FedEx

Santa’s Elves Just Got Fired

Remember the “good” jobs report last week? As Dean Baker explained, many of the new jobs were actually the “couriers” who delivered your holiday presents.

The sharp drop in the unemployment rate over the last four months (from 9.1 percent to 8.5 percent) is not consistent with the job growth reported in the establishment survey. The survey reported 200,000 jobs in December; however, this figure is skewed by the 42,200 job gain reported for couriers. There was a similar gain in this category reported for last December, which was completely reversed the next month. Clearly this is a problem of seasonal adjustment, not an issue of real job growth. Pulling out these jobs, the economy created 158,000 jobs in December, in line with expectations.

Pulling out the courier jobs, growth has averaged 145,000 per month over the last four months. This is somewhat better than the 90,000-100,000 a month needed to keep pace with the growth of the labor force, but certainly not rapid enough to explain a 0.6 percentage point drop in unemployment. At this pace, we would not get back to pre-recession levels of unemployment until 2027. [my emphasis]

Now Baker’s predicted reversal in those jobs has started to appear, with initial jobless claims up 24,000 this week.

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, raising the possibility that a greater-than-usual increase in temporary holiday hiring boosted December payrolls.

Jobless claims climbed by 24,000 to 399,000 in the week ended Jan. 7, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 46 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected 375,000. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those receiving extended payments decreased.

Hiring by package delivery companies and retailers during the holidays to meet demand for gifts may now be giving way to an increase in dismissals.

These words–”couriers” and “package delivery companies”–are very cold. What we’re really talking about are Santa’s Elves, the wondrous people who make your holidays magical, particularly given how they help you avoid crowded malls by allowing you to shop online. In all the cartoon Christmas specials, those elves spend the off-season making more toys for the next Christmas. Not so our “modern” economy. Now, we benefit from their services, enjoy our holidays, and then <<BAM!!>> the Elves are on the street again, looking for work.

Merry Christmas!

Emptywheel Twitterverse
bmaz Good for the UofA Wildcats. Nice win to open the season. Of course that will NOT be happening at end of November the Sun Devils come to town
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bmaz @ThePietzLawFirm @steveglista @GregoryMcNeal @NYDailyNews If you have evidence Laird did not shoot the pier, please post it.
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bmaz @ThePietzLawFirm @steveglista @GregoryMcNeal @NYDailyNews Several other news orbs I saw did the same; I picked that only because of video.
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emptywheel @steveglista I do. Mr EW wants to go too. What time will you be up? @grmakerfaire
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emptywheel RT @ddayen: My story on CA unions killing campaign finance disclosure, from @Salon this week: http://t.co/HQ38zZLvVm
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JimWhiteGNV Roll Tide! RT @NaphiSoc: and the NRA Parents of the Year AWARD goes to..... #UniteBlue http://t.co/01vqJUsEZd
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emptywheel @chinahand Why didn't Argentina think of that? Oh wait. Only likely invader was the UK.
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emptywheel RT @chinahand: Seems Kyiv cannily assuming levels of indebtedness that wl compel West 2 support it unconditionally as its financial ward.
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emptywheel RT @barryeisler: Is there one for the US? RT @BrilliantMaps: The 22 countries the UK has not invaded http://t.co/7eCxQ2ZfSA
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emptywheel @Mario_Greenly My point is simple. A commander who claims not to have checked seized devices in 8 mos is lying. Very simple @dr_davidson
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emptywheel @Mario_Greenly Calling the laptop obviously dubious. Not doubting @HaraldDoornbos @jenanmoussa reported what they were told. @dr_davidson
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emptywheel @dr_davidson Times like this you look for the way to monetize such predictions. http://t.co/ukhGIUZESv
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