I was one of the first to note that Palin’s actions suggested she was running for President in 2012 rather than VP in 2008. But that doesn’t mean I think she’d be successful. Here are my thoughts why I’m not all that worried about a Palin juggernaut in 2012.

I understand why the right has seized on Palin with such enthusiasm. They were successful with Bush because he allowed them to unify ideologically contradictory stances. Neocon imperialism and its associated crony defense capitalism is not a fiscally conservative position. Moreover, the promise of Compassionate Conservatism could only appease the charitable instincts of a lot of Conservative Christians so long. Mostly, though, Bush was only able to sustain these irreconcilable positions for five years or so by being an empty cipher–appealing to Neocons, fiscal conservatives, and Christian Conservatives–with the force of personality, thereby hiding the reality that at least one of those three groups (as it happened, fiscal conservatives and to a lesser degree, Christian Conservatives) would be ignored.

Palin is similar, only with her, the Republicans get to further obscure the emptiness of her positions with sex appeal. All the calls on Palin to lead the Republicans out of the apparent disaster they’re about to undergo are premised on the hope that she can wink and demagogue her way out of the contradictions to the claims they make.

But such hopes for Palin’s leadership are most likely to fail.

To understand why, consider first of all the two people who, in 2004, seemed poised to inherit George Bush’s mantle: Bill Frist and George Allen. Because you can no longer hide corruption, incompetence, and ugly racism, they were completely forgotten long before the primaries started. Conditions suggest that Palin’s going to meet a similar–if not worse–fate. 

That’s true, first of all, because the exposure of the campaign will bring some unanticipated setbacks to her. The Alaska legislature, for example, will return to consider what to do about the legislative finding that Palin abused her power. Significantly, they may well do so after she loses badly and after Republicans lose a long-held Republican Senate seat to yet more abuse of power; with each day, the reasons Alaskan Republicans would want to protect Palin grow weaker. Then there’s the Personnel Board investigation, that looks like it will be way more serious–and critical–than Palin ever planned it would be. Just as potentially damaging to Palin, there are the other abuses of power: the free trips for her kids and the per diems which will be investigated and may well be taxed if not elevated into even bigger ethics problems. Just as likely, Palin may be taxed for her use of the $150,000 wardrobe. (Imagine Palin getting a $30,000 tax bill as her reward for running for VP!) The Palins are likely to be the target of a suit by Mike Wooten’s union if not Wooten himself and I wouldn’t be surprised if Wooten sought custody of his kids.  And then there’s the possibility that further investigation of their house will reveal it was a big scam Sarah pulled on the city of Wasilla, or that the emails she has stalled on releasing will include other shockers. In short, Sarah has merely succeeded in postponing most of the repercussions that will come from the increased scrutiny until after the election–and it is by no means clear that she will escape unharmed. At the very least, her claim to be a reformer in Alaska won’t fare well.

Then there’s the fact that she’s got at least two more years as governor before 2012–and there is no evidence that she is any more competent at governing than George Bush. So long as oil prices remain where they are, she’s going to have a difficult time meeting the increased needs of an inflation-wracked Alaska. She almost certainly will continue to break her promises on spending cuts. And the only way she will be able to deliver on her thus far premature promise of a natural gas pipeline project is if she gets cozy with the oil companies she likes to claim she has taken on. So the three claims on which she ran this time–that she was a fiscal conservative, that she had taken on the oil companies and succeeded in "building" a pipeline, and that she is a reformer–will no longer be operative in 2012.

Finally, there’s the fact that she is unliked by a majority of the country. Her favorability ratings are negative in most polls. She was persistently accused–even by the media–of being a shameless liar. And with WardrobeGate and YouTubes of her appearances, she is a national laughingstock. Sure, Republicans might ignore her unpopularity. The Neocons and Christianist Industry leaders who would like to make a project of her may convince the party to embrace her anyway (indeed, that seems to be the goal of the post-election frenzy they’ve got planned). But they’re fighting an up-hill battle because he brand is already ruined. I hope they spend a lot of energy investing in that brand rather than focusing on–say–Bobby Jindal or Charlie Crist. But I suspect they’re committed to doing so because she excites them sexually, and not out of any rational assessment of whether she’s the person to lead the party out of minority status. 

So, in spite of all the frenzy surrounding Sarah right now, I doubt she’ll be leading the party in four years. I’ll do a follow-up on where I think they’ll end up going. But for now, at least, Palin’s concerns have to be on the immediate future, not four years from now.

Nielsen reports that McCain is surging his advertising dollars in "swing states" (for the most part, states formerly known as "red").

