Without a Doubt, Worse than Nixon
[NB: check the byline, thanks. /~Rayne]
On March 18, 1969, the U.S. military launched a secret program authorized by then-president Richard Nixon. Code named Operation Menu, the U.S. bombed targets in Cambodia until May 26, 1970.
The program was never authorized by Congress; information about the bombings were withheld from both Congress and the American public.
It was a gross abuse of executive power and the basis for drafting an Article of Impeachment against Nixon. The article did not receive adequate support in Congress because a number of members of Congress felt they had not done enough to restrain Nixon with regard to the Vietnam War, and public opinion had not yet shifted firmly against Nixon because of the Watergate scandal.
Three of six Articles of Impeachment did receive approval, however; the unauthorized bombing of Cambodia emphasized the abuses of power delineated in the approved articles.
Fortunately for Nixon, Republican members of Congress took him aside and told him they had the votes to impeach and remove him if he didn’t resign. Nixon resigned on August 9, 1974, avoiding hearings and heightened scrutiny of his abuses of his office.
Donald Trump authorized the bombing of Iran. His secretary of defense did not restrain him by requiring an Authorization for Use of Military Force. Neither of them made much effort to keep the mission secret as it launched Saturday as Trump posted about it to his personal Truth Social account.
Congress was not informed of the operation in order to debate an AUMF. Congress received testimony from Trump’s director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on March 25 in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee, in which she said,
… The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. The IC continues to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.
In the past year, we have seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus. Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons. …
There were exchanges with the media and public between the administration about Gabbard’s statement regarding the enriched uranium stockpile. If the status of that stockpile had changed with a firm move toward arming a weapon occurred, there has been no effort to communicate that with the Senate Intelligence or Armed Services Committees.
The American public was lied to by Trump who announced this past Thursday, “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”
Trump waffled publicly about U.S. military action against Iran, saying, ““You don’t know that I’m going to even do it,” Trump told one reporter. “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do. … “ I have ideas as to what to do, but I haven’t made a final [call] … I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know?”
Trump failed to request approval from Congress before making that final call some time between Thursday and Saturday.
It’s possible the call had already been made and Trump’s apparent indecision was a head fake. An analyst with Haaretz seemed to think this was a possible strategy. EDIT: The Atlantic published an article at 12:29 a.m. ET Sunday in which they reported Trump had already decided to bomb Iran on Wednesday, before his public statement about a two-week window of decision.
Head fake or no, Trump violated the Constitution’s Article I, Section 8 which grants Congress the power to declare war. It is not a power granted to the executive who “shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed” under Article II, Section 3.
Trump has already repeatedly failed under the Take Care clause. This first strike against Iran conducted without Congressional approval should be a road too far.
The blowback from this may be enormous, beginning with global economic effects due to instability in the fossil fuels market and may include terrorist or overt military strikes against U.S. targets, perhaps by way of surrogate networks Gabbard also testified about on March 25.
Trump is without a doubt worse than Nixon. He should be impeached — again, yes — and this time removed from office.
Iran’s nuclear program is now mostly underground. Enrichment and any reprocessing facilities are difficult to inhibit. Any strikes would have done significant damage but Iran still would have enough fissile material for some warheads and possibly some launch vehicles. Both Israel and the U.S. are not considering how easy it would be for Iran to mine and close the Straits of Hormuz, a shallow and narrow causeway for Saudi (and other) oil. U.S. forces in Bahrain would be immovable. Iran has its own domestic issues that are now able to be blamed on “The Great Satan”, further strengthening existing theocratic rule. These are the kind of secondary effects that the National Security Council and the State Department analyze. But the Orange Turd knows all and doesn’t need any advice.
Now that the Orange Idiot has taken Israel’s bait, I expect that Iran will dump mines in the Straits. Oil and fuel prices will go up. Well done Mr. President.
I’m not sure that he took Israel’s bait as much as he took Huckabee’s bait.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2025-06-18/ty-article/.highlight/in-the-israel-iran-war-huckabee-wants-trump-to-follow-scripture-over-strategy/00000197-832b-d995-af9f-877f9b8c0000
“It’s the theocracy, stupid”
According to Kulinsky on Thursday, The Guardian reported that Trump was doing it in the weekend so as not to freak out the markets during the week.
