When Hegemons Backslide
Trump has been [cough] gunning for the US international order since long before he was inaugurated.
The reasons why are important. He has a zero sum game approach to everything, and so treats alliances and all soft power as rip-offs. That resentment, at the core of Trump’s personality, is one of many things Vladimir Putin exploited to make Trump hate his military alliances. And as the US legal system had the audacity to subject him to it, Trump developed a need to destroy rule of law. That he can restore his self-illusion of business prowess by extorting bribes on an industrial scale is just gravy.
And so he came into power with the intent of destroying several — but not all — prongs to US hegemony, the prongs that lowered the cost of sustaining America’s dominant role in the world even as China threatens it: US alliances, US soft power, and a claim to US exceptionalism.
He’s still got the unsurpassed military. America’s tech platforms remain the dominant communications network of the world and, with that, its attendant ease of spying. For the moment — but possibly only for the moment — the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, which permits the US to fund everything else and coerce compliance in more subtle ways.
But, partly out of psychological fragility, Trump has chosen to destroy several key tools that made exercising US power easier and cheaper. He has forgone hegemony in the search of dominance. Trump’s military parade failed to give him the psychological fulfillment he sought, and so Bibi Netanyahu was able to sell him on an illegal invasion of Iran that would fill that need.
Yesterday’s strike on Iran dealt at least the symbolic death blow to the Western world order put into place after World War II to prevent follow-on catastrophes. Trump already launched a structural attack on the institution that would hold him accountable alongside Putin and Bibi Netanyahu for war crimes; the NYT finally matched Quinn’s post on the attack on the ICC yesterday (using both the digital hegemony the US still maintains but also the financial hegemony is may piss away). Trump intends to do the same to much of the UN as well.
By refusing to alert Democratic lawmakers of the attack — by violating not just the War Powers Act (which has become a three decade habit) but also the National Security Act — Trump launched this war as an attack on democracy, both on the Democratic Party as the legitimate opposition but also on Congress as a coequal brach of power, as much as on Iran.
While I haven’t read it all, what I have read makes me think the academic and popular literature on democratic backsliding never considers for what happens when a significant power, much less a hegemon, backslides. Two models we’ve adopted to measure Trump’s rush to eliminate American democracy — Orbán’s Hungary and Putin’s Russia — both bear important lessons (not least because Orbán and Putin have both facilitated Trump’s return and instructed his policy approach). But both men exploited a moment of weakness in their country, whereas Trump is in the process of deliberately pissing away much of America’s strength to carry out his goals, many of which are personal glorification as much as successful authoritarianism.
Trump cares more about the feeling of domination than he does about success for anyone but himself and loyal allies, much less than the country as a whole. And that psychological craving for the feeling of domination is what Bibi played to — in the wake of Trump’s flaccid military parade and the contrasting joy of the No Kings protests — to get him to join a war of choice against Iran. Trump was manipulated to use dominance rather than hegemony against Iran in part because his other efforts to obtain full capitulation — from law firms, from Harvard, from California, from China — have failed.
Stephen Miller, too, seems to know how to trigger Trump’s psychological need for domination, even while Miller’s administrative ineptitude creates surface area for attack in the larger effort to pursue authoritarianism.
Partly as a result, that craving for domination has led Trump to fuck the US economy: with Miller’s gulag, with his own trade war, with his attacks on US scientific and medical dominance. And this is where the backsliding analysis misses, in my opinion.
We have no idea what will come from Trump’s stupid and illegal decision to join Bibi’s attack on Iran. This is not Iraq 2.0 for a bunch of reasons, starting with the fact that Bush and Cheney attempted to limit civilian casualties whereas Bibi, with Trump’s blessing, is already pursuing the annihilation of Palestinians, and so we must consider whether similar annihilation is in the works in Iran.
This is not Iraq 2.0 because, even though Bush 2 was unable to match the diplomatic commitment to an Iraq War that Bush 1 achieved, W was still able to persuade allies to join the effort. While it seems exceedingly likely that some European allies will join or at least tacitly sanction this invasion, they’ll do so knowing their relationship has become one of coercion. They’ll know that Trump will sell out any contribution like he and JD Vance and Pete Hegseth love to attack the Danes for their sacrifices in the Afghan war.
