October 22, 2025 / by 

 

The Emptywheel Primary Trash Talk

It’s here!! Yep the fateful Emptywheel Primary day! Why is it the Emptywheel Primary you ask? Well silly, because today is the Super Tuesday of GOP primaries in both Michigan and Arizona. My Mormons versus Marcy’s Hutaree. Gonna throw down baby.

I want to tell you how thrilling the excitement of the Republican primary has been for us here in Arizona. Except, well, I can’t. Because it hasn’t. It is now 5:00 pm here on the day of the primary, and I have not seen one single campaign ad on television. Other than a flurry of coverage on the day of the debate here, Nada. Zero. Zilch. As for campaign signs, which are always up everywhere in my busy area that sits at the intersection of Arcadia, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale. There are major roads leading to a lot of voters – many of them affluent – and this is a quite Republican district (it elected Ben Quayle handily just as an indicator). The pitiful tiny little Santorum sign in the picture above is the only sign I have seen within a two mile radius. That’s it.

As for Michigan, Marcy reports the same there. CNN and MSNBC says the GOP candidates have been traipsing around Michigan, but Marcy has not seen much in the way of advertising or excitement either. Charlie Pierce gives a rundown on the wonderful candidates in Michigan. Here is what Marcy reported on Twitter yesterday about the level of excitement:

Honestly though, it just seems like a non-event to me. I have yet to see an ad–not TV, direct mail, robo, signs. Nothing!

So, two decent sized primaries in pretty interesting states, for differing reasons, and…..bupkis.

It looks like Romney has Arizona solid unless there is a major upset, which is not shocking with the large contingent of Mormons here. But Michigan has been shockingly tight given Romney’s roots there, and that could really be interesting depending on how a few key counties go. And Ron Paul has better strength than you think in Michigan. So this is a thread for election chatter, and anything else in the world you got (hint FOOTBALL and other sports, etc!).

On piece of pretty interesting news today, Olympia Snowe has announced she is retiring after this term and will not run, so there is a scramble underway up in Maine. The big Dem names floated so far to replace Snowe are current Representatives Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, as well as former Representative Tom Allen. Of those, it is hard not to think Pingree has the edge, and she is already thinking about it hard. This could be a great pickup opportunity for the Dems in the Senate, and would sure help the effort to keep the majority control of the Senate. DDay has more.

So, with that, let’s hoop and yak it up for The Emptywheel Primary! Music by Bo Diddley and Roadrunner, which he first released in 1960.


Emptywheel’s Gigantic Patriotic Bad Ass Mega Super Bowl Trash Talk Houseparty

It is SuperBowl weekend and the biggest story in Indianapolis is Peyton Manning. Probably not fair to Peyton, Indianapolis or the Giants and Pats, but such is how it seems to be playing out. The melodrama has served as a reminder that the Colts are still an Irsay family enterprise and the main difference between Robert “Midnight Mayflower” Irsay and his gabby son Jim is that Jim stumbled into Peyton Manning. Who knew all these years we have been facetiously calling them the “Indianapolis Peytons”, it was pretty much accurate?

Irsay has made almost as much of a hash of things the last couple of weeks as the Susan G. Komen Foundation, which is saying something. I wonder if Ari Fleischer is helping the Colts too? Remember, Ari “helped” the Packers with the Brett Favre separation too, and the end of the Peyton era in Indy is turning every bit as ugly. Manning claims to be cleared to play and is intent on resuming his career; clearly it looks to be in another city though. Hmmm, wonder if Larry Fitzgerald has been in touch?

The Peyton Place soap opera has sapped some of the attention off of the Pats and Giants over the runup to the big game. The New Yawkers have been running their yaps about how awesome they are now and, while still the slight underdog, everybody seems to think the Giants are the team to beat. All of this likely suits Bill Belichick just fine. It is no longer possible to discount Tom Coughlin as a coach, but give Belichick two weeks and sell him short, and you are asking for trouble. It took until the AFC Championship game, but the New England defense finely gelled. Getting linebacker Brandon Spikes and safety Patrick Chung back, along with the sudden awesomeness of Vince Wilfork, has really made a difference. Julius Edelman is the weak link, but Belichick may be able to scheme around him.

The national media has focused on the health of Gronk, and he will play, but the Pats have Aaron Hernandez too. Almost have to wonder if there is not a stealth plan to spread the field vertically with Ochocinco. Heck, might as well give it a try, no one will expect it after him being in the witness protection program all year.

As for the Gents, well, Bad Eli seems to be but a distant memory and the New York offense really is clicking on all cylinders. Victor Cruz is simply an animal, and now Mario Manningham is back. Coupled with the two headed monster of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, there really is no weakness. Actually, the same can be said about the Giants defense too, led by Jean Pierre Paul and Justin Tuck. The weakness is the secondary, where the Giants lost enough corners and safeties this year to stock a couple of teams. The situation improved over the year, but if the Pats O-line gives Brady any time at all, he ought to be able to carve em up.

So, what gives? Every factor seems to favor the Giants. There is simply no way to add up all the respective factors and do anything but predict a Giants win. So, I am going to go out on a limb and jinx Marcy. Patriots win on the foot of Stephen Gostkowski. Not to mention Bill Bel just doesn’t lose to a team twice in the same year.

