Eight Senate Dems Caved, and Caved Too Early
I agree with those who complain that the eight Democrats who voted for a deal to reopen the government caved, and they caved too early. Catherine Cortez Masto, Dick Durbin, John Fetterman, Maggie Hassan, Angus King, Tim Kaine, Jackie Rosen, and Jeanne Shaheen voted for cloture (Shaheen was the leader of the capitulating Democrats).
Jon Ossoff (who is the most vulnerable incumbent in next year’s election) and Chuck Schumer did not.
Start with the timing part. The shutdown was just entering a phase where two things were beginning to cause a lot more pain: airport slowdowns and food stamp cuts.
On the flights, Katie Porter had just cornered Sean Duffy on letting private jets fly while commercial flights were being canceled. He claimed that he had not done that. But at least per WSJ, he has now imposed flight restrictions for private flights.
The Federal Aviation Administration is slated to limit business jets and other private flights to some of the country’s largest airports to ease strains on air-traffic personnel during the government shutdown.
The restrictions are due to begin Monday and will affect private jet flights at a dozen airports, including Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver and Chicago’s O’Hare, according to the National Business Aviation Association trade group.
The FAA’s plan effectively halts business aviation operations at those airports, the trade group said.
“Safety is the cornerstone of business aviation, and NBAA is fully committed to ensuring the safety of the NAS,” Ed Bolen, the trade group’s chief executive, said in a statement Sunday. He added that the group will ensure that business aviation operators understand the restrictions and their implications.
The FAA didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
U.S. transportation officials have said that efforts to curb air traffic are designed to alleviate workload on controllers who are increasingly stressed and fatigued after going weeks without pay. Controllers are calling in sick while working second jobs, prompting sharp reductions in air travel with fewer FAA employees to oversee air traffic.
One way or another Porter’s success at magnifying this issue would have shifted (and will, if the deal takes a week to pass, as is predicted) the responsibility for this pain solidly onto Trump. Either Trump’s rich buddies will be prioritized, which will be a pitchfork moment. Or they won’t, which will create the kind of political pressure that works on Trump.
All that said, Duffy says it’ll be some time before flights are back to normal; the shutdown led to increased Air Traffic Controller retirements, so this problem will linger even if government reopens.
Then there’s the matter of SNAP. Trump and courts gave conflicting instructions over the last two weeks about what will happen to SNAP funding for November. It would be provided, then only half would, two judges ruled it had to be delivered, but then Trump appealed, ultimately to the Supreme Court (see Steve Vladeck for an explanation of what Ketanji Brown Jackson was likely thinking when she grated Trump a stay to allow that appeal).
SNAP payments went out to some Dem states — including at least Oregon and Wisconsin — and those states got them out the door right away.
I think far too many people complaining about the cave aren’t considering how SNAP funding offsets the healthcare cave. Millions of Americans were and are going to really struggle to feed their families.
But with a few more days, the fact that Trump chose to do — the fact that Trump is bullying states for sending out food stamp benefits that Trump’s own administration sent out — that would have become more clear.
If you were going to cave, you should have waited a week for all this to play out.
But cave they did.
On the primary asks for this shutdown — health insurance subsidies — they got nothing that hasn’t been on the table for weeks, an agreed on vote at a 60-vote margin, which will fail.
That said, several details about the cave provide means for Dems to regain some leverage about how this cave happened.
If John Thune honors his end of the deal, this cave does add a minibus appropriation funding Ag, DOD, and Congress. The Ag bill fully funds SNAP. Congressional funding restores all the reductions in force that Russ Vought unlawfully imposed during this shutdown. It also fully funds GAO. It does not, however, reverse Vought’s rescissions, thereby effectively ceding the power of the purse to Vought and inviting him to do more of it.
Some of those details — the fully funded SNAP and GAO — are things House Republicans hate. So there’s a non-zero chance they’ll kill the CR based on the inclusion of the minibus, in which case the eight Dems’ attempt to cave will have failed and the onus for the shutdown would shift even more onto the House Republicans than it currently is.
