The New Poll Porn: Automotive Sales Aren’t What You Think They Are
Perhaps it’s a residual appreciation left over from this election’s polling data (which by and large had much better news to offer), but I have been absolutely entranced with these data from November’s car sales. Frankly, it would be a mistake for anyone to take any general lessons from the data–they speak to the volatility of the market, distorted both by huge swings in gas prices and supply issues, not to any trends. But that, in itself, is a worthy lesson.
For example, let’s look at a list of which manufacturers did better than the industry wide average decline fo 36.7% and which did worse:
-47.1% Chrysler
-42.2% Nissan
-41.3% GM
-39.7% Hyundai
-37.2% Kia
-36.7% Industry Average
-33.9% Toyota
-31.6% Honda
-30.5% Ford
-26.7% BMW
-21.5% Volkswagen
A couple of points. GM revealed that buyers are shying away from GM (and therefore, presumably, Chrysler) because they’re worried about buying a car from a manufacturer in bankruptcy. Yet Nissan actually lost more sales compared to last year than GM. And Richard Shelby would have you believe that only those manufacturers heavy with UAW contracts are doing poorly!
And did you notice that Ford–one of the three manufacturers getting grilled by Richard Shelby today–did better last month than the manufacturers in his state: Hyundai, Toyota, and Honda (though Mercedes did great; they were off just 8.6%)? Shelby would have you believe the US manufacturers are doing worse in this crisis than the transplants–but he’d be lying.
And notice who is doing best, compared to last year? Volkswagen and BMW. Not, mind you, because of their vehicle lines. But presumably because of favorable exchange rates.
And how about individual models?
Notice the model that is doing worst as compared to its sales last year?
The Toyota Prius.
Let me repeat that: the Toyota Prius is doing worst among the 16 best selling vehicles as compared to its sales last November. There are probably very good reasons for it: that Toyota sold so many Priuses in the summer, when gas prices were at record highs, that it’s trying to catch up on production numbers; that it might be a harder car to finance than others; that there are increasing numbers of efficient cars on the market. The point is, in this market, where supply and demand swings wildly from month to month, there are not easy equations about what will sell well.
And note that Ford F-Series and Chevy Silverado lead the list.
Still.
Mind you, truck sales are still down more than cars on the year, but trucks–American trucks–are still the most popular cars in America, and sales are off less than average from last year (though this likely reflects the greater discounting for trucks, plus the new F150 model).
And look at mid-size sedans.
+35.4 Chevy Malibu
-27.4 Ford Fusion
-28.8 Toyota Camry
-36.7 Industry Average
-38.1 Honda Accord
-43.7 Chevy Impala
-45.3 Nissan Altima
First of all, we can see why Nissan contracted worse than GM last month: its best selling model, the Nissan Altima, tanked. That might be because of credit issues. It might be because the Chevy Malibu ate up market share, rather dramatically, partly because Malibu was picked as the car of the year (over the Accord). But whatever the reason, Malibu’s success and Nissan’s contraction (though Altima still sold more units than Malibu) suggests that the adage, "people don’t want to buy American cars" may not be true any more (Ford’s Fusion, too, declined less than Camry and Accord, though sold fewer units).
Some things about this picture remain true: Ford and Chevy do better with trucks. Toyota and Honda do better with cars. New models (F150 and Malibu) still grab buyers’ attention.
But this is a tremendously volatile time in the auto market. And if some schmucky Senator from Alabama or Tennesee tells you certain things about the failing business model of American car companies, you’d do well to question those things, because no one knows what is happening with this market.
The Prius’ sales are down because they didn’t make enough and ran out early in the year; there’s a nine-month wait to get a new one — and why Toyota is trying to get a new plant, solely dedicated to Priuses, up and running in the Southern part of the US in the next two years. If the Chevy Volt can hit the showroom floors before then, it will cut into a huge chunk of those sales.
Yup, that’s what I mean by supply issues–plus, since Toyota isn’t trying to move them, they’ve got no reason to give someone credit for one–why not take cash?
PW
160 new Prius sitting on one car dealer’s lot.
Right now, at the dealership close to Google corp HQ in Bayarea, (economy’s doing okay) there are 160 Toyota Prius for sale, according to dealer’s inventory. Of 160, 2 are 2008 models.
Prius is extremely popular in NorCal.
I think people are waiting for the next generation Prius.
i wonder if there is any significant impact on any of this by fleet sales/purchases for end of the year for end of the year change out or tax purposes or whatever. I especially wonder if this has any effect as to the Ford trucks the Malibu and Altima. Altima is a huge rental car staple; or at least was. I wonder if Altima is losing a bunch of rental volume to Malibu and some of that is a one for one loss/gain?
