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Ahead of No Kings Day, the King’s Nobles are Getting Nervous

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National (Life)Guard Basic Training

From Mike Kehoe, the Governor of Missouri, as he gets in the Executive Order business today:

WHEREAS, our citizens have the right to peacefully assemble and protest, and the State of Missouri is committed to protecting the lawful exercise of the citizens’ constitutional rights; and

WHEREAS, the events that are occurring or could occur in the cities of Kansas City, Springfield, St. Louis, and other affected communities, in the State of Missouri, have created or may create conditions of distress and hazards to the safety, welfare, and property of the citizens and visitors of the communities beyond the capacities of local jurisdictions and other established agencies; and

WHEREAS, the rule of law must be maintained in the cities of Kansas City, Springfield, St. Louis, and other affected communities, in the State of Missouri, for the protection, safety, welfare, and property of the citizens, visitors, and businesses of those communities; and

WHEREAS, additional resources of the State of Missouri are or may be needed to help relieve the conditions of distress and hazard to the safety and welfare of the citizens of the cities of Kansas City, Springfield, St. Louis, and other affected communities; and

WHEREAS, the conditions necessary to declare the existence of an emergency pursuant to Chapter 44, RSMo, are found to exist due to the potential of civil unrest; and

WHEREAS, an invocation of the provisions of sections 44.010 through 44.130, RSMo, is necessary to ensure the safety and welfare of the citizens of the State of Missouri; and

WHEREAS, in consultation with community leaders, public safety officials, and emergency preparedness officials, I have determined that the following actions are necessary and appropriate to provide for the safety and welfare of Missouri’s citizens, visitors, private property, and businesses.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, MIKE KEHOE, GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF MISSOURI, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the Laws of the State of Missouri, including Sections 44.010 through 44.130, RSMo, do hereby declare that a State of Emergency exists in the State of Missouri due to civil unrest.

I further order, pursuant to Sections 41.480 and 41.690, RSMo, the Adjutant General of the State of Missouri, or his designee, to forthwith call and order into active service such portions of the organized militia as he deems necessary to aid the executive officials of Missouri, to protect life and property, and it is further ordered and directed that the Adjutant General or his designee, and through him, the commanding officer of any unit or other organization of such organized militia so called into active service take such action and employ such equipment as may be necessary in support of civilian authorities, and provide such assistance as may be authorized and directed by the Governor of this State.

This order shall terminate on June 30, 2025, unless extended in whole or in part.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and caused to be affixed the Great Seal of the State of Missouri, in the City of Jefferson, on this 12th day of June, 2025.

I can’t help but note some interesting language in this proclamation – phrases like “or could occur” and “or may create” in the second “whereas,” the phrase “or may be needed” in the fourth “whereas,” and especially “the potential of” in the fifth “whereas.”

Somehow, Kehoe manages to take all this subjunctive language about possible future situations as justification for his big THEREFORE: “I, Mike Kehoe . . . do hereby declare that a State of Emergency exists in the State of Missouri due to civil unrest.” I think he left “the possibility of” out of that last sentence, as that sentence probably ought to end with “the possibility of civil unrest.”

There have been plenty of protests across the state of Missouri over the last few months, in large blue cities and smaller red towns, and no reports of violence against people or property. None. Nada. Zip. The protests have targeted Musk and the DOGE cuts, RFK Jr’s dismantling of the nation’s public health infrastructure, the ICE crackdowns, and more, with the number of protests growing and spreading. This weekend, the planned No Kings protests have been gaining more and more attention, with more and more people getting more and more upset about what it being done in their names.

So the King’s Nobles are apparently pushing back.

First it was Texas and Greg Abbott, and now Mike Kehoe here in Missouri is trying to catch up. Some of this is surely a desire to show the King that they are following his example. The Nobles are also jostling with one another, as each seeks to shove him- or herself ahead of the others. That’s what the King’s Nobles do: they presume, they posture, they pretend, they position, and they pose, all so they can be seen by the King and gain the King’s approval.

The protest in Missouri I am wondering about this weekend is down in Springfield MO, in the southwest corner of the state. Broadly speaking, that’s a very conservative region (home to the Ashcroft clan and the Assemblies of God), though the city of Springfield itself has been represented in the state legislature by a Democrat. I was not surprised to see Kehoe mention St. Louis and Kansas City as hotbeds of (possible) discontent, violence, and mayhem. But Springfield? How did Springfield end up in this executive order?

