“Holed Up”

As many people have pointed out, the McCain campaign are sending Sarah Palin back to Alaska to hide out until the journalists forget about her.

CHUCK TODD:Well Ron, We’ve been able to see that there are a few folks who are saying [Palin is] actually going to hole up in Alaska for a little, she’s got to see her son off who’s going to be deployed to Iraq, so we may not see her on the campaign trail for a little while.

RON ALLEN: Yes she hasn’t been home for a long time, and she’s obviously got some business to deal with there.

Obviously, part of the reason the campaign is sending Palin away to the woods is because the media has made it clear they’re not satisfied with only scripted interactions with her–the McCain campaign needs to get Palin away from the media at least until they do some real vetting of her. (Though, as Mudflats points out, there are journalists in AK, too.)

But I think there are several things contributing to their last minute change of plans.

  • They intend to shield her from the media, as everyone has mentioned.
  • McCain campaign staffers have been in AK for several days, trying to bury all the dirt on Palin; I’m certain they need her personal involvement to bury some of it, not least on TrooperGate, in which her promised cooperation has disappeared in the last several days. 
  • She’s a quick study, no doubt, but she still has a great deal of cramming to do before she can answer any real questions about McCain’s policy or foreign policy in general.
  • If the MI Independents quoted in this focus group are even remotely representative, then I suspect the McCain camp has internal polling showing that Palin helps immensely in some places, but drags down the ticket in others. Sterling Heights is adjacent to Oakland County, where all those Independent voters were panning the Palin pick. I think the campaign realized they better get a better sense of where Palin helps them before they roll her out and offend voters in swing states.
  • After last nights underwhelming speech, McCain is being overshadowed by his Veep candidate. He needs to reassert himself as the dominant player on the ticket, before Palin comes out of her hibernation and wows the crowds again.

She’ll be back, probably in heavily vetted appearances and fundraisers. But for now, McCain’s campaign have to figure out what they’ve got on their hands, and figure out how to manage it to get the wrinkly white dude elected.

  1. dakine01 says:

    RON ALLEN: Yes she hasn’t been home for a long time, and she’s obviously got some business to deal with there.

    A week and a half is a long time to be away from home? With the family in tow? Since when?

    • emptywheel says:

      Since they introduced a VP candidate without doing any vetting whatsoever.

      Someone’s got to go back and tell them what they can shred and what they need to hide away in a manmoose-sized safe.

  2. scribe says:

    One wonders two things:
    1. While she’s in Alaska, can the investigating committee tag her with a subpoena (or will her party and Secret Service obstruct justice)?
    2. Why does the Alaska legislature not just impeach her for obstructing the investigation by refusing to testify? Seems like, being a reformer in a corrupt state, she’d have chapped quite a few of the entrenched legislators who’d be doing the impeaching.

    OK, three.
    3. If she keeps dodging the press, why not call it out for what it is: moral cowardice? After all, if everything she did was right, just and true, she should have absolutely no problem standing up for herself and explaining it. If, OTOH, her behavior wasn’t on the up and up, her refusal to meet the press is just another of the reasons this is the promise of a third Bush term – stonewall the press when you get called on your lies.

    And, since nothing happens in a campaign which the lead candidate disapproves of, this means St. John approves of being Bush III and acting like him.

  3. FrankProbst says:

    Hmmm. There’s a big factor here that I think you’ve missed: The National Enquirer. They obviously got to Alaska first, and it took them less than 48 hours to dig up the pregnant unwed daughter. Team McCain didn’t really deploy its team up there until that happened. Yes, they only deal with scandals that involve sex, but I wouldn’t underestimate them. They’ve already had an enormous impact on the story.

      • FrankProbst says:

        On that note, Todd’s former business partner just put an emergency seal on his divorce records.

        Oh my.

      • bmaz says:

        The rumor regarding the business partner has been out for at least two or three days; surely someone has already hit those records (Like Laure McGann maybe?). I also note that, at least as for me, you can’t get into the court for that doc request anymore. Lastly, Palin’s new attorney has been doing his job, the Alaska investigation of Branchwater, or whatever his name is, better get off his butt and start pounding; because the wagons are circling very fast up there and he looks to be on the outside all of a sudden. He needs to get subpoenas issued and start locking down evidence and testimony.

        • emptywheel says:

          Agree. They need to subpoena the Gov while she’s up there.

          Though I think the union suit kind of puts them in a bind. Either they got the anti Wooten stuff through personnel files (which they deny) or Todd gave it to people in the state from Wooten’s own divorce papers.