For some strange reason, the NFL picked Madonna for the halftime snoozapalooza. I guess Rosemary Clooney wasn’t available, so they got the next oldest dame they could find. She sure ain’t no virgin anymore. Bleech. As the game is thankfully not in Michigan, at least we don’t have to suffer through Nicleback. So we got that going for us I guess.

So, at least here in this post, we are gonna have some better music. Both cities/teams are represented. For New England, it is the Bad Boys of Beantown, the one and only J. Geils Band, with the classic “Houseparty”. And for New York, it is, of course, They Might Be Giants with the oh so appropo “Take Out The Trash”.

That is the rundown for Super Bowl XLVI. We have a lot of time for pre-game trashin, so what you got and why do you got it? This is the last football of the season, so get down and dirty and let fly the dogs of trash!


Save the Internet!

PROTECT IP / SOPA Breaks The Internet from Fight for the Future on Vimeo.

We’ve been remiss in covering the SOPA/PIPA fight. So in honor of today’s SOPA/PIPA strike, we will be on strike from 6AM to 6PM today.

In the meantime, here are some links:

Julian Sanchez, SOPA: An Architecture for Censorship

Dan Gillmor, Stop SOPA or the Net Really Will Go Dark

And for a stomach-churning “where are they now” experience, here is former Senator Chris Dodd, now MPAA President’s statement calling the decision to go on strike today an “abuse of power.”

If that doesn’t keep you busy, you can write your members of Congress via this link. Or call them directly!

I, for one, will still be on Twitter. So will #SOPAStrike, tracking how things go tomorrow.


Seasons End New Year’s Trash

Happy New Year folks! As we celebrate the start of the new year of 2012, we also today reach the end of the NFL regular season, and there are some big games on tap. So let’s get down to the nitty gritty. Also, ring in the new year with a little Jerry Jeff Walker. Don’t hear to much about Jerry Jeff anymore, but hot damn, he was, and is, really good.

No game is, nor could ever be, as big as the Tebowl between Baby Jesus and the man who wrongfully had Baby Jesus’ position at the start of the season, Kyle Orton. Really, the entire game is only between Tebow and Orton, or so it seems from the week’w worth of blather at ESPN. In all seriousness though, it truly is pretty compelling theater. The Chefs can play, as they demonstrated by rolling the Pack in the only loss for the Cheese of the year. And you know Orton would love to pound the Donkos and keep them and Baby Jesus out of the playoffs. For Denver, if they win they are in; if they lose they are not (well, unless Oakland loses to the Bolts, in which case the Donks would still win the division with a lousy 8-8 record). Simple. I would take the Chefs pretty easily here, but the game is at Mile High, and that matters. Still gonna go with the KC BBQ, but Tebow will play his heart out; Baby Jesus is nothing if not a gamer. That leaves the AFC West division championship, and its playoff berth up to the Rayduhs and Bolts game, where the edge has to ride with Carson Palmer and the ghost of Al Davis, in the Black Hole, over the Bolt who are just done (as is Norval, finally, it would appear).

The other win or go home game that is must see theater is the ‘Boys at the Gents in the NBC Sunday Night finale. Winner takes the NFC East and moves on to the playoffs, loser is toast. Here, too, the game is a tale of two quarterbacks Good/Bad Eli and Tony Romeo. They are both like Gump’s damn box of chocolates, you never know what your are gonna get; consistently inconsistent and all over the road. Romo does have a bruised up hand from the Eagles game, but no way he does not play, and a pretty fair bet he plays well. Everything points to the Giants here, including them playing at home, but I am going with a ‘Boys upset.

Ray Lewis and the Ravens are in Cincy for a key game for both teams. The Ravens lock up their division with a win, and a first round home game (and homefield throughout if the Pats lose to the Bills) in the process, which is key because the Ravens have been a bad road team this year. The Bengals, on the other hand are young and hungry for a wildcard spot, which they would nail down with a win. This could be a great game, no idea who wins it, but either way it is hard to see the Patsies losing to Buffalo when the number one seed is still on the line.

Then we have the “lose or go home” game. Colts at Jags. Both these teams have been woeful for the season, although the Not-Peytons have a shocking two game winning streak going. The problem for the Colts is, of course, a win against the Jags might well put them out of Luck. Andrew Luck that is. Thing is, Jags may well want another QB in the draft and have nothing to gain with a win either. Jacksonville has already fired its coach, Jack Del Rio, and the franchise was just sold. In short, they are a mess. This will be a really interesting game to see who loses the best and how.

The last of the killer klashes this week is another Black and Blue grudge match, this time between the Kitties and the Cheese. The Pack has nothing to play for having already wrapped up the NFC top seed and home field throughout the playoffs. If Rodgers plays at all, it will likely not be much. Look for Matt Flynn to get most of the time behind center, with Graham Harrell getting a little game experience too. The Kitties, however, need to win to keep the fifth seed, which could mean the difference between playing the Giants/Cowboys winner or the Saints. That is healthy motivation. Lions should win this one, but if they do, it will be their first win on the Frozen Tundra in 20 years.