Then there’s the question of ACA subsidies. One thing the eight capitulators did do with the timing of their cave was wait until after all ACA subsidy recipients got their new rates, which will double costs, that start in January. The promised unsuccessful vote for ACA subsidies will happen between those rate hikes and the imposition of those new rates in January. While the vote for ACA is virtually certain to fail, the timing of it will make it more clear to ACA recipients that Republicans are responsible for the pain — either in the form of giving up health insurance, or crippling price increases — they’ll be feeling in January.
And that will happen just before this CR expires at the end of January.
There’s a non-zero chance that the government will be back in shutdown then, though with a few of the hostages — most notably, 40 million SNAP recipients — now protected by these minibus appropriations.
And that will happen in the wake of one and possibly two more politically fraught developments.
When Mike Johnson brings back the House — after their two month paid vacation — to vote on this, he will presumably finally swear Adelita Grijalva in, meaning we’ll also finally see a vote on the Epstein files (which, rumor has it, are worse than we imagine).
It’s also likely that Trump will be dealing with the aftermath of the SCOTUS decision on his tariffs, which is likely to rule that Trump unlawfully and unilaterally taxed importers. The revenue from tariffs that John Sauer falsely argued weren’t about generating revenue has served as cover for the tax cuts right wingers gave billionaires last summer, and if they’re overturned it’ll make the fiscal recklessness of the Big Ugly Bill (also the source of the cut ACA subsidies) more apparent. Still worse for Trump, if he loses, he’ll be faced with the prospect of paying back around $200 billion in revenues raised, starting with the five named plaintiffs in the lawsuit, and then likely moving onto those who sued in advance of any SCOTUS decision. Last week, Neal Katyal suggested that maybe Congress could help Trump out of the problem he caused, which is laughable — but if he tried it, it would change leverage calculations around the next CR expiration in less than 60 days.
And that’s all before any crash in AI stocks, which some are predicting. That could cause a major financial catastrophe.
It’s hard to know if this is a smart move, but it’s definitely on its face a weak and cowardly one.
There is a good argument to reopen the Government and make the GOP own its refusal to negotiate at all on healthcare costs, and its decision to use food support as a bargaining chip. This is a key message to voters – give us the House in 2026 and we will put a stop to this.
On tariffs, assuming the Court strikes down the tariffs, Dems should be loudly blaming Trump for driving up the cost of living, and using this as Exhibit A of the Trump Criminal Presidency. The key feature of the Trump second term is corruption and lawlessness. It’s about time this became a drumbeat in Democratic messaging. Give us the House and we will put a stop to this.
I don’t know that it’s a weak and cowardly move as there are millions more affected by the shutdown than just the ACA recipients, some of whom are already bearing the brunt of this shutdown. I agree with Dr Wheeler’s take on it that maybe should’ve held out for another week…but this was always going to be about a Democrat capitulation, in some form or another.
I’ve already seen posts re: progressives are furious about moving forward, but, per Dr Wheeler’s take, I think the full brunt of the shutdown and the effects/causes are still in GOP sweaty hands.
As soon as the House gets back into session, Dems should hammer the GOP mercilessly re: Epstein files. If there’s any weight to those files, the shutdown and any Dem capitulation will be forgotten. Then work overtime on the mid-terms.
I don’t know that it’s a weak and cowardly move either. But I do know that it will be perceived that way.
Maybe it was a cave. But people need paychecks and food. The Dems can say they promised to negotiate and they did. Let’s see how the dust settles.
I have a hard time accepting the explanation for why the Dems caved. Josh Marshall is calling them “Team Cave”and I think that is appropriate.
I think there is a non-zero chance that Johnson (and Trump) think they have leverage and do not call the House back for a vote. Instead, Johnson will tell the Dems that they need to concede completely and bow and kiss his ring before Govt reopens.
Part of the reason is that Trump wants the other party to be humiliated but the reason is that Trump does not want the Epstein files to come out.
The longer this thing is prolonged, the better for Trump (I recall seeing something about another House representative opening to be filled with a member of the GOP that could nullify Adelita Grijala).
