Aghanistan

Obama Still Clinging to 352,000 Afghan National Security Force Size Myth

Before the outbreak of green on blue killings that eventually led to a significant interruption in the training of Afghan security forces last September, it was impossible to read a statement from the US military or NATO regarding future plans without encountering a reference to a required 352,000 force size for combined Afghan National Security Forces. It was our training of the ANSF that was touted as our primary reason for remaining in Afghanistan because we need those trained troops available to take over security responsibility as we withdraw. I have been insisting since the interruption that it will be impossible to continue to claim that a functional ANSF force size of 352,000 can be achieved, as the known high rate of attrition continued during the training interruption. No new troop size prediction has emerged, but it was significant to me that references to the 352,000 force size claim had seemed to disappear.

Last night, President Barack Obama announced in his State of the Union address that he intends to withdraw about half the troops now in Afghanistan within the next twelve months, but he made no direct reference ANSF force size. Here are the three short paragraphs on Afghanistan in the speech as found in the transcript of his address:

Tonight, we stand united in saluting the troops and civilians who sacrifice every day to protect us.  Because of them, we can say with confidence that America will complete its mission in Afghanistan and achieve our objective of defeating the core of al Qaeda.  (Applause.)

Already, we have brought home 33,000 of our brave servicemen and women.  This spring, our forces will move into a support role, while Afghan security forces take the lead.  Tonight, I can announce that over the next year, another 34,000 American troops will come home from Afghanistan.  This drawdown will continue and by the end of next year, our war in Afghanistan will be over.  (Applause.)

Beyond 2014, America’s commitment to a unified and sovereign Afghanistan will endure, but the nature of our commitment will change. We’re negotiating an agreement with the Afghan government that focuses on two missions — training and equipping Afghan forces so that the country does not again slip into chaos, and counterterrorism efforts that allow us to pursue the remnants of al Qaeda and their affiliates.

Despite the specific force numbers cited with respect to US forces, Obama merely mentions “Afghan security forces” without telling us how many of them there will be. Resorting to the more detailed Afghanistan Fact Sheet released last night by the White House, however, shows that Obama still clings to the myth that there are 352,000 members of the ANSF. The Fact Sheet even goes to so far as to claim that this force level will be maintained for the next three years. I don’t believe I have seen this three year claim before: Continue reading

Emptywheel Twitterverse
JimWhiteGNV .@SangerNYT Shouldn't you have noted Heinonen's UANI role in today's front page article? https://t.co/utCwfI5AyE
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emptywheel @ncardozo Yeah, I don't ACTUALLY find it funny at all but sometimes I like to tweak coastal elites. Plus, MI is angling to take Ag role.
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emptywheel You folks getting snow would have a lot more fun w/it if you lorded it over the Californians who can't have nice things like precipitation.
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emptywheel RT @JimWhiteGNV: Heinonen Moves Deceptive Anti-Iran Campaign from Washington Post Opinion Page to New York Times News Page https://t.co/ut
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JimWhiteGNV Why does Olli Heinonen never disclose his UANI role when spouting his strongest anti-Iran propaganda? https://t.co/utCwfI5AyE @ggreenwald
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JimWhiteGNV Heinonen Moves Deceptive Anti-Iran Campaign from Washington Post Opinion Page to New York Times News Page https://t.co/utCwfI5AyE
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emptywheel What's remarkable abt this corn-seed-as-nat-sec case is not that FISA agreed they were FoPo, but that FBI went to trouble of getting one.
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JimWhiteGNV RT @tparsi: Noah Feldman: It's difficult to escape conclusion that UANI is a front for US or other intel http://t.co/i2T68vTjyq @NoahRFeldm
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emptywheel @trevortimm Yeah, think that was an add after I wrote the piece. Serves exact same purpose tho @ncardozo @kurtopsahl @legind
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JimWhiteGNV RT @APDiploWriter: BAGHDAD (AP) — #Iran Guard says US drone killed 2 of its advisers in #Iraq; #US says it only struck militants.
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bmaz RT @Popehat: .@kcjohnson9 on reforms to campus sexual assault rules. Getting colleges out entirely would be a good idea-via @bmaz http://t…
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March 2015
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