Reporting on the High Stakes 31-Country Fight Over Flattering the World’s Most Volatile Narcissist
WaPo had an exceptionally good summary of what happened in the European leaders’ meeting with President Trump yesterday. In just the first three paragraphs, it described the speed, the unity, the goal, and the outcome — effectively, to make it clear Putin remains the obstacle to peace.
In hurried D.C. summit, Europeans try to bend Trump away from Kremlin
Leaders of European and NATO countries presented a united front Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after racing to Washington hoping to steer President Donald Trump away from some of the concessions he appeared ready to grant the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine.
After several hours of meetings, sharp differences remained evident between the leaders and Trump, who declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for peace, even as he has continued his bombardment of Ukraine and demanded that Kyiv make sweeping, painful concessions to stop the war.
But Ukrainian and European leaders appeared encouraged by Trump’s openness to security guarantees for Ukraine, which Putin might not accept. That could make the Kremlin the obstacle to Trump’s peace deal, insulating Ukraine from having to choose between untenable concessions of territory and inviting Trump’s ire.
Over eight articles, that was more than the NYT could muster.
In addition to an article on Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s suit (which WaPo matched) and an entire article on a letter attributed to Melania Trump shared with Putin, barely updated with mention of Olena Zelenska’s letter to Melania, NYT had two separate articles on flattery, one professional, one from MoDo’s protégé, Shawn McCreesh. (WaPo did dedicate an article on how many times Europeans thanked Trump.) What feels like NYT’s main story on the meeting — bylined by Maggie Haberman, David Sanger, and Jim Tankersley — measured the meeting in terms of a peace deal (that is, Trump’s perspective), not Ukrainian security; it was placed in the upper right corner of the front page, not where a main story would be. The top-left story, in that lead position, instead focused on whether Zelenskyy could trust Trump, still making Trump the hero of the story. Sanger also wrote a short article on what it would take for a military force to be credible. Then there’s the Five Takeaways article that seemed to understand none of the dynamic laid out in WaPo’s first three paragraphs.
Yet even the professional NYT story on the effort to use flattery, by Neil MacFarquhar, still missed several dynamics of the effort. It focused on the immediate, apparently successful, stalling of Trump’s capitulation to Putin.
But there is a larger goal to the flattery and it’s not just to help Trump achieve a meaningful peace deal (as distinct from a political win). As WaPo described in ¶12, this is about the security of all of Europe.
Monday’s unusual group meeting at the White House continued an extraordinary sequence of diplomacy that could shape security in Europe for a generation, with European leaders fearing that Putin was getting the upper hand in the breakneck peace effort. Trump reveled at Monday’s tableau, saying that the White House had never seen such a collection of prime ministers and presidents, all of whom dropped what they were doing to rush to Washington to try to salvage Ukraine’s security.
The goal was to prevent Trump from capitulating to Russia and in the process leaving Europe vulnerable to follow-on attacks. The goal of flattering Trump was, presumably, if not to persuade him (for example, that the cease fire idea he abandoned because Putin told him to, is necessary), then to present the unanimous commitment to the things Steve Witkoff naively claimed Russia also backed, starting with security guarantees.
Along the way, Zelenskyy and the others made asks — for powerful US weapons to use to fend off Russian attacks, for troops (presumably including troops from NATO countries, along with Ireland) in Ukraine to guarantee the peace, for a face-to-face meeting that would position Zelenskyy as Putin’s equal — that will be impossible for Putin to accept. The last of those, a face-to-face meeting, is one of the things Trump discussed when he spoke with Putin during the meeting, like calling for a lifeline; as WSJ reports, Russia is already equivocating on that goal.
There are several possible outcomes of publicly celebrating goals that Witkoff (whom Michael Weiss has dubbed “Dim Philby”) claims Russia wants, too. Most immediately, it might get Trump to sour on Putin again, and demand Putin make some concessions or face sanctions. Barring that, it would help create the perception that Trump’s capitulation is just that, an embrace of Putin’s plan that doesn’t offer what Trump wants to claim it does, which will make Trump’s capitulation more politically costly for him. And if that happens, it matters that both the leader of the EU and of NATO were in DC backing Ukraine: Those are the alliances that Trump would need to snub to make that capitulation, with all the significance it holds.
Trump wanted to do this for free. Putin wanted Trump to do this for free. It was part of the point, for Putin. The visit thwarted that plan.
Perhaps my favorite moment in the public events of the day came when Trump invited Alexander Stubb, Finland’s President, to speak. Stubb golfs with Trump and so is chummy with him (which didn’t prevent Trump from not recognizing him), but his country is among those that Russia would target if Trump were to enable follow-up attacks. Stubb labeled Russia’s invasion as a war of aggression but reminded that even small countries can withstand such invasions, as Finland did after WWII.
