Top Kill Discussion Thread

Okay, for any Firedogs and Wheelheads following the big Top Kill moonshot (link is to a great Oil Drum explanation) going on, this is an open discussion thread. If you need a link, CNN has a live feed linked on their front page, here is the NPR feed. If folks have better ones, put them in comments.

The US Coast Guard has given final approval for the Top Kill attempt, so away we go I guess.

Here is a synopsis from Amina Khan at the LATimes:

To make up the pressure difference, technicians plan to pump mud into the blowout preventer, a kind of surge protector that sits on top of the wellhead. The device had failed to cut off the flow of oil when the pressure surged too high.

The mud that will be used, drilling mud, is a dense mixture of water and minerals such as bentonite clay. It can be made even denser by adding heavier minerals such as barite and galena.

The heavier the mud, the more it will suppress the flow — but on the flip side, the harder it will be to pump in.

The mud will be pumped from surface vessels with a combined 50,000-horsepower pumping capacity into the internal cavity of the blowout preventer. BP officials said they planned to pump the mud at a rate of up to 40 barrels per minute.

It’s unclear how much mud will be needed to stop the flow of oil, BP spokesman Bryan Ferguson said. It’s possible, he said, that the entire cavity of the blowout preventer will have to be filled.

Once the oil flow has been contained, the hole will be covered with cement to permanently close the well.

If it looks like the procedure isn’t working, perhaps because too much mud is leaking from the top of the blowout preventer, technicians plan to implement the junk shot — shooting in material to keep the mud from escaping.

The clog would include odd objects such as rope knots, golf balls and shredded tires. These materials are picked for a reason — each odd shape serves a different function, and the more varied the shapes of the collected junk, the more effective the clog will be.

BP officials said they could shoot a clog into the system several times, if necessary.

Okay, to start the ball rolling, here is my first question: The newer CGI depictions of the process give me more hope than the early ones in that it now appears the material is moving through a simpler path in and through the BOP than it first appeared. That is good. But my question is what is the status of these high pressure lines they have attached to pump the mud in through? As I read last night in a couple of different places, they had to actually cut off the old hose and fittings on the two key entry points, the kill line and the choke line, and then “clean up” which I take to essentially be grinding/filing to de-burr whatever flange is remaining and then clamp new feed lines for the mud on. Is that right? And, if so, are clamp fittings going to hold such high pressure? I have a pressure washer that only goes up to 3000 psi, and there is no way in hell you could use a clamp fitting on it; has to be threaded. So, is this gonna work on the BOP?

Here is the official BP Top Kill animation video.

Here is the official BP graphic description of the Top Kill process:

[Lead graphic – BP: Broken Promises. Logo design by Foye 2010 submitted as part of the Art For Change BP Logo Redesign Contest and used with permission]

image_print
257 replies
  1. JTMinIA says:

    OK, that video makes no sense at all.

    There is oil coming up that pipe from deep down because there’s more pressure deep down than there is in the ocean.

    And, yet, they have the injected mud magically going down the pipe and not up into the ocean.

    Sure, that’s what we want the mud to do, but why the h*ck would it do that? Why won’t the mud just join the oil in the flow towards the ocean?

    Something stinks here. If I had to guess, then I’d say that the video is a snow-job to keep you from recognizing the (otherwise obvious) fact that injecting mud into the BOP means that a lot of mud is going to end up in the ocean. Heavy hydraulic fluid in the ocean. Just in case there are a few sea creature that can survive oil and dispersants.

    ps. at least the graphic is honest in showing mud going up (and out) as well as down into the well; it’s the video that is highly misleading

    • PJEvans says:

      They’re going to pump it in at a higher pressure than the oil/gas is coming out at.
      They have three ships with pumps and mud, more than enough mud to fill the entire hole.

  2. JTMinIA says:

    The “top-kill moonshot” page says that this will be a junk-shot. The idea is that the BOP is partly closed (evidence of this???) and, therefore, the oil is, at some point, going through channels that are smaller than the tubes feeding the choke and kill lines. Thus, you don’t just inject mud; you also inject golf balls and such so the BOP eventually clogs up.

    If that’s the case, then both the graphic and the video are incomplete at best.

    Note: if this is going to be a junk-shot, then there’s the danger of making everything worse. If the junk doesn’t clog the top end of the BOP, but, instead, grinds a larger channel up the middle, then the resistance to flow being afforded by the BOP will be reduced, so the flow of oil would increase.

    I am sooo looking forward to this.

      • JTMinIA says:

        Yep. I just did some more reading and this is only mud – no junk. So, I’m back to my original question: what makes them think it will go down the pipe and not out the top? The answer seems to be: because the restriction to flow is above the kill and choke lines, the added material – if injected fast enough – will exceed what can escape out the top of the BOP, so it will “pile up” and fill downwards. But even this doesn’t answer the question of: how do you stop the flow out the top? You’d now just be leaking mud instead of oil and that doesn’t seem like a huge move forwards (with the exception that mud might kill off some new creatures that the oil and dispersants have not).

        • qweryous says:

          I think the concept is that the combination of the weight of the column of the selected mud when added to the pressure with which the mud is injected will be greater than the pressure of the escaping gas/oil.

          Once the flow is stopped, then replace some of the mud with cement.

            • JTMinIA says:

              So we just sit here and watch the live feed until it looks different? As in: looks like mud instead of oil? Or is there some other play-by-play feed available?

          • JTMinIA says:

            I get that part. What I don’t get is what part of all this stops the mud from flowing out the top of the BOP?

            • qweryous says:

              That is incidental to the problem IF pumping capacity is enough to make up for it.