Titans at the Texans also has some playoff implication, but not many. Titans slim hopes for making the postseason show depend on a win against the Texans, and a LOT of help. Texans get Andre Johnson back and that is good because they need to get some game chemistry between him and young TJ Yeats before the playoffs begin. I rate this as a toss-up. The rest of the teams are pretty much just playing out the string.

We will either update or, more likely, just put up a new thread for all the college bowl extravaganza starting Monday. So, let us all take a Tee Bow, and raise a frosty. Commence trashing!


Drone War Secrecy and Kill or Capture

As we stand on the doorstep of President Obama signing into law the new NDAA and its dreaded controversial provisions, there are two new articles out of interest this morning. The first is an incredibly useful, and pretty thorough, synopsis at Lawfare of the new NDAA entitled “NDAA FAQ: A Guide for the Perplexed”. It is co-written by Ben Wittes and Bobby Chesney and, though I may differ slightly in a couple of areas, it is not by much and their primer is extremely useful. I suggest it highly, and it has condensed a lot of material into an easily digestible blog length post.

The second is a long read from the Washington Post on how secrecy defines Obama’s drone wars:

The administration has said that its covert, targeted killings with remote-controlled aircraft in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and potentially beyond are proper under both domestic and international law. It has said that the targets are chosen under strict criteria, with rigorous internal oversight.
….
“They’ve based it on the personal legitimacy of [President] Obama — the ‘trust me’ concept,” Anderson said. “That’s not a viable concept for a president going forward.”

The article goes on to state how the CIA, and the majority of voices in the White House, are fighting tooth and nail for continued utmost secrecy lest any of our enemies somehow discover we are blowing them to bits with our drones. This is, of course, entirely predictable, especially now that the former head of the CIA leads the military and the former military chief for the greater Af/Pak theater which has long been ground zero for the drone kill program, Petraeus, is the head of the CIA.

But then the Post piece brings up our old friend, the OLC:

The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel has opposed the declassification of any portion of its opinion justifying the targeted killing of U.S. citizen Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen this year. Awlaki, a propagandist for the Yemen-based al-Qaeda affiliate whom Obama identified as its “external operations” chief, was the first American known to have been the main target of a drone strike. While officials say they did not require special permission to kill him, the administration apparently felt it would be prudent to spell out its legal rationale.
….
Under domestic law, the administration considers all three to be covered by the Authorization for Use of Military Force that Congress passed days after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In two key sentences that have no expiration date, the AUMF gives the president sole power to use “all necessary and appropriate force” against nations, groups or persons who committed or aided the attacks, and to prevent future attacks.

The CIA has separate legal authority to conduct counterterrorism operations under a secret presidential order, or finding, first signed by President Ronald Reagan more than two decades ago. In 1998, President Bill Clinton signed an amendment, called a Memorandum of Notification, overriding a long-standing ban on CIA assassinations overseas and allowing “lethal” counterterrorism actions against a short list of named targets, including Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants. Killing was approved only if capture was not deemed “feasible.”

A week after the Sept. 11 attacks, the Bush administration amended the finding again, dropping the list of named targets and the caveat on “feasible” capture.

“All of that conditional language was not included,” said a former Bush administration official involved in those decisions. “This was straight-out legal authority. . . . By design, it was written as broadly as possible.”

This brings us back to the notable October 8, 2011 article by the New York Times’ Charlie Savage on his viewing of the Awlaki targeting memo relied on by the Obama White House for the extrajudicial execution of Anwar al-Awlaki. Marcy, at the time discussed the incongruity of the collateral damage issue and the fact Samir Khan was also a kill in the targeted Awlaki strike.

I would like to delve into a second, and equally misleading, meme that has been created by the self serving and inconsistent secret law Obama has geometrically expanded from the already deplorable Bush/Cheney policy set: the false dichotomy in the kill or capture element of the Awlaki kill targeting.

It has become an article of faith that Awlaki could neither have been brought to justice in Yemen nor, more importantly, captured in Yemen and brought to justice in an appropriate forum by the United States. It has been a central point made in the press; here is the New York Time’s Scott Shane in early October:

The administration’s legal argument in the case of Mr. Awlaki appeared to have three elements. First, he posed an imminent threat to the lives of Americans, having participated in plots to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner in 2009 and to bomb two cargo planes last year. Second, he was fighting alongside the enemy in the armed conflict with Al Qaeda. And finally, in the chaos of Yemen, there was no feasible way to arrest him. (emphasis added)

Shane was relying on Bobby Chesney, a University of Texas law professor, and granted an expert in the field who also is a principal at Lawfare Blog. It is the same meme propounded by not only other reporters, but by other leading experts. Here is Ben Wittes in Lawfare stating the assumption as a given fact. Here is Jack Goldsmith (also of Lawfare) espousing the same in a widely read Times Editorial. Here is Peter Finn and the venerable Washington Post doing the same.

Just how does this meme set in and become the common wisdom and fact of such wise men (and I mean that term literally; these are smart people)? Because, of course, that is what the US government tells them, as well as us. With nothing but the self-serving, selective dribble leaking by the Administration of supposedly classified information, there is no specific factual basis from which to dissect the truth. And that is the way the Administration likes it; it always gets messy when citizens actually know what their government is doing in their name.

