Happy Flying This Weekend – Who Needs All Those Meteorologists?
National Airspace System regional air traffic control hubs
From the GAO yesterday, via Government Executive:
National Weather Service meteorologists who assist air traffic controllers are working overtime, skipping leave and taking on more responsibilities due to worsening staff shortages, according to a Government Accountability Office report published Thursday, which criticized the Federal Aviation Administration for not doing enough in response to the problem.
“Not having identified and addressed the risks of the current staffing levels is concerning given the potential safety effects if aviation meteorologists are overworked and the quality of their services to air traffic controllers is diminished,” investigators wrote.
Well *that* doesn’t sound good. What exactly do they mean by “diminished”?
As of June, NWS said the aviation meteorologist workforce is down to 69 employees, partly as a result of the federal hiring freeze and separation incentive programs like deferred resignation. FAA and NWS in February agreed to a cap of 81 full-time equivalents for such positions. (In 2024, prior to the agreement, the report said that the FAA was pushing to lower that number to 71.)
Under a 2016 interagency agreement between FAA and NWS, there are supposed to be three meteorologists and one meteorologist in charge at each of the 21 air route traffic control centers across the U.S. But that is not achievable under the February agreement.
GAO reported that the control center in Oakland, Calif., is down to one meteorologist, another four centers have only two such employees and five centers don’t have a meteorologist in charge.
OK, you’ve got my attention now. I used to live in Oakland and then elsewhere in the East Bay, and this is nuts.
But let’s back up a minute, to make a few things clear. The FAA has facilities in every airport air traffic control tower. These folks handle takeoffs, landings, ground control on the taxiways, and other local issues. These are not the places this report is discussing. The FAA also has 21 regional air traffic control facilities that handle regional air traffic flow (see the map above). These are the facilities that worry the GAO.
Suppose you are flying from Denver to Oakland. When you take off, the Denver tower is in charge. Once you reach a certain altitude/distance from the airport, the pilot switches over to the Denver regional National Airspace System [NAS] hub for instructions and guidance. As you fly west, the Denver hub passes control to the Salt Lake City hub, and eventually to the Oakland regional hub. Finally, as you approach the Oakland airport, the pilot contacts the Oakland airport control tower for the final approach and landing.
Each of these regional NAS hubs, in the course of handling traffic issues, pays a lot of attention to the weather. Ever hit turbulence or storms? The meteorologists can predict where they are likely to appear, and (depending on severity) the NAS controllers then can either warn the pilots to expect minor turbulence in a particular area, or route the flights around that area if it is deemed severe.
So let’s go back to that Denver to Oakland flight.
The Rocky Mountains can create a *lot* of turbulence. Especially in the summer. Like during the Labor Day weekend. As you fly west, you come to other smaller but similar areas, like the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California and ultimately the hills and mountains that surround the San Francisco Bay. Complicating things, the SF Bay has three major commercial airports — SF, Oakland, and San Jose — as well as dozens of smaller municipal fields, private corporate airstrips, and military bases. In other words, there is a lot of air traffic in a relatively small area.
And according to the GAO, the Oakland regional air traffic control hub, instead of having four meteorologists, is down to just one.
One.
And it’s not like that one can clock out at 5pm and tell all the planes to tune in to “weather on the 8’s” on the radio or the 5:15 weather report on the KRON evening news to get updates they need.
I’ve had the pleasure of being the pastor to more than a few NWS meteorologists, and they have told me in detail about their love for their work. I’ve rejoiced with them when their severe weather warnings have saved lives, even when a tornado blows a town to bits. Over the last six months, I’ve also grieved with them as they have seen their agency stretched beyond the breaking point. Some of their friends have been let go as “redundant” or “wasteful”, others are fearing that they may be next to get the axe or be forced to relocate themselves and their families, and *everyone* is working far more than is healthy. We’re talking vacations cancelled, days off postponed, and suddenly having to work a double shift.
And it’s been like this for half a year, with no end in sight.
