aircraft carrier video

No Straight Talk, Only Posturing Between US, Iran on Strait of Hormuz

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8yG5G2Kwt0[/youtube]

Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are getting a lot of play in the press the past few days. As the ten days of naval war games for Iran that began on Saturday have continued, Iran’s bluster has gotten stronger, as have the US responses.

Ironically, Iran’s stated purpose when it began the war games included the desire to “convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries” and yet, as can be seen in the video here, Iranian authorities are now saying that should their ability to export oil be curtailed through sanctions put in place by the US and European allies, they would close down the Strait of Hormuz, preventing exports by other countries in the region.

The impact of a real closure would be huge. Many of the numbers involved can be gleaned from this Bloomberg article published this morning. Iran’s oil exports amount to 3.6 million barrels a day, which means Iran only accounts for 23% of the 15.5 million barrels a day that pass through the Strait. It is believed that Saudi Arabia could produce an extra 2.5 million barrels a day in the event of sanctions halting Iran’s supply, and up to 200,000 more barrels a day could come from other countries in the region, so about 75% of Iran’s output probably could be replaced quickly.

However, with the Strait closed, the entire 15.5 million barrels a day could be disrupted. There is a pipeline being built by the United Arab Emirates that the Bloomberg article says will be ready “soon” and could bypass the Strait with 1.4 to 1.8 million barrels a day, but this would be only a very small fraction of the lost supply.

Even though such a closure would be seen as a direct response to the US and its European allies, the impact on China should not be overlooked. The CIA world factbook informs us that the US imports 10.3 million barrels a day and the EU imports 8.6 million, but China is next in line at 4.8 million barrels a day.  How would China respond to such a huge disruption of their supply, especially if it comes about through a series of disagreements where they have not been included in the discourse? Continue reading

Emptywheel Twitterverse
emptywheel @benjaminwittes Once you consider it public good Whitehouse q could be flipped on head & ask if those who DON'T provide it liable?
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emptywheel @benjaminwittes Sure, but it's something Whitehouse has not ceded to publicly. Has to be part of calculation. @csoghoian
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emptywheel @benjaminwittes Neither would Apple. If terrorist is using iCloud, they do, but if not, it's their provider (AT&T) who has it @csoghoian
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emptywheel @benjaminwittes I'm curious why in your treatment of encryption you don't account for public good of it (as Chertoff oped did)? @csoghoian
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bmaz RT @ddayen: #Bernie2016 event was pretty darn interesting tonight. Went to my local one down the street to observe. Felt like a new thing.
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bmaz @Ali_Gharib It IS unwatchable, and has been for a very long time, if not always. But, then, much of MSNBC is unwatchable.
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bmaz @jackgillum @AP @etuckerAP Good work guys.
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emptywheel RT @Ali_H_Soufan: Do you recall 1st group of US trained rebels recently entered into Syria from Turkey? Well, they have been kidnapped alle…
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emptywheel RT @BFriedmanDC: Palmer's club, Safari Club International, donates thousands to GOP candidates. #CecilTheLion http://t.co/ZWgR8aIu9u http:/…
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emptywheel @BaFana3 The "America's bad, terror-supporting allies," is easy. Anyone who made a big enough stink abt Iran "peace" deal gets free bombs.
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bmaz RT @nancyleong: Cops have taser, pepper spray, baton, other tools for self defense. If the gun is step one, there's no step two. #SamDubose
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emptywheel @pastordan No, I didn't. Yick. Grouchy.
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