      • PraedorAtrebates says:

        So the Enquirer scored another very real hit. In this case, good for them.

        The Rethugs may be able to stymie the MSM but I doubt they can win against the Enquirer.

  4. Tross says:

    I would think she will look a lot less “pitbull-ish” if she never responds to all the accusations that are bound to come out.

    Where’s her fighting spirit? Where’s her “maverick-ness”?

    What kind of in-your-face, scrappy, hockey-mom can’t handle questions from the press?

    The voters won’t be impressed.

  5. Leen says:

    McCain earned those “wrinkles”. The Ageism hogwash is pathetic (can be as bad as sexism and racism).

    What I object to is the collective amnesia that McCain and the Republican party seem to be banking on and the American public seem to suffer from. The Republicans keep bringing up “reform” last night McCain even used the words that his administration would be “transparent” and “accountable”. Yet McCain and all other Republican Senators (along with some Democrats) did everything they could do to block and stand in the way of the efforts by some of the Democrats to hold the Bush administration accountable for their many crimes. McCain and his Republican comrades did everything to block transparency and accountability It’s as if the last eight years did not happen. WTF.

    Can McCain get away with pretending that he actually supports transparency and accountability. Can Americans memories be manipulated that easily?

    • PraedorAtrebates says:

      Ageism is NOT irrelevant. We are not talking about a relatively spry 60 year old, we are talking about a busted up, cancerous OLD man who is, actuarily speaking, literally on death’s door. He would NOT serve 2 terms because he is unlikely to survive one.

      Multiple bouts of cancer (it is still there, it isn’t popping up all de novo again and again – I do cancer research), explosive temper (and likely associated hypertension)…his age, in this case, matters. It IS an issue. It is an issue because he is literally stuck FAR back in the past. His entire speech at the RNC was about the past. Every time he is hit with some gaff or flip-flop in the present, he resorts to the distant past (mainly Vietnam and his POW status). His every response to every challenge is from the past days of Teddy Roosevelt: Send in the gunboats!

      His VP IS the next president should McCain actually be appointed president by the SCOTUS because he would not live long in that position (because he is very very old and rickety).

  6. Leen says:

    On Palin. I think she should be asked if she would be willing to stand by her “reform” claims. The claims that she is willing to hold individuals in her own party accountable. Is she really willing to go after “the good ole boys” in the Bush administration based on her alleged “maverick” spirit and values. She would have a big job in front of her.

    Sound like McCain better have another press barbecue to settle the MSM down.

  7. skdadl says:

    About McCain’s odd speech: There was a repeated line towards the end, obviously an audience cue, that I had to go back to check to believe: “Stand up, stand up and fight with me.”

    “Fight with me”?? Really? Did it not occur to the expensive speechwriters that that line can be read two ways? It sure hit me the wrong way first time around, and having to figure it out just made it look more flaccid.

  8. AZ Matt says:

    It was a boring speech. I listened to it on the radio so not seeing the video junk may have diluted the effect of it. It was just boring on the radio.

    • brendanx says:

      It was worse. I read frank antipathy on the faces of a lot of those RNC freaks at the mavericky lines of McCain’s. This man is out of touch with everything, whether it be the houses he owns, the going price for picking lettuce, or the nature of his party. It is simply incredible that he want ed to pick Lieberman. Now I understand why Republicans really hated McCain, this deluded vanity case.

  9. AZ Matt says:

    That Keith, what a wimp! Not red-blooded enough to “fight with McCain”. Wimpy just like community organizers!

    Keith Olbermann Apologizes For RNC’s Graphic 9/11 Tribute (VIDEO)

    A visibly upset Keith Olbermann apologized to viewers Thursday night for the graphic 9/11 tribute played in the lead-up to John McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.

    Olbermann said of the video:

    “If at this late date, any television network had, of its own accord, shown that much video tape and that much graphic video tape of 9/11…it, we, would be rightly eviscerated at all quarters, perhaps by the Republican Party itself, for exploiting the memories of the dead, and perhaps even for trying to evoke that pain again. If you reacted to that video tape the way I did, I apologize. It is a subject of great pain, for many of us still, and it was probably not appropriate to be shown.”


    • skdadl says:

      That video. Did you notice the way it starts? With the hostage crisis in Tehran in 1979. It is supposed to be a tribute to 9/11, and it starts with Iran.