Some of the international media might wonder, “Why is the President of Finland here?” I think the reason is probably that we might come from a small country, but we have a long border with Russia, over 800 miles. We’ve our own historical experience with Russia from World War II, the Winter War, the War of Continuation. And if I look at the silver lining of where we stand right now, we found a solution in 1944, I’m sure that we’ll be able to find a solution in 2025 to end Russia’s war of aggression. The situation is very difficult but that’s why we’re here.
A Finn, from a country with the lived experience of facing down Russia, promised that “we” — which might include Trump or not — will find “a solution to end Russia’s war of aggression,” a war that extends far beyond Ukraine.
Sure, Donald Trump didn’t give the Europeans the sycophantic treatment he accorded Putin.
But because they played to his narcissism, it provided a platform to make the case that most American journalists won’t make, one which most of Trump’s handlers are incompetent to make: That if Trump does capitulate, it will not serve peace.
Here’s what NYT doesn’t seem to understand, for its flood of flattering portrayals of Trump as the hero of all things.
Other people, when they rush to play to the man’s narcissism, do so with specific goals and a clear sense of how his narcissism makes him easy to manipulate.
A man so easily swayed by flattery as Trump is, is weak, not the hero of all things the NYT portrays him as. And only if you understand that can you make such flattery useful.
Update: NYT has since added this analysis, which is far better at describing the state of play.
In my high school history classes we read about the English kings who were manipulated by the French. Now we can all viscerally appreciate those episodes from the past.
President Macron did this exact thing very skillfully in his interview with Kristin Welker, when asked about Trump claiming Putin was receptive to peace as a personal favor to Trump. As if Putin would so easily surrender his long-held view of Russia’s interest. Macron turned it into a potential “good thing,” as a potential Trump strength, in joining it with more vital aspects that would be important to securing the future for Ukraine and Europe. Avoiding offense or challenge, Macron was gaming Trump in the direction he wants to lead him.
It would be a mistake to disregard the objective factors that explain Trump’s soft stance vs Putin much better than any of his (numerous but banal) character weaknesses.
I mean, what if Trump embraced Putin’s demands mainly because, based on empirical data, he simply realized that Russia cannot be defeated. What if he realized that all attempts to win the war have been in vain: NATO is unable to arm a Ukrainian counter-offensive with even a faint chance of success.
Maybe he sees that Russia is advancing and Putin has aimed his atomic bombs at Ukraine. Maybe faces turned “ashen” because Putin (once again) made clear that he wouldn’t hesitate to strike Ukraine with nuclear warheads. And surely the USA, even under its dumbest leaders, will never risk a nuclear confrontation with Russia over some pieces of land in a far-off country.
And maybe he abandoned the idea of a ceasefire because he realized it would not stop Europe from continuing to demand Putin’s unconditional retreat from all of Ukraine, ignoring that, if the fighting in the Donbass continues, Putin will continue to bomb Kiev and Ukraine will eventually lose even more of its territory.
Sounds like you are advocating for Vlad.
While all that may be true, I do not think Putin is stupid enough to risk nuclear war either.
US and the EU can still impose more sanctions to bring the Russian economy to its knees and should do so.
“If” and “maybe” are doing a lot of lifting here. It’s as though you are considering Trump to be a rational actor. “Empirical Data” suggests otherwise.
[Welcome back to emptywheel. Please use the SAME USERNAME and email address each time you comment so that community members get to know you. You attempted to publish this comment as “dfbaum” which will auto-moderation if used again; it has been edited to reflect your original username which meets the site’s 8-letter/character minimum. Please check your browser’s cache and autofill; future comments may not publish if username does not match. /~Rayne]
I appreciate the discussion of Trump’s possible reliance on empirical facts to explain his recent flips and flops (“50 days! No, 10 days! No, meet me in Alaska!”), but Trump’s unquestioning acceptance of Putin’s lies (“no other country uses voting by mail!”, “if Ukraine doesn’t surrender all of the oblasts I’ve failed to take since 2014, I’ll just take them!”) disproves that theory for me.
Trump believes Putin, and so does Witkoff (“dim Philby”). The End.
“And surely the USA, even under its dumbest leaders, will never risk a nuclear confrontation with Russia over some pieces of land in a far-off country.” – WOW.
You might want to check the actual distance from Washington to every other NATO country except Canada. They are ALL “far off countries”, and “risking a nuclear confrontation” has been the bottom line for NATO since its formation.
That was the last-ditch tactic to stop the Soviet Union bloc, if it decided to take West Germany (just to name the most obvious target).
Google “Fulda Gap”.
LOL. Maybe Trump will smell the roses, tear up his stones, and replant the Rose Garden.
Your comment seems to attribute Trump’s activities to some idea of national interest, some shared conception of that, and, frankly, that ship has sailed.
