who slept through the fucking buzzer might have only gotten alert by time she was found.
1hreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @raynetoday It'd be useful if they said, "Sorry we woke the entire state, but it worked bc gas station attendant recognized dad's truck."
1hreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @raynetoday Curious that they didn't say Amber Alert worked or whether they just found father at home or something. Assume you got it too?
1hreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel RT @raynetoday: .@emptywheel Updated news report says Hailey Betts found safe, w/father http://t.co/vj7465uIQk per report ~5hr ago (before …
1hreplyretweetfavorite
bmaz @gideonstrumpet @Popehat What, are y'all trying to become the Arizona of the east?
1hreplyretweetfavorite
emptywheel @csoghoian Just as example, case offered was kid kidnapped, police wanting to know WHO she texted beforehand. So iMessage metadata?
1hreplyretweetfavorite
December 2012
S M T W T F S
« Nov   Jan »
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031