Yesterday Sen. John McCain boosted his TV advertising units in seven key swing states — Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, closing the gap between his advertising and Sen. Barack Obama’s.

On Sunday, Oct. 26, McCain ran just 331 TV ad units in those seven states — 308% fewer than the 1,350 ad units Obama ran that day.  

But on Monday, Obama’s lead in these key battleground states shrank to 113% — or a margin of 1,528 ad units, after McCain’s campaign increased the number of TV ad units it ran in those states by 308%, to 1,353 units.

I guess McCain has finally figured out that he needs to win a few more Bush states to have a prayer of winning this race.

But here’s the thing. Check out the number of people who have already voted in CO, FL, GA, OH, and VA (with the exception of VA and GA, totals are through yesterday):

CO: 813,948 people–or 37.9% of 2004’s total

FL: 2,063,157 people–or 27% of 2004’s total

GA: 1,206,891 people as of today–or 36.4% of 2004’s total

OH: 309,041 between Cuyahoga and Franklin counties–or 25.3% of 2004’s totals in those two counties

VA: 50,350 in Fairfax county as of Friday–10.9% of 2004’s total in that county

So McCain has finally decided to get serious about advertising to these states–after 4.5 million people have already voted.

I think Robert Draper is a better blogger than journalist. Check out this passage from his GQ blog, which has none of the dull finish of his NYT piece on the McCain campaign, but a so much more interesting bite (h/t WT).

I’ve heard from one well-placed source that McCain has snubbed [Palin] on one long bus ride aboard the Straight Talk Express, to the embarrassment of those sitting nearby. It has surely been implied to the governor that she should be eternally grateful to have been plucked from obscurity. And yet the high water mark of John McCain’s campaign for the presidency unquestionably began on September 3, when Palin gave her nomination speech—and ended precisely twelve days later, when McCain went off-script—I have that on the authority of the person who participated in the writing of said script—and told an audience that he still believed the fundamentals of the economy were strong.

McCain being an asshole to Palin? Check. McCain demanding her eternal gratitude for the huge favor he did her by turning her into a national laughingstock? Check. McCain going off-message when he made one of the biggest fuck-ups of this campaign? Check.

Three sentences, and each of them offering a nugget as delightful as the best line from his NYT piece.

“For better or for worse, our campaign has been fought from tactic to tactic,” one senior adviser glumly acknowledged to me in early October, just after Schmidt received authorization from McCain to unleash a new wave of ads attacking Obama’s character.

That said, Draper seems to think Palin got a bum rap with this deal. Me? I think McCain and Palin deserve each other. 

Michigan’s HAVA rules absolutely suck for college students. They require that first time voters vote in person. This leaves college students who live away from home two options: either re-register at their college address (and change their driver’s license, since both addresses must match) or drive across the state to vote at home. Each year, the Democrats in Washtenaw County try to re-register thousands of students at University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University. Nevertheless, every year I’ve worked the polls I’ve seen a would-be first-time voter crushed when she discovered she couldn’t vote at her local precinct, and didn’t have the time (or the car) to drive home to cast a vote where she was registered.

This year, MI’s county clerks are trying to make it easier for students to apply for absentee ballots by allowing them to go to the Secretary of State office (basically the DMV office) near their college, show ID, and apply for an absentee ballot in person. In other words, a student at UM would go to our Secretary of State’s office, show ID, and get an absentee ballot sent from the clerk in Traverse City.

Only MI’s crappy AG and gubernatorial wannabe, Mike Cox, wants to prevent the clerks offices from doing this.

So, as a way to dramatize the plight of college students and to pressure Cox not to formally rule against this practice, Macomb County Clerk Carmella Sabaugh (who was the Democratic nominee to be Secretary of State in 2006) is driving to western Michigan today to drive three students registered in her county to the local Secretary of State Office so they can show ID and apply for an absentee ballot.

Macomb County Clerk / Register of Deeds Carmella Sabaugh (D-Warren) will drive 170 miles this afternoon to make sure Krysta Kornack of Warren and Jeanne and Katie Oxendine of Sterling Heights will not be prevented from voting.  Kornack, a student at Grand Valley State University in Allendale, registered to vote on campus, and applied for an absent voter ballot.  But her request was denied by her local clerk in accordance with Michigan law because she did not show a photo ID when she registered to vote.  Kornack then went to the Ottawa County Clerk, the nearest county clerk office, showed photo ID, received an “In Person ID Verification” and applied again for an absent voter ballot. 

But Kornack’s second request for an absent voter ballot was put at risk last week when the Michigan Senate Majority Leader asked the Attorney General to stop first-time voters, whose photo IDs were verified by county clerks, from getting absent voter ballots. 

