Here’s the way I figure this math, from the Iowa Straw Poll.
They had 24,000 voters in 1999.
They wanted 20,000 voters today.
They got 14,000.
That says, presumably, the Iowa Republican Party wrote off 4,000 votes because Giuliani and McCain pulled out and Thompson’s not in yet (24,000 minues 20,000).
But that still leaves 6,000 people (20,000 minus 14,000) they expected–and didn’t get.