The Israeli Bombing Run in Syria

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Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright have the most comprehensive story, to date, on the mysterious bombing run Israel did in Syria on September 6. They confirm the story that had been floating around–that Israel’s target was a suspected nuclear site, supplied by North Korea. The story is interesting mostly for the exchange of intelligence it portrays. The Israelis first came with intelligence, yet Bush was chill to the attack.

Israel’s decision to attack Syria on Sept. 6, bombing a suspected nuclear site set up in apparent collaboration with North Korea, came after Israel shared intelligence with President Bush this summer indicating that North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, U.S. government sources said.

The Bush administration has not commented on the Israeli raid or theunderlying intelligence. Although the administration was deeplytroubled by Israel’s assertion that North Korea was assisting thenuclear ambitions of a country closely linked with Iran, sources said, the White Houseopted against an immediate response because of concerns it wouldundermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea toabandon its nuclear program.

But then the US corroborated the Israeli intelligence, and the attack went forward.

Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have providedIsrael with some corroboration of the original intelligence beforeIsrael proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in thedead of night to minimize possible casualties, the sources said.

The article raises doubts about the quality of the Israeli intelligence (and who knows whether our intelligence–supposedly used to corroborate the Israeli intelligence–has gotten any better since the Iraq debacle).

The quality of the Israeli intelligence, the extent of North Koreanassistance and the seriousness of the Syrian effort are uncertain,raising the possibility that North Korea was merely unloading items itno longer needed.

Something’s still stinky about this raid. The creepy silence on all parts suggests there was some there there–but perhaps not what Israel claimed it was. I’m actually wondering whether it doesn’t involve a fifth player–perhaps China–that no one is talking about.

 

The 1% Leadership Solution

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scout prime catches Michael Chertoff looking like the self-important incompetent he is. She finds that:

  • Michael Chertoff has a blog. Yes, that’s right folks. And his blog is called How to Kill a City. No wait. I’m sorry. It’s called Leadership Journal.
  • Faced with yet another intractable crisis, the Bush Administration is doing what it always does. Name a Czar!!

Not to worry. There has never been a problem that could not be solved by flinging a good ‘ol Czar or 2 at it…

We have a moral obligation to help the people of Iraq, especially thoseindividuals assisting coalition forces and putting their own lives atrisk. But we also have a responsibility to prevent terrorists frominfiltrating our borders. Our new Iraqi Refugee Czars will make sure wemeet both of these objectives, and that our re-settlement process movesforward swiftly and with our highest priority. We welcome your commentsand appreciate your time. (scout prime’s emphasis)

  • Chertoff is celebrating the success of the US in resettling 940 Iraqis, which works out to be just a teeny fraction of one percent of the 1.8 million Iraqis who are now refugees.

The Bush Administration folks. Where we can look back with longing on the days of a Gentleman’s C.

Diplomatic Convoys

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Two days ago Iraq said it was kicking Eric Prince and his mercenary thugs out of Iraq. Yesterday, Iraq said it would review all the mercenary thugs (and legitimate security entities) to see if they could stay in Iraq. And today, the US announces a curb on land-based civilian travel.

The United States on Tuesday suspended all land travel by U.S. diplomats and other civilian officials throughout Iraq,except in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone. The move follows aweekend incident involving private security guards protecting adiplomatic convoy in which a number of Iraqi civilians were killed.

In a notice sent to Americans in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdadsaid it had taken the step to review the security of its personnel andpossible increased threats to those leaving the Green Zone whileaccompanied by such security details.

"In light of a serious security incident involving a U.S. embassyprotective detail in the Mansour District of Baghdad, the embassy hassuspended official U.S. government civilian ground movements outsidethe International Zone (IZ) and throughout Iraq," the notice said.