  10. WilliamOckham says:

    I have no doubt that ew has nailed the campaign’s reasoning behind sending Palin back to Alaska, but it seems like a huge unforced error to me. Running from the press is a great way to keep them interested in the story. There’s a reason it’s called pack journalism. Besides, Anchorage is still pretty nice at this time of year. The fact that the main newspaper is a McClatchy paper won’t help either.

    It’s risky for Palin to be seen burying the dirt. Much better to have minions do that for you. Going back now makes it that much harder to plead busy campaign schedule later. Likewise, if she was really going to cram for her foreign policy exam debate with Joe Biden, she’d be getting away from her family and Governor’s job.

    If they haven’t figured out by now where Palin helps, they are really in trouble. If I was running the campaign, I’d have Palin hosting a series of private fund-raising dinners for the non-incarcerated Bush Rangers and Pioneers. They need her now while the big money folks still think McCain has a chance to win.

    • wavpeac says:

      Well, I wish that the track record didn’t make it damn clear that running away from the press works!! Because in my humble opinion this has been a big success for the republican. Run away from everything, avoid it, don’t bring it up, never give in, never be accountable.

      I think it has been a spanking success for them. I do think however, that the media is getting tired of it, and I am beginning to feel that the old “liberal bias” is coming back out of sheer frustration.

      We can only hope.

      • WilliamOckham says:

        I disagree. Stonewalling works. Lying in a way that can’t be checked works. Lying about your policy position works. Sending a kept-in-the-dark stooge Scottie McClellan Dana Perino Nicole Wallace to talk to the press works.

        Running and hiding doesn’t work. You gotta pretend there’s nothing to hide.

  11. spiny says:

    Hey, do you think McCain might be watching his back now? The fundies couldn’t win the nomination outright during the primary process, but McCain has handed them a golden opportunity with the Palin selection. He cynically got to change the subject from Obama’s speech and his failure to remember how many houses he owns by playing this “anybody can become president” game show crap, but I’m guessing that he never watched survivor, because everybody in America knows that the next step for the underrated, suddenly successful contestant is to stab their sugar-daddy in the back…

  12. jdmckay says:

    the McCain campaign are sending Sarah Palin back to Alaska to hide out until the journalists forget about her.

    Well, she’s scheduled to appear w/McCain here (Albuquerque) & Santa Fe today. So, … ??? I guess we’ll see.

    From everything I’ve seen & heard, I thought Jane’s Palin characterization hit the nail on the head:

    That cheery hockey mom demeanor with the feisty, sharp stick the shiv in while looking like you are offering a second helping of meringue pie to the neighbors technique is the same kneecap with a smile demeanor that used to win jury trials for me. She’s a pro and she worked that crowd like one, especially playing to the cameras—her sportscaster experience was clearly a plus there.

    “kneecap with a smile demeanor”… kind’a nails it. She is good in front of the camera, and knows how to work the room. And unmentioned in any commentary I’ve seen so far, her garb last night revealed a discreet but healthy bosom during Big John’s speech last night… struck me sort’a like subliminal messaging for the horny republican “family values”/”evangelical” schizophrenics.

    She also is a bald faced liar: eg. a smooth talking Carly Fiorina w/sex appeal.

    She also won admiring adolation of most women in my neighborhood (about a dozen) who for the most part are liberals (”this is Udall country” a common refrain around here). I must admit to some concern, as her marketing has been smooth as silk.

    • klynn says:

      She’s not gaining anything with “moms” in my neighborhood, except for a few. Most see right through her.

      There are more Obama signs in my neighborhood.

      • emptywheel says:

        Do you mind driving down to Cinci to see about the moms down there? If she doesn’t help in OH, we’re in very good shape.

        I rather suspect she doesn’t fly with mid-western gals, but Cinci’s a weird part of the mid-west, in my experience.

        Though I’m not sure’d go over well with the Catholics down there.

        • Leen says:

          As many predicted she is helping in Ohio. Talking to people in the Dayton Cinci region 29 catholic cousins in this region) along with southeastern Ohio. After flying into Dayton after the Convention in Denver on Monday I headed back to Athens at 5a.m. As I was getting gas at a station near Huber Heights (huge middle class brick home area built in the 50’s for the working class) I talked with the white male 60 something security guard and the cashier at the service station. Palin pulled them in both of them.

          Have talked with many local people (many Reagan Democrats) here in southeastern Ohio who as Bmaz has said were looking for any reason to sway them to McCain.

          I have changed what I am doing for the Dems here in this region (besides continuing to register voters) by focusing on young voters instead of some of the people who have been voting against their own self interest for years.

          We have 60 days.