On the Awlaki targeted execution, it was not only desirable for people to believe the government’s stated basis, it was critical. Because the house of cards falls otherwise without the necessity element, and it becomes no more than a convenience kill wherein Mr. Obama was too lazy and hamstrung by his own political considerations to do otherwise. Here is how Charlie Savage describes the predicate element in the Awlaki OLC memo in his, so far, seminal report:

The Obama administration’s secret legal memorandum that opened the door to the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki, the American-born radical Muslim cleric hiding in Yemen, found that it would be lawful only if it were not feasible to take him alive, according to people who have read the document.

The [OLC] lawyers were also told that capturing him alive among hostile armed allies might not be feasible if and when he were located. (emphasis added)

In fairness to Mr. Savage, he more than touches on the import of the issue by including a question from Samir Khan’s father:

“Was this style of execution the only solution?” the Khan family asked in its statement. “Why couldn’t there have been a capture and trial?”

And Charlie himself posits the following:

The memorandum is said to declare that in the case of a citizen, it is legally required to capture the militant if feasible — raising a question: was capturing Mr. Awlaki in fact feasible?

It is possible that officials decided last month that it was not feasible to attempt to capture him because of factors like the risk it could pose to American commandos and the diplomatic problems that could arise from putting ground forces on Yemeni soil. Still, the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan demonstrates that officials have deemed such operations feasible at times.

So Obama Administration “officials decided last month that it was not feasible to attempt to capture” Awlaki. Most everybody has taken that on faith, but should they? The US had had Awlaki under intense surveillance for quite some time. The US also claims to be strong strategic partners with Pakistan. It is doubtful Yemen really cared all that much about Awlaki, as he was a noisy American. Who says there was no way between the combined capabilities of the US and Yemen Awlaki could not at least be attempted to be captured?

Now, I am not saying it is clear Awlaki could have been captured and brought to trial, just that it is not a given that it was impossible. Who makes those decisions, and on what exact basis and criteria? Anwar Awlaki, for everything you want to say about him, had never been charged with a crime, much less convicted of one, and he retained Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Amendment rights as a US citizen. If the precedent for extrajudicial execution of American citizens is being set at the whim of the President, then American citizens should know how and why.

So, hats off to Charlie Savage for having raised the critical question on necessity; problem is, however, it was only a question. There was, and is, no more specific information for him, or us, to go on from the Administration. Which leaves the remainder of the citizenry and chattering classes effectively working off of the glittering generalities and assumptions propounded by the government. And, in case you did not notice, there was effectively no discussion of the kill or capture paradigm in all the hubbub of the recent NDAA discussion. So, we are no further along in this regard than we were when Awlaki was terminated with prejudice. I will likely come back to the kill or capture paradigm at a later date, because it is a fascinating discussion in terms of history and protocols.

Which brings us back to where we started here. These are life and death matters for those, like Awlaki (and Samir Khan too, as it is quite likely the US had reason to know he was in Awlaki’s “collateral damage” radius), that are placed on the President’s kill list and, to the rest of us, are of rude foundational importance to the very existence of American rule of law and constitutional governance. For all the sturm and drang surrounding the release of the torture memos, the resulting discussion has been sober, intelligent, and important. The publication of the torture memos has provided a template not only showing how it can be done, but proving that it can and should be done.

The same as was the case with the OLC torture memos holds true in regards to the OLC kill list targeting memo for Anwar al-Alawki and the related memos the Obama Administration is relying on. The documents should be released by the Obama administration with no more than the absolute minimal redaction necessary to truly protect means and methods.

If the Obama administration insists on hiding such critical knowledge and information necessary for the knowing exercise of democracy within the United States, then Mr. Obama and his administration should have the intellectual consistency and honesty to investigate and prosecute those within his administration responsible for the serious leaks to Charlie Savage and the New York Times of classified information that has previously been deemed in court and under oath to be “state secrets”. If you can prosecute Bradley Manning, surely there should be some effort to bring Savage’s leaker to justice. Except there will be none of that, because it was almost certainly ordered by the White House as a selective propaganda ploy to bolster their extrajudicial killing program.

As hard as it is to believe, I, at the time, contacted the Obama Department of Justice and they oficially stated “no comment” when these questions were propounded. In light of the fact the leak almost certainly came from extremely high up within the Obama administration, and was done with the express knowledge and consent of Mr. Obama himself to crow and take political advantage of his kill, it is hard to say that this is shocking. And, again, this is exactly the problem when the United States government plays self-serving games with its own classified information – the people, and the democracy they are tasked with guiding, all lose.

[The forever classic Emptywheel “Killer Drone” graphic is, of course by the one and only Darkblack]


Pro Football Trash Talk

Yeah, we are in the doldrums between end of the college football season, start of the playoff and Super Bowl stretch for pro football and the start of the baseball season. Oh, and, of course, March Madness. Here is what I am having an, uncomfortably, hard time giving a darn about: the NBA.