But I want to ask, how does Putin threatening Ukraine with nuclear warheads, supposedly, become Putin threatening us with them? There is a strange sleight of hand in your rhetoric, almost as if you came here to promote the propaganda of nuclear terror. For my part, if Putin maneuvers the American people into the position we become terrorized by nuclear fear of Russia, it will be within an unfolding kayfabe spectacle with political rationale. Many informed observers believe Trump and Putin are coordinating to end American democracy, and at this stage, nuclear terror would justify Trump’s role as our Dear Leader.
Russia cannot be defeated huh? Hey Alexa, what is the Soviet Afghan war?
“based on empirical data” – what data? Are you basing this conjecture on data about Ukraine versus Russia, NATO versus Russia? You certainly cannot be claiming the the world’s 3rd largest military based on personnel could not defeat Russia when the only thing holding the US back from easily blowing Putin off the face of the planet is Trump’s narcissism and daddy issues combined with quisling GOP, NATO’s articles, and just enough citizens who still believe in bellum iustum.
“NATO is unable to arm a Ukrainian counter-offensive” – again, how do you support this possible conjecture? NATO can do this easily combining EU military with US if Trump wasn’t holding the GOP in thrall and he wasn’t intent on destroying NATO himself. We also haven’t seen the rest of NATO take its gloves off yet — close, but not yet.
“Putin (once again) made clear that he wouldn’t hesitate to strike Ukraine with nuclear warheads” — the same dude who was acting sketchy back in Moscow, who has heightened air security around his bloated Valdai dacha (and destroyed his Sochi dacha)?
“maybe he abandoned the idea of a ceasefire” — how about Occam’s razor here, the same one Netanyahu has applied with Gaza: Trump is a spineless narcissist whose existence is transactional. They need not make any effort at ceasefire because Trump has no morals, no ethics, and zero true patriotism, demonstrated repeatedly in both his first and second terms. I don’t even need links to support this given how many times Trump has kissed both Putin’s and Netanyahu’s asses in public.
It’s a mistake to publish a comment with so little supporting documentation to bolster what-ifs.
Some supporting evidence
1) NATO armed the Ukrainian counter-offensive of June 2023 to the point of even emptying its own stocks, and yet it ended in a disastrous failure – which is why I conclude it cannot arm another one. And this year, June 10, Mark Rutte declared: “In terms of ammunition, Russia produces in three months what the whole of NATO produces in a year.”
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235867.htm
2) The US government has consistently treated Putin’s nuclear threats as a credible and serious risk. E.g.
Jack Sullivan and Antony Blinken:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/26/politics/us-warns-putin-nuclear-weapons-analysis
or more recently Vipin Narang and other US officials:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/vladimir-putin-draws-a-nuclear-red-line-for-the-west-how-credible-is-it/articleshow/113707071.cms
Reply to Val Brumel
August 19, 2025 at 11:06 am
First, you’re citing a 2022 article, a 2023 counteroffensive, and Sep 2024 article. Stale.
Second, are you fucking kidding me? I’ll raise you Operation Spiderweb, June 2025, run without notifying the US.
The math changed in June 2025. Putin’s destruction of his own dacha in Sochi in 2024 was further proof Putin knew the math was going to change.
(image source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/satellite-pics-of-2-russian-airbases-reveal-extent-of-damage-by-ukrainian-drones-8589914)
Rayne, I’ll reply to your reply ( August 19, 2025 at 12:19 pm) here because for some reason the direct reply option seems to be missing.
US officials have expressed grave concerns regarding Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb,” particularly about the risk of triggering nuclear escalation.
Here’s Kellogg:
“When you attack an opponent’s part of their national survival system, which is their nuclear triad, that means your risk level goes up.”
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/ukraine-playing-with-fire-by-targeting-russias-nuclear-bomber-assets/
Here’s the Atlantic Council:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraines-drone-strikes-offer-four-big-lessons-for-us-nuclear-strategists/
See also:
https://defensetalks.com/operation-spiders-web-and-the-risks-of-nuclear-entanglement/
Reply to Val Brumel
19-AUG-2025 12:54 pm ET
First, direct replies end after an intial comment and 3 replies to prevent ziggurating to columns impossible to read.
Second, did you really read the shit you shared?
— National Security Journal: They quote Kellogg…and who does Kellogg work for? Jeebus, come on. What do you think one of Trump’s dudes is going to say?