Then I saw the Springfield television station KY3’s story about this weekend’s planned protests and it all became clear. “Ozarks Pridefest and Springfield’s No Kings protest will happen on Saturday in downtown Springfield” said the headline. It’s one thing for a bunch of lefty political agitators to march around with their signs, shouting their slogans, but quite another if you add the gays and their creativity to the mix. “Gov. Kehoe, let us show you how to pose . . .”

I can see it now . . .

Coming down the street as a unit are dozens of buff men in nothing but flip flops and red speedos, preceded by a banner that reads “Call out the National (Life)Guard!” They are marching in formation with pool noodles held out in front of them, mirroring the scenes in LA with lines of baton-wielding ICE and LAPD folks in their masks and top to bottom black uniforms. The unit’s leader carries a ring buoy, and he holds it high as his voice calls out like a grizzled drill sergeant: “Lifeguaaaaards . . . HALT!” and the formation stops in unison. “Shoulderrrrr . . . NOODLES!” he calls, and they put their pool noodles on their shoulders like rifles. The leader’s voice rings out again, “Sing out, Lifeguards! . . . I like my state like I like my scotch!” says the leader, and the the crew calls back “NEAT! (pause) NO ICE!”

Again the leader repeats the call, and now the crowds of people on the sidewalks start to join in on that “NEAT! (pause) NO ICE!” refrain. Again and again the leader calls, and again and again the crowd replies, getting louder and louder each time.

Then the leader stops. “Lifeguaaaards, Face OUT!” he shouts, and the formation splits in two down the middle, with each half turning to face the sidewalk on either side of the street. “To the currrrbbbb, MARCH!” and they step off in unison, stopping at the edge of the street. “Abouuuut FACE!” and they turn 180 degrees to face each other again.

He blows his whistle with three sharp tweets, waves his bouy back down the street, and every eye turns to see what’s coming. Two elegant queens are carrying a sign identifying the group following the (Life)Guards: “Call out the National Bard!” A second banner follows, announcing “National Bard Unit One: The E Street Chorus”, with leather-and-denim clad men, singing in full voice. They pass through the (Life) Guard lining the curb, and then chorus splits in half, and moves to the curbs as well.

Next comes a banner with “National Bard Unit Two: The Chicks” with a crew of lesbians singing something about Earl, and they too move to the curb to add themselves to the parade units lining the street.

National Bard Unit Three comes after them, the Guthries, singing about the Group W Bench, a restaurant, Thanksgiving, and the draft, and they get in line on each side of the streets next to The Chicks unit.

Finally, bringing up the rear, is National Bard Unit Four. There is no unit name on the banner, but everyone knows who this crew of singers are in their bright red and sumptuously bedazzled gowns, playing their banjos and fiddles. As they begin to sing, it is obvious that the (Life) Guard, the E Street Chorus, the Chicks, and the Guthries are their honor guard, and as the banjo-strumming, fiddle-playing, gown-wearing singers pass, the honor guard joins in the song of the Swifties unit:

‘Cause all you are is mean
And a liar, and pathetic
And alone in life, and mean
And mean, and mean, and mean

All you’re *ever* gonna be is mean.

OK, maybe this is just a Boomer’s imagination of what Springfield will look like on Saturday, but still.

Donald Trump is afraid, and so is Mike Kehoe. That’s why they called out the National Guard.

What Trump fears isn’t loud voices spouting off against black-clad police. What Trump fears isn’t media pundits soberly pontificating about Rule of Law and whether The King can send the Marines to LA. What Trump fears is not sternly worded letters from Democrats as Susan Collins clutches her pearls.

What The King and all The King’s Nobles and all The King’s Men fear is mockery.

I can’t help but hope that the combination of Ozarks Pride and the No Kings protesters gives them exactly that, with Harvey Milk and John Lewis smiling down from heaven and watching folks making all kinds of Good Trouble.

‘Cause that would be fabulous!

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Permission Structures and Polling Puzzles

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As of today, Trump has less than 7% of his campaign left (47 of 721 days).

As of today, Harris has almost 44% of her campaign left (47 of 107 days).

Keep that in mind as you read this column from NYT’s Nate Cohn, in which he tries to puzzle out why Kamala Harris is doing less well in what he deems high quality national polls than she’s doing in Pennsylvania.

Never mind that his pick of polls has some few suspect polls in there. Effectively what Cohn convinces himself he’s seeing is that the Electoral College, which normally favors Democrats, may this year favor Trump.