This is not Iraq 2.0 because, whereas Cheney used that war to expand and perfect US surveillance, Trump is largely ignoring external surveillance, relying instead on lies from Bibi, preparing instead to vastly expand its focus internally.
This is not Iraq 2.0 because during Iraq 1.0 the US was a largely uncontested hegemon, whereas Trump has not only destroyed the tools by which the US persuades rather than coerces cooperation, he has a psychological need to seek only coerced capitulation. Absent that — in the face of pushback on Ukraine, on his trade war, and on democracy itself — he became and becomes vulnerable to cooptation by people like Bibi. Trump left a G-7 that refused to capitulate to him and sprinted headlong into Bibi’s warm embrace.
We don’t know how Trump’s attack on Iran will affect efforts to combat his authoritarianism internally. He will definitely use it as a justification to increase crackdowns on dissent, but he’s already deploying emergencies to do that, and given the many ways Trump violated the law to launch this attack, it’s unclear how much more amenable courts will be to treat this one as real. Before the attack, key factions of his base — including true opponents of war, Russian useful idiots, unconstrained antisemites, and what few real libertarians are left in the US — spoke out against the operation. Many are already falling into line, but it’s unclear whether that will last if things go badly from here. And those outside Trump’s base and outside the Fox News bubble at least thus far oppose this intervention. Trump will be attempting to sell this war without laying any groundwork for it, even as the things that were making him increasingly unpopular — the ICE raids — will not go away or grow less visible.
But what we do know is the international order has just been dismantled and whatever advantages the US military and dragnet give it, Trump is limiting the value of those advantages by weakening the US economy and possibly US financial hegemony even as China will want to respond to this attack.
Attacking Iran will exacerbate the effect of Trump’s attacks on the US economy, domestically. And it will therefore increase China’s leverage over us — and increase the import of the leverage over rare metals in this confrontation. And that’s before China uses this opportunity to extend its own hegemony, which it was already doing.
At every stage, Trump and Miller have pursued things that an aspiring dictator in a declining state might do to stave off further decline. But those very same acts from a country with what had been the best economy in the world, currency hegemony, and unsurpassed scientific know-how have the opposite effect. They make the aspiring dictator weaker, first externally and then, as a result, internally.
Which is to say that Trump’s choice to swap global hegemony for attempted dominance may undermine his pursuit of dominance both at home and abroad.
Personal dominance instead of national hegemony. Sounds very much like one of Jared Diamond’s five factors of societal demise. But this is the first time it has happened to a global hegemon.
Strap in.
Fight back.
I’m buying a Sousaphone for protests and placarding Woody Guthries “This machine kills fascists” on it.
One of my favorite vids from No Kings was where a brass band drowned out the Proud Boys trying to incite conflict.
So I am very happy to hear about the Sousaphone.
a new fav video of mine is the Mariachi Band that set up below the Bounty Hunters’ hotel windows in SoCal and played through the night…joined by a raucous crowd.
(another hotel where there were reports of the Thugs trying to aggressively interrogate the workers there while staying in the rooms. ThugBros truly don’t understand what they’re inciting…)
That’s the moment that inspired me. Now I have to learn how to play it.
My 3 song repertoire: This land is your land, I am Woman and Wabash Cannonball.
Wabash is because we can steal the lyrics from Lee Greenwoods unctuous, “Proud to be An American” and weld the lyrics to the comical “Wabash Cannonball”.
I had the Hugel version of Belle Ciao in my earbuds during our No kings protest. Such a great song.
I saw that TN video and loved the band’s response. It reminded me of when Romaine Patterson and her group, Matthew Shepard Angels, held up huge angel wings at Matthew’s funeral to block out Westboro Baptist Church.
The TN band playing Belle Ciao made me want to learn the tuba, or any brass instrument for that matter.
Such a great way to drown out those hateful fools.
I know a lot of people say that peaceful protesting doesn’t work, but I can’t tell you how much hope it gave me to stand shoulder to shoulder with strangers & neighbors knowing that what is happening is not OK or normal. It also gets me going again. I have been really upset and had to sit out and observe for a bit. Now I’m ready to get back to it. Im not going to let my country get taken over by these fascists fools.