— Atlantic Council: They write,
1. The risk of nuclear escalation over conventional attacks is exaggerated <<< ding-ding-ding 2. Nuclear forces are only as dependable as their defenses 3. Drones should be factored into nuclear-capabilities planning 4. Special forces should be at the center of major power competition Ukraine demonstrated the three latter points. -- DefenseTalks: This is a first-year War Studies essay bordering on fappery by a Pakistani journalist who could have drafted this with AI. I mean, OMG, "To navigate this precarious situation, Ukraine and its Western allies must show some restraint while targeting strategic bases." Really? You think? You don't think taking 18 months to pull together Spiderweb and excluding the US wasn't a demonstration of restraint? We're done here. I don't have any more time to spend on your pro-Russian
demoralizatsiyabullshit.Eighty-one-year old Keith Kellogg is a committed hard right Republican. Every job in his cv reflects that, from being in Special Forces in Cambodia during Vietnam, to his work for CheneyBush’s Iraqi Coalition Provisional Authority.
The CPA went out of its way, for example, not to hire anyone who spoke Arabic or was familiar with Iraq or the Middle East. They were hired and rewarded for their political loyalty, not their competence.
So let’s return our regular broadcasting back to reality. Putin is failing and will almost certainly fail.
First, if you bothered to read the blog post you would recognize that strategically Putin has managed to coalesce almost the entirety of Europe (as well as other aligned democracies) against Russia. Europe is arming and acting collectively in response to Putin in ways never seen before and frankly difficult to imagine not that long ago. European defense spending on Ukraine already exceeds US spending.
Second, Russia faces the existential threat of collapsing as a nation state. Putin scurried off to Alaska (exposing himself to risks internal and external) for the primary purpose of stopping the imposition of secondary sanctions. Trump is wildly erratic and mentally decomposing, and the Russians can see this as well as anyone. If the secondary sanctions took hold and Russian sales of oil and gas to Chine, India, and Turkey came to an end Russia would likely collapse economically in the space of a few months. It cannot replace the hundreds of billions in revenues from these sales and on top of the existing economic stresses it is game over.
Third, Russia is losing on the battlefield. Since November 2022, Russia has suffered over 1 million casualties in exchange for conquering approximately 1% of Ukraine’s territory. It has lost extraordinary amounts of hardware it cannot replace. It is being technically outmatched by Ukrainian (European supported) military innovation. Ukraine just announced a Ukrainian built cruise missile with a 3000 km range.
Fourth, there are significant power struggles and purges going on within elite Russian circles. Russia lacks the necessary non-corrupt leadership to pursue the Ukraine war and it is unclear who in the power structure will survive in the coming months.
Now you won’t find these observations in the MSM. So let me suggest some youtube channels: Jason Jay Smart; Ukraine Matters; Reporting from Ukraine; Anna from Ukraine; Econ Lessons: Vlad Vexler; and I could go on but I doubt you would be interested.
I endorse all you have said. There are indeed other credible reliable YouTube channels as you say, and in particular I should like to mention @TheMilitaryShow. For a particular reason. They are exceptionally good at the geo-politics of military operations and activities. And in recent times have reported on the re-alignments in the Caucuses and across the Caspian.
A TLDR not often mentioned in MSM is the withering of the “Collective Security Treaty Organisation” through which Russia managed relations with former Soviet States by manipulating ethnic conflicts involving enclaves and exclaves, with a divide and rule strategy, by playing the arbiter in “frozen conflicts”.
Trump’s self congratulation about solving wars is ridiculous. But one conflict, with a peace agreement endorsed with a WH visit is the Armenia Azerbaijan is notable. The real broker for this is Turkey.
Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have recently engaged in joint military exercises. This is a very big deal. The ex Soviet States are increasingly looking to Europe, and Turkey is flexing its muscles in the region. Obviously this is complicated from a European perspective, but disastrous from Putin’s perspective, especially with respect to the oil and gas pipelines in the region.
Putin has lots of problems, none of which are easy to solve, making it more imperative for him to push on with the war, but which simultaneously leaves him unable to maintain his grip on power vis a vis States reluctant to continue to be Russian client regimes.
Thanks, SteveBev. I’ve especially been wondering about Turkey. Good to know.
@Savage Librarian
August 19, 2025 at 11:45 am
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Cfa-NwFPnao
This is a “TheMilitaryShow” explainer on Armenia from 18 July. It doesn’t cover all the ground I summarised above, which was a précis from several of their presentations. But I commend it as a good starting point to consider the essential issue – Russia losing its grip.
Turkey features in quite a few of their analyses, and in particular I will try to dig up the discussion of joint military exercises I mentioned
WRT Turkey: I’m wondering how things are changing there now that the Syrian mess has greatly abated? Syrian refugees are returning in large numbers, and according to the International Organization for Migration, more than 300k have returned from Turkey alone.
https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/reports/Syria%20Baseline%20R5_June_2025.pdf
That’s a lot of societal pressure-relief, no? I’m wondering how that might be affecting (improving, I assume) Turkey’s ability to project influence in those cases you mention?
