Arizona 407

bmaz is having a real life today, so I’m going to have to point out that bmaz’s promise that Arizona would get close in the polls has come to fruition:

AZ-Pres: Hold on to your hats!

by kos

Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:23:38 PM EDT

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Likely voters

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47

The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they’ve hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would’ve polled Arizona instead of Tennessee.

And while you’re puzzling through the poll suggesting Obama currently has more votes banked in McCain’s homestate than McCain has, consider this. Before this poll came out, Nate had this to say:

It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes, which is where he’d end up if he wins all the states where we currently have him favored, plus North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Obama would have to win West Virginia to break the 400 barrier, and I don’t see that happening; the other long shot is Arizona, which hasn’t been polled in some time.

Of course, that was before this poll came out. But now this poll shows that Arizona is definitely closer than West Virginia and might well be closer than North Dakota and certainly is now one of those states that–if Obama has a blow-out come election day–he might well pick up. 

Now, I don’t really think Obama’s going to do that well. Some of these states will start going McCain’s way.

Still, just for shits and giggles, I invite you to relish the thought–just for a moment–that McCain’s home state is in range of being the state that would put Obama over 400 electoral votes. 

25 replies
  1. perris says:

    arizona I believe is just such a town that might have an anti-bradley affect

    they might be afraid to poll for the minority even though that is their intention

    might be fun indeed

  2. bobschacht says:

    Hey, EW, being a resident of AZ for 18 years qualifies me to be delighted at this news. But I was from Librul Flagstaff, so, you know, that doesn’t count.

    BTW, did you see this?

    Congress of the United States
    To Michael Mukasey, Attorney General of the United States, Greeting:

    Pursuant to lawful authority, YOU ARE HEREBY COMMANDED:

    to appear before the Committee on the Judiciary of the Senate of the United States, on November 18, 2008 at 10:00 am in Room 226 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, D.C., then and there to testify about what you know relative to the Committee’s inquiry into legal advice provided by the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel concerning the Administration’s national security practices and policies related to terrorism, including the Administration’s policies and practices related to detention and interrogation of detainees in U.S. custody; and to bring with you the documents described in Attachment A under the terms and conditions stated therein. A personal appearance at the above-referenced date and time will not be necessary if the documents described in Attachment A are delivered to the Committee’s offices or, if they contain classified national security information, to the Office of Senate Security at least 24 hours prior to the scheduled return.

    Hereof fail not, as you will answer your default under the pains and penalties in such cases made and provided.

    To any Committee staff member or U.S. Marshal to serve and return.

    Given under my hand, by authority vested
    in me by the Committee, on this 21 day
    of October, 2008.

    Senator Patrick Leahy
    Chairman, Committee on the Judiciary
    United States Senate

    Got this from [PDA Impeachment Group] via Susan Serpa.
    Is that the usual kind of genteel invitation Leahy usually sends out?

    Bob in HI

  3. AZ Matt says:

    I suspect that Native American voters tend to be undercounted in polling. True that many don’t vote but there could be enough this year to help Obama a little extra in Arizona.

    • emptywheel says:

      Yeah, and one of the best things about playing in this many states is that in those McCain didn’t expect to be competitive, the Republicans haven’t done as much work on voter suppression.

  4. cinnamonape says:

    The Registration levels in that State actually are more like 38% R and 36% D…so I like those numbers. I understand that there’s going to be a Univ. of Arizona poll out in a few days to confirm or deflate our enthusiasm.

    Still this poll might get a bunch of Obama supporters, and those who were considering him to come out! At the same time it might also bring out complacent Republicans.

  5. freepatriot says:

    joe pa gets 381 in the horseshoe

    Philly and Tampa-Bay, playin into the future

    if you’re worried about your young fan, don’t …

    they’re still gonna be playin this game when yer kid wakes up in the morning …

  6. Professor Foland says:

    Hey, what are those guys doing over there forming up a circle with all those guns?

    McCain’s gambling mentality is just going to make this worse for the GOP. Right up until Tuesday night, he’s going to be telling everyone who will listen, “It ain’t over till it’s over! You never know! Just one more throw! We could still win this one!” And by not releasing funds to be used towards actual useful purposes, he’s going to make a lot of enemies in the GOP. At this point there are a few professionals who still hope to salvage a few seats out of this debacle.

    McCain vs. Palin. Senators vs. McCain. Base vs. McCain. Moderates vs. Palin.

    I wish we didn’t have a true crisis coming upon us, it would be fun to watch if we didn’t have more serious things to do in this country.

  7. radiofreewill says:

    freepatriot – let’s take a look at how We get to the 67: says We have 52 Senate Seats in the bag.

    To get to 60+ Senate Seats, the following Dems – who are all currently either favored or tied – would have to Win:

    53 AK – Begich beats Stevens
    54 MN – Franken beats Coleman
    55 NC – Hagen beats Dole
    56 OR – Merkley beats Smith
    57 NH – Shaheen beats Sununu
    58 CO – Udall beats Schaffer
    59 MS – Musgrove beats Wicker
    60 GA – Martin beats Chambliss
    61 KY – Lunsford beats McConnell

    To get to 67+, We would likely have to Win all of the following, each of which would be considered long-shots for Dem Wins:

    62 NE – Kleeb beats Johanns
    63 TX – Noriega beats Cornyn
    64 SC – Conley beats Graham
    65 ME – Allen beats Collins
    66 OK – Rice beats Inhofe
    67 ID – LaRocco beats Risch
    68 KS – Slattery beats Roberts

    However, when I look at the Group from 62-68, I see Bush. These are Card-Carrying Bush Lovers.