If you don’t know him already, check out Kirk Josephs, formerly of the Dirty Dozen Brass Band. He’s a monster Sousaphone player and one of the best improvisers out there. May he be an inspiration to you.
THANK YOU!
Thank you. I just added them to my Playlist.
I mentioned earlier up the thread, but my favorite version of Belle Ciao is Hugel’s dance version. I play it everyday. Love the upbeat tunes.
So you didn’t win a sousaphone on Let’s Make A Deal.
Trump, notoriously, has no patience with the President’s Daily Briefing. Our intelligence agencies have things to tell him, and he says No, No, No. He has now performed the impossible, making many of us sympathize with Tulsi Gabbard through his rejection of her seemingly uncontroversial summary of IC findings regarding Iran’s nuclear program–which Trump *must* turn into a rejection of Gabbard personally.
It seems he has been convinced otherwise by Bibi. Bibi, whose domestic popularity has surged since his country’s first strikes on Iran. Bibi, who must be singing siren songs of Trump’s own popularity-to-be in Israel in the wake of US strikes. So what does our IC do now? Conform its findings to the brave new world Trump prefers? I want to hear from Ratcliff. And yes, I want to hear from Gabbard…before Trump shows her the door. Because Hegseth is looking like an absolute Heston on TV today.
Ratcliffe was giving cover for Trump — I don’t have time to dig it up now but Ratcliffe was playing word games with that space between “Iran isn’t building a nuclear weapon” and “Iran’s uranium stockpile is at its highest levels,” leaning into the FUD before a closed meeting with a Congressional committee.
Gabbard backpedaled to cover her ass with Trump. Ugh, revolting.
According to Vance, Trump’s instincts > US Intelligence
Source: atrupar: https://x.com/atrupar/status/1936792767935488140
Trump has the instincts of a bully.
And according to Trump, Putin’s instincts are greater than US Intelligence.
Is the calculus equation of these
If Trump’s instincts are greater than US Intelligence and
If Putin’s instincts are greater than US Intelligence,
Solve for instincts vs Intelligence?
This may not be the best top post to address this in, but my thoughts have wandered to what will the rest of the world likely do or – ugh – simply say in response?
China – patient China – and perhaps Russia among some others may be all too happy to help with our hegemonic slide. China has been “banking” on it.
China – slow walk tariff discussions?
Russia – press even more in Ukraine?
Japan – they who more than occasionally remind the USA they hold $1.1T is US debt (Treasuries)?
The G7?
The EU – trade talks had been postponed to after 9 July?
The BRICS – I know the USA is not a member?
OPEC – Oil is more than likely to go – way – up than down or be stable?
NO doubt left a few ciritcal ones off.
Well…buckle up – we are going to find out.
Oh – and will look to see how fractured the MAGA cult becomes.
I suspect, if anything, the internal immigration assault will intensify, but that was likely already baked in.
I don’t think anything about the immigration assault is baked it, particularly if it remains visible.
Entire states face losing their crops.
You know what should be on the reaction/response list?
– Prosecution of Netanyahu at home for corruption should proceed;
– Reduce US foreign aid to Israel because they don’t need as much if Iran’s nuclear threat has been eliminated or substantively reduced;
– Increase humanitarian aid to Gaza because Hamas is clearly not a threat interfering with Israel’s actions against Iran.
Bravo, brilliant analysis! I’m a psychologist and I hadn’t thought to directly link the flaccid parade and other unsatisfactory domestic events with his need to bomb Iran. I saw the bombing as further acts of a bully – the cruelty and related power that arises from bullying- are the point. Fun, even!
I’m not sure that I follow how these actions would undermine his pursuit of dominance both at home and abroad. At home, the bullying tactics appear to be working, at least in the short term. It might take a while for consequences to catch up.
Iraq (the second time) and Afghanistan operated a bit under International Pottery Barn Rules: regime-change followed by occupation. Trump’s “lesson” from both was “Don’t accept responsibility for fixing what I broke.” Trump would see even an attempt to fix things as an invitation into “responsibility” and “accountability,” things he has spent his entire life fleeing from.
The problem is that I am not sure what follows. If not for Ukraine being a drain on Russia, I would see Russia and China “offering assistance” in rehabilitating and reestablishing Iran under their control, in return for control of Iranian oil reserves and pipelines. India and Pakistan could be easier to squeeze as well, giving China and Russia greater control over Asia’s confirmed nuclear powers.