        • Leen says:

          cinci has been a sealed deal for the Republicans for a long time. Huge contradiction between the pro fetus folks and how they do not support real pro life issues. Paul Hackett was starting to shake the area up.

          If the African American registrations (which many folks have been working on) go up along with the students at Univ of Cinci go up (or the light bulb goes on) things could change. But this is not an area to bank on in Ohio (although we have not given up on working these areas)

        • klynn says:

          Yes, I’ll go to Cinci!(My preference is Cleveland though!)

          I was just there the last week in July for a “mini vacation” with the kids. Most of the individuals we talked with were pro Obama. This was of course before any VP announcements.

          We happened to visit some wonderful historical places. There is an amazing national museum in Cinci, the national Underground Railroad Freedom Center. Marcy, if you have not been there, it is a museum worth the trip to go see. It is world class, and that comment is coming from a museum junkie. If you want, make it to Columbus, I’ll drive you to Cinci to go to it, my treat.

          If there is one city in the US where this campaign may end up with a strong “racial” overtone, it could be Cinci. That concern aside, I just had a businessman at my house who is from Cinci. He said he felt the economy was worse in Cinci than in Columbus (I have to do my homework on that). He said his company was seeking more work in the Columbus market because Columbus was doing better according to his company’s research. He said he is for Obama and his wife is for McCain. He “use” to be a Republican. He said he cannot be one anymore. His top two reasons: the war and the record deficit and the effect of both on the economy.

          I do know there have been a number of River Boat Cruise fund raisers for the GOP in the greater Cinci area.

          Marcy, one of the reasons I sent you that email on the Ohio rally was to somewhat address the Cinci issue. Columbus is a true blend of Cinci and Cleveland. Even the fans here are almost split between the pro teams in baseball and football. It will be tight in Cinci but my take is Obama has a chance to pickup enough votes to win Ohio. As long as the Repugs do not “try” something again. Remember I posted at TNH on the last election day that I overheard someone high in the Ohio GOP say to a group of Repugs at about 3 PM that Bush had won Ohio. Hopefully, no vote tampering this time — not ever again.

          Leen @ 45 — I agree.

      • jdmckay says:

        Most see right through her.

        Sadly, most here see very little beyond what’s right in front of them. And as distasteful as it is, a notable percentage of the dedicated “we want a woman” disaffected Hillary supporters around here responded like a Labor Day penny sale on their favorite shoes.

        The talk also is wrapped in “Western Values” around here, another cheap mantra… but layered high enough cheap mantras move certain %s of people. In this district (mostly liberal Bernalillo county), Heather Wilson was elected 3 times.

        It’s going to take serious work and skilled communications to pop this Palin bubble IMO.

        • PraedorAtrebates says:

          You know, I am from the West and I don’t know what these values are. The values they seem to refer to are alien to me: kill whatever you want, it is just some animal; pollute if you want, the sky is big and the water moves away; Boy-howdy, look at that view! Mine the shit out it!

          I dunno, but MY values, MY Western values are quite liberal and generally easy on the earth. Their values seem to be more focused on the 19th century (any city, any location) rather than here, today, in the West.

          • jdmckay says:

            You know, I am from the West and I don’t know what these values are.


            As I said, it’s a sales pitch… sold a lot of SUV’s these recent years. And as subject of this thread’s post, keeping Palin under wraps is not a random scheduling convenience. Video on ThinkProgress on the campaign’s statement this morning:

            SCARBOROUGH: Yesterday Nicole Wallace suggested that she was sitting right there and told Jay Carney of Time magazine ‘Sarah Palin doesn’t have to talk to you, she doesn’t’ have to talk to the press.’ … Can we expect Sarah Palin on Meet the Press and other one on one interviews throughout the course of this campaign?

            DAVIS: We’re going to do whatever we think is the best to win. We have 60 days left and if we think it’s a good idea to go out there and do those shows, we’ll do them.

            SCARBOROUGH: Can you avoid it? Meet the Press?

            DAVIS: We can afford anything we want to do. … We’re going to do what we think is in our best interest. If that means access to the press, we’ll give it to you.

            Hmm… I thought it was country first for these guys?

            “Knee cap and run”… we’ll see.

      • Leen says:

        I really want the press to challenge Palin on her “maverick” will go after members in her own party status. Is she willing to pivot and go after the Bush administration based on her alleged “reform” stance. Call her out on her claims.

  13. riley says:

    Maybe (National Enquirer?) her past is about to blow up big time, and they know it can’t be contained, so she’s going back to resign from the nomination. Although the fundies can forgive/ignore anything as long as she doesn’t support abortion.

