aircraft carrier video

No Straight Talk, Only Posturing Between US, Iran on Strait of Hormuz

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8yG5G2Kwt0[/youtube]

Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are getting a lot of play in the press the past few days. As the ten days of naval war games for Iran that began on Saturday have continued, Iran’s bluster has gotten stronger, as have the US responses.

Ironically, Iran’s stated purpose when it began the war games included the desire to “convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries” and yet, as can be seen in the video here, Iranian authorities are now saying that should their ability to export oil be curtailed through sanctions put in place by the US and European allies, they would close down the Strait of Hormuz, preventing exports by other countries in the region.

The impact of a real closure would be huge. Many of the numbers involved can be gleaned from this Bloomberg article published this morning. Iran’s oil exports amount to 3.6 million barrels a day, which means Iran only accounts for 23% of the 15.5 million barrels a day that pass through the Strait. It is believed that Saudi Arabia could produce an extra 2.5 million barrels a day in the event of sanctions halting Iran’s supply, and up to 200,000 more barrels a day could come from other countries in the region, so about 75% of Iran’s output probably could be replaced quickly.

However, with the Strait closed, the entire 15.5 million barrels a day could be disrupted. There is a pipeline being built by the United Arab Emirates that the Bloomberg article says will be ready “soon” and could bypass the Strait with 1.4 to 1.8 million barrels a day, but this would be only a very small fraction of the lost supply.

Even though such a closure would be seen as a direct response to the US and its European allies, the impact on China should not be overlooked. The CIA world factbook informs us that the US imports 10.3 million barrels a day and the EU imports 8.6 million, but China is next in line at 4.8 million barrels a day.  How would China respond to such a huge disruption of their supply, especially if it comes about through a series of disagreements where they have not been included in the discourse? Continue reading

Emptywheel Twitterverse
emptywheel @Krhawkins5 And THAT partly depends on whether McConnell loses, IMVHO. @John_Hudson
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emptywheel @John_Hudson I think FAR more interesting Q is what kind of Gang of Four leaker Burr will be. Might not be as bad as Rogers, @Krhawkins5
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emptywheel @John_Hudson Unlike, say, Roberts' "I can think of 10 reasons not to oversee torture," Burr's self-interested enuf to balk @Krhawkins5
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emptywheel @John_Hudson I think that's a load of manure. Who was first to slam CIA under Bush? Hoekstra, over missionary shootdown. @Krhawkins5
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emptywheel "Rather than revealing invasion Whisper users’ privacy, info handover reflects how useless some big data analysis is" http://t.co/05OUNdrv9x
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emptywheel "Should programming that is critical of Israel on some campuses endanger all funding for international education? " http://t.co/7BG8gg6HJr
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emptywheel “Trying to heal the legal system, if that doesn’t sound too trite, I think does motivate me.” http://t.co/oHevnUA76v
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emptywheel @onekade Was waiting for that! (Slow on the draw, are you!)
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emptywheel @onekade Jesus was killed by police you know. Pretty sure they'd even call him a terrorist in this day and age.
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emptywheel @Krhawkins5 Brady? Pshaw. Brady's quaint and outmoded even for criminal defendants. Just ask Ted Stevens.
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emptywheel National news report reports, again, that brave nurse rode a bike, in defiance of cowardly politicians.
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emptywheel @digby56 Except they didn't charge him w/anything CLOSE to what Muslim'd be charged w. Real explosives usu charged lighter than FBI fakes
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