Now let’s consider our puzzle: a clear lead for Ms. Harris in Pennsylvania, but a tie nationwide? This is unexpected. Four years ago, President Biden won the national vote by 4.5 percentage points, but won Pennsylvania by just 1.2 points. Similarly, our poll averages have shown Ms. Harris doing better nationwide than in Pennsylvania. This poll is nearly the opposite.

Usually, I’d say that this is probably just statistical noise — the inevitable variation in poll results inherent to random sampling. And it might well be, as we shall see. But I think it’s hard to assume that this is simply noise, for two reasons:

  • It’s what we’ve shown before. It’s easy enough to dismiss any single poll result as a statistical fluke. But we’ve now found similar results in our last two polls of the nation and Pennsylvania.
  • This is becoming a trend among high-quality pollsters. Yes, our poll average shows Ms. Harris doing better nationally than in Pennsylvania, but if you focus only on higher-quality polls (which we call “select pollsters” in our table), the story is a bit different. Over the last month, a lot of these polls show Ms. Harris doing relatively poorly nationwide, but doing well in the Northern battleground states.

Note that Nate says NYT’s own polls aren’t moving much (while admitting the first days after the debate, responses in PA were more favorable to Harris). But Harris’ lead in MI and PA, across all polls, is inching ever so slowly higher, with some polls beginning to show leads outside the margin of error.

My suspicion is we’re still seeing two effects: that of RFK endorsing Trump, which may have helped Trump by a point (indeed, some polls aren’t including him in states, like WI and MI, where he remains on the ballot) and the debate and Taylor Swift endorsement, which may have helped Harris by up to three.

So far.

But this is why I keep coming back to the 7% versus 44% that each candidate has left in their campaign. Harris is doing in an incredibly compressed timeline, at least by US standards, what campaigns spend years doing. As a result, some baseline actions, such as recruiting volunteers, happened later than they otherwise might have. So there could be — though by no means is guaranteed — a late-election effect from them, as those efforts bear fruit.

Still, as Harris tries to build on that foundation, Trump’s unconventional choices — such as to fire the RNC personnel doing field work and instead to let an Elon Musk PAC do that work — has risks, as evidenced by the decision to fire and replace the canvasing contractor in NV and AZ with 50 days left to go.

That leaves open the possibility that we’ll see gradual movement in the weeks ahead, even ignoring a big blunder by one of the campaigns, or a Black Swan event of the type that would be unsurprising this year.

Brittany Mahomes

To understand what kind of delayed effect recent events might bring about, start with Brittany Mahomes, the spouse of KC Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, who has become close to Taylor Swift as both root for their partners at football games. According to the Daily Mail, Trump’s attack on Swift led Ms. Mahomes to rethink her prior support of Trump.

Brittany Mahomes is ‘deeply bothered’ by Donald Trump’s very public attack on her close friend Taylor Swift, according to sources who claim the Kansas City Chiefs WAG is questioning her support for the former president.

Brittany, who has been married to Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes since 2022, sparked a liberal meltdown last month when she liked a post about Trump, 78, on social media.

Weeks later, Taylor, 34, publicly endorsed Kamala Harris’ bid for president – an action that drove a reported 338,000 visits to the federal voter registration website after she shared a link on Instagram.

Trump hit back in predictably blistering style on his Truth Social platform, claiming ‘I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT’ – prompting Brittany, 29, to ‘question’ if she will continue to endorse his campaign.

‘She is questioning her support for Donald Trump after he lashed out at Taylor, saying he hates her,’ a source exclusively revealed to DailyMail.com.

Swift is perhaps the most trusted American, in any sphere. Because of that, polarization will work in her favor, and through her, Harris’, in the same way it tends to work in Trump’s favor when he spins prosecution of him as an attack on him. If people do things to Swift, her supporters will side with her all the more strongly, and in this matter, that may produce movement to Harris.

Mahomes’ vote — presumably cast in MO, where the couple lives — is not going to swing any races. But what is publicly reported to be going on with her may go on with millions of the diehard Swifties who would normally be soft Trump supporters. But that process takes time. First they reconsider their prior beliefs, then they learn why Swift supports Harris, then they get used to the idea of voting for a Democrat.

It’s a process, one that has as many as 47 days left to work.

Springfield’s Republicans and Reagan’s Dead-Enders

Something similar may be happening among more traditional Republicans.

Politico reported on how Republicans stuck with the chaos Trump has created in heavily Republican Springfield are rethinking their Republican support.