  14. brendanx says:

    Since they can shred and intimidate and generally muddy a lot of the more detailed issues dogging Palin, I like the bridge to nowhere as a point of attack. She lied blatantly about it in her first two national appearances, and “bridge to nowhere” is a handy metaphor for the ticket.

    • jdmckay says:

      Which Udall country are you referring to?

      ‘tee hee hee :)… Tom (New Mexico Senate candidate) vs. Steve Pearce. I’m doing some work for his campaign.

      There are so many now…

      He was onstage early in dem convention w/Harry Reid and his cousin Mark, running for a Utah Senate seat. Tom said:

      “Our motto is, vote for the Udall nearest you!”

      • bmaz says:

        Heh, vote for the nearest one is a good philosophy. My mother knew Stewart pretty well, and Mo some. When I was down in Tucson for a year and a half doing some graduate work, i worked for Mo.

        • jdmckay says:


          Pierce is quite the asshole, frankly… guns, oil (we have a lot of both here) and anti-hippie well describes his platform. Good riddance.

          I’ve gotten to know Tom… he’s a rare commodity of honesty/integrity & intelligence. He’s won my respect, and we’ll be fortunate to have him. He gave up a secure & influential congressional seat to “do this for the team”.

  15. wavpeac says:

    Another tought…didn’t Biden just send his son off to Iraq. Didn’t that happen right smack dab in the middle of his being selected as V.P running mate? How much time did he take off?

    Sorry the gloves are off. I have been a single mom. Fair or unfair, I was expected to put in the same hours, work required overtime, just like everyone else. (and she is not a single mom…she has a perfectly capable husband).

    • Nell says:

      I’d let that angle go if I were y’all. Jim Webb passed on the Labor Day events in Virginia in 2006 to go down to Camp Lejeune for a few days just before his son deployed. Operatives (like me) were livid, because he was still such an unknown quantity and visibility was important. But cooler, more human heads argued that this let people know something about him they could identify with, and they were right.

      It would be good to know exactly when the Palin son is scheduled to go. Jimmy Webb’s unit had its date moved up, which is why Webb had to cancel on the Labor Day events (he’d said from the beginning he’d take off to be with his son, but it was originally going to be mid-Sept).

      • Leen says:

        Palin mentioned Sept 11. Not sure just what was going to happen on that date for her son, but she mentioned it. We know that Rove and his team will do their best to use that date…maybe with Palin’s son deploying and used as their war prop

        • acquarius74 says:

          and Nell:

          First the time for Track Palen’s deployment was “in Sept”; now after the VP choice it’s 9/11. (Stinks of Rove). Can’t you imagine the razz-a-ma-tazz photo ops that will be made of that!

          I googled Track Palin and learned he spent his senior year living with a friend in Minnesota, to play hockey. Then I found on a site in Alaska from a commenter there that the daughter, Bristol, was not living at home either; “it’s rumored she is living with Sarah’s sister.” (that was in July this year). So, sounds like home was’nt exactly as portrayed, huh?

  16. posaune says:

    mr. posaune started on the morbidity/mortality statistics for a 73-yo white male. not so great . . . 23% risk of death within 4 years in a healthy male with no disease history.

    • PraedorAtrebates says:

      Yup. And McCain is seeking a high-stress position AND has many prior/ongoing health issues (RELEASE YOUR HEALTH RECORDS MCCAIN! You know you have to anyway – putting it off doesn’t prevent the inevitable).

  17. Leen says:

    I do believe that Governor Strickland’s efforts (former congressman from my district and grew up in southeastern Ohio from a humble background in these parts) will tip the scale in Ohio. Along with the 30% of the Republicans who voted for him for Governor.

    I do hope that on one of Obama/Biden’s visits to Ohio they take the time to go into the Glouster/Trimble/Amesville/Chauncey region (old coal mining area, lots of older union members who still go with the Democrats, but their kids do not). I hope they come into this region instead of Athens (university town all ready tipped for the Democrats). Athens always gets the Dem visitors over the years (Hillary, Edwards, Kerry, Bill etc). Obama and Biden need to hit the areas that are in question instead of the all ready sealed deals.