Of course he could have done it on Thursday as US markets were closed because of Juneteenth which he refused to acknowledge.
The Peace Prize winner as he terrorizes inside and outside the country.
That’s bullshit. This is his typical pump-and-dump — he’s played this same pattern time and again since December 2016 when he fucked with the Boeing contract for Air Force 1. All the effort is intended to maximize the opportunity to those with inside information by market open on Monday.
Whoever had inside info is counting on the markets to freak out Monday morning.
But it’s bigger than just Monday morning and I don’t think Trump or his American insiders grok this. I’ll write about it next.
I noted some knock-on effects in the post before this one. It also means the markets have had time to think about it, which IMHO will make their panic more intense. I still think Vlad was also involved in this given how bad the Russian economy is due to its war waste and its dependency on the fossil fuel market on the cui bono principle.
Harry Shearer writes “Question now for Iran re: their remaining military assets: use ‘em or lose ‘em.”
https://bsky.app/profile/harryshearer.bsky.social/post/3ls5yiqujr22p
Excellent post, Rayne! Irrespective of the rashness and irresponsibility of these bombings by Trump, this is his boldest dictatorial move yet. He is flipping the biggest of his stubby fingers at Congress by doing this, saying that he and Whiskey Pete can do any damn thing they want with the awesome capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces and no one can do a thing. Craven. The fissile material had reportedly been moved out of Fordow long ago. Expect oil and natural gas prices to go up considerably. Alliances against the United States are now being formed as a lead up to WWIII. This lunatic must be stopped.
Not just Congress. This feels like yet another Fuck You to the American people because we have the audacity to tell him he’s full of shit. We made fun of his birthday parade. We had No Kings protests that were better attended than his parade.
Trump ran on bringing peace to the Middle East and no new wars. This is a campaign “promise” that the people who voted for him say is one of the reasons they voted for him. We’ll see if the usual low information voters fall for the spin.
There was an interesting poll done in Canada about opinions of Trump where IIRC the Faux ‘news’ crowd favored Convict-1 / Krasnov / TACO at a 72% clip but informed Canadians went at 1%, not a typo.
It’s the information.
“The fissile material had reportedly been moved out of Fordow long ago.”
Citation for this? I am not finding reference to removal on iranwatch, isisonline or nti, according to which the IAEA reported in March 2023 that it had discovered uranium enriched to 83.7% purity at this plant.
I doubt they did, either because I’m also fairly certain that the important parts of that facility are well below the advertised 60 meter penetration depth of the MOP. Not just the materials, but the centrifuges (for UF6 separation) as well.
I remember reading something about the movement/storage of fissile material away from Fordow, but it was a week or so ago, I think on JustSecurity. Can’t recollect the name of the article or author because so much is being published so quickly. Hard to keep up.
I think it was an article discussing possible Israeli strategies for taking out Fordow, including destroying the power supply to the site, which might fritz the centrifuges?
Last week I listened to an interview on our local public radio station where a man was interviewed about Iran and their nuclear knowledge and enriched uranium. The man being interviewed said he thought that Iran, in anticipation of their known sites being bombed, would have moved everything to make nukes to a truly secret location by now. I missed the very beginning of the interview and didn’t get his name but here is a link to our NPR station on the subject— https://laist.com/news/israel-and-us-intelligence-differ-on-status-of-irans-nuclear-program-whos-right
NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/world/middleeast/fordo-iran-nuclear-bomb-satellite.html is reporting that MAXAR satellite imagery shows that 3 days before the bombing of Fordow 16 trucks were lined up at what was identified as an entrance to the facility and it looked as if things were being removed from the facility.
Makes you wonder what Iran knew. And how.
“Trump is without a doubt worse than Nixon.”
Yes, but TACO Krasnov has a base that wants red meat – all the time. Nixon lacked that at scale and there were adults in the room. The Orange Toddler plays to his base and who, exactly is making calls to directly insert the US into a foreign war? I became aware of this bombing about 8:40 PM EST last night and knew there would be worse news to come.
