women’s rights

Future Forecast: Ignoring Half the Picture Yields Surprisingly Poor Results

[adapted: Magic 8-Ball by Andres Rueda via Flickr]

[Adapted: Magic 8-Ball by Andres Rueda via Flickr]

It’s that time of year when we not only take a look backward, but a look forward to the future. Unfortunately in doing so, we rely heavily on so-called experts, whose vision suffers from two fundamental limitations:

  • They’re overwhelmingly male; their viewpoints are published more frequently than those of women;
  • They depend frequently on male-dominated science and technology in constructing their forecasts, rather than looking at shifts in human conditions.

Once a upon a time in my career, I rubbed shoulders with futurists, both in corporate visioning and in business intelligence. They made a few eye-opening predictions that I pooh-poohed at the time. In 1999 one futurist told me that fuel cell technology wouldn’t be commercialized for more than 10 or 15 years. Another report circa 2000 predicted the U.S. would become a rogue nation because of its hegemonic power.

I laughed off both of those forecasts at the time. You’ll note, however, none of our government’s unilaterally killing drones use fuel cells as power sources.

In spite of the occasional spot-on prediction, many of the forecasts I’ve read or seen made as part of scenario planning have not come to pass. They remain years and decades away if they haven’t already become impossible or irrelevant. Why are future outcomes so notoriously nebulous?

During the dozen-plus years since I first worked with futurists and participated in scenario planning sessions, I’ve wised up and learned a few things, key to understanding the lameness of most futurists’ forecasts.

1) It’s really difficult for most organizations to see outside their own self-constructed silos built on the expertise of their products and services. They hire and promote subject-matter experts and look to them for forecasts. Because of internal feedback loops, organizations become blind to barriers so that their members really can’t see with specificity beyond 2-5 years. Asking folks in formal organizations to make forecasts about their own work, even with well-trained facilitators, is extremely difficult. Barriers within their own organizations may be invisible to them as well, ex. internal politics, or other activities deliberately hidden from view.

2) Organizations are often blind to their own social capital. If members within groups are uniformly unchallenged by barriers within and without their business lives, they may not see bumps in the road that thwart everybody else outside their group.

3) Outsiders who speculate on future activities of organizations while relying on publicly available information from within these groups may suffer from the same siloed and blinkered vision.

4) Predictions tend to follow the quantifiable, where the money as well as expectation exist—in science and technology. Unfortunately, scientists are loathe to make guarantees; they give percentages and odds, but not absolute assurances. Forecasts are only as good as the current understanding of science and technology, within some margin of error. Futurists often round up, encouraging excessive optimism.

These factors may explain why futurists’ predictions may ignore realities that grip nearly half of the humans on earth, while rendering so many of their forecasts inert.

Even factoring in the biases that shape forecasts, the future imagined can be far too tidy, . The gritty truths of the human condition and all its volatility are too neatly removed, parceled off outside the field of speculation. Continue reading

Emptywheel Twitterverse
bmaz @AZCardinals @ERIC_WATSON @RealPeterson21 @EAMaddenNFL Uhhh, why would you want that?? It is a curse!
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bmaz @walterwkatz Will be lot easier for defense if they can shift venue to a nice white suburb, which they are already trying to lay ground for
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bmaz @walterwkatz I think prosecution will be fine, tho may lose a few counts along the way. We'll see; too early now.
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bmaz @walterwkatz Quite true. I checked into background of the two prosecution team leaders, Janice Bledsoe+Michael Schatzow, and they are superb
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bmaz @walterwkatz @AP Had forcefully taken him down, subdued him on ground for while, handcuffed him, then sat him up and then checked his pocket
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bmaz @walterwkatz @AP The facts as stated by Mosby and, by my understanding witnesses and the cops.
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bmaz @walterwkatz @AP Not a new phenomenon, but yes, trust me I know..
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bmaz @walterwkatz @AP Oh i'm sure they are going to try, but it appears they have a problem with the facts in trying.
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bmaz @walterwkatz @AP Not sure how get around the apparent fact Gray had already been arrested before they were even aware of knife.
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bmaz @imraansiddiqi That's the comment of the week so far Imraan.
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bmaz RT @imraansiddiqi: Kids, if an instructor ever tells you "Oh, there are no stupid questions." Reply back: "Clearly you have never seen Don …
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bmaz @JoeRoganEXP @SusieMadrak Hahaha, you have to be kidding. The "Tesla Battery" is not even particularly new technology. Just packaging+spin.
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