              What is lost out the BOP does not matter IF there is enough mud flow and mud supply to slowly fill the well below the BOP.

        • bmaz says:

          From the LAT:

          To make up the pressure difference, technicians plan to pump mud into the blowout preventer, a kind of surge protector that sits on top of the wellhead. The device had failed to cut off the flow of oil when the pressure surged too high.

          The mud that will be used, drilling mud, is a dense mixture of water and minerals such as bentonite clay. It can be made even denser by adding heavier minerals such as barite and galena.

          The heavier the mud, the more it will suppress the flow — but on the flip side, the harder it will be to pump in.

          The mud will be pumped from surface vessels with a combined 50,000-horsepower pumping capacity into the internal cavity of the blowout preventer. BP officials said they planned to pump the mud at a rate of up to 40 barrels per minute.

          It’s unclear how much mud will be needed to stop the flow of oil, BP spokesman Bryan Ferguson said. It’s possible, he said, that the entire cavity of the blowout preventer will have to be filled.

          Once the oil flow has been contained, the hole will be covered with cement to permanently close the well.

          If it looks like the procedure isn’t working, perhaps because too much mud is leaking from the top of the blowout preventer, technicians plan to implement the junk shot — shooting in material to keep the mud from escaping.

          The clog would include odd objects such as rope knots, golf balls and shredded tires. These materials are picked for a reason — each odd shape serves a different function, and the more varied the shapes of the collected junk, the more effective the clog will be.

          BP officials said they could shoot a clog into the system several times, if necessary.

          • JTMinIA says:

            That’s makes sense. Junk to stop leakage out the top. I still wonder why they even doubt that mud will leak out the top, but at least I now know what they’ll do if/when it happens.

            • Mithras61 says:

              The drilling mud is quite heavy (they WERE using 16 pounds per gallon for the drilling back before things went kablooie while they were replacing the mud with water…). If they make it heavy enough and get a sufficient quantity down the well hole, the weight of the mud will keep the oil/methane from blowing back up the well and theoretically will also stop the mud coming back out of the BOP.

              This all assumes that the casing is intact and that the leak is up the well itself, and not out the side into the rock wall somewhere down the hole, and that the whole assembly is able to withstand the pressures involved without coming apart completely.

    • DWBartoo says:

      Oh dear!

      Are you implying, JTMinIA, that things could go wrong with the “junk shot”?

      Just when it seemed that Tiger could redeem himself …snatched away.

      Golf balls for the Gulf!

      Stay the Course!

      The lack of knowing what to do next is but a small handicap, there are always more holes. Of various kinds.

      ;~DW

  3. JTMinIA says:

    The main thing that seems different (on the NPR) feed is that the time stamp no longer matches the time local to where this is taking place. It did match before I went to fetch my lunch 15 min ago.

    Not that I suspect BP of hiding anything.

  4. zAmboni says:

    There are too lines,
    Inject some two component epoxy (A in one line, B in another) it will mix and in about 5 minutes the leak is sealed :).

    Sounds like it has as good a chance of working as the kill shot.

  5. Surtt says:

    Why are they showing a live feed of the riser leak instead of the BOP where they are working?

  6. puravida says:

    Quick question:

    Is Clint Eastwood involved? Or Tommy Lee Jones? How ’bout Bruce Willis?

    I’ve heard Chuck Norris is lending his expertise. What could possibly go wrong?

  7. MarkH says:

    I wonder if Gordon Brown approves of BP’s ‘failure’. Maybe he’s just an observer.

    I wonder if Bush-Cheney like what they’re seeing. Less oil on the market, higher prices, more embarrassment for Obama, etc.

    Well, right now it’s BP despite the press trying to say it’s on Obama.

    I wonder how long BP will ‘fail’ because there’s some ulterior motive. Are they in charge of the rig now or is it’s owner Ocean’s Horizon (or whatever) still running this disaster?

    When there is obvious stupidity you know there’s an ulterior motive. When you know there have been other oil spills handled better than this you know they are intentionally NOT doing all they can to fix it.

  8. bobschacht says:

    A coupla observations:

    1. What are they gonna use to pump the mud down? The only pipe they have connected is the little pipe inside the big pipe that they inserted into the broken big pipe that is the main source of the leak, and were supposedly sucking out 1000+ barrels a day. But that’s not a sealed connection. And there were two other leaks that would have to be sealed somehow, no? If they shove mud down it, why won’t it just leak out from around the little pipe inside the big pipe, as it gets pushed out by the pressure of oil & gas in the well? Or from some of the other places that are leaking? Or have they dropped another pipe down that they’re going to attach to some other location on the BOP?

    2. Suppose they do have a securely sealed connection to pump the mud down at high pressure. First, they have to pump it down at higher pressure than the oil and gas pressure from the well head. This means tremendous pressure on all the pipes and pipe fittings in the whole rig at the bottom, from the well head to the 3 leaks that we’ve been seeing. There were some indications a few days ago that there were some weak spots in the pipes that were already beginning to leak. High pressure might just blow out those weak spots, creating an even worse set of leaking spots.

    Any responses appreciated.

    Bob in AZ

  9. KrisAinCA says:

    The main issue here, that I’m seeing, is what I gather JTMinIA has been trying to say. How are they going to counteract the pressure from the oil field?

    Is this mud heavy enough to counteract that pressure? Are they sealing the BOP to prevent the mud from coming out the top? If they CAN seal the BOP to prevent the mud from coming out the top, why didn’t they just seal the fucking thing to prevent OIL from coming out the top?

    and then “clean up” which I take to essentially be grinding/filing to de-burr whatever flange is remaining and then clamp new feed lines for the mud on. Is that right? And, if so, are clamp fittings going to hold such high pressure? I have a pressure washer that only goes up to 3000 psi, and there is no way in hell you could use a clamp fitting on it; has to be threaded. So, is this gonna work on the BOP?