There’s a special election on 12/2 in TN that could cancel out any hope of a vote on the Epstein files.
Here’s a rundown of that SE’s primary results:
https://tennesseelookout.com/2025/11/10/turnout-was-down-75-in-middle-tn-u-s-house-special-election-particularly-in-gop-strongholds/
In this political environment, the startling fact that the Dem primary turnout, which put forward a genuinely progressive Ashtyn Behn, was withing striking distance of the self-styled “MAGA warrior” Matt Van Epps. Ms Behn would do well in these next few weeks to make “Release the Epstein Files” her mantra. In today’s environment, especially if Johnson refuses to allow the House to convene (his comment WRT the Dems caving over Thune’s “pinky-swear” to hold an ACA vote was “I didn’t promise anything in that deal’), Epstein is a GOP death-shroud. It should be employed as such, and this SE would be a good test case of it.
Oh, and Nashville is in that district. Could be interesting.
218 is 218; there’s no way to nullify Grijalva’s vote absent a newly vacant D seat or a (quite possible) “change of heart” from one of the few R votes.
The much more likely scenario, in my opinion, is the DOJ ignoring or slow-walking the resolution’s mandate, once passed.
Even likelier, imho, is that their efforts to chide, plead, and/or threaten some of their cohort will eventually pay off and Grijalva will no longer be a threat. It seems that many people are assuming that all of the Republican votes are a shoo-in.
The thing is, none of the senators saying they oppose this deal can really be trusted on that point. It is not an odd coincidence that only the retiring Democratic senators (or senators who might plausibly be retiring a few years from now) voted for it and no one else did. There was a deal in the caucus and votes were traded and now no one really knows where any of the Democratic senators stand. This deal is too clever by half.
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So you’re saying that trading Gary Peters (who is retiring and voted for cloture in March) for either Tim Kaine or Jackie Rosen, is about using retirees to protect people?
Did you bother to check the actual facts before you spouted off?
Durbin is Minority Whip. He is Schumer’s right-hand-man. His job is to ensure fellow party members vote according to official policy. But there he is.
“the timing of it will make it more clear to ACA recipients that Republicans are responsible for the pain”
… or that the Dems’ talk about `fighting fiercely’ for healthcare is all about fundraising and list building.
The cast of rotating villains will soon ride into the sunset, but be quickly replaced by fresher faces.
I see absolutely nothing good coming out of this, either politically or policywise.
Convict-1 wasted no time in demanding a clawback of SNAP benefit allocations to the states, which to me says that Thune was either lying to Shaheen, et al, ahead of his skis, or undermined by Vought, et al to get the Ds into the ‘bipartisan’ trap. Or all of these.
He started demanding that before this lot folded.
Which makes the cave even more stupid once Convict-1 tipped his hand. As Napoleon said, ‘don’t interrupt an enemy when he’s making a mistake’.
I am really curious to see how this plays out in the House. I have real doubts that Mike Johnson will be able to get 218 GOP votes for John Thune’s bill.
Oh, and there’s also the little matter of swearing in a certain new representative and that pesky discharge petition . . .
But the real kicker is Trump. Will *he* accept this — and not just sign the bill as passed, but agree to fund what Congress says to fund, at the level Congress says to fund it? He hasn’t been doing that since he took office again last January, so why should he start now?
We are nowhere near done with this mess.
I’ll agree about the downstream prospects but note that every one of those scenarios means the GOP owns the chaos completely. After all, the Ds ‘tried’. However IIRC the only bill Pharisee Speaker Mike wanted was the House version and Thune’s bill isn’t that. There are plenty of reasons for the House maniacs to say no. Convict-1 will pay lip service before letting Russell Vought loose anyway. All of these events are owned by the GOP.
The change of bills means Mike Johnson will have an excuse to not call the House back (after all it isn’t his bill but Thune’s) in order to avoid seating Grijalva. Let us remember the whole purpose for Convict-1 is to prevent release of the Epstein Files at any cost.
Will the courtier press report these upcoming events accurately or will it be bothsides reporting as usual?
Marcy reposted a comment from this informative THREAD by Daniel Schuman.