Question: Is this an reflection of rising violence against American personnel, as some have suggested? Or is it an attempt to forestall the conflict with the Iraqi government over whether Blackwater and others Read more →

Iraq Will Review All Contractors

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Following on yesterday’s announcement that it was withdrawing the license of Blackwater, Iraq’s government has announced it will review all the security contractors doing business in Iraq.

The Iraqi government said today that it would review the status of all foreign and local security companies working in Iraq after a shooting that left eight Iraqis dead.

I’m as skeptical as I was yesterday that this is going to achieve anything. Larry Johnson lays out the reasons why:

First problem.  Blackwater does not have a license to operate in Iraq and does not need one.  Theyhave a U.S. State Department contract through Diplomatic Security.Instead of using Diplomatic Security officers or hiring new Securityofficers or relying on U.S. military personnel, the Bush Administrationhas contracted with firms like Blackwater, Triple Canopy, and othersfor people capable of conducting personnel security details. StateDepartment is not about to curtail the contract with Blackwater, who istightly wired into Washington. Plus, State Department simply does nothave the bodies available to carry out the security mission.

Second problem. The Iraqi government has zero power to enforce adecision to oust a firm like Blackwater. For starters, Blackwater has abigger air force and more armored vehicles then the Iraqi Army andpolice put together.

Nevertheless, this is Read more →

Security

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If you win the battle to keep the troops in Iraq, but then get forced to withdraw your pet security firm, have you actually won the battle to keep troops in Iraq?

The Iraqi government said Monday that it was pulling the license of anAmerican security firm allegedly involved in the fatal shooting ofcivilians during an attack on a U.S. State Department motorcade in Baghdad.

[snip]

"We have canceled the license of Blackwater and prevented them fromworking all over Iraqi territory. We will also refer those involved toIraqi judicial authorities," Khalaf said.

The spokesman said witness reports pointed to Blackwater involvementbut said the shooting was still under investigation. It was notimmediately clear if the measure against Blackwater was intended to betemporary or permanent.

I suspect this is not the last we’ll hear of this. The US would have a tough time replacing Blackwater immediately for a number of reasons–the contracts have gotten so huge, it’ll be hard to ramp up that quickly (though I suppose someone could just sub-contract Blackwater). So this really does endanger the US’ ability to run an empire in Iraq.

Furthermore, Blackwater is about as wired in as corrupt Republican companies come–the Prince and DeVos families are important money bags for the Read more →

More Inauspiciousness: Your Rent-a-Sheikh Gets Killed

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As many of you have pointed out, the guy I called Bush’s Rent-a-Thuggish-Sheikh last week died in a bomb blast today.

The leader of local Sunni tribes in Iraqwho have joined American and Iraqi forces in fighting extremist Sunnimilitants was killed by a bomb today, Iraqi police officials said,potentially undermining what has become a new thrust of United Statespolicy in the country.

[snip]

It could be a significant setback for American efforts to work more closely with local tribes against Al Qaeda.Recently the council had begun to reach out to other tribes to bringthem into closer cooperation with the American and Iraqi government,and had met recently with southern Shia leaders.Authorities imposed astate of emergency in Anbar Province following his assassination,police officials said. At least one other person escorting him was alsokilled in the explosion.

So Bush’s big debut for Magical September just got further clouded. First the oil compromise collapses on the eve of his presentation. And now the guy Bush was parading around last week as the symbol of great promise in Anbar just got blown to bits. But don’t worry. I’m sure Bush won’t … um … dwell on these depressing details.

Mark Lynch has more on the meaning of Risha’s death, including the speculation that Risha was not killed by Al Qaeda.

Oil Oops

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It is probably inauspicious for Bush that on the eve of his debut in the Magical September extravaganza, the elusive Iraqi oil compromise is falling apart.

A carefully constructed compromise on a draft law governing Iraq’srich oil fields, agreed to in February after months of arduous talksamong Iraqi political groups, appears to have collapsed. The apparentbreakdown comes just as Congress and the White House are struggling tofind evidence that there is progress toward reconciliation and afunctioning government here.