    BMaz, in my exposure to the industrial world of fittings and hydraulics and high pressure lines, maybe the “clean up” they’re referring to means cleaning up or “chasing” the threads on the fittings, not using a modified or rigged clamp fitting. Just a technical observation, FWIW.

    • KrisAinCA says:

      NM on the first part of that. Shoulda read Mithras61@28 first.

      I figured it had something to do with the weight of the mud. But under the types of pressure they’re talking about pumping under, what’s to stop the mud from going (to steal from Darryl Waltrip) “everwhichaway”?

      • Mithras61 says:

        Nothing. I think they’re betting on initially overwhelming the well, so to speak, by pumping in such a large volume of mud that they push more mud in than can leak out the top of the BOP. If they can do that (and keep it coming), they will eventually get enough down the hole to stop the upwards pressure from pushing it back up and can cap the hole.

        Alternatively, the second chance shot is the “junk shot” solution, which is intended to reduce the leakage even further (although it won’t STOP it, just clog it up some) and try again with the same idea and more back-pressure because of the junk.

    • bmaz says:

      Yeah, maybe. You would sure hope. But I think I saw somewhere that they were having to cut and clamp some of it. Not sure, but if they are clamping on lines with 5000+ psi, that seems kind of suspect. So I hope I misunderstood about that.

      • KrisAinCA says:

        I don’t think it would be possible to tighten a hose clamp to sustain pressures that high. I hope that they’re not clamping, as well.

        Does anyone know if there are measured pressures from the well? Do we know at what pressure this oil has been coming to the BOP? Or what pressure the oil field beneath us currently at? Any estimates?

        • PierceNichols says:

          There are a variety of types of clamp, crimp, and swage fittings for extremely high pressures that don’t look anything like ordinary industrial fittings. Not sure what they are using, but if it was inadequate, it probably would have blown already.

  10. Elliott says:

    oh for pity’s sake

    Gohmert’s using the hearing to hit on civil service unions

    and the poor dear had to do a couple all-nighters to prepare…

  11. Loo Hoo. says:

    The scientist on CNN is saying they won’t be pumping the mix into the same hole that the oil is gushing out of. There are other pipes they will be using. He said that if it does work, it will take 3-4 days to succeed because they can only put so much mud in at a time…

  12. pgrundy says:

    You know what is maddening for me is that if this was the OJ trial we’d have live coverage of every minute of every single day–we’d know who farted and when and the exact ratio of sulfur to oxygen in the fart. But here with the BP blowout, the fate of an OCEAN hangs the balance–maybe much more than that–and what do we get for news coverage? A crappy half-functional *live* feed (as if we would know if it wasn’t live) and occasional snippets of useless, untrustworthy information from a corporation making more money than God, and that’s it.

    What utter, unbelievable crap.

    • gordonot says:

      If the top kill doesn’t bop, you must junk shot.

      ok that’s not good.

      If the mud doesn’t plug, you must take a slug.

      hmmm…not quite

      If the pipe won’t constrict, you must convict!

  13. papau says:

    top kill, if fail, top hat, then junk shot

    after junk shot top kill is no longer possible so talk about new, better, top hat as we wait for relief well to intersect original hole.

    In Norway you must drill original well and also relief well at the same time.

    So why is that not the rule in the US?

    • Elliott says:

      I did not know that
      would certainly be appropriate if we are going to continue drilling at these depths

      And that leads me to ask – what are the regulations imposed by Mexico and Cuba, and any other country drilling close to our shores?

      • Petrocelli says:

        A buddy of mine is closely involved with Norway’s Oil Drilling Companies. I’ve been trying to get his expert opinion re. GofM but he’s too busy to respond. I suspect he is one of the Brains trying to find a solution to this.

          • Petrocelli says:

            Yeah, we go back a ways, so if he’s too busy to talk to me, that must mean that he’s working around the clock on this. At least I hope so because those guys know an awful lot …

      • fatster says:

        You’re kidding, I hope. You mean that gusher on the PBS vid link is not the main leak? Jeebus.

        Hmmmmm. If that’s the case, though, then is all the mud we’re seeing, spewing from at least three different holes, coming from equipment they’ve got on or somewhere near the main leak?

        • Petrocelli says:

          I would hope that these guys are attempting this behind all visible leaks … they couldn’t be that incompetent.

        • Larue says:

          Well, NPR feed and WKRG feed are now both showing the same 4 leak vid . . . anyone know what it is?

          And yeah, that single pipe vid is just the broken riser pipe . . . can’t be the main leak by any means.

          Wonder what this 4 leak vid is all about and what it is . . .

  14. porchpile says:

    I think the NPR feed is from this morning…the time isn’t right (the BP spewer cam had the correct CST time until they switched to the gadget cam). I think the NPR feed is footage from this morning.

      • Larue says:

        These vid links are drivin me nuts. We have NO idea WHAT we’re seeing (I LIKE that wkrg vid but WHAT is it? BOP? Pipe riser?).

        The NPR feed switches as said, gadget cam to riser pipe leak, where’s the BOP? Where’s the MAIN leak? Is the riser pipe the main leak now? Have the OTHER leaks been fixed? What’s leaking, if anything out of the BOP, and from what part of it?

        I’m clueless.

