aircraft carrier video

No Straight Talk, Only Posturing Between US, Iran on Strait of Hormuz

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8yG5G2Kwt0[/youtube]

Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are getting a lot of play in the press the past few days. As the ten days of naval war games for Iran that began on Saturday have continued, Iran’s bluster has gotten stronger, as have the US responses.

Ironically, Iran’s stated purpose when it began the war games included the desire to “convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries” and yet, as can be seen in the video here, Iranian authorities are now saying that should their ability to export oil be curtailed through sanctions put in place by the US and European allies, they would close down the Strait of Hormuz, preventing exports by other countries in the region.

The impact of a real closure would be huge. Many of the numbers involved can be gleaned from this Bloomberg article published this morning. Iran’s oil exports amount to 3.6 million barrels a day, which means Iran only accounts for 23% of the 15.5 million barrels a day that pass through the Strait. It is believed that Saudi Arabia could produce an extra 2.5 million barrels a day in the event of sanctions halting Iran’s supply, and up to 200,000 more barrels a day could come from other countries in the region, so about 75% of Iran’s output probably could be replaced quickly.

However, with the Strait closed, the entire 15.5 million barrels a day could be disrupted. There is a pipeline being built by the United Arab Emirates that the Bloomberg article says will be ready “soon” and could bypass the Strait with 1.4 to 1.8 million barrels a day, but this would be only a very small fraction of the lost supply.

Even though such a closure would be seen as a direct response to the US and its European allies, the impact on China should not be overlooked. The CIA world factbook informs us that the US imports 10.3 million barrels a day and the EU imports 8.6 million, but China is next in line at 4.8 million barrels a day.  How would China respond to such a huge disruption of their supply, especially if it comes about through a series of disagreements where they have not been included in the discourse? Continue reading

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bmaz The night the NCAA became indistinguishable from, if it wasn't already, craven self serving malignancy of NFL. Congrats NCAA you've arrived!
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bmaz RT @John_de_Vashon: As always the core @NCAA narative must prevail. #TheFixIsIn #NCAA MT @bmaz: Bullshit play by KY and crapass call by the…
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bmaz I HATE Notre Dame, and, yet, they got completely ripped off by the refereeing. What a #joke
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bmaz @Gaius_Publius @MasaccioEW @ChrisInParis ND got fucking ripped off on contact. What a crock of shit. You KNOW I do not say that lightly.
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bmaz What a crock of dung. If the roles had been reversed had been reversed, ND would have never gotten the cheesy calls KY did. #FOUL
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bmaz Bullshit play by KY and crapass call by the refs
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emptywheel @jhamby Also think Amber Alert site went down sometime today after alert per @RayneToday @eric_analytics @chockenberry @SwiftOnSecurity
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bmaz Just saying, some men I know may have more than the luck of the Irish. Craft beers for all!
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emptywheel @jhamby But it included license plate, was for 15 year old teal F250. Even in MI can't be many of those left @chockenberry @SwiftOnSecurity
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emptywheel @jhamby This MI one this morning was statewide too (or at least lower peninsula), I think, from MSP. @chockenberry @SwiftOnSecurity
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bmaz @Gaius_Publius @MasaccioEW @ChrisInParis Wisconsin is also a classy and easy team to root for.
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bmaz @Gaius_Publius @MasaccioEW @ChrisInParis Hey AZ was more than capable of winning that game. The did NOT. Hat's off to Badgers; they're good.
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