Jeanne and Katie Oxendine attend Hope College and want to cast an absent voter ballot because they will not be able to return home to vote.  Jeanne registered to vote by mail, but showed her photo ID at the Ottawa County Clerk’s office.  Katie registered to vote in person at a Secretary of State office.

The Attorney General issued an “informational letter” arguing the photo ID verifications performed by county clerks are invalid.  The letter puts him at odds with the Michigan Secretary of State and 65 of the state’s 83 county clerks.  The large group of bipartisan county clerks started a cross deputization program to verify photo IDs of first-time voters.  The program applies equally across the state because any county clerk could participate at no cost. 

“Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land deserves credit for standing up to the Attorney General, and Ottawa County Clerk Daniel Krueger deserves credit for leading the county clerk effort,” said Sabaugh. “The Attorney General should not be making it harder for decent citizens to vote.” 

“Geography should not impair the right to vote,” said Daniel Krueger, Ottawa County Clerk (R-Holland Twp.)  “My hope is that the Attorney General will understand the desire young people have to participate in the greatest process our country has and allow our cross deputization process to be an incentive to voters by allowing our photo ID verification process to continue.” 

[snip] 

Sabaugh agrees with Saginaw County Clerk Sue Kaltenbach who said, “Unless we’re told to actually cease and desist, we’ll continue.” 

Sabaugh and Krueger will meet Kornack at the Grand Valley State University Kirkhof Center at 3:30 pm this afternoon.  They will then meet the Oxendine’s at Hope College DeWitt Center a little after 4 pm, and drive the students to the nearest Secretary of State branch office in Holland where the students will show a photo ID to further satisfy the “in person” and photo ID requirements.  (The nearest Secretary of State office to the Grand Valley Allendale campus is eight miles away.) 

Sabaugh hopes her trip will focus public attention on this issue and help convince the Attorney General not to issue a formal opinion. “Until the Michigan Attorney General says he won’t invalidate the photo ID verifications of students, first-time student voters who want an absent voter ballot should show a photo ID at a Secretary of State office,” said Sabaugh.

This is a superb stunt for several reasons: Sabaugh has some prominence from her state-wide race in 2006. She serves a largely Republican County and–since Hope College is a pretty conservative Christian school–she’s probably helping at least two Republicans vote. 

And most of all, with the length of her drive, she’s illustrating the lengths to which Cox is trying to force college students to go if they want to vote.

John McCain has called on Toobz Stevens to resign from the Senate.

Yesterday, Senator Ted Stevens was found guilty of corruption. It is a sign of the health of our democracy that the people continue to hold their representatives to account for improper or illegal conduct, but this verdict is also a sign of the corruption and insider-dealing that has become so pervasive in our nation’s capital.

It is clear that Senator Stevens has broken his trust with the people and that he should now step down. I hope that my colleagues in the Senate will be spurred by these events to redouble their efforts to end this kind of corruption once and for all.

Note how McCain stresses that Stevens was found guilty of insider-dealing. But that’s not correct. Rather, Stevens was convicted of not declaring gifts on his Senate Financial Disclosure Forms. From Toobz’ indictment:

Beginning in or about May 1999, and continuing to in or about August, 2007, in the District of Columbia and elsewhere, in a matter within the jurisdiction of the legislative branch of the United States Government and subject to the legislative function exception, STEVENS, while a sitting United States Senator, knowingly and willfully engaged in a scheme to conceal a material fact, that is, his continuing receipt of hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of things of value from a private corporation and its chief executive officer by, among other things, failing to report them, as was required, on STEVENS’ required yearly Financial Disclosure Forms.

[snip]

STEVENS knew the requirements of the Financial Disclosure Forms, and knowingly and intentionally sought to conceal and cover up his receipt of things of value by filing Financial Disclosure Forms that contained false statements and omissions concerning STEVENS’ receipt of these things of value.

All in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1001(a)(1) and (c)(1) and (2).

It’s funny McCain should make that mistake, given that he himself appears to be guilty of similar omissions in his Senate Financial Disclosure Form. Despite public reports of McCain gambling–and, at times, winning–large sums, he has never reported his gambling winnings on his Senate Financial Disclosure Forms.

Given McCain’s call on Ted Stevens to do the right thing, isn’t it time McCain himself avoid the crimes Stevens just got convicted of?

Six days left in a campaign that feels like it has been going on for years; why would Barack Obama want to expend any of his fleeting time remaining going to Arizona, his opponent’s home state?

Because you play the game to win the game. That is why. And Senator Obama can win Arizona.