        • KrisAinCA says:

          The shitty part is, since our government isn’t directly involved, that we’ll only know the answers to these questions once BP decides to tell us. And I’ve got a feeling they aren’t going to tell us jack shit until they’ve solved the problem.

          They’re keeping us in the dark so we don’t know how bad it really is.

    • gordonot says:

      Huh…just like NPR to be “Always On” late and with wrong information.

      This cam is showing something very different now.

  15. econobuzz says:

    The issue was where the leak was actually coming from. Neither thought that the leak being showed could have produced the plumes, etc.

    • econobuzz says:

      Given my cynical nature, it makes sense that BP would be focusing on the least damaging part of the problem

  16. econobuzz says:

    I thought the government’s original reaction to the existence of the “plumes” was over the top. Sounded very strange.

  17. econobuzz says:

    They were very negative about what BP was doing. Caught Dylan by surprise, I think.

    • Petrocelli says:

      Apparently it’s coming from livestream.com

      EDIT: Apologies if I misunderstood your question.

      • JTMinIA says:

        Dude, I can read URLs. :)

        I want to know what part of what is leaking. It looks like a tank of some sort, which means there could be a leak in the system that feeds the kill or choke valves, which makes this whole adventure moot.

        Relatedly, but OT, I was always proud of not being the sort of person that becomes glued to a TV when some kids is either down a hole or in a balloon. I guess those days of pride are over, what with me here watching three leaks from some stupid tank.

        • Petrocelli says:

          Sorry … ;-) … I saw the URL after my initial reply, which is why I added the “EDIT” …

        • KrisAinCA says:

          In the words of some character or another in the movie Friday:

          “Naw, that was different.”

        • econobuzz says:

          which makes this whole adventure moot.

          That was the point being made on the Ratigan show. But I couldn’t completely follow the discussion.

          • econobuzz says:

            I think Ratigan summed it up by saying that the main leak wasn’t what we were being allowed to look at. The two guys seem to agree.

            • Larue says:

              Yeah, seems that way to me, also. And who knows WHAT NPR is showing, or when it was filmed (loops?).

              You folks with PC machines, how much difference are you seeing in what’s being shown on NPR, WKRG Livestream, the house.gov link and the al link?

              Two of them won’t open on my mac, so I wonder if other feeds are showing different images than what I’m seeing on NPR and WKRG . . .

  18. pgrundy says:

    The other guy owns another oil company. So they’re two Texas oil men. And they both think BP has screwed this up royal and is misrepresenting what they are doing about it.

    • Larue says:

      Oj, it seems the wkrg livestream feed is consistent . . . with a picture of clear water and some equipment.

      Anyone wanna venture what we’re looking at?

      And then, venture what that OLDER footage with 4 leaks gushin was?

  19. JTMinIA says:

    Second stream just changed to a view of the top of the BOP, but it’s still old footage on a loop.

  20. JTMinIA says:

    Forgive my silly spam, the the thing on the live stream, especially given the color, sure as h*ck looks like a Borg ship.

  21. kimbers says:

    Does anyone know which is moving? The equiptment or the ROV? Also, how far away is the ROV from whatever is being videoed? I’m trying to get some perspective. Thanks.

    • JTMinIA says:

      I assume (hee haw) that we’re looking at the middle of the side of the BOP and that the ROV is moving.

    • Larue says:

      Sure is hard to tell, isn’t it . . . you’d EXPECT the camera platform (ROV) to sway, but I wouldn’t expect the BOP to sway, IF that’s what we’re lookin at . . . . it’s all cornduzzling, just like BP and our government seem to want it to be.

      Combined with Riki Ott’s info earlier this week, Ivan’s threads, Mistress Of Misunderstood, and now Michael Whitney’s INCREDIBLE tales of laying useless boom, picking it up, tossing it in a dumpster . . . camera crews shooting b roll footage, denial of access, BP running the bird cleaning operation (why are there not more ops of this sort?) . . . and we have what appears to be the biggest cover up operation under way since naked short selling was endorsed by Jim Cramer on msnbc. N Watergate, Iran/Contra . . . .

      The depth of all the cover up, likely criminal collusion by BP, Halleybutt and TRansOcean with our elected and appointed offals . . . mind boggling the corruption from top to bottom in all areas of our lives.

  22. iawl says:

    CNN has 7 different video portals going that you can watch all at once…one has that shot with the 3 or 4 holes,with all the mud?.. then some look like the hardware stuff, and there’s also one that must be from up top because you can see a person in the feed sometimes

      • iawl says:

        …no explanations but on most of them there appears to be id info similar to what we were able to see on the single feed that was up prior to this top kill effort….but each portal is labeled on top…like boa deep 1, boa deep 2, enterprise 1, enterprise 2, rov 1, rov 2, etc….I assume these are the names of the cameras

        • Larue says:

          Thanks! Most of the text info is unreadable to me . . . on most of the vid streams.

          Coordination and presenting the video sources (not to mention DESCRIBING WHAT THEY SHOW) would be elementary to me, in regards to video production and presentation.

          One just HAS to assume keeping it all chaotic is part of blowing smoke up our asses.

          • iawl says:

            …was able to read some stuff on the one labeled BOA Deep 2..it says “Monitor Valves on BOP after Solutions” across the bottom

        • bobschacht says:

          each portal is labeled on top…like boa deep 1, boa deep 2, enterprise 1, enterprise 2, rov 1, rov 2, etc….I assume these are the names of the cameras

          “rov” refers to “remote operated vehicle” I think; it is opposed to HOV = Human operated vehicle, like the Alvin. So I’m thinking that those names refer to vehicles.