“Any political leader that takes the national stage and has the national spotlight needs to understand the gravity of the words that they have for cities like ours, and what they say impacts our city,” Rue, who said he was tired and angry, told POLITICO. “And we’ve had bomb threats the last two days. We’ve had personal threats the last two days, and it’s increasing, because the national stage is swirling this up. Springfield, Ohio, is caught in a political vortex, and it is a bit out of control. We are a wonderful city — a beautiful town. And for what it’s worth, your pets are safe in Springfield, Ohio.”

Asked whether he is going to vote for Trump, the 54-year-old mayor said, “I’m just probably not going to answer that question.” He said he is deeply “frustrated” with Trump’s remarks and how Springfield has become collateral damage.

[snip]

Republican Clark County Commission President Melanie Flax-Wilt, who said she backed Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is now undecided, largely refused to talk about national politics. But she said she was frustrated.

“I’m of the belief that it’s our local community that is going to be here dealing with this after all of the national news is gone and everybody’s done using Springfield, Ohio, as a poster child for immigration reform. We’re the ones who are going to be stuck figuring out what to do with these challenges that are facing us,” said Flax-Wilt.

Sasha Rittenhouse, another Republican member of the county commission, said, “We’ve seen a lot of, I don’t want to say crazy, but unfounded things. It’s a matter of trying to go back and see if there’s any validity to any of it.”

She added, “And thus far, we have not been able to track anything down that definitively shows that any of these things are happening.”

Of her plans to vote this November, Rittenhouse said: “I have not decided what I’m doing. I’ve been a Republican my entire life, and I will leave it at that.”

Any such reconsideration would happen amidst a larger permission structure created by the number of Republicans who’ve publicly supported Harris, including a new batch of national security professionals (some with ties to Dick Cheney, who of course endorsed Harris a week ago — rolled out yesterday, and a group of former Reagan aides rolled out days earlier.

I don’t know whether that will or is working; clearly, Harris finds the support valuable, so the campaign may be seeing positive effects from the GOP support.

But the point is to simply create a permission structure for those wavering in their support for Trump to consider Harris, to rebrand it as patriotism.

Again, if it works, it’ll take time. It’ll be a process.

Iowa draws closer

One of the most interesting polling developments in recent weeks is not in a swing state; it’s in Iowa. The state’s best pollster, Ann Selzer — whom some argue is the best state pollster in the country — released a poll showing Harris within 4 of Trump in the state.

Ann Selzer’s gold standard poll is out, and suggests a remade presidential race in Iowa.

The top line numbers from Selzer & Co’s latest poll for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom indicate former President Donald Trump has 47 percent support and Vice President Kamala Harris 43 percent among likely Iowa voters. This poll started contacting respondents on September 8 (before the debate) and concluded on September 11, the day after the debate. At the end of this piece is a summary of post-debate national polling, which has found a gain for Harris of about 1 percent.

When you compare the new survey to Selzer’s numbers from June (Trump 50 percent, President Joe Biden 32 percent in Iowa), you will find a 14 point shift in margin. But purely focusing on the margin may be a mistake.

Trump’s level of support has varied little since February, when Selzer found him ahead of Biden by 48 percent to 33 percent in Iowa. The change is in the Democratic number. Harris has consolidated the Democratic base, and the 43 percent she receives in this survey is close to the 44.9 percent vote share for Biden in the 2020 election.

As Selzer describes it, this poll reflects new participation among groups energized since Harris got in the race.

Now, 81% of all Iowans say they will definitely vote in the general election, up from 76% in June. However, some of the demographic groups more likely to favor Harris are showing increased participation.

Women show an 8-percentage-point uptick in likely voting since June, Iowans younger than 45 show a 10-point increase, city dwellers show a 6-point bounce, and those with a college degree are up 9 points.

Iowa is not going to go for Harris; if it does, this would not be a close race. But because of Selzer’s credibility, this suggests a trend in the Midwest that likely confirms positive polling for Harris in neighboring WI (and Nebraska’s Omaha district).

But by drawing close in Iowa, Harris puts two of Iowa’s congressional districts in play.

To understand the importance of this new poll, and what it means if it is on target, let’s look at Iowa’s U.S. House seats. As noted above, this poll find Harris trailing Trump by 4 percent statewide. The table below applies that shift to both the 2020 numbers and the results of the 2022 Congressional races.

If Selzer is accurate, Harris is ahead in two of Iowa’s four Congressional districts (the first and the third), and would only narrowly lose the second district. Based on those numbers the Democrats would likely pick up at least one House seat in Iowa, and three races would be competitive.