Elton & Bernie claimed in the early 70’s that ‘Madman Across The Water’ was just a random title…
This bombing is troubling on so many levels, for me it reeks of a saying I picked up years ago and continue to share with young people:
‘Between impulse and action there is a thought process.’
It has everything to do with that space between stimulus and response. It rests on deliberative thinking and choosing the correct action instead of reacting. How carefully has this been thought through by the mob in charge of the White House and indeed the Pentagon? Unless the Iranian infrastructure is so crippled that it cannot respond we are in for a rough(er?) next few years.
Cyber, Strait of Hormuz, dirty-bomb and economic tanking attacks immediately come to mind; who knows where the retaliatory strikes will occur or what form they will take? Unless of course it is more dick-wagging to distract from the possibility of more NG troops being deployed on US soil – but in that case see the above statement regarding that space between impulse and action.
And aren’t the rethugs going to LA for their convention? Odd choice for a ‘city in flames’ that required domestic urban pacification.
Far better minds here understand the calculus of this bombing action, but I see nothing more than another quid pro quo with Bibi Fuckingyahoo – we help bomb that which he cannot reach and oh, by the way – here is the Gaza strip to develop? A touch cynical I know but look at the mob mentality running our country right now.
“TACO Krasnov has a base that wants red meat”
You need to slow your roll and check polling on military action against Iran. I’m not going to spoon feed you.
The Sunday shows will certainly be interesting. For example, Israel’s ambassador will be on CBS, but to the polling point MAGA will twist to the preferred wind so we need to mind what Rupert’s world does.
As for Convict-1 / Krasnov / TACO, he has always wanted to be seen as a war hero so as soon as the idea was being floated I cynically knew this operation was going to happen. Remember the ‘I always wanted one of these’ comment when some vet gave him their Purple Heart. Some reporter should find that guy and see if he’s still OK with it.
I’m enraged with the Wednesday decision and Thursday denial. Time to get Leavitt her pink dress to match the DPRK flack.
Oh, I think veterans who found their aid and services cut by DOGE will be less likely to throw in with 34 (as in 34 counts of business fraud).
Front line guys like me that actually sailed those waters were never Convict-1 / Krasnov / TACO fans unless they were bucking for promotions or a flag gig. We’d be the first guys paying the price for his vanity war. REMFs on the other hand are very gung-ho.
Opening the gates of hell. At what point do a few of Pakistan’s nukes fall off the back of the truck (despite the sectarian differences)?
But there will never be an impeachment. Just ask Lisa Murkowski – GOP members are more afraid of their MAGA constituents than they are of the history books.
This may be a subject on which they part ways, if the constituents are against US getting forced into another Middle East war.
MAGAs will follow Rupert’s lead. Otherwise it’s jingoistic sloganeering. Even if MAGAs are 30% of the general population they’re 60-70% of GOP primary voters, thus the terror because the MAGAs do turn out if inspired / told to do so.
Uh-huh. That’s why they ran the oh-so-flattering Miller profile, to enhance the MAGAs perspective of the Trump regime.
Some of the Dems are cheering this move, also.
Apparently they don’t care that he violated several laws in doing this.
Name them. Fetterman I’ve seen — the man is off his nut.
The three names I saw were him, Schumer, and Jeffries.
Schumer and Jeffries should know better.
Schumer I half expected. Jeffries doesn’t know when to keep his mouth shut. They both need a kick in the ass.
My congresscritter’s statement is here:
https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congressman-brad-sherman-statement-us-strike-against-irans-nuclear
He backs Israel’s actions without thinking.
If he were my congresscritter I’d be asking him why he’s refused to do his job and allowed the largest military in the world to be Netanyahu’s chew toy.
Was it a head fake or indecision? I don’t think it is possible to know what is in his adeled brain.
Zinsky 123: “Alliances against the United States are now being formed as a lead up to WWIII. This lunatic must be stopped.”
I woke up at 3:am wondering if we have become a rogue nation with an unhinged, unpredictable madman at the helm. Why did he demand unconditional surrender and urge evacuation of Tehran? My imagination runs to extreme possibilities.