My granddaughter is a singer-songwriter and she traveled around the world solo in ’91, spending about a month in Turkey, busking on the streets of Istanbul for a bit. The Syrians were pretty aggressive about their own musical turf there, that being a main source of income from tourists. She did a lot of polite listening to some interesting music. She also spent about a year in Tbilisi a couple years later, and she’s heartbroken about what’s going down there now, part and parcel with Russia’s post-soviet expansionism.
Brain fart, granddaughter “circumnavigated” in 2019-20. Synapses flying loose more frequently lately. I mentioned it only partially to brag about gdtr, mostly to point out that Turkey has been under great internal stress “accomodating” all those folks, and others as well. Hard to be expansive when you’re skirmishing with the Kurds and herding refugees around. The PKK, btw, had its origins in Marxism. And the Russians sponsored the Kurds directly back in the day. I am surprised though that Georgia is participating with Turkey. Talk about being out of the loop!
https://www.thearmenianreport.com/post/armenia-joins-nato-military-drills-in-georgia
She sent me pics of the crowds at Parliament protesting the Georgian govt failure to support Ukraine after the second invasion in late Feb ’22, which she attended. Those protests continued to grow after the govt pulled out of EU negotiations. This must be the upshot?
SteveBev and Bruce, this article may be of interest to you:
Turkey’s “adaptive opportunist” diplomacy with Russia – 7/30/25
Are Turkey and Russia enemies or friends? A. Erdi Öztürk and Eda Ayaydın explain the two countries have a complex relationship that can best be understood as ambivalent and shaped by “adaptive opportunism”.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2025/07/30/turkeys-adaptive-opportunist-diplomacy-with-russia-putin-erdogan/
@Savage Librarian
August 19, 2025 at 7:40 pm
I was interested to see the Turkey-Russian relationship explained by reference to “adaptive opportunism” for some reason I couldn’t open the actual blog piece, but able to access a summary.
Nobody is ever sure whose ally Turkey is, that’s for sure.
And as Russian influence/control over the Caucuses and Central Asian former Soviet States wanes, Turkey advances.
to SL and SB:
Thanks also for that link, SL, very informative. Turkey’s role in the world is convoluted in the extreme, and that piece gives some context how they pulled off leading that NATO exercise in Georgia with all those adverse players involved, and how maybe the illicit Dream Party in Tbilisi has got the pass from Putin to let it happen despite their ongoing refusal to adhere to their Constitution’s requirement for EU inclusion.
I sure would like to know how Armenia agreed to stand next to Turkey (who still doesn’t recognize the genocide the Turks committed) and the Azaris with whom their enmity has been much less on the back burner. I could see flare ups happening at their camps being something they’re consciously hoping to avoid.
Back to Ukraine, on Tuesday I was listening to our local PBS call-in show, Maine Calling, and they hosted several UKN expats and got calls from several others. It was a very well done show and the stuff that came out was extremely revealing as to what’s going on both there and in the minds and lives of refugees. Very much recommended:
https://www.mainepublic.org/show/maine-calling/2025-08-19/ukrainians-in-maine
And also Tuesday Here and Now had a great show on Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast being raised as a concession UKN should make to stop the war. It’s very clear about how stupid that would be.
https://www.npr.org/2025/08/19/nx-s1-5507119/why-russia-wants-ukraines-donetsk-region
Thanks Amicus
To your list, I’d also add @SiliconCurtain
especially for the long-format interviews.
Occam’s razor: Trump and his team are in way over their heads. Any negotiation that cannot be accomplished by playground bullying or Trump’s so-called “charm offensive” will be out of reach for this administration.
Occam’s razor, as a metaphor to analyze Trump’s conduct, is highly overrated.
Works great for a narcissistic one-trick pony, however.
Wasn’t it the editor of Talking Points Memo who proposed ‘Marshall’s Razor’? That is: Find the stupidest solution, and that will be the alternative Trump picks.
It does rather rely on the application of logic and reason. Both in short supply in the current administration.
No, Eichhoernchen, I don’t think it does.
So you are giving the Turd credit for having an awareness similar to Lyndon Johnson’s 1968 (or earlier) awareness that Vietnam was an ooopsie? Not going to buy that. Even if his brain weren’t decomposing faster than Dracula exposed to sunlight, the Turd has never shown a world-view any more nuanced than “transactionalism”. On their worst days, Vlad and Xi Jinping are both capable of getting him to roll-over or box him into a corner. Except for the mafioso – style tariff leverage game, Turd has no foreign policy. None. Any professionals within State, DoD, or intelligence are either gone or keeping their heads down. This guy is so dim / diminished and feckless that he could get us into conflict as easily as he soils himself.
What if Putin really believed that Ukraine would have folded after 3 days?
Putin has exposed the weaknesses of Russian military. Yes, Russia has nuclear weapons. So does the US. No one wins from their use.