Even before this poll, Democrats had started dumping (more) money in the two Iowa CDs, so their internals must be showing similar movement.

Pennsylvania bellwethers

There have been a slew of polls from PA overnight. But the result I find most interesting is this one, from earlier in the week: a Suffolk poll of PA (showing a 49-46 Harris lead) and two bellwether counties, Northampton (Bethleham) and Erie (around the city), showing 4-5 point leads for Harris in both.

The survey results showed that the vice president also led the former president in Northampton and Erie counties – two counties that have picked the winner of the last two presidential elections.

Harris had a five-point edge (50-45%) over Trump in Northampton County, located in eastern Pennsylvania and is the home of the cities of Bethlehem and Easton. President Joe Biden carried the county, 50-49%, in 2020 after Trump topped Hillary Clinton, 50-46%, in 2016.

In the northwest corner of the Commonwealth, Harris carries a four-point advantage over Trump, 48-44% – a larger margin than either winner produced in the last two elections. Biden squeezed out a 1-point edge (50-49%) in winning in 2020, while Trump had a two-point triumph in Erie, 49-47%, four years earlier.

Experienced politicos tend to focus on bellwether precincts or counties to read a state and Suffolk just started doing this in the 2022 race (their results predicted John Fetterman’s victory, but weren’t accurate for the county). I’m interested in this approach, though, because it’s one attempt to address all the difficulties with polling.

I’m also interested because of how NYT, among other outlets, has covered the race in Erie.

In July, when Trump led Joe Biden’s native state by 3, NYT did a story on how little credit Biden has gotten for economic investment in Rust Belt areas, focusing on Erie.

On a blighted industrial corridor in a struggling section of Erie, Pa., a long-abandoned iron factory has been humming with activity for the first time in decades. Construction crews have been removing barrels of toxic waste, knocking down crumbling walls and salvaging rusted tin roofing as they prepare to convert the cavernous space into an events venue, advanced manufacturing hub and brewery.

The estimated $25 million project is the most ambitious undertaking the Erie County Redevelopment Authority has ever attempted. It was both kick-started and remains heavily funded by various pots of money coming from Biden administration programs.

Yet there is no obvious sign of President Biden’s influence on the project. Instead, the politician who has taken credit for the Ironworks Square development effort most clearly is Representative Mike Kelly, a Pennsylvania Republican who voted against the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law that is helping to fund the renovation.

It is one example of a larger problem Mr. Biden faces in Pennsylvania, a swing state that could decide the winner of the 2024 election. In places like Erie, a long-struggling manufacturing hub bordering the Great Lake that is often an election bellwether, Mr. Biden is struggling to capitalize on his own economic policies even when they are providing real and visible benefits.

In August, after Harris had remade the race, WaPo did a story about Erie’s longterm economic plight, noting that its plight would affect the vote there. When it described a new factory funded by the Inflation Reduction Act as a green shoot that might change things, it didn’t describe that Kamala Harris cast the deciding vote for the law that funded it.

The irony — or the puzzle — is that this evident stress coexists with hints of green shoots in the local economy.

A long-planned plastics recycling facility is moving forward, thanks to a new federal loan guarantee. The Japanese corporation Kyocera broke ground this spring on a new manufacturing facility. And popular amenities, including an indoor golf simulator and a rock climbing gym, have opened downtown.

A pre-debate September story in NYT focused on Tim Walz’ appearance in Erie to highlight the campaign’s efforts — more apparent in Harris’ stop in Wilkes-Barre, a story about which NYT focused on skeptics about Harris —  to shave Trump’s margins in rural areas.

“Look, it would be easier if we didn’t have to do this. It would be easier if these guys wouldn’t undermine our system, if they wouldn’t lie about elections, if they wouldn’t put women’s health at risk. But they are, so it’s a privilege for us to do the fight,” he said in Erie, Pa., where he stumped from a stage at the edge of Presque Isle Bay before hundreds of cheering supporters waving “Coach” and “Kamala” signs.

The appearance was one of several events that Mr. Walz used to blitz the local media airwaves and fire up Democratic volunteers with the Midwestern dad charm that his party is banking on to help draw white working-class voters. Mr. Walz, and his daughter, Hope, hit several cities in counties that went for Mr. Trump in 2016 — stung by fading American manufacturing and a difficult economy.

