aircraft carrier video

No Straight Talk, Only Posturing Between US, Iran on Strait of Hormuz

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8yG5G2Kwt0[/youtube]

Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are getting a lot of play in the press the past few days. As the ten days of naval war games for Iran that began on Saturday have continued, Iran’s bluster has gotten stronger, as have the US responses.

Ironically, Iran’s stated purpose when it began the war games included the desire to “convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries” and yet, as can be seen in the video here, Iranian authorities are now saying that should their ability to export oil be curtailed through sanctions put in place by the US and European allies, they would close down the Strait of Hormuz, preventing exports by other countries in the region.

The impact of a real closure would be huge. Many of the numbers involved can be gleaned from this Bloomberg article published this morning. Iran’s oil exports amount to 3.6 million barrels a day, which means Iran only accounts for 23% of the 15.5 million barrels a day that pass through the Strait. It is believed that Saudi Arabia could produce an extra 2.5 million barrels a day in the event of sanctions halting Iran’s supply, and up to 200,000 more barrels a day could come from other countries in the region, so about 75% of Iran’s output probably could be replaced quickly.

However, with the Strait closed, the entire 15.5 million barrels a day could be disrupted. There is a pipeline being built by the United Arab Emirates that the Bloomberg article says will be ready “soon” and could bypass the Strait with 1.4 to 1.8 million barrels a day, but this would be only a very small fraction of the lost supply.

Even though such a closure would be seen as a direct response to the US and its European allies, the impact on China should not be overlooked. The CIA world factbook informs us that the US imports 10.3 million barrels a day and the EU imports 8.6 million, but China is next in line at 4.8 million barrels a day.  How would China respond to such a huge disruption of their supply, especially if it comes about through a series of disagreements where they have not been included in the discourse? Continue reading

Emptywheel Twitterverse
emptywheel I was in Denali park in 1991. Everyone, especially park staff, called the mountain Denali. Blame Poppy Bush.
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emptywheel Rode to the town Hilhof Dairy is in today--it's pretty. Would a bike pilgrimage to a dairy be nuts?
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JimWhiteGNV Why did Obama rename a mountain after an SUV?
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emptywheel @KagroX At least he didn't rename it Mount Shell
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emptywheel Really hoping Rove tweets abt Denali. It's the kind of thing that might genuinely irk him.
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emptywheel @TeresaKopec I do think that's why China can crash w/o causing general malaise. For almost all people gas price more important to budget
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JimWhiteGNV RT @GatorsChris: “@GatorsChris: Final: No. 8 #Gators 3, No. 1 FSU 2.”
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bmaz And, yet, that was not Snowden's plan, the US forced him into it. Schindler still relentlessly dishonest on subject. https://t.co/z5N6qPCmoE
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bmaz @jaketapper Excellent interview. Refreshing to see a candidate actually answer your questions. You should see how people respond at rallies.
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emptywheel @B_D_Silver @BenjySarlin could we by ave legalzed pot inside our walls? Pay no taxes?
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emptywheel @RT4_Chicago @charlie_savage found it not me. But he's off in Europe being civilized I think.
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