Santa’s Elves Just Got Fired

Remember the “good” jobs report last week? As Dean Baker explained, many of the new jobs were actually the “couriers” who delivered your holiday presents.

The sharp drop in the unemployment rate over the last four months (from 9.1 percent to 8.5 percent) is not consistent with the job growth reported in the establishment survey. The survey reported 200,000 jobs in December; however, this figure is skewed by the 42,200 job gain reported for couriers. There was a similar gain in this category reported for last December, which was completely reversed the next month. Clearly this is a problem of seasonal adjustment, not an issue of real job growth. Pulling out these jobs, the economy created 158,000 jobs in December, in line with expectations.

Pulling out the courier jobs, growth has averaged 145,000 per month over the last four months. This is somewhat better than the 90,000-100,000 a month needed to keep pace with the growth of the labor force, but certainly not rapid enough to explain a 0.6 percentage point drop in unemployment. At this pace, we would not get back to pre-recession levels of unemployment until 2027. [my emphasis]

Now Baker’s predicted reversal in those jobs has started to appear, with initial jobless claims up 24,000 this week.

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, raising the possibility that a greater-than-usual increase in temporary holiday hiring boosted December payrolls.

Jobless claims climbed by 24,000 to 399,000 in the week ended Jan. 7, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 46 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected 375,000. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those receiving extended payments decreased.

Hiring by package delivery companies and retailers during the holidays to meet demand for gifts may now be giving way to an increase in dismissals.

These words–“couriers” and “package delivery companies”–are very cold. What we’re really talking about are Santa’s Elves, the wondrous people who make your holidays magical, particularly given how they help you avoid crowded malls by allowing you to shop online. In all the cartoon Christmas specials, those elves spend the off-season making more toys for the next Christmas. Not so our “modern” economy. Now, we benefit from their services, enjoy our holidays, and then <<BAM!!>> the Elves are on the street again, looking for work.

Merry Christmas!

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6 Responses to Santa’s Elves Just Got Fired

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Emptywheel Twitterverse
bmaz The night the NCAA became indistinguishable from, if it wasn't already, craven self serving malignancy of NFL. Congrats NCAA you've arrived!
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bmaz RT @John_de_Vashon: As always the core @NCAA narative must prevail. #TheFixIsIn #NCAA MT @bmaz: Bullshit play by KY and crapass call by the…
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bmaz I HATE Notre Dame, and, yet, they got completely ripped off by the refereeing. What a #joke
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bmaz @Gaius_Publius @MasaccioEW @ChrisInParis ND got fucking ripped off on contact. What a crock of shit. You KNOW I do not say that lightly.
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bmaz What a crock of dung. If the roles had been reversed had been reversed, ND would have never gotten the cheesy calls KY did. #FOUL
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bmaz Bullshit play by KY and crapass call by the refs
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emptywheel @jhamby Also think Amber Alert site went down sometime today after alert per @RayneToday @eric_analytics @chockenberry @SwiftOnSecurity
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bmaz Just saying, some men I know may have more than the luck of the Irish. Craft beers for all!
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emptywheel @jhamby But it included license plate, was for 15 year old teal F250. Even in MI can't be many of those left @chockenberry @SwiftOnSecurity
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emptywheel @jhamby This MI one this morning was statewide too (or at least lower peninsula), I think, from MSP. @chockenberry @SwiftOnSecurity
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bmaz @Gaius_Publius @MasaccioEW @ChrisInParis Wisconsin is also a classy and easy team to root for.
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bmaz @Gaius_Publius @MasaccioEW @ChrisInParis Hey AZ was more than capable of winning that game. The did NOT. Hat's off to Badgers; they're good.
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