[snip]

His trip also underscored the challenges for his ticket as Democrats aim to improve their margins in rural and red-leaning areas in November. The specter of the former president loomed at nearly every stop, and though Mr. Walz arrived ready to engage with undecided voters, some places yielded few opportunities to do so. Mr. Walz also frustrated a handful of reporters as he refused to answer shouted questions.

It complained, twice, that Walz didn’t take reporters’ bait to answer questions only interesting to a pack of beltway journalists.

That outcome by Suffolk, if accurate, reflects a lot of work that Harris and Walz have put in, work that mainstream outlets seem ready to dismiss (while griping that candidates aren’t focusing on coastal journalists while visiting those areas).

There’s a story in Erie. It is a recognizable bellwether area. But rather than look there to see if that’s what explains a possible split between the national polls and PA, NYT’s pollster ignores the possibility that Harris is doing better in swing states than nationally because efforts she has made in those swing states, efforts that don’t feed the media’s narrative have made a difference.

What the Iowa poll may show is a national reconsideration that has happened as Kamala took over the ticket, particularly as women and young voters became more enthused. What the Suffolk PA poll may show is that more focused efforts in swing states are, very gradually, having some results.

That’s why I keep coming back to timing. Trump has 7% of his campaign left, and he’s spending much of his time outside of swing states, attempting to create stunts to shift the media narrative. Harris has 44% of her campaign left, and she’s spending it, partly, out of the limelight, working relentlessly to win over small groups of voters in the swing states that will decide the election.

We should expect a well-run campaign that has focused on swing states to show some results in those swing states, particularly in a race against a guy, Trump, who seems to have a ceiling for his support. Maybe that’s what we’re seeing.

If the election were held today, Harris would have a very good shot to win, but only narrowly. A narrow win might not be enough to stave off whatever fuckery Trump has planned.

But the election won’t be held today. She’s still got 44% of her campaign left to get this hard work to pay off.

Update: Fixed spelling of bellwether.

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The Midway Point of Kamala Harris’ Campaign

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In the first half of her campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris raised $361 million in a month and another $47 million in a day.

In the first half of her campaign, Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris and encouraged 400,000 people to register to vote.

In the first half of her campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris pantsed Donald Trump in a debate, out-TVing a TV pro.

I’ve been tracking the weird timing of this race. Sunday begins the 22nd month that Trump has been running. Because his damn campaign has been going on forever, he’s been plodding through the 92% mark of his campaign for days, stuck in slow-motion.

Today marks the 54th day of Harris’ campaign, with 53 left. Thus begins the second half of her campaign.

There are still things that could unsettle the race. Less than a month ago I listed six things that might yet do so:

  • Kamala avoided any violent protests at the DNC (though her campaign also refused to grant a speaking slot to anyone supporting Palestinians, something that could affect her Michigan support).
  • There’s no sign of a ceasefire in Israel, and Joe Biden has done little to forestall Israeli actions as they move to the West Bank.
  • The debate did turn out to be pretty tumultuous, and it seems to have given Harris a slight boost in the polls — but thus far, it’s not clear how much.
  • Between that and a particularly bad outing in New York last week, there is finally increased focus on how unhinged the former President is.
  • His attack on immigrants in Springfield has led to political violence; I fear there will be more as Trump gets more desperate.
  • Trump won’t be sentenced before the election (which could have helped as much as hurt him), but a superseding indictment will provide prosecutors a way to lay out his alleged crimes two weeks from now, on September 26.

On top of bad campaign news, Trump’s financial plight may begin to dominate headlines. In apparent response to Trump’s debate, his social media company crashed harder than it already was.

Unless the stock crashes some more, Trump can start unloading his Truth Social stock on Thursday. Devin Nunes seems more intent on using it to engage in diplomatic discussions with small Balkan nations.

On Monday, Trump and his failsons (including Barron) will unveil their next grift, a cryptocurrency. As Truth Social was, this is largely an effort to cash in on Trump’s popularity — but doing so significantly depends on winning the election and installing a captive SEC Chair.

If nothing else, the focus on Trump’s grift might finally get the press to focus on how much Trump defrauds his rubes.

Meanwhile, the House GOP is doing what the House GOP does: struggling to keep the government open. There’s a non-zero chance their incompetence, long hidden by supine journalists, will become visible to voters in an epic way in the next few weeks. Trump is rooting for a shutdown in the same way he made the GOP kill the border bill.

