“Fool’s Gold:” The Polls Shared with Konstantin Kilimnik Integrated Tony Fabrizio’s Polling with Cambridge Analytica’s

The parties are releasing less redacted versions of filings related to Paul Manafort’s breach determination. Virtually all reveal things I covered closely in real time.

One thing that’s new — and newsworthy — is a passage of Rick Gates’ February 7, 2018 proffer in which he describes how he came to integrate Tony Fabrizio’s polling with Cambridge Analytica and Data Trust.

This means that the polling data that would have been shared with Kilimnik involved a polling company that he was working with Sam Patten on, on top of the Fabrizio polling he had worked with for years with Paul Manafort.

As it happens I’m working on some other Cambridge Analytica issues that make this more interesting.

The same proffer also notes that the campaign decided to focus on Pennsylvania in mid-August (even though Manafort reportedly raised it with Kilimnik in their August 2, 2016 meeting), and that at that point, “Pennsylvania … was ‘fool’s gold’ and Trump was unlikely to win there.” Which would suggest that Kilimnik “knew” that the Trump campaign was going to win Pennsylvania before the campaign itself.

Update: I see I wrote this too quickly and need to clarify two things. First, when I say that Kilimnik “knew” the campaign was going to win Pennsylvania before the campaign itself, I’m referencing the report in the Mueller Report that at this August 2 briefing, Manafort included PA among the states that he believed the campaign would win. Per Gates’ explanation, that was at a time when the campaign believed they couldn’t win PA.

As for the CA claim, it is both contrary to a lot of claims made by other witnesses to Mueller, and probably early enough to present all sorts of legal problems for Trump.

15 replies
  1. Desidero says:

    Sorry, what details made it look like Kilimnik knew they’d win PA?
    (I think it’s something you referenced elsewhere?
    The campaign decided to focus on PA because of Kilimnik? Or something with Cambridge?)

  2. pseudonymous in nc says:

    Last week the frothy brigade were all over Kilimnik’s denial that he met with Manafort in Madrid in February 2017, and that Manafort’s admission was somehow coerced without concrete evidence. (It’s helpful that they decided to reach out to Kilimnik directly: priorities, priorities.)

    A chunk of today’s unredactions deal with that topic.

    • R. Turyn says:

      Was Manafort in Madrid also in contact/coordination with Torshin, Butina’s sponsor for using NRA to wash RU money for donating to Trump?

      • Rayne says:

        Doubtful Torshin was there since he’s been wanted by Spanish authorities since 2013 related to money laundering.

          • Rayne says:

            He’d avoided Madrid once Spanish police began looking for him in 2013. A judge issued a warrant for him in 2016. If that warrant’s expired it’d be nice to read whether it was terminated or automatically expired.

  3. Victoria Meyers says:

    People – note that in addition to Mercers’ roles (Robert and Rebecca) do NOT underestimate the input and support of undermining our country in 2016 put forth by #Mark Zuckerberg. Zuck got his funding to start Facebook from Russian donors. When Zuck is asked to visit his Russian donors Zuck wears a suit. When USGov’t asks Zuck to come b4 Congress, he doesn’t bother to wear a suit. Zuck doesn’t care about America. Do you hate #GOP? If you do, then you’d better get ready to dump Facebook, and tell your friends to do so as well. Want to know why we went through the Hell of 2016 – 2020? Robert Mercer + Vladimir Putin + Cambridge Analytica (which IS basically RobtMercer) and Facebook! Every Yoho in America is on FB at this point. It’s become an excellent medium for data gathering by Bad Actors. in 2015 Zuck not only blessed CamAnalytica’s interfering with American’s FB feeds. He actually set up an Office where CamAnalytica people could work one – on – one with Facebook to place their destructive Russian propagated Memes!

    • timbo says:

      I hate to jump on to pure speculation like this but this theory would explain why FB’s internal policing was so poor in that time period.

  4. Avid Reader says:

    “This means that the polling data that would have been shared with Kilimnik involved a polling company that he* was working with Sam Patten on, on top of the Fabrizio polling he had worked with for years with Paul Manafort.”
    *does this refer to Gates or Kilimnik? Thanks!

    • dwfreeman says:

      Patten, Kilimnik, Manafort all have known each other for decades. You can look this up on Wikipedia. The revelation that they were in league with one another in the years leading up to 2016 seems more like a natural step in their relationship than a surprising political connection. Patten and Kilimnik had a DC-based company partnership in 2014. They never registered as foreign agents but consulting foreign business is all they did.

      The connection between these people is the most fascinating of the Trump election. You could look at their connection with each other and produce an Oscar-award winning movie. These characters connect Trump with Russia, with Cambridge Analytica and Putin’s decision after a dry-run test in Africa to go all-in pushing Trump’s presidential run.

      The confluence of characters, events and circumstances give us today’s history, a timeline nobody ever thought would transpire. It’s a rich tabloid of drama and political intrigue.

  5. Willis J Warren says:

    Where have the Russians done this before? I think Weissman’s book talks a bit about how it worked in Ukraine, but I’d imagine they did a great deal of this in England

  6. Eureka says:


    HAHAHA ETA: I either fat-fingered something or my mono-response sent me to the comment pokey. However, my contribution to this discussion is just that: Fuckers!

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