    So, I say the Dems ought to hit the airwaves hard in those 7 States and hog-tie those 7 Goopers to Bush, and maybe, just maybe, We’ll shake-and-bake 67 Senate Seats out of this Election.

    It’ll take a perfect Triple Lindy, but, imvho, the 67 is Do-Able!

    • freepatriot says:

      It’ll take a perfect Triple Lindy, but, imvho, the 67 is Do-Able!

      we got mayday mcsame and princess pandora in our favor

      lots of rank and file repuglitards are starting to smell the shit on the walls of the repuglitard shack

  8. freepatriot says:

    A big weekend for Pennsylvania

    Joe Pa wins in columbus for the first time as a big 10 team

    the Phillies host three world series games

    the iggls have a home game

    there’s a Bruce Springsteen concert

    and the flyers might even win a game …

  9. readerOfTeaLeaves says:

    OT, in the sense that this comment isn’t about AZ, per se.
    But in terms of the overall campaign, the narrative, and the kind of subtle (often thoughtful) shifts and comments coming out of this campaign I wanted to note a couple interesting ‘transformations’ in the media, and how they are presenting information.

    I don’t think that Joe Klein has done any ’slideshow’ stories at TIME; if he has, this is the first one that I’ve seen. IMHO, this shows some new, better storytelling on the part of the press, and includes some remarkable photographs. Enjoy:…..ultimedia/

    Another exceptional storyteller seems to be Gary Younge at the Guardian; in the link below, he shows the stunning economic impacts of US health care on seveal people in Roanoake, WV:

    FWIW, I don’t see how politics can improve until the press/media improves.
    Both llinks are, IMHO, examples of the press doing a very good job of presenting very complex info in a very easy-to-follow format.

    Here’s hoping more voters see this kind of information, which goes beyond sound bites.
    If that happens, then Obama/Biden have an advantage.

    Palin and McCain are soundbite candidates; the communication technologies have moved beyond them.
    Here’s hoping that plenty of AZ voters move on, too.

  10. kspena says:

    A little OT; Satire that can scare you. R J Schulman of Post Times Sun Dispatch was on Peter B Collins’ show and talked about this article ‘quoting’ Winthrop Downing of the Republican National Committee on voter supression.

    Thursday, October 23, 2008


    By R J Shulman
    WASHINGTON (PTSD News) – As the polls indicate Senator Barack Obama is slowly pulling away from rival John McCain, Republican leaders are concerned they will not be able to steal the election. “We project that we can overcome up to seven points of an actual Obama lead with the strategy we have in place,” said Winthrop Downing of the Republican National Committee.

    Downey told the Post Times Sun Dispatch that this strategy, named Operation American Freedom, which was used successfully in 2000 in Florida and in 2004 in Ohio, uses shock and awe to disorient the opponent. “While black box tampering, challenging student, black and recently foreclosed voters, generic voter intimidation and voter roll purges have proven successful in the past,” Downing said, “we may not be able to prevail if Obama gets more than 54% of the vote.”

    “We were hoping the relentless personal attacks on Obama, you know, that he is an angry black Muslin intent on teaching sex to your kindergartener, would soften up his numbers enough for us to be in reach of pulling the victory from him, but he as been bobbing and weaving like Mohammed Ali on steroids,” said Barbara White, a GOP strategist.

    “We did make some progress when we tricked the media into covering the ACORN story thinking it was about real voter fraud,” White said, “Of course, no one with those wild names will show up to actually vote, but media focus on ACORN allows us to challenge more legitimate voters. More importantly, while the media is swarming all over the little acorn, the mighty tree of GOP vote stealing will go unnoticed, even though it will cost more than 3 million Democrat votes.”

    Polls in several key swing states are now showing an increased lead for Obama. “We just needed that old fool McCain to keep it close enough,” said a GOP staffer who wished to remain anonymous, “but he seems to be losing it. Just yesterday he got so mixed up at a rally he told a crowd in western Pennsylvania that he agreed with Obama that they were a bunch of angry rednecks. And Palin? A moose would be more qualified to be veep.”

    “We are running out of smear ideas and ideas for voter suppression,” said Karl Rove. “What we are the most afraid of, is that the next president of the United States will actually be a man who, I shudder to think of this, a man who actually won the election.”

    posted by R.J. Shulman @ 7:22 PM

  11. freepatriot says:

    phuckin fillies got lucky

    did they hit a ball outta the infield ???

    I think the wild throw after the passed ball was the longest thing that happened

    that’s baseball for ya

  12. DeadLast says:

    We still have to be careful because the Republicans know how to steal elections and sew doubt.

    Keep your eyes open.

  13. JohnLopresti says:

    One of the interesting cases in AZ’s post-proposition-200 world, Purcell v Gonzalez has provided material for an amazing page at the Moritz site. The case revolves around two foci, immigration, and HAVA voter ID implementation, issues which are fairly entangled in the litigation; and the case has accreted one similar suit. Often AZ opts for some eccentric solutions to problems affecting politics, and this is one of those matters. Moritz has aggregated links to what seem like several hundred papers and transcripts filed with courts both local and Scotus in the case. Hasen’s work in progress, Untimely Death of Bush v Gore, available at SSRN, provides a nice narrative around pp32ff, albeit somewhat dated, as the litigants continue in court exchanges even now in October 2008 over the dispute.

    Looking at some sites native to AZ, there was this link to the Iron Workers Union’s announcement of support for Barack Obama. Though McCain probably will not notice much, if he loses the race even in his home state, from the bbq colophon perspective in Sedona.

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