Against that background, the things that happen in the last 7.5 weeks of a campaign will happen like they normally do: volunteers will continue to call potential voters, try to get them to commit to voting for Harris, and then start encouraging voters to vote early. Harris will have extra help from unions this year to get out the vote, but she’ll need extra support from lawyers to fight back against Trump’s fuckery.

But even as that’s happening, Harris is still reaching out to new voting groups, which is one reason I’m obsessed about the timing.

The accelerated timeline shrinks the time between the moment something — perhaps an endorsement from some disgusted Republican or seeing Harris’ stature in the debate — leads a voter to first consider the possibility of voting for her and the moment they have to decide. The endorsement by the Cheneys is about creating a permission structure for Republicans to do so — to help them believe they can be patriots even if voting for a Democrat. Swift’s endorsement makes it more likely younger women will make more effort that twenty-somethings normally do to turn out. With more time, the Vice President might convert more voters, might get more voters to decide to show up.

Trump is doing everything he can to help, though, spreading neo-Nazi lies about Haitian immigrants, bringing 9/11 denier Laura Loomer to the 9/11 memorial, and hosting events with Hitler fans who attacked the Capitol at his golf resort.

But at the halfway mark, this race is still neck-and-neck.

Donald Trump is making it more clear what a vote for him would mean. But there are still far too many American voters who want the con he’s selling.

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Trash Talk: The Trashiest Talk Ever Trashed

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[NB: check the byline, thanks. /~Rayne]

I’m braced for the crabbing sure to come with this post: “But this is Trash Talk, it’s supposed to be about sports!”

Uh, it’s TRASH talk, which is talk about trash. Not all trash is exclusively about sports.

There are also more sports than those contained on a field or played with a ball, for that matter. Like the sport of celebrity watching — just ask Golf Magazine.

This week’s Trashiest Trash Talk covers the intersection between sports trash and celebrity trash — when popular performer in Entertainment Industry A meets popular performer in Entertainment Industry B and begins dating.

~ ~ ~

Travis Kelce, tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs, has something going on with mega pop star Taylor Swift.

In case you have not been on the planet the past few weeks, here’s what’s been happening: Kelce, who plays for the Kansas City Chiefs, confessed awhile back to his brother Jason Kelce, who plays for the Philadelphia Eagles, that he had unsuccessfully tried to slide his digits to Swift via a friendship bracelet at the Kansas City stop of her “Eras” concert tour.

People became invested. Travis Kelce later said he “threw the ball in her court” and told Swift, “I’ve seen you rock the stage in Arrowhead. You might have to come see me rock the stage in Arrowhead and see which one’s a little more lit.”

Plot twist: Swift showed up at his game last Sunday and sat in a suite next to his mom. Swift and Kelce – now known as “Tayvis,” “Traylor,” “Swelce” or “K. Swift,” depending upon who you ask – even left the game via Kelce’s convertible. Photos have since surfaced of the two of them together looking quite chummy.

It’s not an unbelievable pairing. Both Kelce and Swift are 33 years old, Kelce being only a couple months older than Swift. They’re from neighboring Rust Belt states; Kelce is from Westlake, OH and Swift was from West Reading, PA. They both have established careers and aren’t hurting for money or attention though Swift’s income is far greater by a dizzying magnitude.

Unsurprisingly, the internet has gone bonkers about this couple. Kelce already had a good size fanbase because of his achievements on the field (“one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history (top five, to be exact). He’s also won two Super Bowls, has 825 receptions for 10,000+ yards, and 71 career touchdowns“) and appearances off the field (star of E! Entertainment’s Catching Kelce reality TV dating show as well as advertising appearances).

And then there are Swift’s Swifties — a legendary massive fandom who’ve followed her work as far back as 2004.

Will any of the buzz around this pair do anything for NFL football? Many football fans may find all the hoopla a distraction from the sport. But it’s possible a new audience and a new generation of football fans may emerge from this pop culture convergence.

There are already multiple articles with explainers about football aimed at Swifties.

Imagine what Swifties could do to ticket and merch sales this season given the size of Swift’s audiences like the one in Kansas City which set the “Tayvis” buzz in motion. Kelce himself could earn another $5-$10 million this year; his merchandise sales exploded by 400% last weekend thanks to the “Taylor Swift effect.”

Given Taylor’s has already met and been hanging with Kelce’s mom at the game last weekend, this is going to be this season’s personality angle to watch.

There’s just one problem — a rather ugly downside. If this couple doesn’t last, you can expect a crash spread across entertainment media and yet another mega hit record complete with breakup song about a tight end.