          Bob in AZ

  23. JTMinIA says:

    Now the camera-guy is being an a-hole. You can’t tease us with ten seconds of useful views and then go back to showing us the Fram oil filter on the side of the Borg ship again.

    • epiphyte says:

      I’m pretty sure the thing that looks like an oil filter is actually the coupling between the mud supply and the cut off end of the kill line. They are probably very interested in it because if it blows off it’s all over…

  24. bobschacht says:

    The live feed of the riser that Hardball is showing clearly shows 3 major links in close proximity. I have tried to find an internet link, but can’t find one.

    Bob in AZ

      • bobschacht says:

        1) Riser? What the BOP is sitting on, as in, the top of the well head?

        That’s what Matthew’s expert commenter called it.

        2) Links, you mean 3 leaks?

        Yes. Thanks,
        Bob in AZ

      • bobschacht says:

        The Hardball web site is only showing yesterday’s videos right now. Matthews has two Hardball shows; I’m referring to the first one today.

        Bob in AZ

        • Larue says:

          Ahhh, thanks.

          Leak wise, I think we’ve been fed the shot of the broken off riser pipe from early on. That being where they stuck the ‘straw’ into for useless siphoning try.

          On that shot, the oil is spewing on the right side of the sheared off pipe end. Ok, then the BOP is to the LEFT (or so) and not shown. Cuz, the pipe is still CONNECTED to the BOP/Riser Assembly, that’s where the drill hole is and the oil’s coming from.

          But then, we get shown that 3-4 leakz shot which MIGHT be the BOP . . . but no sign of the broken riser pipe leak which should be to the RIGHT of the BOP from that perspective . . .

          So, the ROV cameras are shooting from different perspectives, and really messing up MY picture of how it’s happening. I have to go back to BMAZ’s graphic up above to get it straightened out in my head again.

          Like I said, really poorly shot and presented, and that’s just not realistic given what vid production is all about these days. So they ain’t clarifying nuttin they don’t have to. And the networks and OTHER sources streaming all this vid footage are not clarifying much, either. All part of the game, I think.

          I just don’t buy the ‘imcompetency’ stories tossed about regarding the equipment, testing, permitting, and the after explosion efforts by all parties involved including our government.

          ‘Orchestrated’ imcompetency maybe, but deliberate as all hell to obscure and keep as obtuse as possible.

          On we view, and wait . . . while this disaster multiplies itself larger daily.

          • PierceNichols says:

            The riser pipe was originally ~5000 ft long and it crumpled when the rig sank. You wouldn’t necessarily expect to be able to see where it was broken off in a view of the BOP. Not sure how far it is away. All light is coming from the ROVs and the water’s not crystal clear, so visual range is sharply limited.

            The cameras that you are seeing the feed from aren’t intended for broadcast — they are intended so that the ROV operators and engineers can see what they’re doing. The journalists don’t have any more of a clue what’s going on with it than you do, so they’re just putting up all the video they can get without much framing. Fixing that would require one or more of the people who do know all about what’s going on being diverted from working on fixing the blowout to explaining things to the great unwashed. All other things being equal, I’d rather they were working on plugging this thing, don’t you?

            • Larue says:

              Thanks for your feedback, and yeh, I concur . . . but if WE can ask these questions . . . I’m sure the immensely talented tv production folks can ask them, too . . . and there’s a prof or oil guy or gal somewhere who can explain it for a hefty check.

              But yeh, I want them workin, not labelin . . . ;-)

              • PierceNichols says:

                I suspect that the answer to such a question is likely to be some version of ‘later; I’ve got work to do’. Best source for expert commentary is the Oil Drum comments section. They’ve got an open thread on this: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6511

            • econobuzz says:

              Fixing that would require one or more of the people who do know all about what’s going on being diverted from working on fixing the blowout to explaining things to the great unwashed.

              Give me a break.

          • bobschacht says:

            Larue,
            Remember that this whole disaster started with the toppling of the oil platform. Prior to that, you had the oil platform on the surface, and a pipe extending straight down to the assembly on the ocean floor. When the platform toppled, the vertical pipe from the platform would most likely have bent and broken right at the top of whatever it was connected to. I’m guessing that is where the open 4-6 inch broken pipe we’ve been seeing on TV spewing forth gas and oil. Some pictures seem to show the top, with not only the bent pipe, but various wires and things attached to the pipe, which would be monitoring the BOP in normal operation.

            The multiple leak photos look to me like a cement dome with multiple ruptures. I’m not sure where in the assembly that would be, but I’m guessing that it would be on top of the well head, on the ocean floor.

            But what do I know?

            Bob in AZ

  25. JTMinIA says:

    Bob –

    The three leaks on the white thing that looks like a propane tank wasn’t live. It was from around dawn this morning.

    • bobschacht says:

      I know it wasn’t live; I have been trying to get a clear view of the 3 leaks that can be cited here. These are obviously different leaks, or at least a different view, than the one pipe spewing oil and gas that we usually see.

      Bob in AZ

  26. fatster says:

    The Borg thing vid is showing 16:39 at the moment, whereas the PBS boring vid is showing 9:15. Presumably, both CDT.

    • Larue says:

      I’ve ditched the NPR feed, it’s useless for he most part as is most of NPR anymore . . . and PBS, too. Other than MI-5 and Soundstage . .. ;-)

      • fatster says:

        The BOP was invented in 1920? And they wonder (from the article you found): “the incident has cast doubt on whether the technology of the blowout preventer, or BOP, has kept pace with the industry’s rapid expansion into more complicated deepwater fields.” I rekkin so.

        PS Many thnx.

      • DWBartoo says:

        Thank you, Larue.