Just as appropriate filler info, I used to “Love This Game”. No joke. I had Phoenix Suns season tickets since before the start of the Kevin Johnson/Tom Chambers years, straight through the Charles Barkley fun and into the after-period where the doldrums set in. Chuck was the icing on our cake, but the stadium was already a sellout and the team already a serious contender in the league championship well before he came. That said, there has never been, before or after, quite the excitement and buzz that Sir Charles brought. It was a magical time, even if it was second fiddle to Air Jordan and the Bulls (though by the slightest of margins in 1993). The point is, Jordan is gone, the Chuckster is gone, Magic and Bird are gone; it is all gone. There are only a couple of stars that have the panache and balls of the old crowd left in the league, such as Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzsky. I would love to say there is a “new generation” taking over in the NBA. But, unless you consider Kobe the “new generation”, the new generation in the NBA is a bunch of self entitled, selfish, jerk punks like “King” LeBron James. Bleech.

Navy has brought the big battleship guns and beat Army (again) in a surprisingly hard fought and close battle of the armed forces. Congratulations Navy! Which brings us to the real Trash, pro football. The NFL! Yea!

Aaaaannnddd the big game today is, of course, the TEBOWL! That’s right T and the Bows take on Da Bears. Both teams come into the game with a 7-5 record and playoff aspirations. If there is a team in the league that has the defense to bust up the Baby Jesus train, it is the Bears. Urlacher and the boys are tough and disciplined. But the Broncos have been kicking ass and taking names on defense lately too, and Chicago will not have Jay Cutler or Matt Forte. That is bad news, Bears fans. Also, the game is at Mile High, which is a tough venue. Should be pretty interesting to see if the messiah can keep it up.

The Rayduhs, who are tied with the Tebows at the top of the AFC West, travel to The Frozen Tundra to visit Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood. Hard to pick against the Pack here, but Oakland is a pretty good team. Carson Palmer seems to be settling in, but running back Darren McFadden (right foot) and big-play receivers Jacoby Ford (left foot) and Denarius Moore (right foot) are all out. Combined with a porous pass defense, that spells trouble for the Raiders.

The other interesting game is the Cowboys and Giants. The ‘Boys are 7-5 and the Gents have slid to 6-6, but this game will be for the NFC East lead heading down the stretch, so it is critical. Romo has been playing pretty well lately, and rookie DeMarco Murray from Oklahoma is an emerging star at running back. The Giants have been all out of whack on both sides of the ball. The game is in the Big D. Everything seems to be lined up for a Dallas win. So I am taking the Giants here.

The Bills are out Randiego’s way to meet the Bolts. Both clubs have fallen off the face of the earth, and are at 5-7. Will be interesting to see which one actually wants to step up and win a game here. Maybe they can actually pull off a rare tie here; that would be fitting. Houston at Cinci will be a good test to see if the Bengals can capitalize on the Texans being without a first line QB and big play Andre Johnson. TJ Yeats kept the team in the game and won last week, this will be another good test of how he will hold up. The Kitties host the Vikings. Ponder has a touchy hip, but likely will start; Adrian Peterson is hobbled, but will also likely play after missing last week’s game. Suh, of course, is suspended and, hopefully, won’t crash his car on the way to the local sports bar to watch his team play. Detroit ought to be able to win this and get back on track. If not, stick a fork in them. Patsies are at the Skins and should make pretty easy work of that. The rest of the games are just not particularly noteworthy.

That is the rundown; make some noise in comments. Oh, and nothing has changed in Major League Baseball.


Florida Containment Dome Crackers: How Saving $15 Million Ended Up Costing $2.5 Billion

Almost single-handedly, reporter Ivan Penn at the Tampa Bay Times (formerly known as the St. Petersburg Times) has been informing the world of the disgusting spectacle taking place only sixty miles southwest of my home at the Crystal River nuclear power plant in Florida. The plant has been shut down since Progress Energy decided in 2009 that they could save $15 million in the costs of managing the replacement of the plant’s steam generators by managing the project itself. The ongoing mismanagement of the project has resulted in at least three major cracks in the containment building for the reactor and a projected cost of at least $2.5 billion to repair a plant that was designed to operate only through 2016. The second crack came when repairs were attempted on the first crack. And yes, these crackers just couldn’t learn, and the third crack came while they were contemplating how to repair the second crack instead of bringing in experts who actually knew what they were doing.

In a November 6 article from this year, Penn describes many of the details above about how Progress Energy chose not to use one of the two experienced engineering firms to manage the project in order to save $15 million in management fees. But because representatives of one of those firms, Bechtel, were present as part of the construction phase of the project, Progress still received warnings about the strategy they had chosen:

One warning:

Charles Hovey was an experienced construction foreman who had worked on similar projects at other nuclear plants. Progress, he observed, planned to use a different procedure to cut into its containment building.

“I have never heard of it being done like this before and I just want to express my concerns to you one last time.”

Another warning:

“Why are we doing tendons different here than all other jobs?” site supervisor John Marshall asked in an e-mail sent to Sam Franks, another Bechtel supervisor.

The “tendons” are steel cables that reinforce the concrete slabs from which the containment building is constructed.  Before cutting into a slab, as Progress planned to do in order to replace the steam generators, it is necessary to loosen the tendons.  All previous projects had loosened the tendons non-sequentially, while Progress decided, inexplicably, to loosen them sequentially. Furthermore, previous successful projects involved loosening all tendons prior to cutting, but Progress chose to loosen just less than half.

On November 5, Penn addressed the prospect of the repairs at Crystal River being covered by insurance:

Progress Energy’s insurer has launched its own review of the outage at the Crystal River nuclear plant to determine whether insurance will cover repairs to the broken reactor building.