Swift is expected at MetLife Stadium tomorrow night to watch Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs against the New York Jets. Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET.

The NFL has already been capitalizing on this in its promotions, of course. Can hardly wait for the breakup song swatting that kind of opportunism.

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Speaking of Taylor Swift, the pop star deployed her own “Taylor Swift effect” for the benefit of democracy this week:

“…Just days after Swift urged Swifties to register to vote on National Voter Registration Day in an Instagram Story, shocker, they listened and signed up to do their civic duty in record numbers.

On Wednesday (Sept. 20), Vote.org’s communications director, Nick Morrow, wrote on X (fka Twitter) that Swift’s plea resulted in a tidal wave of new registrations. “Fun fact: after @taylorswift13 posted on Instagram today directing her followers to register to vote on @votedotorg, our site was averaging 13,000 users every 30 minutes. 13!” he revealed, noting the cosmic coincidence of the bump coalescing with the singer’s favorite number. …”

More of this kind of opportunism, please and thanks!

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In other sports news —

• The 44th Ryder Cup’s Day 2 just wrapped. As a family member concisely put it after yesterday’s golf matches wrapped up, “Team USA got waxed!” Team Europe led the US as they teed off this morning at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club near Rome, Italy; they hung onto their lead through the end of play today. It’s not looking good for Team US this year.

• Green Bay Packers sent a message to their ticketholders encouraging them to resell their tickets to Packers’ fans after this Thursday night’s game when the Detroit Lions won 34–20, propelling a sea of blue jersey-wearing Lions fans onto Lambeau Field. Apparently the sight got Packers’ dander up more than the Lions’ holding the Pack to a mere total 27 yards rushing.

• As anticipated, MSU Spartan’s head coach Mel Tucker was fired this week for his “inappropriate and unprofessional conduct” relating to interaction with a sex abuse prevention activist. Tucker has indicated he’ll sue MSU for wrongful termination.

~ ~ ~

Bring your trash here; consider this an open thread.

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Three Things: Can’t Keep Quiet

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This was the unofficial anthem of January 2017’s Women’s March. I needed the reminder this Monday after the insult of Kavanaugh’s nomination.

Speaking of insults…

~ 3 ~

It must be the current propaganda theme common to both Republicans and the Kremlin to mock women who stand up for themselves.

Senator McConnell thinks he and his white gerontocracy were attacked by mean old feminists, telling the audience at a press conference in Kentucky, “I couldn’t be prouder of the Senate Republican Conference. We were standing up for the presumption of innocence in this country . . . And secondly, we were literally under assault . . . There was a full-scale effort to intimidate.”

Oh Turtlehead. You are so feeble and an insult to the state of Kentucky.

Meanwhile Russian media has been pushing a fake video showing women attacking men for ‘manspreading’. The video spread rapidly but goodness knows how much of that is bot traffic. The intent is incitement of anger and violence against feminists specifically and women at large though the truth is the overwhelming majority of women would never attempt anything like that in the fake video for fear of immediate physical reprisal by men.

There’s really no need for incitement. Women are far more likely to be attacked as one woman was this weekend outside Detroit, shot after she refused a man’s advances. Three women die each day in the U.S. of domestic violence.

But McConnell and GOP senators were under assault. Right.

~ 2 ~

After songwriter, musician, and singer Taylor Swift posted on Instagram against GOP senate candidate Marsha Blackburn, another clueless old white dude came out to taunt and insult her and her fans.

Swift’s 28 years old; she’s been a number one hit performer for the last dozen years. The majority of her fans range in age from tweens to retirees, in no small part because she began her career in country music rather than pop rock. She has nearly 84 million followers on Twitter alone and I’m sure there are far fewer bots as a percentage than there are following Trump. Swift’s got one hell of a microphone.

But do go ahead, Huckster Huckabee, and mock them. I’m sure this will persuade them to vote for Blackburn.

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The only nit I have with Swift’s social media plea to vote for Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen (and not Blackburn) is that she should have done this a week or more ago. There are many states with deadlines for registration TODAY and TUESDAY this week. Celeste_pewter has the details in this Twitter thread.

If you haven’t registered, drop everything and do so now. If you know of someone who hasn’t, drop everything and help them right now.

Pay particular heed to college students living on campus and those who are stuck at home due to disability and illness. Help them with registration and obtaining an absentee ballot.

What are you waiting for? Another insult?

~ 0 ~

This is an open thread.

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