War Council

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If you haven’t already read Pat Lang on Bush’s surprise visit to Iraq today, do so now. For whatever PR value BushCo is trying to milk out of this visit (here’s C&L with coverage), Lang is persuasive that the chief reason for the visit is to bring his war cheerleaders together to develop a game plan for the next few weeks.

I note that the president’s travel party to AssadAir base in Anbar Province includes; Gates, Rice, Pace, Fallon, Lute,Hadley.  There, he will, of course, see Petraeus and Crocker as well. Anyone else of note? Any AEIers? Sounds like a council of war to me. Nice and isolated, minimal press interference and possibility ofoperational security planning breach.  Well thought out.  This will bea good place to get everyone "on board" and to coordinate tactics forthe Petraeus/Crocker show to come.

I’d love to know the answer to the questions Lang lays out. Learning who else attended this meeting would tell us a lot about ongoing strategy. Did they really have this meeting without anyone from OVP? For the record, I’m not entirely sure Hadley attended, though he could be considered an OVP mole if he did. And the WaPo quoted Ed Gillespie Read more →

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Good Enough for Our Children, But Not Bush’s Vanity War

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I made the point this morning that the whole premise of No Child Left Behind is that, by determining whether every school–and every child–was passing or failing, you could require improvements on the schools.

Well, not surprisingly, Bush is unwilling to undergo the same kind of tough scrutiny that the six year olds in our nation’s schools undergo:

Stung by the bleakfindings of a congressional audit of progress in Iraq, the Pentagon hasasked that some of the negative assessments be revised, a militaryspokesman said Thursday.

[snip]

At the White House,officials argued that the GAO report, which was required by legislationPresident Bush signed last spring, was unrealistic because it assigned“pass or fail” grades to each benchmark, rather than assessingwhether the Iraqis have made progress toward reaching the benchmarkgoals.

"A bar was set so high, that it was almost not to be able to be met,” White House deputy press secretary Dana Perino said.

I don’t know which is more tempting–to point out the failure of the NCLB logic, so we can get funding for the borderline schools that are improving but not "passing." Or to force the NCLB logic onto Bush’s failure of a war so we can bring our men and women home?

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The Report Liberation Review Process

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Remember back when someone liberated the Office of Special Counsel report finding Lurita Doan had violated the Hatch Act? I speculated that someone had liberated the report to prevent it from getting watered down in the review process.

I’ll bet Doan and her lawyer are pissed this report got leaked–kudosto whatever person in OPC liberated this report, which was provided toat least the WaPo and LAT. As the report notes, only President Bush canimplement the recommendation of the report, which is to fire Doan. Anybets on whether, by leaking the report, the chances are greater thatDoan will actually be canned for her illegal political activities?

Well, the propaganda has gotten so thick that now, when people liberate reports to ensure their harsh conclusions see the light of day, they tell you they are doing so. At least that’s what has happened with the GAO report finding that the Iraq effort has filed to reach most benchmarks.

A GAO spokesman declined to comment on the report before it is released. The 69-page draft, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post, is still undergoing review at the Defense Department,which may ask that parts of it be classified or request changes in itsconclusions. Read more →

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The NIE: Iraq to Split in Three States

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Okay, that’s not precisely the conclusion the new NIE in Iraq draws. But it is the logical outcome of the key judgments its gives. Here are some key points, taken totally out of the context of the report, but which are otherwise direct quotes:

  • The IC assesses that the emergence of “bottom-up” security initiatives, principally among Sunni Arabs and focused on combating AQI, represent the best prospect for improved security over the next six to 12 months, but we judge these initiatives will only translate into widespread political accommodation and enduring stability if the Iraqi Government accepts and supports them. A multi-stage process involving the Iraqi Government providing support and legitimacy for such initiatives could foster over the longer term political reconciliation between the participating Sunni Arabs and the national government. We also assess that under some conditions “bottom-up initiatives” could pose risks to the Iraqi Government.
  • Such initiatives, if not fully exploited by the Iraqi Government, could over time also shift greater power to the regions, undermine efforts to impose central authority, and reinvigorate armed opposition to the Baghdad government.
  • The polarization of communities is most evident in Baghdad, where the Shia are a clear majority in more than half of all Read more →
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House GOP Mutiny

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We’ve been hearing inklings of a BushCo plan for a veerrrrryyy slooowwww draw-down of troops. Scott Horton explains the reasoning more clearly than "serious" journalists would.

A major point driving the move has been the Congressional G.O.P. Bushwas told that if he pushed a straight continuation of the Surgestrategy after this fall, he would lose most of the CongressionalG.O.P. One senior Republican Congressional figure is said to have toldhim that the G.O.P. would be “committing suicide” if it went into the2008 elections with the Iraq War as the lead issue and no draw-down insight. Bush has been assured that he can hold the G.O.P. in Congresstogether with an extended, slow paced draw-down.

Now, I’m not surprised, nor will I be surprised when Duncan boasts of telling me so when this proposed draw-down turns into a mirage that gets vetoed by Dick.

But I do find it curious that Rove leaves–all the while promising glorious success in Iraq. Republicans–even Fox News–is surprisingly and publicly gleeful at his departure. And all of a sudden news of a draw-down is floated.

It would be logical for the Republican House to start demanding some changes, after their big losses last year. I guess the GOP Senate has already Read more →

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It’s Going to Be One Heckova Political Year in Football

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Just a few weeks away, too! I can’t wait to turn the satellite back on.

