What Does TrooperGate Mean for November 4?

A few thoughts.

First, I sort of suspect that John McCain may have been warned TrooperGate might break badly today, when he decided mid-day to put his legacy ahead of his ego.

"I have to tell you. Sen. Obama is a decent person and a person you don’t have to be scared of as president of the United States," McCain told a supporter at a town hall meeting in Minnesota who said he was “scared” of the prospect of an Obama presidency and of who the Democrat would appoint to the Supreme Court.

Second, at least for the moment, the McCain team is standing behind Palin. They released a statement that claimed that the report had found Palin had not done anything wrong, that the investigation was partisan, and that Palin looked forward to the Personnel Board investigation results as she continues her conversation with the American people. 

In other words, Palin’s still on the ticket, for the moment. They’re probably stuck with her. After all, there are few people who would want to take over for her. I think KayBee Hutchison might help McCain–but why would you do it if you were her? Becoming McCain’s running mate is no longer a desirable career move. And if he replaced Palin with Lieberman, it would devastate Republican turnout in November. So, for now, at least, Palin remains on the ticket. 

Which leads me to my third point. McCain’s whole campaign since he picked Palin was about "mavericks" who take on the old way of doing things. Was. That’s not going to work anymore. So now he’s got an unqualified but charismatic fundie fire breather, but a really tainted claim to maverickyness (though I think McCain will claim that his refusal to push the lynch mobs is more maverickyness).

In other words, since his poll numbers are already in the 42% range, McCain’s bid to be President just got even more tougher, because his brand is for shit.

So point four. At some point, the Republicans are going to decide that McCain’s going to lose, and they need to save as many of the congressional seats as they can. They’ve already started pulling advertising out of toss up Congressional districts. But then there’s this:

So I hear (via a prominent member of the sane Republican faction) that the word on the right side of the street is that the Republican National Committee is about to pull the plug on its joint ads with the McCain campaign, and devote its resources instead to trying to save a couple of the senators who are at serious risk of losing their seats. Now this is gossip, albeit of the high class variety; take it with the requisite pinch of salt. But it points to some real vulnerabilities in the McCain campaign’s finances. McCain’s decision to opt for public funding has meant that he’s had enormous difficulty competing with the Obama money raising machine. He’s been able to partly compensate by co-financing ads with the RNC (this skirts the limits of the legislation that he himself co-wrote but is just about legal). This has kept him competitive in TV advertising, albeit still significantly outgunned. But if the Republicans are as worried as they should be about the impending elections, there will be a lot of calls on that money, and the RNC is going to have to make some tough choices. Should it keep spending money on the presidential campaign in the hope that McCain will win despite the polls, or should it instead try to minimize the damage of a McCain defeat by doing its best to stop the Democrats from making big gains in the Senate?

That is, at a time when McCain has already had to withdraw from a swing state (mine!!) because he’s broke, the RNC may well pull their funding from him and try to save Mitch McConnell or Saxby Chambliss.

So to sum up: earlier today, there was a ceiling for Obama’s support. But I think that roof just got raised.