The NAS [National Airspace System] is currently under tremendous strain as air traffic controller shortages and periodic equipment failures in aging air traffic control systems have been leading to delayed and canceled flights. We and others have reported on these challenges, and we currently have ongoing work in these areas.11 Severe weather can exacerbate such strains on the NAS as FAA reports that weather is the leading cause of cancellations and delays.12 Multiple stressors on the NAS can lead to compounded adverse conditions for passengers. For example, the widespread delays and cancellations Southwest Airlines experienced in December 2022 began with weather problems that were compounded by carrier system failures.13
The purpose of this report is to inform you and Congress about another stressor on the NAS—concerns about aviation meteorologist staffing levels—which we identified in our ongoing work on aviation operational preparedness.14 These meteorologists work directly with air traffic controllers in the command center and en route centers, providing face-to-face briefings as necessary, and helping them safely direct flights to avoid severe weather. We recognize that determining the appropriate weather forecasting resources to effectively support the safe and efficient operation of the NAS may take time to examine in depth. However, given the urgency of the issues, and that the interagency agreement is scheduled to expire in September 2025, we are sharing this information with you now.
This report from the GAO is a flashing red light, a bone-chilling siren, trying to get the attention of people with the power to change things. I only hope it works.
Given that we’re talking about a government headed by a guy who thinks he is smarter than all the meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center and the NWS, and can predict the path of hurricanes simply by using his sharpie, I am not confident things will change at all.
Here’s hoping the worst the flying public has to deal with this weekend are baggage problems and seats with cramped leg room.
Thanks for posting this, Peterr. This is an issue that is not getting the attention it deserves. Stay safe everyone.
having spent an hour or so sitting in a plane on the apron, waiting for at least one t-storm to clear the flight path (Burbank to Vegas – not far!) – this maladministration may not want people to die, but they sure aren’t about to prevent that.
I would like to hope that one of those planes lands on the WH and takes out the sycophants and the incompetents doing this to us.
Except that might leave the country with President Peter Thiel.
He won’t get the support that The Felon Guy has.
Thanks Peterr and all that post here…. the lack of staff …due to boneheaded GOP shortsightedness, Yes? If I remember correctly victims of DOGE. How long until the insurance industry puts a stop to these unsafe , pregnant with disaster, flying conditions. Constantly learning about the details of what has been making the life we were living operate as smoothly as it has.
The airlines themselves may end up cancelling and/or delaying flights. If they do, they’ll really be stuck in the middle. Institutionally, they well know when the conditions, or lack of knowledge of those conditions, keep aircraft on the ground. And yet, they’ll be facing an outraged populace if they make those changes themselves because the FAA doesn’t want to embarrass Trump. Imagine what will happen if this situation continues to degrade going into Thanksgiving?
I guess a question is that whether or not the airline CEOs and the Trump Administration share a “teaching moment”.
Due to all the personnel leaving or being fired across the board that keep us safe while flying, I won’t be stepping on a plane anytime soon. The current maladministrations appointment of incompetent leadership that turns a blind eye to or creates unsustainable working conditions, outdated equipment shutting down frequently, and remaining burnt out support staff exposes the cascading events that lead to failures. The hard stop will not be pleasant for those aboard.
my additional hesitation to fly is due to Boeing’s rank incompetence leading to flawed airplane designs with years-long delays in getting new planes in production and in service. Airplane Companies had been forced to keep flying planes they intended to retire, don’t know the current status.
I haven’t flown anywhere since that trip to Vegas – in about 2002. And due to security theater, not going to.
This one is in my wheelhouse and I am glad to see it.
Accurate and *timely* weather information is critical for safety of flight and as noted here, those safety margins have been eroded by loss of trained and competent personnel at NWS.
At an airport, the runway in use – the direction of takeoffs and landings – is literally determined by which way the wind is blowing (aircraft take off and land with the nose pointing into the wind). Weather is particularly critical at lower altitudes, as the aircraft is taking off and climbing or approaching to land. Major weather-related accidents (Delta 191 at DFW, Pan Am 759 at MSY) are largely a thing of the past because of the high quality of our weather services.
En route turbulence – the phase of flight (cruise) controlled by the ARTCCCs (Air Route Traffic Control Centers, typically pronounced as “artsy”) is a significant threat that is expected to worsen with climate change. (Keep your seatbelt fastened throughout the flight … just as you would [should] in a car.)
Also, it’s not just the loss of aviation weather specialists that is a concern. It is the defunding and dismantling of federally funded climate science and generally any science that doesn’t align with this administration’s ideology … which seems to be ALL science of any kind. That is really going to bite us very hard, in ways that we can anticipate and in ways we won’t expect.
Low altitude makes this particularly critical, you say?
I think the runways at SFO and OAK are both about 10′ above sea level, with San Jose being at something like 50′ or 60′.
It’s proximity to the ground that matters, not so much airfield elevation. Takeoff and landing are the two most critical phases of a flight, where pilot workload is high and there is less time / altitude to recover from an adverse event.