Yeah, sure, and maybe every one of those European heads of state will sit on the sidelines forever while Russia ‘wins’ in Ukraine and comes for their countries next. And maybe no other of the world’s countries join in the fight to save Europe via Ukraine ever. And maybe no secret meetings and deals are happening right now for plans B, C and D if plan A, Trump, fails. And maybe this is obviously not Europe and Britain’s first World War rodeo.
My comment was in response to Val Brummel’s comments.
Other OPs are probably unaware that Valery Brumel was a SOVIET high jumper in the 60’s who once held the world record. IF you want to simp for Russia, at least openly admit it. SMH
Thanks for making it more obvious that we do have commenters who attempt to screw with our heads.
If they’re willing to try it here, what are they getting away with elsewhere?
Who died in 2003, according to WP:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeriy_Brumel
Val, I don’t know why this is the case, but for the last two months Ukraine has made some very significant damage to Russia starting with Operation Spiderweb.
Ukraine is daily blowing up Russia’s communications systems it uses for military purposes, including cutting off communications in the Crimea area. It is destroying oil refineries to the point the Kremlin said there would be no oil exports as they have lost 6% of available oil production. Russia’s rail system which Russia moves materiel for the war to the front lines are being systematically destroyed, sucking up more resources to repair them.
Ukraine is turning the tables on Putin and defining a new era of war operations due to it’s innovative use of cheap drones to destroy factories and plants deep inside Russia that without, Russia can make no forward motion on overtaking Ukraine.
Ukraine has also made incremental push backs against Russian held areas of Donbas.
Russia is going broke and Russians are starting to feel it, especially among the oligarchs whose support the Kremlin needs. Russia is often having to close it’s skies due to Ukrainian drones, causing log jams of flights as angry Russians are stuck at the airport waiting for Russia to give the all clear.
The point being that rumors are coming out that Putin is in a real jam with Ukraine and now his own population who are witnessing Ukraine bomb targets inside Russia daily
If mainstream/legacy media would show Ukrainian successes and their ingenuity along with the fact that Putin is destroying Russia economically and killing nearly a million citizens, it would be so obvious that if Trump would put additional sanctions on Russia and give Ukraine the arms they are requesting, Putin would loose this war by winter and it’s quite likely the Oligarchs would turn against him for all he money they are loosing.
I find the podcast/youtube shows from the Times (ironic I know) do excellent reporting on the war with fantastic guests such as Bill Browder, and my favorite Ukrainian Winning YouTube guy is Jason Jay Smart.
Go dig in European sources and you’ll see how tenuous Putin’s regime is. Hence why Vlad needed that photo shoot with Trump. I believe that is the true base reason Vlad came, and to troll us with Lavrof and his CCCP shirt.
But PLEASE, do not make the assumption that Ukraine is loosing terribly and will never win against a larger country lead by a man who has perfect control over his own country. That is a bunch of bullshit.
PS Running to a vet appointment now and haven’t done the best editing, apologies in advance.
FC
Excellent analysis.
That the N.Y. Times asked if Zelenskyy could trust Trump speaks volumes about the depths to which the country has sunk. Do the analysts and editors not understand this?
The news media can get so wrapped up in the TikTok that it fails to understand the gravity of this moment. And The NY Times can’t seem to shake its preference for seeing everything through the lens of domestic politics.
The heads of state of the European countries came to see Trump because they understand that Putin will not stop with Ukraine. This is existential for Europeans. The unusual, last minute nature of the diplomatic push should be setting off alarm bells. Yet the news media wants to hit the snooze button.
Waiting for Trump to tell us that Russia will go no further, since Putin promised him they wouldn’t.
Oh wait, he already did that “Putin wants to find a solution”.
Since he also thinks that Ukraine started the war, his opinions are worthless.
I appreciate this post even more than most of your posts, and I appreciate all of your posts.
I wish every American would catch the “dim Philby” characterization of Witkoff. I am positive I could do a better job, if only because I would accept support from US State Department.
I think there is also the chance that the NYT is affirmatively and consciously flattering Trump for their own ends, specifically vs Bezos and the WaPo. Bezos has chosen to stifle their editorial page, and thrown millions at Trump and his various committees (campaign, inauguration, library). The NYT — the hometown paper from whom Trump most wants approval — is throwing fawning coverage at him. They minimized and finally pushed out voices like Nobel-winning economist Krugman, and encourage Maggie Habs and her ilk.
I have been stuck on Stafford Beer’s heuristic “The purpose of a system is what it does” since I used it in a post recently.
What has the NYT’s been doing? Fluffing Trump. What is the NYT’s purpose? Apparently it’s fluffing Trump.