Overall I wonder if people are not substituting used cars for new cars in general or just putting off purchasing a new car? If we are really in this giant recession that is dominating our discourse it is really a wise move to go out and buy a new car? (Particularly from a carmaker going bankrupt?)
I wonder what the used car market is like these days?
Unfortunately all this recession, sky is falling talk is self-reinforcing. The more we talk about it the more it will be true because the more people will cut back etc.
Car Companies(GM, Chrysler) have stopped leasing precisely because they can no longer say with certainty what the end value of their cars will be. With the enormous glut, cars are literally being given away. Lots of Canucks are heading South to purchase 1-2 year old cars at half or less the sticker price …
Not entirely. They would still lease cars–if they could get financing for them–if only to keep the volume up.
But they can’t.
It’s posts like this that make me glad Obama is taking a low profile during the auto and finance bailout debates in Congress. People like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd don’t seem to get that Obama is trying to build credibility with the American people for doing positive things, not for coming in as a fireman and putting out a fire Congress started with their own hearings. Shorter Dodd and Frank, ‘Why doesn’t Obama get in front so I can get behind him and look good?’. They should choose ‘get out of the way’ of the three action options, not blame Obama for not leading as President when he is only President-elect.
Congress gets into this ‘we have to do something!’ mode that is very dangerous because it’s not conditional on the ’something’ being effective.
Congress needs only to keep the other $350 billion of TARP out of Henry Paulson’s greasy fingers and tell the Big Three that bridge loans will be there under President-elect Obama (to quiet bankruptcy talk). Then then need to go home until the inauguration.
I’m sure Barney was taken out of context … can’t imaging he’d be trying to pass the buck for his own actions in this clusterfuck … /s
I like Dodd and love Frank but it seems like they are inviting Obama to their checker game when he’s playing chess against Bush/Paulson with $350 billion in TARP funds and $25 billion in energy retooling funds as the stakes. Obama might not be playing THEIR game but that doesn’t mean he’s not in THE game. He’s sure as hell in the game.
I believe that A) Obama wants all that money to be under his guidance as President and B) the vast majority of Americans would prefer Obama to have the largest say in how that money is spent, not Bush and the 110th Congress. So it’s pretty clear that the smart move for Obama allies in Congress is to quiet talk of panic while running out the clock on our 43rd President. That’s not what I’m hearing from Dodd and Frank.
No, GM cannot wait until January 20 to know that there will be a bridge loan. They technically have the cash to get there, but you cannot run your available cash down to zero like that without knowing you have backup; otherwise there is no ability whatsoever even to thereafter operate as a debtor in possession. The decision point for GM will be the end of this month.
Ummm. Obama twisted arms for Paulson’s bailout, and he won’t get out in front on this and save 3 million jobs because it might look bad?
Forgive me, but frankly, if that’s his concern, he’s a fool and doesn’t care about ordinary people. If he starts off in office with the Big 3 going under he will be a one term president.
Guaranteed. Because it will cause a Depression.
Bank on it (but not with Citi).
Thank you. Well stated.
It’s not about looking bad. It’s about making a bad deal. Dodd and Frank running around like the world in going to end in 30 days helps increase the odds of the world ending in 30 days. They are shitty poker players.
Bush already offered a deal to use DoE retooling money for the auto industry so the fallback position is bailout at the expense of some infrastructure investment, not “russian roulette” as Dodd so calmly put it. Who is he trying to scare? Senate Republicans or GM car buyers? FAILURE is not happening unless it’s the choice of the current Democratic Congress. So why all the panicky talk from Dodd and Frank? It’s weak on their part. Who the hell is Obama supposed to whip on this anyway? His fellow Dems don’t know that they need to protect millions of jobs? Reid and Dodd are mewling about the votes not being there — well figure out a damn way to get to January when you add 7 more votes like magic.
And I don’t remember Obama’s support being key to TARP passing 74-25 in th Senate. The sticking point was House Republicans, not anything that happened in the Senate. I do remember Obama talking about Main Street and oversight which he continues to do now, which is a polite way of Obama saying the Paulson bailout is a clusterf@ck and don’t give him another $350 billion. Should Obama kick and scream too? Why? To add even more drama to the markets? I can’t believe that Obama keeping his eye on the ball during the general election (getting elected) now somehow means he’s Paulson’s stooge. It’s mind boggling to me.