  18. Nell says:

    This doesn’t seem very “holed up” to me:

    In their first post-convention rally, John McCain and Sarah Palin are together in a small Wisconsin town today to try to keep the momentum going…

  19. WilliamOckham says:

    I have a couple of observations. There is a class of voters who I call ‘fake independents’. They call themselves independents, or even Reagan Democrats, but they’ve voted for the Republican party candidate for President in every general election since 1972. When the pollsters call them, they’ll say their undecided, but you can bet when they walk into that voting booth in November, they’ll be pulling the lever for McCain. These folks follow politics closely and some of them voted for Clinton in open Democratic primaries, but they were never going to vote for a Democrat, not even Hillary, in the general. It’s a waste of time going after those votes. For them, Palin was the excuse they needed to declare their preference.

    There’s a completely separate class of voters who are the true low-information voters who don’t have any strong party ties and don’t pay much attention to politics until after Labor Day or when some story hits Us, People or the National Enquirer. These are the people that the Palin ‘narrative’ (as opposed to her hideous policy positions) is aimed at. These folks will be influenced by how this story plays out in the press. They are the ones who can be persuaded by shaping the news coverage. They are McCain’s only hope.

      • WilliamOckham says:

        I don’t understand your question. In 2004, Bush held on to enough low info voters to win, if that’s what you’re asking. He did because the press played along with the most ridiculous storylines possible.

        Take a look at Marc Ambinder’s Undecided Voter Panel post. Reader S is someone I would classify as a low-information truly independent voter; someone who votes on style rather than substance. Nobody knows how those folks will vote until the last week or two of the campaign. They are the stuff of landslides when you get them all.

        Reader B, who apparently honestly believes he is undecided, is as likely to vote for Obama as I am to vote for McCain (0% chance absent a brain tumor or other trauma). He’s what I call a fake ‘independent’.

        Reader T is going to vote for Obama. He’s a lefty ideologue. He wants to maintain his sense of independence and purity, but, in the end, thanks in large part to Karl Rove, folks like him will vote Dem.

        • Leen says:

          If I am understanding what you are saying correctly. That the voters who claim to be “independents” have gone the Republican way. My question is did the majority of voters who call themselves “independents” vote for Bush in the last election? sounds like it.

          And from what you are saying it may be a waste of time trying to swing their vote over to Obama

          • WilliamOckham says:

            Not entirely. I’m saying very few of the so-called independents who watched either of the conventions are swing voters. The ones you want to target are the ones who didn’t watch the conventions and do watch the debates. McCain, Obama, and Palin all got about the same ratings. 35-40 million viewers. The McCain-Obama debates will get at least 60 million and possibly break 80 million (beating out the Carter-Reagan 1980 for the top Nielsen spot for pres. debates). As a SWAG, I’d say there’ll be 10 million votes up for grabs between the first debate and the Nov. election. Left to their own devices, those people will decide based on TV advertising, the ‘winner’ of the debates, or a media-driven narrative. On the other hand, if a neighbor or friend talks to one of those folks 3 times on behalf of one of the candidates, they’ll vote for that candidate. I’m just suggesting that we not fret over votes that will never go our way. Ask any farmer, it’s a lot more fun to till fertile soil.

          • freepatriot says:

            late reply, but here goes

            did the majority of voters who call themselves “independents” vote for Bush in the last election?


            did it matter, yes

            will it matter this time ???

            probably not

            in 2004 the registration breakdown was almost even; 38% Dems, 35% repugs, 20% indie

            in 2008, those numbers dont apply

            we’re lookin at a 45% Dems, 30% repugs, 20% Indie breakdown this year

            so if Obam can get a quarter of the indies, he’s home

    • brendanx says:

      You are exactly right. I work with one of these “fake independents”, and they’re authentic assholes, hybrids between dyed in the wool Republicans and genuine low information voters.

  20. Leen says:

    The Republican message about the Palin offspring comes across as just a tad contradictory…. Hey, media, leave those kids alone — so we can use them as we see fit.

  21. Sara says:

    No one seems to be considering the Biden potential in Ohio. If I were doing the scheduling, I’d put Biden in SW and W Ohio for a day or so — Dayton south to the river is Irish Catholic, with older Catholic German families in Cincy — and Western Ohio has many German Catholics — Lima and N and S of there.

    We’ve gotten this contest slightly wrong framed — it is Biden v Palin and Obama v McCain, it isn’t Palin v Obama. Biden is getting frozen in the slush.

    • klynn says:

      I’ve been stating that for days. The first time Palin made a comment in Dayton about her experience against Obama’s I wrote over at the Lake that there is something wrong in her thinking.