        It is clear, reading “Rules process slow …” and “Better controls …” that “they” expect to continue “extracting” at the current “rate” …”when” … “they” … “do know (what happened).

        “They” don’t seem at all “impressed” with the damage done, the “offshore industry” is simply, and from appearances, only concerned with getting back to “bidness”, as usual.

        What a waste of a disaster. Pathetic, a word which has ubiquitous application, these daze …

        DW

  27. fatster says:

    The PBS vid briefly showed what I think was another view of the Borg thing. It had “KILL” written on it (I think on a hose, but whatta I know about that?).

  28. Larue says:

    Ok, WKRG is running the 4 leak vid now . . . and the references say it’s the LIVE feed, so if we believe that . .

    Then that’s got to be the BOP, and shit’s coming out of THAT in a proliferate manner.

    I count 5 leaks if ya toss in the broken pipe . . .

    That’ll nudge the barrels per day gushing upwards I think . . .

    Gotta chase chores for a while, thanks all for this thread, and BMAZ for all you, great to see ya back in action.

    • bobschacht says:

      Ok, WKRG is running the 4 leak vid now . . . and the references say it’s the LIVE feed,

      Thanks! I had the WKRG feed running on another tab. I got a screen capture, so I can show anyone if need be. This is obviously a completely different part of the rig from the “broken pipe” pictures we’ve been seeing.

      I think the “broken pipe” pictures are from the bottom of the collapsed riser pipe that PierceNichols was talking about. The 4-leak video looks like something else entirely.

      Bob in AZ

  29. JTMinIA says:

    My new guess on the white-tank thing with multiple leaks is that it is the manifold on the line that eventually feeds the kill and choke lines. If I’m correct, then that’s mud leaking out and it’s rather doubtful that the system will be able to inject mud into the BOP with enough pressure to displace the oil.

    Hope I’m wrong.

    • kimbers says:

      I hope you are wrong too but it sure looks like a lot of that isn’t getting where they wanted it to go…

    • bobschacht says:

      This makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the “manifold” reference. I’d been wondering what to call that thing. Anyone have a link to the illustration that we’ve seen over and over again on the well head, the BOP, and this manifold thingy?

      Bill Nye the Science Guy was just on the Ed Show explaining about “mud”, and explaining some of its unusual properties. In principle, it sounds a bit like the stuff that you’re supposed to be able to blow into a tire valve that is supposed to seal small leaks in the tire. All you need is something with sufficient viscosity wrt the size of the leak. Recommended!

      Bob in AZ

      • JTMinIA says:

        Viscosity … surface tension … not going to argue with Bill Nye about the correct property, but the amount of what-ever that you’d need to hold back 5,000 psi – even in a small hole – is rather high.

        (“Manifold” is the generic term for a one-to-many coupling. Think intake or exhaust manifold, if that helps. In this case, a single line from the ship is being fed into the choke and kill lines.)

    • PierceNichols says:

      BOTE shows that the amount of pump power they’ve got on the surface should be able to deliver mud to the BOP at tens of cubic feet per second and a pressure of 10-15,000 psi. Of that, the weight of the mud column is ~4500 psi.

  30. JTMinIA says:

    One more point on all those impressive values of pressure….

    The first 2400 psi is needed to just overcome the fact that you’re a mile down.

  31. iawl says:

    …from what I can tell it seems the video feed we were watching before this top kill effort is no longer up, at least not on CNN…so we can’t “see” yet the effects this effort is having on that original leak footage…I say this because before this top kill stuff we all were able to see that one pipe laying sideways with the oil/gas gushing out and now we seem to be seeing various parts of the BOP…like the one with the 4 leaks of muddy stuff, etc ….I don’t know… just thinking/wondering/guessing

  32. fatster says:

    I’m now watching the CNN video, the one with brownish plumes coming from the manifold thingy. Anybody know what that large metal piece is that’s on the right-side of the screen?

  33. Hmmm says:

    Am I the only one getting a 2001: A Space Odyssey vibe from the silent-robot-claw video against the inky black vastness of inner space?

    Open the pod bay doors, HAL.

    • qweryous says:

      I’m getting the Capricorn One vibe.

      “When the head of NASA’s manned Mars missions discovers that the capsule meant to carry the astronauts will suffer a catastrophic failure, he forces the three astronauts to participate in a hoax by broadcasting their ‘Mission’ from a studio built at a now abandoned air force base. Over the many months of the mission, the astronauts send broadcasts to Earth on their progress and all goes well until their space capsule burns up on re-entry.”

  34. gtomkins says:

    Why didn’t they do this first?

    It seems to me that this topkill idea is inherently better than the solutions they’ve tried earlier, in that it stops all the leaks at the source. It’s sort of a manual operation of a BOP that didn’t work on auto. Why wouldn’t your first step after the BOP failed on auto, be to go with the manual version of that Plan A, the BOP? Why didn’t they do this topkill first? Take longer to set up?

    • qweryous says:

      Well.. at first it wasn’t leaking.

      Then.. it was leaking- but just a little.

      Then.. it was leaking more- but very little oil on the surface.

      Next.. it was oil on the surface but not on the beaches.

      Since everything was under control- and the Gulf of Mexico has a lot of water and very little oil.. why rush into anything?

      Well EW has a thread up today that the statements were inconsistent with the facts, so maybe there should have been a little more of something.