Isn’t there anybody in Congress worth a damn who can do their job without Obama pinning their mittens to their sleeve and packing a lunch for them? Dodd and Frank have been in Congress for 60 years between them. What is the point of all that experience if they still need to be told what to do?
Save GM with the least $$ possible and kick the can until January 20, 2009. It’s not that hard.
I disagree. I think Obama making a case for the Big 3 would go a long ways to offset the rampant BS propagated by the MSM. Many folks lean anti-union to start with and now having a Wurlitzer of propaganda virtually unchecked only compounds getting the truth out. We need Obama NOW! I want to trust his judgement but not sure that I do on this.
“Detroit” the next Katrina!
And for pusshead preening idiots on Capitol Hill that yammer about how well the perfect and great holy grail Honda Motor Company is doing, suck on this:
wow bmaz that’s big, it will definitely have negative effect 0n F1.
jeebus, that is huge news
You would think that the other car companies would be pulling out of racing to save money.
Heh, I don’t expect Ferrari, MercedesMcLaren, BMW etc. to be withdrawing anytime soon. There were already plans to standardize engine configurations in F1 and other cost saving measure being implemented. But Honda pulling out is a real shocker, F1 is quite arguable the single biggest sporting league in the world; for Honda to not participate is a huge blow to their status.
I’ll take savings over status if I were a shareholder.
Bernie Ecclestone will then have more time to do Nazi fantasies with his favorite hookers. Always a silver lining, etc.
Actually, I’m quite happy that Ecclestone dumped Montreal for Dubai. Less air and noise pollution for the rest of us.
Saw Amory Lovins at Harvard yesterday and Shai Agassi of Better Place at MIT today. Both of them were talking about efficient vehicles and new business models that I have heard and read nary a word of in the corporate media. Better Place has a whole new business model which will introduce efficient electrical cars quickly and contracts with Israel, Denmark, Hawaii, and the SF Bay Area to do just that. Mass production by Renault and Nissan by 2011. Amory has been working on his Hypercar concept for over a decade and now Toyota is about to start building carbon fiber light-weight bodies. Michelin is about to begin producing electric wheels.
There are a multitude of new and interesting ideas about cars and transportation out there that nobody in the corporate media seems to want to talk about at all and certainly not within the context of the auto bailout. This is crazy.
My notes on Shai Agassi’s presentation at MIT at http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/12/4/204724/805
Carbon fiber on which model? Electric wheels?
thanks e.w. .. that’s a very nice analysis … the sales drops are .. well whoa .. but the rankings ..as you point out aren’t what one would think ..
i guess people who are getting laid off .. seeing their 401k’s evaporate and watching their house’s value drop through the basement.. figure they can hold on to the vehicle[s] they’ve got a couple more years .. or hope they can keep up the payments so they’ll at least have someplace to live when the repo boyz come for the house .. the “new” car can wait ..
i’ve been seeing a big increase in the number of the little-bug-eyed “smart” cars crawling around everywhere.. they’re made by mercedes btw ..which may be what’s bolstering mercedes numbers rather than the luxury class .. and volks has the TDI which IIRC is the super-hwy-mileage leader sportin’ a small turbo injected diesel ..
Thanks ew.
digg
emptywheel,
you mention that caution should be taken with the numbers. That is wise.
The real point and probably the only point worth considering is that the Detroit 3 are talking about bankruptcy, and the UAW is now willing to kill the Jobs Bank along with further concessions. GM says they will fold within month without help! None of the other manufacturers that you have in your list are doing that, at least as far as I have heard.
Now sure any and all will try to belly up to the trough in their own countries, or anywhere else if they can. If someone starts ”bailing out” 401s, I will be one of the first ones up at the counter, but I am not close to going bankrupt.
I have heard time and time again about this GM VOLT, and actually watched the manager of that project on the Charlie Rose show. He talked about taking the old EV1 technology and making the battery smaller, indeed with a new battery technology not the ones I list below.
But the thing gets only a 40 mile range! In my humble opinion, I think that is too little.
The old GM EV-1 (see Wikipedia) did much better:
gen 1 (Delco lead acid batteries) got 55 to 75 mile range
gen 2 (Panasonic lead acid batteries) got 75 to 100 mile range
gen 2 (Ovonic nickel-metal hydride batteries. got 75 to 150 miles range
bmaz seems to think the EV1 was a failure, but according to Wikipedia, the current people at GM including the CEO think that they lost a golden opportunity by closing down the program.
I did find the reason they were so strong about cutting the program after the initial 3 year lease as a test car and why they destroyed the cars. California law would have required that they support any remaining cars on the road for at least 15 years, and they didn’t want to do that.