As is, I don’t know if Putin cedes to Chinese hegemony in Iran as a cost of China’s help in Ukraine.
But I do see a world where China is now able to squeeze southern-rim Asia in more ways than before.
Having fully established his character as the global Mad Man, imagine how much easier it will be for Trump to extort concessions from American trading partners, and from anyone else who crosses his path. He’s become a Mini-me Roy Cohn on steroids.
Orban’s paradise.
I am visiting Budapest. A god forsaken hell of a city.
By far the worst in Europe.
The immediate blocks along the Danube where the tourist attractions are, are what you see and hear about in the travel media. The rest of the city is an unlivable, grimy, run down dump with surly, miserable people. Everything in the local shops and markets is overpriced, even more expensive than in France, and merchants complain to your face if you pay by credit card.
The food isn’t even edible. I wouldn’t serve the typical restaurant slop to a dog.
I can’t wait to escape.
https://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?/topic/21137-here-we-go-loop-de-loop-61625/#findComment-977701
Trump “has a psychological need to seek only coerced capitulation.” Voluntary participation brings him no excitement or release. It probably frustrates him further. An observation Keir Starmer is unwilling and unable to process, as he slavishly supports Trump’s bombing.
Speaking of sliding, yesterday mid-morning I went outside to check on something. Suddenly, about 5 ft. away, a snake slithered across the paved driveway and into the front bushes. It startled me so much that I went back inside. In the decades I’ve been at this location, that has not happened before.
So today I can’t help but be reminded of that snake poem that Trump loves to recite. If I was superstitious, I might think the incident was a portent. I wonder how many MAGAts will soon be thinking of that poem.
Do you know what kind of snake it was? Might shape the meaning of the portent. 0_o
LOL. No, I don’t. Not a rat snake. Hopefully it wasn’t venomous. But not sure. Even non-venomous snakes can bite when threatened, though.
“Trump’s military parade failed to give him the psychological fulfillment he sought, and so Bibi Netanyahu was able to sell him on an illegal invasion of Iran that would fill that need.” Maybe it is just a coincidence that it also has shifted news media attention away from not only his big beautiful parade, disastrous news coverage of immigration assaults, and the overwhelming success of the No Kings protests. Tfg seems to have a habit of redirecting attention. It may be an unconscious motive that adds to others in decision making. Now he is back to triumph, but it won’t be long before he needs another fix.
I am reminded of the various Oval Office meetings Trump had with foreign heads of state, where dominance was the key theme. Funny how that has kind of backfired on him, with Zelenskyy’s big drone attacks across Russia, and Germany’s new chancellor preparing Europe for life without an alliance with the US. Even his photo op with the Italian soccer/football club Juventus had its moments of dominance, as Trump tried to get the Italians to agree with him about trans athletes.
(And just as the NYT caught up with Quinn, Politico appears to have caught up with me on Merz, Germany, and Europe.)
Since trump struck first, I’m guessing NATO is under no obligation to participate.
What does that mean?
During Obama’s presidency, Syria’s Assad used chemical weapons on his own people. It was a “redline” for Obama, but Obama in his hesitation to act alone went to congress for authorization to punish Assad. Congress declined. Fast forward to 2025, trump smarting from his army parade “dud” sent his high powered military to bomb the Ayatollah. He ignored his own DNI’s evaluation and never considered consulting congress for authorization.
Any analysis I could pretend to make would be far inferior to Dr. Wheeler’s under normal conditions, nevermind Trump conditions. But the following keeps occurring to me re: threats to our democracy.
It seems there are three strands: Trump, the techbro billionaires, and the theocrats. Each has diverging endgames.
Trump has all the defects of a narcissist on the verge of dementia as well as the codes. He is accomplished at using the other two to achieve his goals, the primary of which appears to be sabotage of our society.
The techbros want to pay no taxes, to build out their Network States, to insulate themselves from the consequences of what serving their desires will bring.
The theocrats, many of them white supremacists, seek to bend the laws of the land to enable the Rapture, including taking down the wall between church and state.
As these three strands are braided together, they become stronger than any one alone. This makes attacking any one strand challenging. It’s akin to fighting the Hydra.