Reply
Congress must address this attack in a formal manner – either by retroactively approving it and setting forth ground rules or condemning it and prohibiting future action. Failure to do so will confirm that the Republicans are co-conspirators in the dismantling of the Constitution.
It will be interesting to see if the Trump Doctrine includes taking out other countries’ developing nuclear capabilities, like N. Korea.
It’s unlikely he’d go after North Korea because Kim has made it look like he’s kissed Trump’s ass and they’re no threat to Netanyahu’s power nor to Putin’s. You have to wonder if Trump has gotten vig from Kim since 2017.
I threw in N. Korea as a way of pointing out that Trump’s justification was more about Iran than the principle of destroying the nuclear capabilities of bellicose nations.
I’m waiting to see the reactions of the Gulf States, Russia, and China. This may have been a military intervention that was greenlighted through diplomatic back channels.
PS In looking at the video on Trump’s announcement, his left eye seems a little wiggy.
The more obvious example of bellicose nations with nuclear capability is the one we’ve allowed to direct our military strike this weekend.
For how bad Nixon was at least he had some shame. I think Trump considers impeachment an honor.
I’m confused; is this Biden’s fault or did God tell him to do it?
His “We love you, God” at the end was truly bizarre and disturbing.
If Trump was in a bar and said that god shit, the person next to him would say, “Give me your keys. You’re not driving.”
That “We love God” confirmed for me a couple things. First, he’s been huddling with Mike Huckabee–along with Bibi and Christian nationalist Hegseth–and the Apocalypse/Armageddon NOW crowd has roped him into some phone prayers.
Second, like so many old sinners, Trump sees death a-comin’ and he is sorely afeard. I’ve seen it in my own kin. The exhortations to God start bubbling up the closer they hear time’s winged chariot pulling in to their gate. It makes stops at the White House too.
He doesn’t look well in that video.
I seriously doubt he believes in God. Christianity is just a prop for him to get votes and cash. I think it’s a message to his Christian nationalists that we are all Christians, not Muslims (Allah) and that he’s doing God’s will.
Trump grew up on Norman Vincent Peale: “The power of positive thinking.” He doesn’t naturally believe in God, but in recent years he’s been convinced that God believes in him.
True believers like Huckabee can really get under the skin of someone as desperately fearful as Trump, especially when the fearful have reason to doubt their own immortality. Happens to all of us eventually.
They convinced him years ago – remember their “laying on of hands” IN THE OVAL OFFICE?
That’s pretty much how I see it too, Ginevra. More than anything else, he’s delivering on his Retribution campaign promise (as Jenny also mentions below.)
That overrides any other promise, regardless for whom it may be intended, primarily because it is consistent with his narcissism. And he does have good reason to be especially angry with Iran because of the assassination contract attempt and the phone hacking of his staff and allies.
If he can retrocon it with an assist from theocrats, all the better. Plus there is also the alluring business prospect of real estate development in Gaza. And, like you say, I’ve seen nasty people come to that foxhole moment when they think claiming religion will cleanse all their wrongdoing.
Absolutely. Trump’s thinking some God talk now will get him into heaven. I’ve seen it happen with my kin too. And possibly too, in addition to getting into heaven, he maybe thinking that while the secular world will not remember him fondly, he can get the Christianist world to enshrine him as one of their gods forever.
One thing that has always concerned me about the Dominionist evangelicals is that they firmly believe the end times are coming soon and John’s Revelations are the guide. That’s one reason they love Convict-1 / Krasnov / TACO because he shows all of the marks of the Beast that is prophesized in Revelations. That means the rapture is at hand and they will be put in heaven (so they think, they might want to re-read Matthew) so why not give the process a push?
So Trump is adopting the “rapture” rap? Our President is like the softest of pillows, he bears the impression of the last asshole that sat on him.
“When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross.”
—Sinclair Lewis.
A Christian Nationalist, Pete Hegseth has “Deus Vult” (“God wills it”) and the crusader’s cross tattooed on his body. He wears suit jackets lined with representations of the American flag. We knew this before he was confirmed (thank you Joni Ernst). Is anyone surprised by what road “We the people” are on and where it may take us?
I love that stars-n-stripes pocket square. Is Hegseth about to wipe his nose on the American flag?
