October 25, 2008 / by emptywheel


Arizona 407

bmaz is having a real life today, so I’m going to have to point out that bmaz’s promise that Arizona would get close in the polls has come to fruition:

AZ-Pres: Hold on to your hats!

by kos

Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:23:38 PM EDT

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Likely voters

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47

The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they’ve hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would’ve polled Arizona instead of Tennessee.

And while you’re puzzling through the poll suggesting Obama currently has more votes banked in McCain’s homestate than McCain has, consider this. Before this poll came out, Nate had this to say:

It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes, which is where he’d end up if he wins all the states where we currently have him favored, plus North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Obama would have to win West Virginia to break the 400 barrier, and I don’t see that happening; the other long shot is Arizona, which hasn’t been polled in some time.

Of course, that was before this poll came out. But now this poll shows that Arizona is definitely closer than West Virginia and might well be closer than North Dakota and certainly is now one of those states that–if Obama has a blow-out come election day–he might well pick up. 

Now, I don’t really think Obama’s going to do that well. Some of these states will start going McCain’s way.

Still, just for shits and giggles, I invite you to relish the thought–just for a moment–that McCain’s home state is in range of being the state that would put Obama over 400 electoral votes. 

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Originally Posted @ https://www.emptywheel.net/2008/10/25/arizona-407/