Weather also affects controller workload. If there are thunderstorms in an area, they will be routing aircraft to avoid them. Another example is the shift in wind direction that may occur with the passage of a front. This is not unusual. In the DFW area (where I currently reside) prevailing winds are from the south, particularly in the warmer months. Cold fronts come from the north and when they come, the entire region switches which runways are in use as the wind direction shifts. This is coordinated at DFW International (by the TRACON, the Terminal Radar Approach Control facility, known as “D10”) and includes not just DFW Airport but also Dallas Love Field (DAL) and numerous smaller airports. It’s a remarkably complex event that is executed safely on a regular basis. And again, accurate and timely weather information is essential to maintaining safety of operations.
Temperature is a problem – lift is less in high temps, especially at higher ground altitudes.
You’ve obviously also sat on the tarmac at Denver, waiting for the heat waves to slow their ascent from the runway. Extends time between take-offs and landings, too.
I’d rather spend some extra time on the tarmac before takeoff instead of reimpacting it after takeoff.
no, but friend flew light-plane to Denver and back this time of year, and spent several hours at Grand Canyon waiting for it to cool off. (Didn’t get back to OC airport until close to midnight. It was a long wait, even though they called and told me.)
the news of the shortage of aviation meteorologists comes on the heels of my discovering our local airport had been going several days a month with no air traffic controller in the tower due to the shortage. pilots were responsible for communicating with one another, all the while navigating through our constant overcast and rain. after community outcry, the airport swears they are now fully staffed up.
for those with regional airports, i’d check to see if they are fully staffed at all times, or ask the local media to investigate the question. We The People have to keep the heat on.
p.s. AVTalk is a great podcast that comes out every Friday. The two guys recap the week’s news in aviation, and give really clear, understandable explanations about what is going on. I find it very helpful.
Who knew that the United States of America could become a craphole country in seven months under Trump? I did not think it could happen so quickly. After four years, sure. After seven months?!? . I did not realize how close to the edge of dysfunction our country was operating.
This didn’t start with Trump. This has been decades in the making.
Reagan and his team pushed for the unitary executive theory of government, but the Dems back then pushed back when they sought to put it into practice. Any time a SCOTUS decision didn’t go their way, the screaming about “activist judges” rose to the heavens.
Reagan killed the air traffic controllers union, PATCO, and tried to marginalize other unions of government workers.
Reagan tried to ignore black letter law to fund the Contras in Nicaragua with money earned by selling arms to Iran, and his aides lied to Congress to try to cover it up.
When it all came out during the end of the Reagan administration and beginning of the GHW Bush administration, Bill Barr was the AG that recommended that George HW Bush pardon the Iran-Contra criminals, so that Bush’s involvement in the scheme would not come out during trials.
Mitch McConnell, more than any GOP member of either house of Congress, alternately threw sand in the gears of any Democratic administration and gave away the powers of Congress to GOP presidents.
Generations of GOP firebreathers spent years undermining confidence in the US court system.
Generations of anti-science grifters spent years undermining confidence in the medical researchers, climate researchers, and agricultural researchers
Generations of religious wingnuts spent years convincing their followers that government is a tool of Satan, except when the GOP is in charge. At that point, government is the absolute tool of God.
Generations of Real He-Man idiots spent years telling us that guns are the answer to everything. Amp up the TSA at airports, security at sporting events, cops in schools, wanting to arm teachers, and put more guns in everyone’s homes. Got a problem? Violence is the answer – namely, beat the hell out of THEM before they beat the hell out of you.
Generations of folks afraid of sex have fought against equal rights for all people, regardless of sexuality. Be afraid of the gays, because they might want a wedding cake. Be afraid of the lesbians, because soon men will become unnecessary. Be afraid of the bi folks, because they are shiftless and untrustworthy and promiscuous. Be afraid of the trans folks, because they are coming for your kids.
Reagan put Rehnquist and Scalia on SCOTUS, followed by GHW Bush adding Thomas, and his son putting Alito and Roberts on the big bench. These folks laid the judicial groundwork for the judicial malpractice that SCOTUS has become known for in recent years. (Presidential immunity is not exactly what the founders fought for.)
Trump didn’t invent any of this, but he sure managed to harness it all and pour gasoline on the dumpster fire to aid his own mega grifting, and he is now dragging the country down as he does his thing. But it didn’t start with him, and blaming solely him lets a whole lot of other folks off the hook.