As my fellow contributors in the FDL collective will attest, I have been telling people for a long time that Arizona was a heck of a lot closer than they thought.

Guess what? Yep, Obama does indeed have a real shot, and suddenly a lot of people nationally have caught on to that fact. Pollster.com. DKos. Chuck Todd and MSNBC. And, best of all if you know Arizona politics over the last three plus decades or so, Bruce Merrill and the Cronkite8 poll. Dr. Merrill is the gold standard in Arizona polling, and he has a phenomenal record for accuracy.

The race here is yours to win Mr. Obama. But, it can go either way, it depends on you. If you would take just a brief amount of time, between now and next Tuesday, to drop into Phoenix for a quick rally, you can seal the deal. I can tell you with every ounce of conviction in my life; if you come, you likely win. The wave of victory is here, it just needs your personal final push.

Here is what you would gain:

• The ten precious electoral votes belonging to Arizona.

• A gigantic boost in excitement, motivation and energy in Arizona, the Southwest and among critical Hispanic voters. You can set the tone in this region for years to come with a victory this year in Arizona. Think of the future too.

• Coattails that take Arizona Democratic Congressional incumbents, as well as challengers Bob Lord and Ann Kirkpatrick, to victory.

• With a victory of Bob Lord over John Shaddegg, you substantially weaken conservative GOP House Leadership, making your ability to govern after inauguration a lot easier.

• Andrew Thomas (Maricopa County Attorney) and Joe Arpaio (Maricopa County Sheriff), a two man tag team that are a literal plague on the civil rights of all citizens here can be defeated with the push and excitement your appearance would generate. You have no idea how bad they are, and what their defeat would mean. You have fought this type of debasement of civil rights your entire life, this battle alone here is worthy of your time. Tim Nelson and Dan Saban can restore fairness and the rule of law here with your help.

• Most important of all, you unequivocally cement the hard mandate you will need to govern this country and accomplish the difficult policy changes necessary to lead us out of the darkness we currently face. Nothing will set your power in stone more than beating John McCain in his own backyard, and a historically conservative one at that. For so long, Democrats have been content to eke out wins and govern by a thread. Set the tone, send a message, instill the killer instinct, seize the day and seal the deal. Show the party how it is going to be done from here on out.

Senator Obama, it is all here for you. Come to Arizona; it is the right thing for you, and it is the right thing for us. Denver has nothing on Phoenix; if you come, we will be there just like they were in Denver, and we will all reap the spectacular, and once in a lifetime, benefits. It is all here waiting for you, but it will take your appearance.

Step up to greatness now. Seize the day; claim the ultimate mandate. Come to Arizona!

Sarah Palin on her mentor Uncle Toobz’ felony conviction:

"This is a sad day for Alaska and a sad day for Senator Stevens and his family," she said on the tarmac at Richmond International Airport. "The verdict shines a light on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight, and that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service.

"As Governor of the State of Alaska, I will carefully now monitor the situation and I’ll take any appropriate action as needed. In the meantime, I ask the people of Alaska to join me in respecting the workings of our judicial system and I’m confident that Senator Stevens from this point on will do the right thing for the people of Alaska," she also said. [my emphasis]

Sounds to me like the purportedly corruption-fighting governor is vouching that Toobz will be on his best behavior going forward, and Alaskans should all trust Sarah to keep him on the straight and narrow.

I can’t help but wonder whether Sarah is thinking about the fact that her own running mate failed to disclose his gambling winnings on his Senate disclosure forms, that she herself was probably saved from an illegal $150,000 gift (in the form of Neiman Marcus togs) by the embarrassment of having it exposed, and that she was recently found to have her own corruption problems in using state government to achieve her own personal vendettas. Oh, and don’t forget the free house she and Todd may have gotten, courtesy of the contractors who built the over-budget hockey rink in Wasilla. 

After all, when you and your running mate are at risk of being busted for the same kinds of things Uncle Toobz got busted for, forgiveness going forward must look awfully smart. 

Where is Howard Cosell when you need him? The Hulk has been smashed by a guilty verdict on all counts in his corruption trial. This is good news for all those that have fought Stevens, Alaskan corruption (Palin is not really one of them either), and the GOP lions that have laid waste to the United States Senate for so long. From The Hill:

Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Senate Republican in history and patriarch of Alaska politics, was found guilty of all seven felony charges for making false statements.

The verdict could spell the end of a 40-year Senate career for a man who rose to be one of the most dominant figures in the upper chamber and who helped transform Alaska in its 50 years of statehood. The verdict was reached after the jury deliberated since Wednesday and found the 84-year-old senator guilty of failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts from Bill Allen, the former head of Veco Corp., and other friends.