It’s going to be an interesting year in football. Not only have the Patriots loaded up on targets for Tom Brady. But the following issues have arisen since the end of last season:

  • Keith Olbermann will be returning to sportscasting in NBC’s Sunday night prime time slot. He’s not likely to be overtly political–though I do hope it’ll get Joe Sixpack to consider tuning into his show. Olbermann will be accompanied by the conservative but very very pretty Tiki Barber, so the show has something for every … woman, at least.
  • A number of veterans are trying to get the NFL to help get documents relating to Pat Tillman’s death. In any case, the ongoing controversy with the Administration’s cover-up of the real reasons for Tillman’s death might begin to attract some Joe Sixpack  attention as the season gets into gear.
  • George Bush has appointed the gay-hating (but brilliant) Tony Dungy to a Presidential Council.

Hopefully, that last item, tied to Bush’s disappearing support, will convince Americans everywhere that the Colts are not America’s team.

Which is my way of warning you all that there might be an undue Read more →

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Ghost Writing

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I think it ought to be mandatory for everyone who reads this LAT article to also watch Bill Kristol on TDS. It’s bad enough, after all, to learn that the Petraeus report we’ve all been waiting for might as well be called the Dick Cheney report.

Despite Bush’s repeated statements that the report will reflect evaluations by Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, administration officials said it would actually be written by the White House, with inputs from officials throughout the government.

And though Petraeus and Crocker will present their recommendations onCapitol Hill, legislation passed by Congress leaves it to the presidentto decide how to interpret the report’s data.

Though now I understand how the Administration is going to use the NIE on Iraq that is also due next month–they’re going to interpret the news from the intelligence community for us. And here’s a description of the interpretive process:

The senior administration official said the process had created "uncomfortable positions" for the White House because of debates over what constitutes "satisfactory progress."

During internal White House discussion of a July interim report, some officials urged the administration to claim progress in policy areas such as legislation to divvy up Iraq’s oil Read more →

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Photographs

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If you haven’t already, go read Jane Mayer’s article on our methods of torture. The short version: we’re using psychological methods to impose "learned helplessness" and dependency, and as a result, we’re getting some intelligence, a whole lot of garbage, and we’re turning our own interrogators into moral zombies.

I wanted to focus on one aspect of the calculated humiliation she describes:

A former member of a C.I.A. transport team has described the “takeout”of prisoners as a carefully choreographed twenty-minute routine, duringwhich a suspect was hog-tied, stripped naked, photographed, hooded,sedated with anal suppositories, placed in diapers, and transported byplane to a secret location.

[snip]

The interrogation became a process not just of getting information butof utterly subordinating the detainee through humiliation.” The formerC.I.A. officer confirmed that the agency frequently photographed theprisoners naked, “because it’s demoralizing.” The person involved inthe Council of Europe inquiry said that photos were also part of theC.I.A.’s quality-control process. They were passed back to caseofficers for review. [my emphasis]

Part of the very calculating treatment we give these detainees is photographing them, both to humiliate them and for "quality-control." (Quality control of what? Is this like glorified meat inspection?)

I wanted to call attention to these passages because of the dust-up Read more →

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Well, Of Course

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Holden asks:

They’re just thinking of this now?

U.S.military intelligence officials are urgently assessing how securePakistan’s nuclear weapons would be in the event President Gen. PervezMusharraf were replaced as the nation’s leader, CNN has learned.

Key questions in the assessment include who would control Pakistan’s nuclear weapons after a shift in power.

[snip]

The United States has full knowledge about the location of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, according to the U.S. assessment.

Butthe key questions, officials say, are what would happen and who wouldcontrol the weapons in the hours after any change in government in caseMusharraf were killed or overthrown.

Musharraf controls theloyalty of the commanders and senior officials in charge of the nuclearprogram, but those loyalties could shift at any point, officials say.

TheUnited States is not certain who might start controlling nuclear launchcodes and weapons if that shift in power were to happen.

There isalso a growing understanding according to the U.S. analysis thatMusharraf’s control over the military remains limited to certain topcommanders and units, raising worries about whether he can maintaincontrol over the long term.

Well, of course, Holden. They’ve been otherwise occupied. Up until the end of June, after all, they were very busy looking for Iraq’s WMDs.

Though, for a less snarky look at this issue, Arms Control Wonk discusses the difference between knowing where the nukes are and what will happen to them if anything should happen to Musharraf.

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Crappy Product, Crappy Marketing Company

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As many of you know, I used to do work for the auto industry. And I can assure you, the single most important thing Ford could do to turn itself around would be to fire its long-time ad company, J Walter Thompson. Everyone knows it, too, in all parts of the world. From local to regional to global, folks in the auto industry know that JWT keeps designing Ford crappy campaigns based on one generic consumer, even though not all of Ford’s vehicles (and none of the vehicles with any growth potential) are really targetted toward that one generic consumer. And just as awful, JWT does much of the consumer analysis that leads Ford to keep designing cars for non-existent consumers. Sad thing is, the JWT contract is the only one that seems to escape evaluation, even as all the auto companies strip one after another contractor of their contract. For some reason, Ford is committed to JWT, even if it means failure as a company.

I couldn’t help but think of Ford and JWT as I skimmed the RAND study on how to brand the Iraq War more effectively. I got the same sinking feeling as I have gotten about Read more →

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