Bill Johnson, Progress’ president and chief executive officer, told investors Thursday that the utility’s insurer has appointed a special committee of its board and hired engineering consultants to review the Crystal River plant.

Progress wants the insurer, Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), to cover three-quarters of the $2.5 billion it will cost to fix the nuclear plant, which first broke during a maintenance and upgrade project in fall 2009. Costs not covered by NEIL would rest on the shoulders of the utility’s customers or investors.

And there’s one more tidbit about NEIL in the article:

“This is a complex matter, and it’s in our best interest to work cooperatively with NEIL to provide them with all the information they need to make their coverage decisions,” Johnson, who sits on NEIL’s board of directors, said during a quarterly report webcast Thursday.

Yup, that’s right. The CEO of the company that caused this craptastic adventure also sits on the board of the insurer that will decide whether to cover the fiasco.  Conflict of interest much?

Here is how NEIL describes itself on its website (this is a screencap since the text on the page can’t be copied:

And Johnson is not alone.  A quick review of the NEIL Board of Directors finds a token insurance executive, a token banker and a token legal expert, but the bulk of the board consists of nuclear energy company executives.  Even if Johnson recuses himself, it’s hard to see NEIL not choosing to cover Progress Energy’s mistake, even though Penn points out that Progress has not received any payments from NEIL for repair work done in the last year.

And just to drive home the folly of Progress’ efforts, here are a few excerpts from Penn’s article on the third major crack:

Staff of the Public Service Commission did not hear about the third crack until Oct. 18, when a Progress engineer, John Holliday, made passing reference to it in a deposition. He was asked about his role in the Crystal River repair after the first crack shut down the plant in 2009.

“We’ve had two more” cracks, Holliday said. “Both of those (cracks) are larger” than the first.

But it gets better:

Six 42-inch-thick concrete panels form the walls of the containment building — the final barrier against deadly radiation escaping into the atmosphere during an accident. Three of those panels have suffered serious cracking, or “delaminations” in engineer-speak.

Panel 3 broke in October 2009, as workers cut a 25-by-27-foot hole in the concrete wall to replace steam generators inside the building.

Panel 5 broke in March after Progress repaired panel 3.

Panel 1 broke in July, while Progress tried to figure out how to repair panel 5.

So far, it is expected that Florida rate-payers will bear at least one fourth of the cost of the repairs to Crystal River.  Should NEIL miraculously refuse to cover the remaining loss, it will be very interesting to see just how that cost gets split among Florida rate-payers and the stockholders of Progress.  Either way, though, it will be Florida’s customers of Progress who will bear the bulk of that burden.

There is one small glimmer of hope against that development, though:

Florida’s Public Counsel J.R. Kelly calls the separation of a concrete wall at Progress Energy Florida’s Crystal River-3 nuclear unit “a huge construction negligence case,” and says that Progress does not appear to have been very prudent in its decision making.

/snip/

“Right now we are smack dab in the middle of discovery and depositions, and we have not formulated a final position on” whether Progress Energy prudently managed the steam generator replacement project, Kelly said.

“But a lot of signs are certainly leading us to believe that Progress was not prudent in its decision-making … If that turns out to be the case, we will argue very strongly [to the Florida Public Service Commission] that ratepayers should not have to bear the costs” of repairing Crystal River and providing replacement power. “This is becoming a huge construction negligence case,” he added.

What becomes especially enraging about this entire spectacle, though, is that this plant is only slated to operate through 2016 and the request by the industry in general to extend first generation plants from a 40 year to a 60 year lifespan has not yet been approved:

The Crystal River plant is hardly new. It’s just a few years away from reaching its 40-year lifespan, when the industry originally intended to shut down and decommission its first-generation plants.

Now power companies want federal permission to continue operating their aging nuke plants for another 20 years. In Crystal River’s case, that means extending the life of the plant from 2016 to 2036.

Here’s the trick. Progress Energy says it will spend billions to fix its broken nuclear plant. But the company still lacks an explicit okay from the feds to run the plant until 2036.

So the bottom line is that Progress Energy is seeking $2.5 billion in insurance funds to repair a plant that could have only two years left in its licensed lifespan once repairs are complete. How can that be a prudent investment?

 

 


Bibi, Albright (and Warrick) on Iran Nuke Report: “But Wait, There’s More!”

Because there hasn’t been an immediate, multinational hue and cry to bomb Iran over the leaked IAEA report, both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and David Albright, the designated point person for fomenting fears over Iran’s nuclear program in the United States, have been reduced to using their best Billy Mays voice to boom out “But wait, there’s more!”  Netanyahu’s blathering has been dutifully written down and published by Reuters while Albright has found a willing mouthpiece in the Washington Post’s Joby Warrick

Netanyahu told his cabinet yesterday that Iran is closer to getting the bomb than the IAEA report suggests.  Here is how Reuters reported his remarks:

Iran is closer to getting an (atomic) bomb than is thought,” Netanyahu said in remarks to cabinet ministers, quoted by an official from his office.

“Only things that could be proven were written (in the U.N. report), but in reality there are many other things that we see,” Netanyahu said, according to the official.

The Israeli leader did not specify what additional information he had about Iran’s nuclear program during his cabinet’s discussion on the report by the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released last week.