    • Hmmm says:

      I guess one reason is the potential risk. Some people seem to think that some of the oil is coming up from deep deep under the seabed not only through the metal pipe, but also in the tube-shaped space between the outside of the pipe and the inside of the hole they drilled into the seabed. Ordinarily this space is plugged tight by poured concrete seals every so many feet of depth… but recall, they skipped one of these shortly before the accident event, and there is evidence (rubber barfed up the pipe to the rig at the surface) that at least one seal that they did pour may have ruptured. If there really is such an alternate path up and out of the reservoir, then IIUC the concern is that blocking the pressure escape route through the pipe might force all the pressure outside the pipe, into that alternate path. Now, because that alternate path is not hardened — just muds and salt layers and crappy rock and sand — the force of the pressurized oil/gas may erode the hole walls, and therefore start to widen the space, putting the flow rate onto a track of acceleration, maybe quick acceleration.

      That would be Bad.

    • anwaya says:

      Oh, I worked the answer to that one out the other day.

      BP is an oil company. They’re not a marine life company, or a salt marsh and wetland company. The reason they tried the various “put a lid on it with a pipeline to the surface” and “stick a tube in with a pipeline to the surface” is they want to keep pumping as much oil out as possible. They don’t want to have to apply for another drilling permit, and they don’t want to have to drill all over again. They’re so greedy that they don’t want to do what saves the environment for all, they just want to keep sucking up “their” oil.

    • bobschacht says:

      The methods they tried first would have allowed them to tap the well and earn money. Top kill plugs the well, hence no income, until the relief well is in place. Shows what their priorities were.

      Bob in AZ

  35. bobschacht says:

    Rachel Maddow has a segment tonight about a blown out oil well in the Gulf of Mexico in *1979*! Ixtoc, I think it was called. According to Rachel, the techniques BP is trying now are exactly the same as the techniques used back in 1979. She showed NBC footage from 1979 news coverage.

    Is this what Admiral Thad Allen meant when he said that BP had all the expertise available, and knew what they were doing as well as anyone?

    Bob in AZ

  36. apishapa says:

    The concept of the mud is correct using mostly gel( bentonite) and barrite is something that every oil rig uses. The “junk shot” refers to LCM (Loss Circulation Material), Which should be implented right off the bat in the weighted mud as well. Mostly Cotton seed, Fermika, cedar fiber, and chopped up candy wrappers. This is if their is no mud returning and the formation is leaking below the suface. I do not see why they cannot replace the BOP and retap the well. Nipple up a wellhead and try to repay for their HUGE mistakes. I have known that they needed to weight down the mud with barrite – every oil man out there should. But why have they delayed this common procedure is the real question in my opinion. I am not totally familiar with offshore procedure but this is like oil 101. Which is totally explained in the Haliburton Mud Manual.

  37. fatster says:

    Has there been a blow-out? I was cruising the internet and saw that something had happened. I just got the wkrg video up and all I can see are little dark dots darting around in a hazy yellowish fluid. Help!

    Now at CNN and they’re showing the same thing.

    • bobschacht says:

      Last word I heard (Olbermann + Maddow) is that the live videos of the 3-4 leaks coming out of the manifold are showing *mud* billowing out of the leak holes, which means that the mud has gotten where it’s supposed to go. But it’s not plugging the holes.

      So I’m guessing next they’re going to add junk to the mud that will get stuck in the holes.

      Bob in AZ

      • bmaz says:

        I think it is supposed to be coming out; they dont care if those holes are plugged. The goal is to have the majority of the mud, or at least enough of it, go down the well bore. Leakage out the other holes is irrelevant at this point. Or so i understand anyway; could be wrong.

        • iawl says:

          I’m so confused because I read this in the article above…..”If it looks like the procedure isn’t working, perhaps because too much mud is leaking from the top of the blowout preventer, technicians plan to implement the junk shot — shooting in material to keep the mud from escaping.”

        • bobschacht says:

          I think you’re right, as long as enough mud is getting through to the BOP. But if that’s not happening, they’ve got to plug up the holes in the manifold in order to get enough mud to the BOP.

          Bob in AZ

        • Mason says:

          I think it is supposed to be coming out; they dont care if those holes are plugged. The goal is to have the majority of the mud, or at least enough of it, go down the well bore. Leakage out the other holes is irrelevant at this point. Or so i understand anyway; could be wrong.

          You’re correct, counselor.

          • JTMinIA says:

            I wouldn’t say “irrelevant.” If the rate of mud loss through those holes is close or equal to the rate at which they are pumping it in, then they are making little or no gain in terms of filling the well-pipe with mud. I believe that this is why they said they wouldn’t know if this going to work for several days. They knew they’d be losing a lot of mud out the top, etc, so they knew it wouldn’t be as simple as pump in enough mud to fill the well-pipe. Even though they know how much mud they are pumping in, they have proved themselves to be rather pathetic at estimating how much of anything is leaking, so they have no idea if and/or how fast they are filling the well-pipe.

            • Mason says:

              They think they’ve already filled the well and they may have started, or are about to start lowering the pressure behind the mud.

              • JTMinIA says:

                I’m assuming that they’re assuming the bottom plug is still in place. If so, do they have any idea how far down the pipe is open to the bore? If the leak is near the top, will they be able to get enough mud in to equal the upward pressure of the oil? It’s my understanding the cross-section area of the pipe is lot higher than the area between the pipe and the walls of the bore.

                • Mason says:

                  Does this comment at the oildrum by sixpack help?

                  When the well is flowing the pressure at the wellhead is 2200 psi. To get to 13,500 psi in the reservoir you have to account for several factors. First, is the weight of the mixture of oil and gas flowing up the well. Next is the friction pressure loss due to the 13,000 ft of casing / pipe in the well. The frictional losses in the well will vary depending on whether the flow is coming up inside the 7 x 9 7/8 casing or up the annulus outside this casing. The final pressure loss is in the reservoir itself. Depending on the thickness and permeability of the reservoir there will be varying pressure losses in the reservoir. The pressure in the reservoir will be lower right near the well and will only be 13,500 psi some distance away from the well. Of theses three components the biggest is probably the friction losses in the well, and the smallest is likely the pressure loss in the reservoir.