[Yes, readers, I know what “fluffing” is in the sex industry. You need not waste our time and pixels persuading me massaging a malignant narcissist’s ego in print is not the same as keeping his tiny mushroom inflated. You do you.]
Good to see you, Rayne!
*wink*
Peterr, I appreciate both Marcy noting “WaPo had an exceptionally good summary of what happened in the European leaders’ meeting with President Trump yesterday” and your “Bezos and the WaPo” observations.
Your point was displayed in the WaPo Editorial Board’s post-Trump/Putin meeting entry, striking me mostly as an unskilled attempt at Apologia. Its contrast with the factual article Marcy linked to is evidence of what must be a great deal of cognitive dissonance in that building—the hed/dek and opening/ closing give a feel for it:
A comparison of that to Marcy’s post-meeting analysis posted the same day is…enlightening:
https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/08/16/steamrolled-vladimir-putin-shares-an-existential-secret-with-trump-and-you-just-saw-the-result/
Trump arrived in Alaska with “a clear goal,” says the NYT: to extract a cease fire in Ukraine from Putin?
LOL. Is that a description that’s ever accurately described Donald Trump? In any event, confronted with the reality of Putin, Trump abandoned that goal like a raw oyster left out all day in July.
Had Trump or his staff done any homework, they would have realized there’s no process Trump or Putin would find acceptable that would achieve that goal.
“Dim Philby” is precious.
It has that hapless, piquant flavor of an agent so inept, he becomes a double agent without knowing it, while dissing the subject, who, being so ignorant, doesn’t get the reference or that he’s being made fun of
Perhaps many more folks would consider joining a few of us who have recently begun to actively (daily) use the NYT ‘comments’ section not to espouse a view on the incident or issue covered in an article but to instead submit pithy comments focused on the particular article’s editorial elements — such as noting the disservice to readers when an individual piece uses the tired red/blue framing as well as the close-to-parody normalizing obfuscation that ends up conveying something wildly detached from what has actually taken place.
Even if nothing happens, it is a win for Zelenskyy because he and the European leaders will have learned how to handle Trump on somewhat even ground with Putin and the sanctions are biting Putin. Ironically, of all the tariffs Trump’s imposing unilaterally, the ones threatened against Russian oil importers are the ones most likely to stand up in court: short-term, based on emergent circumstances, and targeted against specific actions against national interest.
It’s just gross that the incompetent orange pig has inserted himself into this war as “deal maker.” Who died and made him “deal maker?” Just what Ukraine needs – a C-grade business student with six business bankruptcies and the intelligence of an earthworm, making “deals” on their behalf.
Minor quibble: Trump’s kinda putty-colored these days.
The EU leaders all said on camera they want the war to end. Unless I missed it, no leader at the mutual flattery fest yesterday stepped up and advocated for an escalation to defeat Russia. Too bad.
What you didn’t see happen yesterday is that stepping up to defeat Putin is the fallback position, when diplomacy doesn’t work. It was on everyone’s mind or they wouldn’t have been there. Except for Trump, that is.
Of course continued war is a possibility, and at least as likely as some negotiated peace deal. If negotiations fall apart, expect the EU to dramatically ramp up their support, which could include their troops on the ground.
That last bit is far fetched, at least without a clear Russian aggression to, say, one of the Baltic states or Finland. Just the breakdown of negotiations with UKN will not trigger such a move on NATO’s part because tactical nukes would then be fully on the table and all bets would be off, everywhere and all at once.
I found it interesting that Finland’s Stubb talked about his country dealing with “Russia” in WWII. He didn’t use “the Soviet Union,” IOW. That was greatly significant, imo, and it was ironically made historically appropriate for him to say by the display of Lavrov’s CCCP summit-sweater last week. As I alluded in another thread, that stunt was an explicit signal that Russia is in the process of trying to reconstitute that spectacular failure. Also in that comment, I said that the CCCP sweater may have had very much to do with the speed and size of the EU/NATO negotiation-crashing they pulled off yesterday.
We should start calling Russia “USSR 0.2”
They do want the war to end. Everybody does, except Vlad, poison dwarf of the Kremlin Bunker. And they do now realise the stakes at play. Macron, for example, is long over the many ‘agonised’ pleadings on the phone. He now calls Russia the “hungry troll at the gates who has to keep on eating to survive”.
The visiting European leaders are all democratic politicians, though, and have to deal with a public and media that in the main, unlike themselves, has not yet properly awoken to harsh realities. Not helped by the barrage of insidious Russian propaganda and funding of disruptor parties of both ultra-right and ultra-left. But changes are already afoot quietly in the background. German funding of arms production both at home and in Ukraine has soared since that weak loser Scholz was shown the door, for example.
In the longer term, Europe will fund its own armaments and stop “buying American”. It will have to. It can no longer afford to depend on fragile US elections.