      Yes, we need to keep it Biden vs Palin and Obama vs McCain…

    • Leen says:

      Good ideas.
      My mother(82) is Irish/Polish/ Catholic. She was a total devotee of Hillary’s. She likes Obama but kept asking “where did he come from?” Had not really followed him before his announcement. She has listened to him closely. After really listening to him she keeps repeating “he is a really good man, a really good man”. When Obama picked Biden she was very disappointed that Hillary did not get the spot. (she has gotten over it, although she is now hoping Hillary gets the Attorney General spot now the Edwards looks like he is out of the picture) I hope he is not.

      Since the convention she has Obama/Biden yard signs and is knocking on doors for Obama.

  22. Neil says:

    Whether Sarah Palin has returned to Alaska to attend to family, take a crash course on national and international matters, or simply to limit her exposure to the press, the fact is her withdrawal from public limits her exposure and as a result, opportunities for voters to assess the candidate for themselves.

    Last week, we learned she is any every woman, a mom, a governor, a reformer, a politician who can deliver a devastating attack on her opponent with a smile on her face, a Christian who believes the war in Iraq is a “task that is from God” and that abortion – even in cases of rape and incest – should be a crime in the United Stated. She is the candidate for the second highest elected office in the land, one heartbeat from the presidency.

    With 60 days before the election, what is the McCain campaign saying about VP candidate Sarah Palin by taking her off the campaign trail?

    David Gregory: “There has got to be a concern in the McCain camp that her initial appearance, as dazzling as it was, might represent a high water mark. Senator Biden is going to appear on meet the press Sunday with Tom Brokaw but McCain’s campaign manager Rick Davis was on Morning Joe with Joe Scarborough this morning and said there’s no plans yet for her to do any interviews. Listen to this.”

    Joe Scarborough: Can we expect Sarah Palin on Meet the Press and other one on one interviews throughout the course of this campaign?

    Rick Davis: We’re going to do whatever we think is the best to win. We have 60 days left and if we think it’s a good idea to go out there and do those shows, we’ll do ‘em.

    I think McCain’s campaign manager just admitted that it may not be a good idea for McCain’s prospects to have Sarah Palin answer questions in one on one interviews on the usual nationally televised programs.

    Joe Scarborough: Can you avoid it? Can you avoid Meet the Press?

    Rick Davis: We can afford anything we want to do.

    As recently as last night, John McCain promised to set a new standard for transparency and accountability. One would think that would include requiring the VP candidate, an admitted new comer to the national scene, to campaign and to answer questions in one on one interviews as is expected of VP and other holding elected national office. I’m left wonder whether John McCain and Rick Davis expect you and me to buy a pig in a poke.

  23. urbanmeemaw says:

    klynn and leen: i live in the city of cincinnati, and i agree, cinci is a strange bird in many ways. i live on the west side, which is extremely conservative and catholic and yet supports a liberal democratic county commissioner (and former city councilman). people here will cross party lines if they really like a particular candidate. i think obama could carry the city, but the problems here are the suburb/exurb areas. this area, as you probably know, is home to jean schmidt. and the infamous warren county lockdown in 2004. but i also understand that dems made some real inroads in traditionally conservative areas in 2006. i agree that people here would respond to biden. interestingly enough, i’m seeing alot of obama stickers on cars with kentucky license plates. kentucky is pretty solidly republican (and northern kentucky is very catholic). for what this is all worth.

    • Leen says:

      I agree the “city” but those outskirts. Mean jean territory, although anything is possible. A group of us came over to Cinci to work the area for Paul Hackett. Learned a great deal about the suburbs there.

      Have worked registering voters in the downtown region in the past, especially after the recent police brutality issues.

    • Leen says:

      You go. You never know. I grew up in a Catholic family. Bring up the lack of real “pro life” support by many Catholics. Health care, fair wages, access to a quality education. Jesus would be for health care for all. Jesus would be for Obama

  24. acquarius74 says:

    Two subjects: (1) McCain’s age (2) War Hero BIG LIE

    (1) I’m 74 years old, so I can tell it like it is. McCain is too old, physically, mentally, and attitudinaly. I saw some videos dated in 2005 and he has aged drastically since then. He seems to become thinner by the day. He has those temper fits and becomes very flushed. (Haven’t we had enough of those temper fits??) Yes, we should be able to demand that his medical records be released to the public. If he is elected I predict he will be dead within 2 years – – do you really want Palin to be our president???

    2) When McCain was shot down in 1967 Sarah Palin was 3 years old. She probably considers the Vietnam War as ancient history. Most people who were not at least 10 years old during that war probably have very little understanding of it except what the TV feeds them.

