emptywheel

2016 Presidential Election

It's Not the Campaign Finance Violation or the Simple Private Transaction, It's the Conspiracy to Commit Fraud

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December 10, 2018

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While folks on both sides of the aisle are grappling with the import of Friday's sentencing memo laying out Trump's involvement in Michael Cohen's campaign finance crimes, they're underplaying that SDNY is talking about conspiracy to commit fraud, not just campaign finance violations.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

Information in Amended DNC Lawsuit Reveals that Roger Stone Is at Significantly Greater Risk for CFAA Indictment

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December 9, 2018

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Back in November, I argued that Roger Stone's claims to be innocent of the GRU's hacks on DNC targets might not hold up given that GRU hacked the DNC analytics hosted on AWS in September. Information the DNC lawsuit against Trump, Stone, and others shows that at least some of that hack did post-date a Stone conversation about analytics.

Football, Trash Talk

Late Trash Is Better Than No Trash At All

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December 8, 2018

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It is a weekend well into December, so far that there is really no college football between now and the preternaturally expanded NCAA schedule of Bullshit Bowls That Don't Matter season and the end of the year and real BCS bowls. F1 is over…

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

The Benefits and Pitfalls of Having Former FEC Commissioner Don McGahn as Your Campaign Lawyer

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December 8, 2018

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SDNY's prosecutors noted something in yesterday's Cohen filing that will probably become increasingly problematic for Individual-1: because Trump and his fixer had a run-in with the FEC in 2013 -- from which they were saved by their future campaign lawyer Don McGahn -- they can't claim to be ignorant about campaign finance law.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

The Quid Pro Quo Was Even Tighter Than I Imagined

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December 8, 2018

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Back in May, it was pretty clear that Mueller was working towards showing that Trump had entered a quid pro quo with Russia. But Friday's filings make it clear that the quid pro quo -- all revolving around a Trump Tower deal -- was much tighter than had previously been known.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

The Manafort Election Season Lying Bonanza Stall

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December 7, 2018

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While it's unclear whether Mueller was also stalling, the details offered in Mueller's plea beach motion seem to suggest that Paul Manafort used his plea just to stall for time.

2016 Presidential Election, emptywheel, Mueller Probe

Cohen's Cooperation Seems to Focus on Obstruction

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December 7, 2018

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While a lot of what Cohen has cooperated on pertains to outreaches from Moscow, a good bit about it seems to relate to Trump's ongoing obstruction.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

Trump Boasts of His Imaginary 87-Page Rebuttal Without Noticing Mueller Has Already Released 127 Pages

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December 7, 2018

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Trump is furious that the press reported that he's increasingly unprepared to write the rebuttal attack that half his Russian investigation strategy depends on. He should be more furious that his advisors haven't pointed out that Mueller has already released 127 pages of his report.

2016 Presidential Election, emptywheel, Mueller Probe

Michael Cohen and Felix Sater's Evolving Cooperation against Trump

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December 7, 2018

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It's fairly clear that Michael Cohen and Felix Sater jointed crafted a limited hangout story, which they sustained at least until a year ago, to avoid telling the full truth about the Trump Tower deal. But it's not at all clear that they haven't simply retreated to a new limited hangout.

2016 Presidential Election, emptywheel, Mueller Probe

No, Mike Pence Is Not Going to Be Indicted

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December 5, 2018

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The addendum describing Mike Flynn's cooperation makes it clear that Flynn did lie to Mike Pence before the Vice President elect repeated those lies on Face the Nation. The redacted lines after that reference are probably a real problem for the President.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

Updating the Mueller Docket: What Has Zainab Ahmad Been Working On?

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December 5, 2018

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Given recent developments in the Mueller docket, we can account for what most of his prosecutors are doing. The one exception is Zainab Ahmad, whose only visible involvement so far has been in Mike Flynn's cooperation. Is she applying her extradition and Arabic expertise to head up an investigation into Trump's Middle Eastern graft?

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

Flynn's Category C (or B iii) Cooperation: Mueller's Expanded Investigation

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December 5, 2018

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Under an alternative theory of the structure of Mike Flynn's cooperation addendum, he may have cooperated on matters pertaining to Mueller's expanded investigation.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

The Mueller Investigation Is the Second Most Important Investigation into Which Flynn Assisted

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December 4, 2018

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The Flynn sentencing memo, with a largely redacted addendum describing his cooperation, is out. Effectively, Mueller recommends no prison time because of Flynn's substantial cooperation, his early cooperation, his record of service to the country. The…

2016 Presidential Election, emptywheel, Mueller Probe

Roger Stone and Jerome Corsi's Matryoshka Cover-Up

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December 4, 2018

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For over two years, Jerome Corsi and Roger Stone have been crafting a series of nested cover stories to hide the details of how they learned in August details of what WikiLeaks would release in October. It's fairly clear, this Matryoshka cover-up has become part of Mueller's investigation. It all suggests that whatever lies inside that last little doll is something so damning that the guy with the Nixon tattoo allowed the cover-up to become a second crime.

2016 Presidential Election, emptywheel, Mueller Probe, WikiLeaks

The Year Long Trump Flunky Effort to Free Julian Assange

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December 4, 2018

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From December 16, 2016 to at least January 6, 2018, there was a concerted effort among Trump's flunkies to find a way to repay Julian Assange's help for getting elected.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

The Illogical Core of "Chain Migration" Sponsor and Grifter Jerome Corsi's Complaint against Robert Mueller

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December 3, 2018

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Among the things Jerome Corsi alleges in his complaint is that he deduced that John Podesta's emails were coming in August 2016 from a document dump released on September 13, 2016.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

Why Have Roger Stone and Trump Hidden Their Ongoing Joint Defense "Collusion"?

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December 3, 2018

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Alone among Trump's 38 co-conspirators, Roger Stone is the one he won't admit to ongoing communications with. Given the rogue's gallery that he will overtly "collude" with on common defense, that he won't with Stone is truly telling.

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

If SSCI Was Referring All This Perjury to Mueller about GRU Funding Trump, Why Did Richard Burr Claim It Had Found No "Collusion"?

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December 2, 2018

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Twice during election season, Richard Burr claimed his committee hadn't found any hard evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. But we now know his committee referred at least two people to Mueller's office for lying about the funding to Trump from GRU-tied people.

2016 Presidential Election, emptywheel, Mueller Probe

The Manafort Lying Cards I'd Show if I Were Playing Presidential Pardon Poker

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December 1, 2018

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One detail from Paul Manafort's status hearing yesterday did not surprise me: Andrew Weissmann said he was "ready to go immediately with his filing of details on Manafort's alleged breach" of his plea agreement. (Judge Amy Berman Jackson gave…

2016 Presidential Election, Mueller Probe

The Trump Organization Is Not the Sitting President

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December 1, 2018

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All the analysis about whether you can indict a sitting President focuses on the President's natural person. This President also exists as a corporate person.