This is the single best synopsis of how we got here that I have read. There are a lot of people to hold accountable, but Reagan gets the lion’s share of my ire, because I had to live through the wreckage of his time as Governor of California, before he decided to take his disaster nationwide.
We live in Silicon Valley near a small regional airport which recently announced they are no longer going to have air traffic controllers. Lots of flyers use this strip for touch and goes when working on flying hours for their licenses. To me it is just a matter of time before there is a collision or they plow into the housing that surrounds this airport.
Thanks.
I kind of got on a roll, and you know what happens when a preacher gets on a roll . . .
In my head, after every paragraph break, I kept hearing these voices saying “Amen!” and “Preach!”
Emphatically agree with Molly! Thanks, Peterr!
And then there’s The Felon Guy refusing a grant to replace the control tower at Fresno airport because they won’t promise not to do DEI and all those other good things.
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/fresno-airport-control-tower-lawsuit-trump-21018704.php
A major purpose in CheneyBush’s establishment of DHS was to gut USG employee unions.
I’m not usually a fan of preaching, but you are an example of someone I will listen to, and absorb your words. (Awkward construction, as is that word ‘awdward’.)
[Moderator’s note: see your comment at 7:41 pm ET. /~Rayne]
Appreciate your reply Peterr and providing historical context and background.
All of it can be traced to a relatively small group of filthy rich thugs who have funded all the enablers in Peterr’s list. They hate government, hate democracy, and hate anyone who interferes with their economic power.
It’s been going on for our entire history. In the beginning it was mostly Southern plantation owners who wanted to impose their slave system on the entire nation, negotiated a Constitution that made that possible, and revolted when they were thwarted.
They were followed by generations of predatory capitalists from the industrialized states and the fossil fuel extractors. Both groups used government to achieve their ends. The use of the army and state militias to crush strikes is one of many examples.
The enemies of a.working democracy have been winning lately. They’ll keep winning until something major changes.
Thanks for these posts the last couple days, Peterr.
They are some good examples of the Trump cancer metastasizing throughout our government.
It is going to be fun when Sean Duffy tries to divide the number of lives lost by the number of dollars DOGE ‘saved’.
Not saying this is specifically related to the shortage of meteorologists, but . . .
As AirportCat said above, if you are on a plane, wear your damn seatbelt like you would in a car.
I’ve done that for years, and don’t move until the plane comes to a stop and the sign goes off.
(Some of the worst turbulence I’ve been in was flying out of LAX, as we crossed the coast over Orange County. Seat belt, yeah, and I was holding on with white knuckles.)
One main consideration, besides the obvious severe weather is the prevailing wind.
During take off and landing the preferred relation to the wind is to take off and land into the wind. Runways, when geography allows are oriented towards the prevailing wind. Sometimes, such as SFO there are choices, the runways there are in a cross pattern. Or Miami, Ohare, Oakland where there is a “V” pattern giving some flexibility depending on wind.
Sometimes there is potential interference, the wind pattern in SFO can lead to the landing or take off pattern shifting such that it interferes with OAK( Oakland) take off or landing (I forget the exact details), but OAK and SFO are less than 10 miles apart.
I am not a meteorologist, but I imagine the topography of the bay area, combined with the effects of water temperature and weather systems, can lead to a situation where having a meteorologist familiar with the locale, very important.
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Well done, Peterr! I teach and do research in aviation meteorology, and you explained this topic and situation excellently. For my students’ sakes, I wish there were more jobs in aviation meteorology. Many of the airlines used to employ meteorologists, but some of the biggest outsourced that work to private firms, or the airlines merged. AirportCat is correct that en route high-altitude clear-air turbulence is predicted to increase; the leading researcher on that topic is a friend and research collaborator of mine.
One final comment: as bad as this is for passengers, and as frustrating as it is to hear about passengers who get injured because they treat airplane seat belts the way we casually treated car seat belts in the 1960s, the *real* casualties are the flight attendants. They don’t have the luxury of being belted in at all times. The number of serious back and neck injuries, in particular, inflicted on flight attendants by surprise turbulence events is much more than is commonly appreciated. The airlines sure don’t want to talk about it. It’s a physically punishing job, on top of all the workaday rudeness, sexism/groping, and passengers going nuts and lunging for the emergency exits.
Airlines are better than they used to be about getting the flight attendants seated and belted in before anticipated turbulence, but if we have more events and the forecasts continue to be good-but-not-perfect, this is a problem that will only increase with time.