    McCain was no hero! Don’t believe me? Google: Songbird McCain
    or Google: Col. Earl Hopper or http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com
    He made 32 tapes for radio for the North Vietnamese. In return for medical treatment he told them the flight paths the US bombers took into Hanoi, the altitude, the targets, the number of aircraft on his ships (Forrestal and another). The information he gave caused the NV to move their anti-aircraft guns to be more effective. After his information was utilized by the NV our aircraft losses went up 60% and caused us to stop bombing. That information caused the deaths and imprisonment of a lot of our airmen!

    After the prisoners were released from Hanoi and came home there were high-ranking POWs who had been in the Hanoi Hilton at the same time, some longer. Five of them tried to have McCain court-martialed for treason, but the Joint Chiefs had already made a big deal of them ALL being heros so they nixed it.

    Other POW officers continued to be promoted as their time in grade was fulfilled even though they were prisoners. but McCain came out the same rank as he was when shot down.

    So, my question is: Why is everybody swallowing this phony POW crap? Even Obama and Biden do. Why?? Surely Biden knows better.

    Can you folks answer this?

  25. jdmckay says:

    In the end, we couldn’t explain the huge difference between the John McCain of Thursday night and the one who ran such an angry and derisive campaign and convention — other than to conclude that he has decided he can have it both ways. He can talk loftily of bipartisanship and allow his team to savage his opponent.

    What makes that so vexing — and so cynical — is that this is precisely how Mr. Bush destroyed Mr. McCain’s candidacy in the 2000 primaries, with the help of the Karl Rovian team that now runs Mr. McCain’s campaign.

    In my view, that hits the nail on the head.

    In 2k election primaries McCain spoke endlessly on corruption in Wa, repeatedly calling it a “cesspool”. I changed registration to Repub in order to vote for him in Ca. primaries. Bush/Rove dirty tricks derailed his campaign after early victories/momentum, and that was last we heard of the corruption and “cesspool.”

    Then McCain’s Bush “hug” in ‘04.

    I saw McCain as broken by Bush/Repub power brokers, and reconstituted in their image. The “hug”, at the time, left me more than anything w/a sadness… a caricature of the process of assimilation.

    There could not have been a starker contrast between Mr. McCain’s night on the stage and the earlier days of the convention, a carnival of partisan rancor. It was not a forum for explaining policies or defining ideals, certainly none ever associated with Mr. McCain.

    On Wednesday, the nastiest night of the week, Mr. McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, and other speakers offered punch lines, rather than solutions for this country’s many problems — ridiculing the Washington elite (of which most were solid members) and Barack Obama.

    “Al Qaeda terrorists still plot to inflict catastrophic harm on America, and he’s worried that someone won’t read them their rights,” Ms. Palin said.

    Mr. Obama, in reality, wants to give basic human rights to prisoners in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, only a handful of whom are Qaeda members, and shield them from torture. So, once upon a time, did Mr. McCain, but there was no mention of that in St. Paul, or of the bill he wrote protecting those prisoners.


    In the context of this OpED, I’m struck by has another FP NYT’s article up this morning: In Palin’s Life and Politics, Goal to Follow God’s Will. In particular, the contrast between “seeking God’s will” and Palin’s 1st night on the big stage which she used to twist facts (as OpED documents) in a disparaging manner.

    Whatever happened to: Thou Shalt not bear false witness.

    This article also refers to her stringent belief in prayer.

    This has continued through her appearances yesterday, in particular her “surge worked” vs. “Obama was wrong about it” comments. As though, as McCain has done for some time now, the “surge” characterizes the realities in Iraq… ignoring Abu Ghraib, the Baghdad “sweeps” and massive random arrests, the destruction (etc etc)… essentially an Iraq which wants us out of there, embraces Iran, and now it seems will deprive Exxon/Chevron/BP of their oil spoils. And BTW, didn’t our reason for going in there?

    I think Ms Palin should re-evaluate whatever she thinks she’s doing when she gets down on her knees.

    I also worry about Obama “admitting” point-blank he “was wrong about the surge” & that it’s “been fabulously successful.” Wordsmithing Iraq into a narrow context of “the surge” is McCain’s only (quasi) resonant Iraq meme, and it’s a false one… again, fully ignoring the mess that’s been made on such a grand scale with huge longterm consequences.

    That Palin is squawking all this crap… eg. ignorance with an attitude, AFAIK is all Obama/Biden need to address as it’s the very real concerns on the matters of her capabilities/knowledge/experience in the quintessential foriegn policy issues of our day.