Yup, Netanyahu is telling us he knows more about Iran’s nuclear technology than the rest of the world knows, but he won’t give us details and he can’t prove it.  And, of course, it is important to believe everything Netanyahu says.

Meanwhile, in Washington, Joby Warrick saw fit this morning to devote an entire article to building the case that Vyacheslav Danilenko was transferring crucial nuclear technology to Iran rather than helping Iran to develop nanodiamond technology.  The accusations against Danilenko come almost exclusively from David Albright and a “report” on Danilenko prepared by Albright’s Insitute for Science and International Security.  Warrick does include one brief quotation from a former CIA Iran analyst on how analysts characterize the flow of information into potentially covert programs and a statement from Josh Pollack of Arms Control Wonk.  I will return to the Pollack quote below.

Now that Danilenko’s work on controlled high explosives detonations creating nanodiamonds has been put forward as a potentially peaceful use of the technology he was helping to develop in Iran, those who promote the view that Iran is working hard now to develop a nuclear weapon find it necessary to provide a stronger connection between Danilenko’s work and development of a bomb trigger device.  At the same time, Danilenko has responded to press inquiries with a direct “I am not a father of Iran’s nuclear program” and “I am not a nuclear physicist.”

First, Warrick paints a picture of desperation driving Danilenko to contact Iran:

When the Cold War ended, thousands of weapons scientists suddenly confronted a harsh choice: remain at the weapons institutes at drastically reduced wages or reinvent themselves for the post-Soviet, capitalist economy. For Danilenko, the choice was clear: His knowledge of explosively produced diamonds, called “ultra-dispersed diamonds” or “nanodiamonds,” was his ticket out of Chelyabinsk-70.

Danilenko moved to Ukraine, created a company, and searched for investors and partners throughout the West, including the United States. But he struggled as a businessman, and soon his European ventures were short of cash and at risk of collapsing.

In 1995, he decided to do what numerous other Russian weapons scientists before him had done: He contacted the Iranian Embassy to inquire about possible joint ventures, according to the ISIS report, which drew from IAEA documents and interviews.

Warrick then goes on to explain how Danilenko’s inquiry was answered by the head of the laboratory that the IAEA suspects as being the center of Iran’s work to develop a nuclear bomb.

The problem here, as it is with all efforts to understand both Danilenko’s earlier work with the Soviets and his subsequent work with Iran, is that “dual use” technology poses a particular challenge in that there are both civilian and military uses.  The precisely timed, spherical high explosive technology in which Danilenko specializes is a prime example of this sort of dual use technology.  Warrick makes an issue of Danilenko’s work being “highly classified”  by the Soviets, but because the technology can be used to trigger nuclear devices in missile warheads, it undoubtedly would have been classified in the US at that time, as well.

Getting back to Warrick’s quote from Josh Pollack of Arms Control Wonk, we see that it is in reference to a ” fiber-optic instrument that measures precisely when a shock wave arrives along thousands of different points along the surface of a sphere”.  Pollack’s quote is “This type of system appears suitable for testing a sphere of conventional explosives designed to compress the fissile core of a nuclear warhead” and Warrick also points out that “Such instruments have few, if any, applications outside nuclear warhead design”. Left unsaid, however, is that if one is using the controlled explosions to produce nanodiamonds, it seems the monitoring equipment would be just as useful.  Wouldn’t it be just as valid to state that the monitoring technology is “suitable for testing” nanodiamond production technology?  That makes one of the “few, if any applications outside nuclear warhead design” for the monitoring technology Danilenko’s known work in nanodiamond production.

In the end, it doesn’t seem that there is sufficient information yet to place Danilenko’s work along the continuum between completely civilian and completely military intentions.  And even if Danilenko’s work itself in Iran were completely civilian in its orientation, we don’t know the extent to which it has been funneled by Iran into a weapons program.  Albright seems eager for the world to conclude that there is indeed a military intent by the Iranians in developing this technology, but the evidence that has been presented so far is not sufficient for a concrete conclusion.

It should be pointed out once again that the explosive trigger device is used so that nuclear bombs can be reduced in size to fit on a missile warhead.  That makes the reports over the weekend of a blast that killed the Iranian head of its missile program very interesting in terms of both his death and the timing of it so close on the heels of the IAEA report.  From Reuters:

Iran buried Monday a senior military officer it called the “architect” of its missile defences, killed in a massive explosion at a Revolutionary Guards’ arms depot that authorities said was an accident.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attended the ceremony for Brigadier General Hassan Moqaddam and the 16 other Revolutionary Guards who died in the explosion at their military base Saturday. The blast was so big it was felt in the capital Tehran, some 45 km (28 miles) away.

/snip/

“Martyr Moqaddam was the main architect of the Revolutionary Guards’ canon and missile power and the founder of the deterrent power of our country,” Hossein Salami, the deputy head of the Revolutionary Guards, said in a eulogy at the funeral, state broadcaster IRIB reported.

The AP report on this incident, however, contains a very interesting aside:

An exiled Iranian dissident group, the Mujahedin-e Khalq or MEK, has claimed that the blast hit a missile base run by the Revolutionary guard rather than an ammunition depot.