Presumably they used big conventional munitions, not tactical nukes. Is that pinned down, or not? Israel presumably has its own tactical nukes, and could have gone that route, itself.
I think we would have heard already if there were nukes used as there have certainly been parties monitoring radiation signatures over key locations looking for signs Iran had moved from enrichment to arming warheads.
Conventional, not nuclear, as Rayne says. Probably a GBU-57A/B MOP. There is a Wikipedia article for it, and other articles on similar weapons going back to WW 2.
Fox already saying he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.
At the very least he deserves a Pulitzer Prize for that statement he gave last night.
For short fiction, I presume.
Pakistan has already nominated him.
The Retribution Regime for corrupted cruel criminals continue to spread hate and violence.
“Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated. Many presidents have dreamed of delivering the final blow to Iran’s nuclear program, and none could until President Trump. The operation President Trump planned was bold and it was brilliant showing the world that American deterrence is back. When this president speaks the world should listen.”
Hegseth, DoD Press Conference, June 22, 2025
“The operation President Trump planned…”
What a sense of humor!
“No. We’re not at war with Iran. We’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program.”
“We do not want war with Iran. We actually want peace.”
JD Vance, NBC, June 22, 2025
“My wife and I sleep in separate rooms. We take separate vacations. We’re doing everything we can to keep our marriage together.”
–Rodney Dangerfield
Vance is lying. You don’t bomb a foreign country for stuff like that.
War is Peace! Slavery is Freedom! JD Vance knows he’s spouting Big Brother’s bullshit. Even a Yale-trained lawyer knows that it’s impossible to launch a shooting war against “assets” every country considers to be of prime interest to their national security and not the country they belong to.
If Russia were to bomb Alaskan petroleum reserves, to make them unrecoverable, would Vance regard that as a war against American petroleum or the US?
Vance is using a grossly facetious argument to hang the soundbite on that he really wants out there: we’re not at war and we didn’t launch one. We want peace. If we have a war, it’s Iran’s fault. Much of his base already believes that.
responding to: EOH at 12:50 pm:
Iran MADE them do it.
Ugh. DARVO, geopolitical edition.
Trump just returned from a trip to the middle east; I wonder how many pieces of luggage he took with him, how many extras he brought back, and how much crypto does one suitcase hold?
Thanks for this.
And…
“The Atlantic published an article at 12:29 p.m. ET”
Atlantic timestamp is Junes 22, 2025, 12:29 AM ET
Thanks, I’ll fix that now. I’m afraid I was running on fumes when I published this post after 1:30 a.m. LOL
Doesn’t the War Powers Act allow the president to commence military action for up to 60 days before requiring an AUMF from congress?
Isn’t that the loophole that Clinton used in bombing Iraq for four days, Obama bombing Libya, Reagan bombing Lebanon (or was it Libya too?), and invading Grenada?
Steve Herman:
https://bsky.app/profile/newsguy.bsky.social/post/3ls6x7eyiva2k
June 22, 2025 at 7:21 AM [TIMES are ET]
Here’s a screenshot of Iran Foreign Minister’s earlier statement:
https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3ls6a4xkmwc2z
June 22, 2025 at 12:28 AM
https://bsky.app/profile/leahmcelrath.bsky.social/post/3ls75exya4s2s
June 22, 2025 at 9:11 AM
So everything related to or dependent on fossil fuels will be whackdoodle when the market opens tomorrow morning.
Some people are going to make a killing off this bullshit and it won’t be us.
Once again, Trump takes an action with no understanding of any potential follow-on consequences. Bush II was considered by some to be an in-basket President…Trump is more of an Auto-Pen President (the fact that he might hold a pen in his hand and cause it to make markings on paper doesn’t make those actions any less “Auto-Pen”).
Energy companies have appeared to be a little cautious with regard to awards of more exploration and drilling permits due to both refining capacity and current prices. If Trump can get us deeper into U.S. military protection for freedom of navigation, will those companies see a long term opportunity, or will the uncertainty (uncertainty = risk) still be too great?
Deplorables then: We are sick of high gas prices! FJB!
Deplorables now: Paying higher gas prices is the least we can do! God bless President Trump!
