Your Summer Schedule: Vacation, Beach, Iran War
Man, if Leon Panetta doesn’t get into trouble for revealing details of Anwar al-Awlaki’s targeting or confirming that Pakistani doctor Shikal Afridi was working for the CIA when he collected DNA from Osama bin Laden’s compound, I wonder if he’ll get in trouble for (apparently) telling David Ignatius when Israel will attack Iran?
Panetta believes there is strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb.
Now perhaps this is another sanctioned leak meant to ruin Bibi Netanyahu’s surprise (though I’m not sure how Iran would prepare to defend against an Israeli attack).
If so, Ignatius’ article sure sends a divided message. On one hand, it suggests the US would not participate.
The administration appears to favor a policy of staying out of the conflict, unless Iran hits U.S. assets, which would trigger a strong U.S. response.
This U.S. policy — signaling that Israel is acting on its own — might open a breach like the one in 1956, when President Eisenhower condemned an Israeli-European attack on the Suez Canal.
Yet at the same time it lays out the circumstances under which the US would get involved.
Administration officials caution that Tehran shouldn’t misunderstand: The United States has a 60-year commitment to Israeli security, and if Israel’s population centers were hit, the United States could feel obligated to come to Israel’s defense.
I’m sure the Israelis would never be able to cock up a Scary Iran Plot targeted at Tel Aviv.
What Ignatius doesn’t emphasize–though he does hint at it–is the real reason for this schedule.
Complicating matters is the 2012 presidential campaign, which has Republicans candidates clamoring for stronger U.S. support of Israel.
Bibi’s biggest political donor, Sheldon Adelson, has already dumped $10 million into the GOP primary. To imagine that Bibi is not, at the same time, gaming out how the electoral schedule might play into the optimal time to pick a war with Iran is naive.
Which, I guess, may be why Panetta is blabbing this particular detail.
Damn, that is so messed up on so many levels…hey we would like to get a little war on here and we would like to fit it in around your schedules…so when would be a good time for us to bomb some Iranian cities and wreak some mayhem on the population centers in the mid east? Can you work in a June war? No, well how’s July look to you?
adelson provides big money to gingrich AND to netanyahu?
what a perfect example of the way a single, hyper-rich person can meddle in politics, set and control a political agenda, and cause grief for nations and their non-wealthy citizens.
“how about never? would never work for you”? :>)
@orionATL: Does a glass of porter after dinner sound good to you? Cheers!8*)
@orionATL: Yeah, he is VERY close with Bibi.
It matters not whether Israel starts a bloody war or the USACorp starts it. It is USACorp that wants unfettered access to the Iranian oil and they will try to get it through any means possible other than peacefully.
If USACorp thinks for one bloody minute that letting the Israelis drop the first bomb will insulate America from retaliation then they are, sadly, delusional. USACorp really has to get out of la la land and into the real world.
America has no longer any standing in the world when it comes to democracy, human rights, freedom of thought, freedom of movement…hell any freedoms at all. America is a bought and paid for corporate state, a fascist state, hated, reviled and derided by the rest of the world, it’s population controlled by propaganda and “homeland security” forces. It is a country that lives by the sword and will, with absoute certainty, die by the sword.
Scheduling wars for the most opportune time has a long and storied history. A relatively recent example in the region in question comes to mind:
First rule of invaders: catch the opposition while they’re praying/eating/sleeping/doing anything but keeping their eyes out for invaders.
port sounds better :>)
So has the US delivered yet on any of the stealth F-35’s we agreed to sell to Israel, so that the attack can be carried out without regard for air defenses in Iran? That was SUCH a “stability inducing” sale, sure hope it’s in position to pan out….
For those pilots desirous of a dark night, the following are the new moon phases in the next few months:
February 21, 2012
March 22, 2012
April 21, 2012
May 20, 2012
June 19, 2012
The CBS Evening News lead with this story tonight and added these little tidbits:
– David Ignatius posted this story only following the completion of a transatlantic flight with Leon Panetta.
– Leon Panetta has not backed off from this story even after Ignatius had it published.
I don’t know whether Panetta’s purpose was “meant to ruin Bibi Netanyahu’s surprise”, ratchet up the pressure on Iran, or provide a go “wink and nod” to Israel, but as a Scary Iran Plot, the emphasis is really getting scary on the Scary.
A bit of an update on Panetta’s thoughts via the NYT:
Israel has considered this? It sounds to me like Panetta has just explicitly confirmed the Ignatius story.
@MadDog: And even more from the AP:
I’m of the opinion that the AP’s headline doesn’t match the contents of their story. For example, there’s this part:
That sounds like a US “wink and nod” to Israel to do whatever it likes rather than some US attempt to convince Israel not to strike Iran.
Panetta, like Gen Dempsey a couple of weeks ago and with the cancelation of the mutual exercises a while back, is putting the Israelis on notice they are on their own.