The EU should have increased their defense spending years ago. Better late than never. Russia will remains perennial threat to European nations so a strong EU military will help dissuade Putin or the next Russian despot from doing something stupid.
Exactly. Russia is the perennial threat to European nations. Nobody wants to conquer Putin’s craphole country.
The presence of this united front of leaders of European Democracy means this: Trump Regime is an Ally In Name only.
Trump is no longer treated as an ally, he is no longer treated as a reliable friend, there is no presumption of regularity.
He is treated as wholly fickle, unreliable , manipulative untrustworthy and untruthful.
The Europeans have bonded by agreeing on that, and by agreeing on a collective strategy to deal with him.
He is to be manipulated with ostentatious displays of flattery the better to serve the collective joint interests of Europe and NATO for whom these leaders are the guardians. They will not deal with him Individually or separately, unless it is absolutely unavoidable, because he is a shit head. And they will always brief each other completely about all dealings with him.
Your mistake, if I may say so, is to assume this event was about the meeting of minds.
This meeting was part of a diplomatic war of position and manoeuvre, being fought alongside the ground war in Ukraine; and Trump is part of the terrain of battle, a treacherous unreliable piece on the board in the diplomatic war between Democracy and Putin.
Trump is a disaster. One cannot help but wonder how things would be different now if Biden had been given a second term, and the chance to continue the path of America’s support (albeit probably too measured) for Ukraine and push back on Russia. Why bring this up now though….
Because the war could very well continue for years and into the 2028 election. And if it does, who do we, and the world, want in the Oval Office who will support the rule of law and human rights for everyone, especially those in dire need such at the Ukrainians. The right answer is always the Democrat on the ballot.
“Witkoff (whom Michael Weiss has dubbed “Dim Philby”)”
Ouch!!
Amicus12 you recommended Jason Jay Smart who posts about Ukraine on YouTube. His background is a PhD in Russian history, and was honored to be banned 4 life from Russia some years ago. He is now a correspondent with the Kyiv Press.
His latest post “Russia’s War Machine On Empty” is linked below.
https://youtu.be/LyORoCfbWGc?si=06a7NOOOIQWnHE2x
Ukraine has been systematically been targeting Russian refineries, fuel storage, pipelines, rail lines as well as weapons production.
This is severely affecting the Russian economy as well as the ability of Putin to logistically support their war effort.
[Welcome back to emptywheel. Please use the SAME EMAIL ADDRESS and username each time you comment so that community members get to know you. You attempted to publish this comment using a different email address triggering auto-moderation. We don’t even ask for a working/valid email address, only that you use the same one each time you comment. Please check your browser’s cache and autofill; future comments may not publish if email address or username does not match. /~Rayne]
Raynr,
This email address has been pwned. That is why I changed it to the one I used in my post.
I could not figure out to contact you directly.
Help?
Okay, I will work on resolving this when I have a few minutes. You may find yourself in auto-moderation until it’s cleaned up. Thanks for letting me know.
Yesterday, Trump claimed to world leadters that he ended six wars since January 2025. Yet PolitiFact can’t seem to verify Trump’s claim as fact. (Quelle surprise)
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/aug/05/donald-trump/stopped-six-wars-ceasefires-iran-israel/
=======
What a vile conceited sociopath.
At least 1 of the 6 is the India-Pakistan dispute, which is not resolved but in a temporary cease-fire. Those lucky bastards, a cease-fire for me but not for thee.
Good catch! I’m hard-pressed to think of a more malign influence on the world stage, outside of Putin and Netanyahu. The attacks on and killing of Ukrainian civilians has increased rapidly since Convict-1 took the White House—sure would be nice if a reporter asked him about that. Not to mention the attacks on Gaza, which he somehow never mentions either.
Another of The Felon Guy’s Russia-loving isjits is causing problems:
https://apnews.com/article/trump-security-clearances-revoked-ad7f95a222ad9277452d2de995b70619
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/19/gabbard-security-clearance-00515195
Nearly 40 clearances, people who have experience and knowledge and can’t be allowed to use them.
A minor note: I think Finland’s President assumes that everyone knows what he means when he says, “The Winter War.” That was in 1939, against the USSR, while the USSR was momentarily freed from worrying about Germany due to the Molotov/Rippentrop Pact. Finland slaughtered the Soviet troops, but eventually lost territory as Soviet numbers ground them down. That resistance truly was heroic, and an apt parallel for Ukraine’s resistance.
In WWII, Finland sided with Germany against the USSR to try to reclaim territory lost in the Winter War. Siding with the Germans somewhat complicates the heroic narrative.
I doubt Russia wants to get into it with Finland. Regarding the greater EU, I think the major result of the World Wars was the establishment of the fundamental enmity between Germany and Russia. Russia probably doesn’t want to poke that nest either.