                  Once the well stops flowing, there will no longer be any frictional losses and the only loss will be due to the weight of the oil/gas column. The wellhead pressure will be much higher if the well is not flowing. Probably somewhere between 8,000 and 10,000 psi.

                  Link.

      • fatster says:

        and bmaz @ 185. Many thanks! Hopefully, there’ll be something on your tee vees soon that will explain whatever is happening.

        • fatster says:

          It’s clearing now, back to the same old yellowish stuff gushing from the manifold thing.

  38. fatster says:

    Some very dark stuff coming up on the right side of the manifold thing. I guess we must hope it’s just some residue from somewhere down the pipe.

  39. Professor Foland says:

    I keep reading that TopKill has never been done in deep water. What’s the relevance? Fundamentally, the success of the plugging depends primarily on the pressure differences between the reservoir and the seawater, and if anything depth actually helps you with that.

    The only relevance I can see is the length of the pipe to get the mud down–but if that were the key question as to likely success, it looks to me as if it’s already been answered–mud is coming out the leaks, so they were able to push it all the way down the tube.

    One other thing that bugs me. Having spent some time in a technical corporate environment, I can’t imagine how bad things would have to be that senior management would publicly say that the odds are 60-70%. Getting them to climb off 100% is, in general, a very very tough slog even with very “challenging” tasks; especially given the typical number of layers of bad-news filtration between technical people and senior management.

    • JTMinIA says:

      Depth also means cold. Viscosity decreases with lowering temps. That’s the only thing that I can think of since I agree that more depth means higher ambient pressure which would help.

      • Hmmm says:

        I think the temp inside the pipe is pretty darn toasty. The oil/gas way down in the reservoir are warmed by the earth. Also doesn’t generally viscosity increase as temperature decreases?

      • Professor Foland says:

        The sign is the other way, I think–viscosity generally increases with lowering temps (which is why hard drives get cranky in the cold). Which, again, would suggest that more depth is better.

        • JTMinIA says:

          Oops. I’m a car person so I’m used to the fluid used in limited-slip devices which gets stickier when heated. But you’re both right. Normal stuff is the other way around.

    • bmaz says:

      Yeah, I kind of agree. If the hoses get and stay attached, and the stuff is flowing through the BOP, then that part of the equation is essentially a closed (relatively speaking if you know what I mean) system; the water, depth and pressure don’t really matter. That all, surprisingly, seem to be the case. However, I think – think – there is still an issue that could be critical with the sealing of the casing and cement with the well wall, and there may still be a big issue there; and one that would take a while to manifest itself. That, is only my idiotic understanding though, so should be taken with a grain of salt.

  40. Mason says:

    The consensus at the oildrum is that even though the 3 or 4 leaks at the crimp in the riser just above the BOP are looking scary and the holes are getting bigger, the stuff blowing out of the holes is drilling mud, not oil and gas. This is a good sign because the oil and gas no longer is leaking.

    Put another way, there is at least a stand-off between the downward pressure exerted by the mud and the upward pressure exerted by the gas/oil/water. Their goal is to push the gas/oil/water slowly back down into the reservoir and insert a concrete plug sealing it off. If they go too fast, they may dramatically enlarge holes, spew out more mud, and lose enough pressure to permit the gas/oil/water to rebound. EZ does it is the best plan as long as they don’t run out of mud.

    As I suspected there are obstructions in the well and the casing probably is leaking into the salt formation, so there’s a long way to go.

    They are off to a good start, however.

    Reminds me of Apollo 13.

  41. Mason says:

    Splendid hallucinations are available, if you stare at the mud spurting out of the three leaks in the crimped riser above the BOP.

    • Hmmm says:

      Yes. I like it when the slow frame rate makes it look like it’s going backwards, just like a wagon wheel in an old western movie. The sampling theorem, ya just gotta love it.

  42. JTMinIA says:

    But G*d’s son is jewish. That means they probably have a bunch of lawyers as friends. You’re gunna get creamed.

  43. JTMinIA says:

    It does a bit. But it also has me very confused. It says the casing is 7 x 9 7/8. What? …the cross-section of the casing is rectangular? That’s news to me. I thought it was a round pipe inside a round hole.

    (Note that the label annulus for the area outside the casing fits what I previously thought. “Annulus” is usually only used for a round ring.)

  44. Larue says:

    So, where’s the gushing info to say it’s 5K Barrels daily, or 95K Barrels daily?

    Is the manifold new? Or has it been there all the time?

    Is the main leak from the riser pipe that’s broken (vid we’ve seen the most of early on)?

    Is there a main leak off the BOP? Was the ripped riser leaking that all along? What’s that flow rate?

    I gather that Reg Pups discount that the riser separated from the well head AND the BOP?

    In summary, thanks BMAZ, Mason, all you Pups for today’s thoughts, comments and for the linky sharing.

    What a great effort by all. ‘Preciate it. I gotta zzzzzzz . . . . . .

    • Mason says:

      Is the manifold new? Or has it been there all the time?

      It’s not a manifold. It’s the same old bent riser pipe coming out of the top of the BOP that we’ve been looking at for awhile. Looks different because the original hole is much larger and it has two new companion holes.

  45. fatster says:

    Congratulations, All! If we hadn’t sat and stared at those weird videos for hours, the top-kill probably wouldn’t have worked.

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