Somehow, it is much easier to believe that Moqaddam would be at a missile base than that he would be at a random ammunition depot.  That leaves one to wonder if this blast was as “accidental” as the losses of the centrifuges that were taken out by the Stuxnet worm.

 

 


Commercializing Campaign Ads: California Roll For Mayor

We have an interesting phenomenon underway here in Phoenix – the outright commercialization of political campaign ads. It is the handiwork of a Scottsdale sushi restaurant, Stingray Sushi. In short, a corporation is using a political race as a straight up advertising vehicle for their product, without officially supporting or donating to either candidate. The ploy started off just riffing on hot button political issues such as:

“Bill Clinton Likes My Sushi”
“Larry Craig Likes Our Bathrooms”
“Blagojevich is the Best Tipper”

Stingray then morphed into playing off of a local initiative drive on the ballot. But now they have stepped square into a heated political race between competing candidates.

The current, and heaviest manifestation of this novel activity by Stingray to date, is the current Phoenix Mayor’s race, which will be decided on November 8. The race itself is supposedly non-partisan, however it pits longtime uber-Republican operative Wes Gullett, who was the chief of staff for disgraced (and convicted) Governor Fife Symington and has served in several administrative and campaign capacities for John McCain over the years, against a moderate, but fairly clear Democrat, former City Councilman Greg Stanton.

If the question is “is this legal”? Yes, it appears to be quite legal under both state and federal campaign law, although Stingray has had to put stickers on their signs advising that it is “Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s campaign committee.”

The ad campaign is the brainchild of a local ad and political consultant by the name of Jason Rose. I will have to give Jason credit here, it is pretty inventive and has certainly captured the imagination of Phoenix residents. Everybody has seen them, even my high school daughter talks about them. My wife thinks they are hilarious catch phrases now. Anytime I mention politics, she blurts out “Mayors Are Yum Yum!”.

Now, here is the better question – where does this go from here? Stingray is playing both sides of the electoral race fence in this campaign, but it is hard to believe others necessarily will do the same. Will bigger corporations exercise their right to free political speech decreed in Citizens United by branding themselves to a particular candidate? Is it a good thing to have electoral races clouded by raw corporate advertising pitches as opposed to actually taking a side?

I honestly do not know the answers to the questions raised, not the plethora of others that arise from this ad campaign. But I doubt it is a one off deal, you can expect to see other similar ad campaigns attached to elections in the future. What do you think??


Pakistan Update: 18,000 Flee Khyber Area, Haqqani Insist Taliban Must Lead Talks

Last week’s visit by a delegation of high-ranking US officials to Pakistan featured the ironic use of the US Secretary of State to deliver a newly militarized message to the Pakistanis regarding the way forward, with the introduction of the “fight, talk, build” catchphrase.  Although the US clearly urged Pakistan to attack the Haqqani network in its safe haven in North Waziristan, it appears that Pakistan is taking part of the message to heart and is attacking militants, but the attacks are in the Khyber Agency, two agencies away from North Waziristan.  At the same time, we learn that the Haqqanis are now insisting that if they take part in talks with the US, the talks must include the Taliban in a leading role.

Pakistan’s Dawn informs us through an AFP story that Pakistan’s army has ordered over 18,000 civilians to evacuate portions of the Kyber Agency because of military action there:

At least 18,000 people have fled their homes in Pakistan’s tribal district of Khyber, fearing a fresh onslaught of fighting between the army and Islamist militants, officials said Tuesday.

Families streamed out of the district, a flashpoint for Taliban and other violent groups on the Nato supply line into neighbouring Afghanistan, after the army ordered them to leave because of military action going on in the area.

/snip/

“Around 3,200 families, up to 18,000 people, have arrived in the Jalozai refugee camp and we are making arrangements to facilitate them,” Adnan Khan, spokesman for the disaster management authority of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, told AFP.

It will be interesting to see if the US accepts this action by Pakistan as a good faith effort to respond to last week’s demands.  Cutting down on the frequency of attacks on US convoys into Afghanistan might help to soften the US reaction to Pakistan’s refusal to carry out attacks on the Haqqanis in North Waziristan.  The Torkham Crossing is the most heavily used supply route into Afghanistan and it sees a steady stream of tankers delivering fuel.  These tankers often are subject to attack in Pakistan, so if the current action in Kyber reduces those attacks, the US should see this as a positive development.

Meanwhile, the Haqqani network tells Reuters that they will not take part in direct talks with the US unless the Taliban play a lead role:

The Afghan Haqqani insurgent network will not take part individually in any peace talks with the United States and negotiations must be led by the Taliban leadership, a senior commander told Reuters on Tuesday.

“They (the Americans) would not be able to find a possible solution to the Afghan conflict until and unless they hold talks with the Taliban shura,” said the Haqqani group commander, referring to the Taliban leadership council.

/snip/

“This is not the first time the U.S. has approached us for peace talks. The Americans had made several such attempts for talks which we rejected as we are an integral part of the Taliban led by Mullah Mohammad Omar,” he said.

The fact that the Haqqanis now are laying out the conditions for taking part in talks would appear to be progress toward talks eventually taking place.  The question now becomes how much the US will insist on its “fight” part of “fight, talk, build” preceding the actual talks.

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Originally Posted @ https://www.emptywheel.net/emptywheel/page/155/