Many have been convinced, since the trial started, that the prosecution was intentionally trying to dump the case. Yeah boy, the prosecution tried so hard to tank this trial that they convicted Stevens of all counts.

People may take joy in the verdict if they wish; personally I will take none. My personal distaste for Stevens and his politics, and desire to win his seat, is no match for my desire to have the rule of law followed, due process guaranteed to every defendant, and an honest prosecution with full disclosure and fairness shown to the defendant. Even Ted Stevens. All of those considerations were completely and heinously violated by this prosecution team. The consistent effect over the course of the trial was astounding and the cumulative effect disturbing.

This case should have been dismissed for prosecutorial misconduct before it ever reached the contaminated and bizarre jury process that led to this verdict.

CNN seems to have access to McCain’s cattiest advisors. The other day, they got the "Diva" slam on Palin. And yesterday, they got the news that Palin had gone "rogue" with her statements about her rent-a-wardrdobe in Tampa.

Ensuring that news of the Republican National Committee’s sartorial spending spree will remain in the headlines for at least one more news cycle, Sarah Palin on Sunday sounded off on the $150,000 wardrobe that was purchased for her in September, denouncing the report as "ridiculous" and declaring emphatically: "Those clothes, they are not my property."

A senior adviser to John McCain told CNN’s Dana Bash that the comments about her wardrobe "were not the remarks we sent to her plane this morning." Palin did not discuss the wardrobe story at her rally in Kissimmee later in the day.

Now, aside from the latest rumor–that Mitt’s advisors are the source of the anti-Sarah leaks–I am fascinated by the lingering damage of WardrobeGate.

Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers, some of whom are currently working for Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin‘s bid for the White House, have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election. "Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won’t be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012," says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin. "The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney. He’s in charge on November 5th." 

[snip]

Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a "diva" and was going off message intentionally. The former and current Romney supporters further are pushing Romney supporters for key Republican jobs, including head of the Republican National Committee. 

You see, it amazes me that, given how badly WardrobeGate damages both McCain and Palin, McPalin campaign staffers are still addressing it. Sure, McCain tried to squelch any discussion of it early on, and if CNN’s correct and Palin went "rogue" with her extended comments yesterday, then they’re still trying to shut down discussion of the issue, even while insisting that they didn’t quite spend $150,000, after they sent the returns back to the store.

So perhaps it’s just a matter of Sarah, now invested more in her future going forward, trying to absolve herself of any responsibility for the $150,000 wardrobe.

Still, I can’t help but wonder how it became such a big issue. In the original story on this, Jeanne Cummings doesn’t describe any insiders tipping her to the expenditure; rather, it looks like she stumbled upon it doing old-fashioned reporting. 

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.

The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August.

The cash expenditures immediately raised questions among campaign finance experts about their legality under the Federal Election Commission’s long-standing advisory opinions on using campaign cash to purchase items for personal use.

Politico asked the McCain campaign for comment on Monday, explicitly noting the $150,000 in expenses for department store shopping and makeup consultation that were incurred immediately after Palin’s announcement. Pre-September reports do not include similar costs. [my emphasis]

In other words, the only potential sources she lists who might have tipped her off are the campaign finance people–the only McCain camp contacts she lists are formal requests for comment. 

Still WardrobeGate is the nugget that has set McCain and Palin off at each other, and I can’t help but wonder whether there’s something more to its continued currency as a story.

bmaz is having a real life today, so I’m going to have to point out that bmaz’s promise that Arizona would get close in the polls has come to fruition:

AZ-Pres: Hold on to your hats!

by kos

Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:23:38 PM EDT

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Likely voters

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47

The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they’ve hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would’ve polled Arizona instead of Tennessee.

And while you’re puzzling through the poll suggesting Obama currently has more votes banked in McCain’s homestate than McCain has, consider this. Before this poll came out, Nate had this to say:

It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes, which is where he’d end up if he wins all the states where we currently have him favored, plus North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Obama would have to win West Virginia to break the 400 barrier, and I don’t see that happening; the other long shot is Arizona, which hasn’t been polled in some time.

Of course, that was before this poll came out. But now this poll shows that Arizona is definitely closer than West Virginia and might well be closer than North Dakota and certainly is now one of those states that–if Obama has a blow-out come election day–he might well pick up. 

Now, I don’t really think Obama’s going to do that well. Some of these states will start going McCain’s way.

Still, just for shits and giggles, I invite you to relish the thought–just for a moment–that McCain’s home state is in range of being the state that would put Obama over 400 electoral votes.