A few Universities that had the cars for study and history, did put them on the road later, and GM came after them very strongly.
Now back to the hearings this week:
I thought the Democrats, in general at least, would have been more receptive to the Detroit 3’s pleas, though maybe they are just posturing a bit, and their attitude will soften later as those calls and emails come in.
Unfortunately (for I am now positive about a bailout for 1 or even 2 years) I understand they are saying it will require arm twisting by both Bush and Obama to get deal.
I hope that occurs.
The most overlooked and crucial point yesterday was made by the President of Johnson Controls. He basically explained, you let these manufacturers tank, then the hybrid industry you, Congress, hoped to build stronger to create more jobs and competition in export product, is dead because our hybrid battery division will be toast.
I wonder where NYT’s got #s cited.
For example, your linked chart has Nov. Accord sales, ‘08 vs. ‘07, down 38%. I wonder what they say about Aug-Oct?
Anyway, TruthAboutCars stats shows Accord sales well up this year through Aug. Their more general reference article is here. Honda overall YTD sales up slightly in ‘08 through August as well.
From what I gather, 11/’08 sales not good barometer. US/EURO economies both began contraction in Sept. And not just US but global sales plunged much more because of accelerating economic conditions than relative merits/consumer preferences. Nov. snapshot:
– 30 yr. low in Britain, down 36% YTY
– Brazil production down 34%+ YTY
– German new-car registrations down 18% YTY
– French new car regs down 14%
– 50/30% reg drop in Spain/Italy
– Japanese Oct. drop in sales largest on record
And BMW, contrary to what I heard in hearings yesterday (”small cottage manufacturer” or some such nonsense), had 3rd quarter NET drop whopping 63%.
I don’t say this to be argumentative or anything… just from what I gather those #s don’t give accurate picture of things. Stats I cite are really anecdotal, but….
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Talk in hearings of establishing Federal Industrial Policy sure sounds like good idea to me. But just like everything else in this econ meltdown, lawmakers way behind curve… everything’s in rear view mirror. Like running from a tornado.
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Among cars in our small family fleet is a ‘99 Olds LSS… hi end interior w/every little gadget… a FWD big-bertha. Only 57k orig miles, car’s almost like new. We have it only to sherpa our in laws around for various outings. By today’s standards, it’s a land boat. Still, mileage not all that bad: +/- 20mpg around town, +/-24 on highway. For what it tries to be (big, cushy, comfy) it’s been a good car.
The LSS had some minor problem, took it into our excellent local INDY repair shop of choice (they maintain our ‘95 Celica as well): 12 bays, all the latest equipment, ongoing mechanic apprenticeships always and 7 guys who’ve wrenched there for 15 or more years. Called SACCO Automotive, owner is Steve. Great guy, always honest and excellent work, beyond reproach. Their labor rate about 1/2 that of local GM dealers, parts markup 1/5 of dealer’s, and they do better work.
I haven’t talked to Steve in 4-5 mos. Having only anecdotal info on much of stats/statements/contentions Marcy’s put up in last couple weeks re: GM quality and such, I’ve kind’a stayed out of discussion. As opportunity permits though, I am asking questions of people in the know however, trying to get better handle on things overall, especially assessment of GM quality and all overall.
Anyway, taking the land-boat in I jawboned w/Steve for a while… I went in expecting to hear him say his biz was up in recent months w/more people fixing older cars and such. To my surprise, he said just the opposite: biz down around 1/3 over last year. He cited reasons as…
a) People traded in gas hogs in big way while fuel +$3 per, buying hi-mileage compacts and sub-compacts. Overall stats for ‘08, from what I gather, bare that out.
b) Those cars (obviously) are new, not much maintenance. But manufacturers withholding system computer codes, and he can’t do most critical work on them.
He’s been there over 30 yrs. Says if trend continues, he’s either going to have to shut down or downscale # service bays & mechanics.
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I remain ambivalent about this whole GM thing… sorry troops. I understand fully # of people employed directly/indirectly and all that. But as I said a couple times in other threads last week, bad econ news accelerating… even since I last commented about 10 days ago.
I don’t understand how/why you’all (or anyone else) thinks rest of dwindling US econ participants are going to be able to buy these things. And that view is backed up by these Oct/Nov sales AFAI can see.
Aside from announcements of less than inspiring BO Admin announcements across the board, BO’s camp has been near silent on econ particulars… deafeningly so AFAIC. We have general announcements of projected job creation w/more or less text book Keynesian policies, but not a whole lot of imagination matching current knowledge/human/development resources to vast unmet needs.