Even if Iran doesn’t have a good ICMB model to use, the primary retaliation wouldn’t be against Israel but against general “Western” interests in the region. After Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Kurds are our primary allies that are not allies of Iran by proxy. Something dirty and nasty in Mosul or Kirkuk would be primary targets, to Russia’s benefit as well.
After Millennium Challenge 2002, I don’t think US carrier groups would move too close to Strait of Hormuz. Between the B-2s and using the Aegean Sea for carriers, I don’t think US forces get close enough for conventional retaliation.
I’d not rule out cyberattacks on US and Israeli infrastructure, with Russian backing or even using their exploits. The only question I would have is whether Putin would view it as an opportunity to use by proxy what he might not want to use openly, or whether he’d want to save it for more direct retaliation.
Putin isn’t going to step in. He’ll be perfectly happy with continued upheaval in the Middle East as it will increase the value of Russian oil and gas. Vlad can sit back and enjoy the summer sun from his dacha knowing his financial interests are being seen to by his useful idiots.
ADDER: I was going to save this for a post, don’t be surprised if you see it again. I’ve used it before.
Graph, history of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices (used as benchmark for global crude oil prices), 2010-2017 via MacroTrends.net.
At the time the JCPOA was implemented I calculated Putin had lost a trillion dollars in future profits from oil over a handful of years. That kind of money is adequate reason to fuck with elections and blow countries to smithereens.
I roll my eyes every time some media hack expresses cluelessness about Trump unilaterally exiting the JCPOA. Gee, I wonder why.
The opportunity-cost to Putin is letting China become more of a friend to Iran, though. China doesn’t need Russia as much as vice versa, but Russia’s only leverage is oil-based. Hence, Putin needs to stay somewhat in Iran’s good graces. And I can imagine CozyBear or a similar Russian group handing Iran the tools to shut down the Port of Houston’s power grid for 72 hours to jack prices up even more, knowing that Trump won’t believe his “BFF” would do that and would order Gabbard and Patel to bury any evidence any way possible.
That’s the uncertainty here: China getting Iranian oil cuts out Russia, so Russia has an incentive to help out Iran even if “neutrality” is to Russia’s immediate benefit.
Please expand this chart to view prices at, and then a few months after, Trump rescinded JCPOA. I generally view correlations of this type with doubt unless I see a bigger set of data. I have little understanding of the causes of oil price fluctuations, but I wonder what other events occurred in 2014 – 2017 which could have contributed to a lowered price.
Not personal. In the DoD, we are masters of selective data charting and I’ve learned to be skeptical of the “correlation = causation” argument.
You’re capable of doing that on your own — I even provided the source of the chart, and production levels by country are out there.
But without even making the effort you should already be plenty aware oil prices hovered near cost of production for years.
At the time I wasn’t taking into consideration the effects of the pandemic and Russia’s eventual aggression on Ukraine resulting in sanctions.
Rising This Week: Opposing Trump’s war Before Trump bombed Iran, large numbers of callers urged reps not to let it happen. All Rise News gets an exclusive look at the data. https://www.allrisenews.com/p/opposing-trump-war Adam Klasfeld Jun 22, 2025
headline at SFGate: US inserts itself into Israel’s war against Iran with strikes on nuclear sites
Someone got it right.
Reports are that there is little to no evidence of radiation around the three sites bombed in Iran by Trmp. Seems to indicate that any nuclear activity and materials there were moved before the bombs struck or was negligible in the first place.
Another war on false pretenses but, then, aren’t most of them?
A tad early to rely on reports saying there are no signs of radioactivity at any of the three bomb sites.
If true, that may indicate the materials were moved, which would seem to be hard to do. An alternative explanation would be that the fissile materials were below the level the bombs reached.
There would have been something detectable in the wind shortly after based on previous scenarios.
See: https://thebulletin.org/2020/08/radiation-detections-in-northern-europe-what-we-do-and-dont-know/
UPDATE – 1:28 PM ET –
Even if the material were half a mile underground?
This report in the Guardian makes a few disturbing points. Fourteen bunker busters reached their targets, a dozen were used at Fordow.
Iranians claim to have largely evacuated all three sites some time ago, No casualties have yet been reported.