There goes the lecture/message again. What Panetta is saying is that Isreal is going to have to make the first strike. The US can’t because it will ruin the small standing they have left with other countries and cause Russia and China to have serious heartburn. Everyone knows the US will be right in the midst of the smoke with Isreal. As far as to when, well, he is saying it is not a good time for Isreal to do that. Otherwise, his lips would have been sealed tight.
@MadDog: And from the Telegraph, there’s this:
This would be the same Pardo I noted yesterday that met with both Senator Diane Feinstein and CIA Director Petraeus:
I don’t think he’s revealing military plans, I think he’s telegraphing Obama’s campaign strategy to make war his summer issue, just in time to wrap everything up for the fall.
@GulfCoastPirate: The Israelis canceled that exercise, not us.
Has anyone done the research and background on Adelson? Where does he get his money and power from? He appears dangerous to society, especially backing Newt who is America’s version of King Jong Il.
@MadDog: Yeah, I noted it when live tweeting the hearing. It was interpreted as a mistake on DiFi’s part.
Say what you will abt DiFi, but she’s VERY careful (and deliberate) about what she says in hearings.
@MadDog: And from MSNBC, there’s this:
@emptywheel: Speaking of your tweeting, any plans to bring back the EW tweets as a realtime updated section here like it was back at the Lake? I really miss it.
@MadDog: I’m thinking March or April. I’m probably wrong, but earlier would make more sense in the area due to the climate.
@MadDog: That MSNBC link had more excellent Q&A and the entire thing is worth the read.
@PeasantParty: I would note that the later the month, the higher the probability of an Israeli attack on Iran.
Sort of on topic, via the AP – In case you missed it, we are also at war in the Philippines:
@emptywheel: So they said. When was the last time they said anything anyone could believe?
The only thing that could cost Obama this election given the mediocrity of the Republican field is getting into another war. I may be wrong but I think they’re signaling to the Israelis not to count on our support. It will send all the Israeli-firsters into spasms but I think Obama knows full well how Bibi is playing this and I don’t think he is going to play along.
@PeasantParty: Yea, he gets it from his casinos. I hear you have a better chance of winning in them than on Wall Street.
I know you follow SST some and the colonel has had a few posts on the topic. Here is the latest.
As the colonel indicates the most virulent of the Israeli firsters are never going to vote for Obama nor are the southern evangelicals. WE had an article today on the Wall Streeters bailing on Obama after everything he’s done for them in favor of Romney. Now, we can all say whatever we want and think what we think about Obama but a poor black guy doesn’t get elected president of the US without being able to count votes and his votes aren’t with those who want an attack on Iran. Particularly given that Iran has doen nothing wrong. Going against the Israelis is the correct strategy given the economy and who wants him to go in the opposite direction.
@GulfCoastPirate: I agree with everything you say, but I still trust the sources that say the Israelis canceled it. They may have canceled it bc the Admin said they wouldn’t fight Israel’s war, though.
@emptywheel: Methinks this is due in no small part, to the lessened influence of Graham/McCain/HoJo in foreign matters. And just speculating that this is largely due to Hillary being SecState …
@emptywheel: Yea, I think that’s part of it. If we told them we weren’t going to back them up and they used up a lot of ordinance in an exercise they may have figured why have the exercise.
I know you’re a sports lady. For all of his faults Obama does have a sporting streak and he’s a cocky booger. You have to think his treatment from Bibi is irritiating his ass and it must kill him to hold his tongue. We did have the one incident a couple years ago when he left Bibi waiting and from reports acted fairly rude to him. In your opinion what’s the chances he gets a second term, doesn’t have to worry about reelection again, and decides he’s going to come down on Bibi’s ass like the Israelis have never seen before? Frak, the Iranians aren’t doing anything any sane person who lived near the Israelis wouldn’t also be doing – getting ready just in case. They aren’t doing anything the NNPT doesn’t allow them to do and the US intelligence community knows it. There seems to be an increasing number of people who are tired of the Israelis crap. I’m not so sure he wouldn’t have a lot of people backing him if he decided to let them go it alone.
I’d like to hear y’alls take, it seems to me that Israel’s support in the US is an inch wide and a mile deep, composed of zealots, dingbats and the ladder-climbers clambering to stay in office, which unfortunately happens to be all of congress, with the rare exception.. Most, perhaps as many as 80% of us don’t support Israel’s nonsense and won’t support another war in Asia.
Bibi, Lieberman and Barak can’t stand the prospect of Iran and the US reaching some kind of deal, thus leaving them something less than the “special” and “ironclad” relationship. I think they are more afraid of losing this privileged status and the room for maneuver it provides than some fantasy of crazy Persians with a bomb. BTW I think Israel is all bluff and bluster, and buffoonery when faced with a real adversary, which Iran is. Israel will not hit Iran. Book it. The US Navy has a long memory.
where is the strong leadership on the american side.
not the leadership that says, “we won’t fight your war,”
but the leadership that says “if you do something this unwarranted and foolish, we will see that you suffer severe consequences.”
other than panetta’s comments, which are quite remarkable for a cabinet member,
there is no sense/message from the obama aministration of what one would call, at the family level, a parent in charge of those little israeli brats.