Tech… IBM, M$, Oracle and the rest have told Pelosi et’al they need huge increase in H1B’s, and both Pelosi/Reid signalled they’re on board to deliver. What’s up w/that?
Rumours suggesting BO considering Monsanto lobbyist/Big Farma reps for Dept of Ag… sigh.
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In my view, if context of everything that is US economy is not taken into consideration in mission critical fashion… with a whole lot of fundamental “change” thought into things in a big way, I personally don’t see how this GM deal’s gon’a make much difference in the long run.
I’d say fine… throw GM their 25… errr, $34b: drop in the bucket these days. Just do it… get it over with. Fast!!! Then get on w/the more meaningful big picture, and get every progressive community off their post-election euphoria ass and start exerting principled pressure for policies based on need/possibility/full resource utilization in transformational fashion.
We aren’t even in the ballpark yet.
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Repubs, going back to Reagan, have gotten elected on issues of smaller/more efficient government, “free market” blah blah blah, cutting costs to improve productivity and all the rest. This stuff resonates w/majorities of US voting public… obviously. It resonates w/me.
That window of this election result is brief opportunity to expose fact these guy’s actions have entirely contradictory to these “principles”… in fact, they’ve all been crooks & nothing more. The consequences of their crime spree is reason why BO won.
Unfortunately, the greater voting public knows things have gone bad, but don’t know particulars. Given scope of econ woes, I am amazed on daily basis the poop I read everything, entirely non-illuminating, on specific point-in-time causes leading to our “predicament”. And just as in the past, US public’s ignorance of these matters is the vacum which makes them subject to same kind of cheap-mantra manipulation employed to get us into Iraq and the rest of W’s crime spree. It’s the same crap that’s gotten all the corrupt R’s elected in recent cycles.
If BO doesn’t get bigger and better policies that both expose why we’re here and provide real, visionary alternative everything, we’re going to be right back in the same old soup in no time: “big spending liberls” vs. “conservative free market” republicans. And it will sell again, ’cause most folks don’t know how we got here. And their incomes are disappearing… fast.
I fear progressives are missing the forest for the trees here, and whole damn country’s gon’a pay in huge, increasingly poverty oriented ways if we don’t get off the pot damn fast.
Every time we get sucked into these petty, situational fights which the likes of Shelby & co. (union busting) ignorantly proffer, discussion degrades into he said/she said squabbles w/larger principles forgotten… at best, they result in only holding our own or small incremental gains w/no systemic changes.
I say promote huge, big ideas… massive systemic change. Create ways to get everybody involved building, planning, envisioning a future. Do it right, and create a wave that washes over the Shelby small-minded crowd that only cares about US top .5%… don’t fight ‘em, drown ‘em w/good ideas.
And put a squeeze on BO demanding these ideas/plans in such a big way that his old-idea-box gets crushed & squeezed empty whether he likes it or not.
Corker and a few others put forth idea yesterday that this GM thing is a crisis, which it is. The old notion that a crisis focuses the attention and promotes action in ways that do not happen when things are comfortable… well, that much is true AFAIC.
That kind’a attention needs to expand to whole big picture here… and fast. That all we’re talking about is GM means only nobody’s turned light on larger crisis yet. But it’s there allright…
The way things are going now, I’ve just got this eerie feeling window of opportunity is beginning to slap shut, nobody’s kicking the thing to keep it open much less walk through it. It’s a bit depressing.
Source is motorintelligence.com. Though most of the data is locked up for suscribers.
I absolutely agree–both November data and August data are worthless, for telling you about overall health of the companies. But that is, actually, the point. These companies have ALL undergone twin shocks, shocks that neither GM nor Nissan are faring very well, and that’s because no one (not Honda nor Toyota) can get their planning right when gas prices and credit markets go crazy.
GM is in terrible shape in terms of debt (as is Ford), but the proximate cause here is NOT the actual popularity of their cars, it’s the twin shocks.
The globalist banksters removed the gold standard from all fiat currencies, backing the dollar instead with oil.
The PetroDollar has two components – the apparent value of paper relative to the proclaimed value of oil on a given day.
This explains why, in the minds of the globalists, banking and oil production are one in the same.
Rockefeller controls JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, and of course his media empire – and owns the lion’s share of Exxon-Mobil.
The Crown controls Barclays and the Bank Of England – and owns BP as well.
Banking and oil are in the exact same business. When we bailed out the banking side of the House of Windsor and the House of Rockefeller, the oil side laughed out loud, in light of their recent record profits and lucrative short bets, made with the full knowledge that their own actions would cause the crash that has resulted.