If these sites have been potential targets for months, Shirley they were under near constant surveillance, which would mean the US should have known that.
So, months of planning, 125-odd aircraft, more than a dozen bunker busters, ships, at least one submarine, some thirty Tomahawk missiles, were all for what? A warning? To destroy essential equipment onsite that couldn’t be moved? Or was this a fuck-up?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/22/how-effective-was-the-us-attack-on-irans-nuclear-sites-a-visual-guide
Materials would’ve been moved by vehicles, and presumably, in the run-up to the attack, and probably as a routine matter, traffic in and out of the site would’ve been monitored. If there was really nothing there, there would’ve been no point, militarily, in expending scarce munitions on the targets. So I’m guessing there was something there to be bombed. Whether the penetrators could reach far enough in to do significant damage is another question. The high number used may suggest munitions fired into the same point in waves, each munition reaching farther inside.
Bunker buster reaches 200 feet deep vs. Fordow depth of 300 feet so there would have to be multiple hits to reach it. I trust his claim of total obliteration as much as I trust he won 2020 by a landslide. I guess “we’ll see what happens.”
Even a good shake may screw up a centrifuge.
To paraphrase the master evader, Donald Rumsfeld: “There are a lot of unknown unknowns.”
Iran shuts down the Straits of Hormuz – hurting China and Pacific nations in terms of trade and oil. Cutting off a supply of oil raises oil prices, which will bolster Russia’s flagging economy and cause inflation for us.
The Trump Doctrine of preemptive strikes because of less than imminent threats, will give Russia and China excuses to enlarge their spheres of influence by military means.
The Gulf States had been engaging in business negotiations with Iran. On the other hand, they were uncomfortable with Iran as a nuclear power. Any alliance between the Gulf States and Iran would be a threat to Israel.
Our naval presence in the region will provide targets, risking further military retaliatory strikes. Does anyone think Trump and his team have gamed this out?
There are a lot of people in and connected to the DC area who have been gaming this out for years, adapting their models to emerging events. But do we think that anyone close to the White House listens to anything that is contrary to Trump’s one-transaction-at-a-time approach?
Violation of the War Powers Act is a crime. 46 USC § 606(h). https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/606
The Constitution puts the issue in Congress’ hands, so it cannot be a core executive power.
Therefore, Trump v. US is not applicable and Trump can be prosecuted for this after his term is over. Of course this is before the Six SCOTUS rogues figure out how to protect Trump.x
Bingo.
I agree with the analysis but I would expect an ‘exigent circumstance’ argument even though the DNI said there is none to be made. It will be enough for the SCOTUS Six and other courts given how they’ve rolled over on the CA National Guard being called out for a bogus emergency or the Kennedy ruling that flatly ignored the facts of the case.
It is speculative as to whether Iran removed fissile or other radiological material from the Iranian nuclear facilities. Open-source satellite imagery shows what appears to be construction vehicles/equipment on premises, but also transport vehicles. Undoubtedly, intelligence collection by Israel and the U.S. regarding any movements would be more granular and more accurate, but what if Iran decided to shift some of their efforts from the “N” in CBRN to the “R” in CBRN?
This is not an easy task. Earlier this century I was engaged in discussion with a physicist friend regarding the practicality of methods for introducing and dispersing radiological materials into urban environments. The conclusion was that it could be done in a number of ways, some more likely to succeed than others. A successful deployment would have significant economic and societal impacts, and would suck up a lot of resources for a long period of time. This, BTW, was work related – separately for both of us.
I have no doubt they addressed the vulnerabilities between Bibi’s actions and the Diego Garcia prepositioning of B2s. The Iranians are not stupid and they are aware of what Convict-1 / Krasnov / TACO would do if Bibi asked him to. Then again, it was remarkable how many top leaders were still in their own houses for Mossad to find on the first day.
Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) has a good analysis over at The Bulwark, he acknowledges many of my qualms about this possible/likely illegal bombing and the anticipated response. Congress has a duty and I damn well hope enough R’s grow a spine:
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/we-should-already-be-planning-for-iran-response-strike-bombing-nuclear-trump
Thank you, Rayne, for your gentle admonishment earlier.
Time will tell.