[I’ll post part of that THREAD here]:
https://bsky.app/profile/americalabs.org/post/3m5bqzsbz322v
November 10, 2025 at 8:45 AM
DEFANG VOUGHT!
At the end of the THREAD, Schuman links to his article:
What’s in the CR Deal for Congress? With a vote as early as tonight, we quickly ran the numbers https://firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/whats-in-the-cr-deal-for-congress Daniel Schuman Nov 09, 2025
GET OUT THE VOUGHT!
Also, it looks like Kevin Roberts has angered lots of folks at Heritage.
LOL! Good one, SL!
And re: ROBERTS…YES!
Never, never, believe the Republicans.
How many times does this have to happen?
The article about predicting the fall of AI stocks, is largely based around Michael Burry placing put options on Palantir and Nvidia. Burry being the guy from The Big Short who first recognized the house of cards investments.
The article then describes that Burry also has call options on Halliburton, expecting that stock to rise. The article was published November 4, close in proximity to the death of Dick Cheney. A small world.
They’re massively overvalued.
Democrats did what Democrats have been doing too often: conceding. Did this cowardly eight not see the election results of Tuesday, in the midst of the shutdown? Or did they decide to turn into pussies in hopes that some Trump voters might decide to grab them?
What a week! To go from the great wins on Tuesday to a capitulation on Sunday . . . I get the need to help those who are suffering; however, IMHO, there is no assurance that Convict1 will actually release or not claw back funding. This is, to me, another example of Ds not being willing or skillful at using power, coupled with Convict1 and MAGAs not caring who gets hurt in their exercise of power.
The coming midterms are the most significant opportunity to restrain Convict1, keep him from running again, and start on the road back to a decent government and country.
But, by November, voters will forget that the Ds fought for them, and Convict1 will issue a Trump Tariff Rebate check with his picture and signature. There will be enough relief to rural health systems and farmers to buy those votes. Convict1 will find some issues that can be used to stoke fear and hatred.
Let us work to have candidates who are as vibrant, relentless, and capable as those who won landslides last week.
Many hope a discharge petition will inflict a cost; well, I would be pleased to be wrong, but the Epstein files will likely be another Mueller event.
I keep harping on the fact that Bessent said on TV that the Treasury will only pay back half of the tariffs if payback is required. When? Who knows. That Bessent announced the US Treasury would default on payments was met with nothing. Nada, zilch, crickets. The foundation of the financial system is washing out.
The deficit exploded in October, despite the shutdown. Imagine that. Despite all that tariff revenue except corporate tax receipts are falling nearly as fast. The tsunami of Treasury issues since the Big Dump, $1.3Tn if I recall, has been funded by artificial liquidity ultimately funded by Fed Repos. A great system when it works.
The Fed is going to start QE again the question is if it will be forced to by market dislocations or if the abundance (of money/credit) boys take charge before that happens.
What is facing Democrats is so much larger than a piece of noxious legislation. They are confronted with a blitzkrieg of Republican misrule, corruption and autocratic ambitions. Holding up a CR to make that point was always going to be a bank shot at best. The adoption of specific demands around health care issues was an excellent strategic move that nonetheless was never going to see those demands met. It was the shrewd application of the only tool available to congressional Democrats, and they got as much out of it as anyone ever has. Eventual capitulation was inevitable because of the pain a shutdown would inflict on innocent people. Weak links were always part of the equation. The reasons individual senators will give for caving are bound to sound pathetic and craven in the absence of some strategic party message that would give them cover. Such a message was not possible without seeming to implicate the party in a cynical play for power at the expense of the people whose support they desperately need.
It remains to be seen, but it appears that the overall message conveyed was that nearly every Democrat went to the mat for the people on an issue that really matters and Republicans refused to even talk about it. If the media are not completely suborned or distracted, the cruelties of Republican policy activated by passage of the CR should be squarely in the spotlight in the coming months. That is a good result in a political environment with more future potential than present opportunity.
Speaking of caving, Cornell University agreed to pay Trump $60 million.
I like your analysis, Bags.