If you want to boost your dollar (as they have), you crash your oil. Want to reverse both…no problem.
Is this shit easy, or what?
Well, I think it’s both… but given severity of “twin shocks” affects on things, quibbling is more or less academic exercise.
Which AFAIC further elucidates deafening silence I mention.
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Phred @ 33:
In my view, that’s 100% self evident… fully agree.
Again, fully agree.
Actually, we’re about there right now and everyone, including congress, seems to be pretending otherwise. Everything in rear view mirror, w/nothing I see getting ahead of things in any focused, intelligent way.
As best I can tell, TARP has succeeded in little more than replenishing WS’s rainy day bank accounts… odd to see perpetrators of the crimes being retooled @ public expense for near -0- value. And all I hear from congress (not to mention Treasury/FED) is “oops, ahhh well… didn’t work so well… shucks gee wiz, we’ll do better next time… blah blah blah.”
And that is the most smack-you-in-the-face reality of all this, obscured by focus on situational situations all discussed in decades old terms & ideas. Especially the health care… we all talk about merits of single payer this, subsidized that… I read it all the time in local paper’s OpEd’s (we have large training/research hospital @ host University, and they all have opinions…), WSJ, etc… yet practically nothing about tearing it all apart, looking at the pieces, and putting it back together in a way that functions effeciently.
Personally, given ridiculous costs of everything in that system, I don’t see how any of these proposals can come close to working, especially in current economic environment.
And re: food/agriculture, anyone know if there’s been headway determining what’s killing off massive swath’s of bee-keeping’s little unsung heroes? Some time back, seems there was at least some evidence bio-engineered seed (eg: essentially built in pesticide) might bee the culprit.
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I’ll tell you what I’d like to see… take the cream of blogosphere: econ, energy, climate, politics, law… and have ‘em all put their collective heads together. Take the next step to construct online policy forums. Get the best/brightest, enough in each category for diverse ruminations… deep thoughts. Keep ‘em on purpose. Make ‘em serious… deadly serious.
Move to next level in graphic representations: eg. find ways to communicate concepts w/better online visual representations so that people can get the essence of things w/out having to spend hrs/days reading
EG. just to next level… from this splintered post election non-connected and un-plugged-from-BO peripheral gum-banging stuff, and establish really serious, visible, extremely detailed policy discussions/debates/plans etc. Set goals, and get there… be serious about including the best, and eliminating the yahoos.
I mean, either progressives have really good ideas or they don’t. Either they’re going to get in the game or not. And if they (we) do get in the game going to next step, we’re going to have to fight and scrape to do it just like we had to do getting some dems elected because there’s a whole lot of sacred cows playing gatekeeper at nearly every step.
Wall Street (”free market”) has utterly failed… not just in choosing most needed investments but even in delivering lower priority ones. Enron (free market energy trading), the several Satellite communications companies, tans-pacific hi-speed cable, ridiculously unproductive “internet bubble” trying to move every cat & dog storefront online by utterly failed in establishing usable online knowledge so missing from so much: transportation planning, best medical practices, local water management… it’s dizzying.
Why does wall street remain esconced as “decider”?… is it a biblical imperative or something? Why can’t good-government take a whack at convening something like on-line stuff I propose and put their full force behind making priorities reality. I mean, how much practice does Wall Street need to get things right?
I say let them do what banker are supposed to do, and put decisions about what needs to be done w/few $$ we have left in hands of folks interested in what’s best for society and the world rather than “maximize investor value”. I mean, sheesh… we’ve actually got laws… laws, prohibiting any authority from even getting a peek @ these financial-products until the latest hair-brained scheme goes belly up. And current structure dependably pays creators of these pigs $m(s) until pressures from returning investor value reliable produce junk bonds, worthless CDOs, ENRON type off book “financial entitites”… eg. wasteland.
Hello?
It’s going to take grabbing whole lot of our supported lawmakers by the ears, strapping ‘em in the chair and making ‘em listen, ’cause god bless ‘em but there’s a damn big gap between where-they-are-and-what-they-know and where we need to go.
That’s an excellent suggestion. On a tangentially related note, on another thread I read the Berkeley City Council plans to vote on insisting the U.S. prosecute John Yoo for war crimes. It is way past time for sitting around waiting for our elected officials to get things right. They appear hell-bent on following the old adage that a person can’t understand something when their livelihood (or elected seat) depends on them not understanding it.