There appears to be two causes for the collapse. First, Bush’s Sunni allies out in Anbar (and elsewhere) would rather embarrass Maliki than solidify a deal that will give them a share of the oil revenues.

But the prime minister’s office believes there is a simpler reason theSunnis abandoned or at least held off on the deal: signing it wouldhave given Mr. Maliki a political success that they did not want him tohave. “I think there is a political reason behind that delay in ordernot to see the Iraqi government achieve the real agreement,” said Sadiqal-Rikabi, a political adviser to Mr. Maliki. Mr. Rikabi was atWednesday’s meeting.

At least that’s what Maliki would like you to think–blame the Sunnis.

And then, of course, there are the independent Read more →

McConnell: I’m a Liar

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Oddly enough I just read this anecdote in Stephen Hayes’ hagiography of Cheney. In an interview with Hayes, Mike McConnell confesses to the childish tactics he used to force CENTCOM to commit, one way or another, whether they thought Saddam would invade Kuwait.

"I’m going to see the chairman [Powell]," [McConnell] told his colleagues. "I went up to his office on the second floor…. So I went up to the second floor and went into the executive assistant’s office, just outside the chairman’s office. There’s a little peephole–you can look in to see if he’s busy so you don’t interrupt him, that sort of thing. So I looked in and he was sitting at his desk. I came out and I walked down the hall and had a Coke and went back down. And I said: "I’ve seen the chairman and here’s what we’re going to do." I never said that I’d talked to the chairman. "I’ve seen the chairman."

Our Director of National Intelligence, you see, is the kind of man who plays the old game you did as a five year old: "I saw mom and you’re in deep trouble," I used to tell my brothers. Only, by the time Read more →

Jim Webb Channels emptywheel

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You think the former Secretary of the Navy keeps close ties with Navy officers? Or is Jim Webb calling on Carl Levin to ask Admiral Fallon to testify to the Armed Service Committee because he, like me, thinks Fallon will have a different perspective to offer?

WEBB: [T]here’s something of a kabuki going on right now.You know, the Petraeus report was brought in. On the one hand they’recalling it independent; on the other, General Petraeus and AmbassadorCrocker, from my understanding, gave a one-hour exclusive interview toFox News after their first day of testimony. […]

So it was a very narrow and focused two days of hearings…weneed to hear from people like Admiral Fallon and others to get a senseof how the region is in play. …  He was, by many accounts, questioning keeping these troop levels this high. […]

So I’m going to be recommending to Senator Levin that we get Admiral Fallon in and get his views on the region.

Just remember to ask Admiral Fallon if winning the Iraq War but ruining our military will make us safer, Senator Webb. I have a feeling that Fallon, unlike Petraeus, will have a pretty definite answer.

Tribute

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Omar Mora and Yance Gray have died in Iraq, just weeks after they contributed to a powerful op-ed in the NYT. In tribute to their lives, I think it only appropriate to return to their op-ed, which offers a far more honest assessment of progress in Iraq than the Petraeus and Crocker dog-and-pony show. Mora, Gray, and their colleagues call for an assessment of progress in Iraq from the perspective of Iraqi civilians, not from an American-centered perspective.

Given the situation, it is important not to assess security from anAmerican-centered perspective. The ability of, say, American observersto safely walk down the streets of formerly violent towns is not aresounding indicator of security. What matters is the experience of thelocal citizenry and the future of our counterinsurgency. When we takethis view, we see that a vast majority of Iraqis feel increasinglyinsecure and view us as an occupation force that has failed to producenormalcy after four years and is increasingly unlikely to do so as wecontinue to arm each warring side.

They point out that the foundation of recent successes in Anbar Province–alliances with Sunni tribes–does not guarantee enduring loyalty.

However, while creating proxies is essential in winning acounterinsurgency, it requires that the proxies Read more →

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