I think organizing an on-line collaborative effort for progressives to really contemplate how we want the world to function, rather than the way it currently does would have a tremendous impact. Our current government at all levels: federal, state, and local subsidize certain businesses and business practices making them more profitable and giving them a leg up on their competition. Those subsidies (along with various trade policies and domestic rules) are what keep us in the straightjacket we are in. We need to think broadly about how to restructure the whole system to favor a different way (a more resilient way) of doing business. It wouldn’t be easy, but it would be fun. And it is clearly necessary.
Thanks for that excellent comment. I couldn’t agree more. All of the bailout brouhaha has been a combination of tinkering around the edges, sticking a couple fingers in the hundreds of holes in the dike, and whistling past the graveyard (yep, I’m all about mixed metaphors ; )
I’ve been fascinated by all the post-election discussion on-line and on the radio (I don’t watch much TV) that has talked about what “change” will look like. There are big ideas out there, but Obama has surrounded himself with DC establishment insiders. Now there is a good argument to be made that he needs them to get things accomplished. But where are the big ideas, the paradigm shift that is needed going to come from? Who will he be talking to?
We have a window of opportunity here, but I suspect it is a small one, because with the way the government is hemorrhaging money to no or little effect, we may find ourselves too bankrupt in the future to act on a bold new vision. FWIW I’m not opposed to Keynesian hemorrhaging of money so long as it paves the way for future development, but right now the hemorraghing is vanishing into the ether.
We have multiple crises, all of which are interconnected… You can’t fix the energy problem without addressing crop subsidies and the food system. You can’t fix the Big 2.5 without fixing health care. You can’t fix the environment without fixing transportation. It goes on and on, those are just small individual threads in a complicated web of interactions. All of these things need to be addressed as a system, but DC appears intent on a piecemeal approach. With the conflicting vested interests at play, I don’t see how piecemeal will get us out of this mess.
One other thing missing from the conversation is the notion of “too big to fail”. If that is true, whether banks or car companies, then it is high time that two things occur. Number one, that any bailed out company needs to be broken up into smaller pieces (we did it with Ma Bell, so we can do it again) and then we need to regulate how big an individual company can get (by percentage of total market share in its sector? by percentage of workforce? — lets face it, none of us would miss GM et al., if it weren’t for the enormous job losses that would ensue). We should never again find ourselves in a position where a company is too big to fail.
This would have additional benefits as well I think. A democracy can only flourish when power is distributed. Our current set of enormous multi-national companies wield far too much power economically and politically. With a broader set of players in a free market it is harder to game the system (especially if the system is properly regulated to maintain a level playing field — something we have not seen in decades). Distributed systems, whether economic, political, internet, or energy are more resilient by design. A failure of one component does not bring down the whole network.
For too long we have been content with a small number of big players — whether economic or political. We need to rethink our approach from a top-down (aka “trickle-down”) system to a networked/distributed system. Politically this would include a functioning Congress, which at this point appears way too much to ask for. So perhaps we should start in other areas, smaller more competitive companies would be a good start.
Economies of Scale have the inherent advantage of increased productivity which should lead to better product and lower prices. Unfortunately, it also leads to less competition and thus the extra productivity translates instead to higher profits for company. In my opinion, a serious flaw in our economic model. Regulation is the missing ingredient….
Well said. You should organize your topics a little more, and expand on them, but I like your take on things.
I too get the eery feeling that there is an opportunity here that is not going to last, and somebody with some cajones and real ability needs to step into the gap to take advantage of it.
That has to stop we need to get people working.
Where are the oil industry executives? Why aren’t THEY paying for the bailout?
There is no goddamn question whatsoever that the price of oil was manipulated by sheer greed and hubris. In concert with the IMF/World Bank, the oil barons and banksters set the price of oil every single morning in the futures market, agreeing upon that days pricing action in advance, according to their long-term script.
Lindsey Williams revealed the entire scam, and said straight out that they were subsequently going to crush the price of oil below $50.
By taking it up to $150 first, they literally CAUSED the economic crisis we now face. The money to pay for all of the problems that US taxpayers are now being saddled with exists within the coffers of the robber barons, the oil-soaked banksters that planned the entire thin in advance, lied about matters of “supply & demand” – pushed investors into new green technologies – then bet on the short side, making literally billions all the way back down to the Depression that they themselves have intentionally caused.
It is in fact criminal and traitorous.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…..re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…..re=related
While the total miles driven by US citizens is down 3% from year ago levels, the prices of oil is down more than 2/3?
Now somebody tell me what supply and demand had to do with oil priced at $150 per barrel.
This is called “evidence” of price fixing… For a class action law suit.
The terror premium on the price of oil is gone. People were willing to pay more for oil while we had troops in the middle east because they thought quite rightly I think that Bush could go nuts at any minute and invade Iran.
Obama said he will bring the troops home so the Terror Premium is gone. That and all the speculators who borrowed money to buy oil when it was over $100 a barrel are selling.
Then the money spent on excess gas costs and born by the american people should be added to the cost of the war in Iraq>
Agreed and to the list of GW’s many failure’s
The “terror premium” is gone?
So I guess the recent orchestrated attacks in Mumbai, coinciding with the identically timed terror threat to the New York train system made the pricer of oil shoot higher then, right?
There never was a “terror premium.” That was just another Rovian branding strategy – like “AlQaeda In Iraq.”
No oil in India that I know of or New York
Sen. Corker just said on the Today Show something like “US makers are way out of line with other automaker’s…” (I only caught it late). The data above say otherwise. Once again, facts don’t matter on the hill.
Lying s**ks of ….(republicans)
Why wouldn’t the Republicons lie? It serves them well and they know the corporate media will not call them out on their dishonesty.
Oil prices have fallen about 70 percent since peaking at $147.27 in July.
On July 28, Lindsey Williams was interviewed. He stated that oil was positively going to crash to $50. He stated it based on a conversation he had with a top oil executive. The price of oil is NOT set by market conditions.
“This is not a conspiracy, this is an agenda:”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKSfnAXGnVY
They are crashing the price of oil specifically to bankrupt the oil producing countries, forcing their citizens to rise up against their leadership – thereby enabling the black bag operations that result in new dictators being installed, and new deals cut with American (Rockefeller = Exxon/Mobil) and British (The Crown = BP)and Dutch (Queen Beatrix = Royal Dutch Shell) oil companies.
The oil companies want you to forget that they caused the greatest depression by their price fixing activities in the preceding months and years. They want you to forget that our military is in actuality, their security force on the ground…and their mossad operative were intentionally blowing up pipelines and causing mayhem to ensure that Iraqi oil stayed OFF the market.
Iran is next.
As you said, the data is pretty meaningless.
I cannot stand Shelby and the MSM needs to quit giving him a bullhorn for his Anti-American rhetoric. CBS was the latest this morning. The only positive note of the CBS interview was that Harry was able to get Shelby to state unequivocally that there is nothing the American Automakers can say or do to change his mind. Pretty much paints him as the anti-american right wing idealogue that he is.
Will Obama use the 30 million dollars left over from his campaign to set up soup kitchens for unemployed auto workers?
Prius is very popular in the bayarea but demand seems low and there’s a ample supply.
November, I was immediately offered 1,000 off MSRP for a Prius when I did a on-line query about availability and prices. I expected a dealer markup over MSRP.
We bought a Pontiac Vibe.
The Malibu is a hybrid. That might be helping its sales.
Actually, the “free market” succeeded…in enriching the few insiders who were provided with a weekly copy of the script. Knowing tomorrow’s news, in advance, and trading on it, can make one exceptionally wealthy.
They own the SEC – so self-deal without concern.
EW
Do we know how many foreign transplant auto co’s employee’s purchase auto’s from their employers compared to the Big 3?
Sooner or later we have to address how many foreign companies can come in our country and dictate our wage and benefit policies.
I liked the part when Wagner was questioned abt if health care was passed in the 80’s wouldn’t be in this mess today and that the auto co’s had never endorsed national health care. Wagnor still didn’t endorse national health care when given the chance. It was like we scratch your back and you scratch ours but he didn’t bite.
The workers at Delphi that make $15. and hour and the green card immigrates that work at Delphi here in Mi and make $7. an hour do not make enough money to purchase a new car and the new hires the big 3 getting $15. an hour will not be able to purchase a new car. They will be stuck driving gas hogs rather than electric cars or hybrids.
The Big 3 auto employees could afford a new car can the foreign auto’s employees afford a new vehicle?
I forget who said it but what is this abt gov can’t make decisions for(manage) large companies very well, the gov has been letting corporations, lawyers and lobbyist tell the politicians how to make the laws which run the corporations and essentially “managing” them for decades.
Knut: you’re confusing Ecclestone with Max (son of Oswald) Mosley.
I was struck by Jon Stewart’s little “autoerotic” commentary last night. The Congresscritters think they know about the auto business. They don’t. They know they don’t know shit about Big FInance. That’s why the bankers get the blank check.
Yes, it was Max.
And, it is hard to tell what the critters do really know much about, with the possible exception of gladhanding and preening. It is depressing to watch them in action.