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Obama Campaign’s Take: We’re Doing What We Need To

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I’m listening to an Obama campaign conference call on the state of the race. Some of the eye-popping details:

Sporadic and First-Time Voters Are Voting Early

I’ve been focusing on the early voting numbers, though the McCain team has questioned whether or not the high Democratic turnout really just amounts to voters who would have voted anyway coming out early.

No.

The Obama campaign is quite confident that at least one fifth of these early voters are either first-time or sporadic Democratic voters–basically, the kind of voters that push outcomes into Gallup’s more Obama-friendly turnout model.

That optimism was particularly true of Florida, where David Plouffe thinks that a quarter of sporadic Democratic voters–people who didn’t vote in 2004–have already voted. He also noted that Florida has one of the largest pools of sporadic voters.

Hmm, I guess that’s another reason to bring Clinton and Gore to the sunshine state.

Arizona

Not surprisingly, there were a number of questions about Arizona.

Plouffe didn’t commit to going to Arizona (sorry bmaz)–when referring to Saturday’s trip out west, he said only that they were going "back out west" with no details about locations (though the campaign has already released the schedule showing a Henderson, NV event followed by a Pueblo, CO event). He also said that, with the big map Obama has, it’s really tough getting every place they need to go. If they had "a few more days," he suggested, he might have made a visit to Arizona. 

He attributed the closing race in Arizona–indeed, Obama’s strength in the west more generally–to two things: western Latinos supporting Obama in large numbers, and suburban independents leaning towards Obama. (Note, he said of CO’s almost equally split early voting margins that he thought many of the Independents had voted Obama.) He also said, specifically, that a lot of sporadic voters in Maricopa (Phoenix metro area) are voting Obama. 

He emphasized the closing polls are real and that they might be able to pull this off.

Finally, Plouffe was very careful to note that the campaign’s new advertising in Arizona is all positive; I guess he’s heard McCain yell "get off my lawn" enough time he doesn’t want to infuriate him. 

Georgia and North Dakota

It was pretty funny. Plouffe also got asked about Georgia a lot. Every time he answered about these late-breaking states, Plouffe was careful to mention North Dakota, in addition to Arizona and Georgia (no one mentioned Louisiana, which had a poll yesterday showing a close race as well). Read more →

Rahm-ors

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The AP is out with a story that Rahm Emmanuel has been offered the position of Chief of Staff in an Obama Administration.

Barack Obama’s campaign has approached Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel about possibly serving as White House chief of staff, officials said Thursday as the marathon presidential race entered its final, frenzied stretch with a Democratic tilt.

[snip]

The Democrats who described the Obama campaign’s approach to Emanuel spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to be quoted by name. An aide to the congressman, Sarah Feinberg, said in an e-mail that he "has not been contacted to take a job in an administration that does not yet exist. Everyone is focused on Election Day, as they should be. "

I think this is, at the very least, overblown not just for the reasons Ambinder lays out:

… but if Obama has the made decision, he wouldn’t tell anyone on his campaign, he would tell people on his transition team — and they’re not speaking to the press. People on the campaign say that Obama hasn’t had a free hour to concentrate about this stuff — which they would say, of course, but the sources are genuinely reliable. Surely he has an idea or two in mind, and maybe it would make sense to give the people he’s thinking about asking to serve a heads up.  It’s hard to say no to a president.

Emanuel has been a regular behind-the-scenes adviser to Obama, knows everyone in Washington, is one of the better communicators in the party, and certainly is qualified for the post.  But he’s … got a very strong personality that doesn’t exactly jibe with the tone Obama likes to set for his endeavors. (David Plouffe and Rahm Emanuel could not be more different in temperament.)  He also has a young family, and he has not moved them to Washington, and his hours as chief of staff would be hellish.

Incidentally: nothing would be more devastating to Emanuel’s chances than a public story like this, one that could allow Republicans to use Emanuel’s brass-knuckle reputation against Obama a few days before the election. [snip]

Rahm has a practice of starting rumors about himself Read more →

Clinton-Gore ’08

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bill_clinton_al_gore.jpgI saw someone on TV (sorry–I have no idea who it was or even what channel it was on) who argued that the Obama-Clinton appearance yesterday was more important for Bill than for Obama. Sure, the appearance was about reassuring everyone that there are no more (stated) hard feelings about the primary. But it also gave Bill an opportunity to bask in the glow of Obama’s goodwill, perhaps to exorcise some of the bad feelings from South Carolina.

I would add to this insight that the timing is key. Obama didn’t campaign with Bill until polls show him with a big lead, particularly in Electoral College Votes. That is, Obama invited Bill to campaign with him after it became highly probable that he will win; though Bill has campaigned for the campaign already (with Biden in PA, in VA, and in AR), if Obama wins it will be his win, on his own merits. Which is, I guess, where the room for this gesture comes from.

Don’t get me wrong–Bill no doubt will help Obama build a bigger lead in FL, which is currently the closest of the big swing states (even OH shows a bigger Obama lead!). But as for the election–rather than the state–Bill has been helpful, but by no means instrumental to Obama’s success thus far. (I’m particularly reminded of all the complaints that Gore didn’t invite Clinton to campaign with him in 2000.) At that level, then, it seems as much symbolic as anything else.

And now we have news that Gore himself (with Tipper) will campaign for Obama in FL.

Gore will appear at "Vote for Change" rallies in West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, according to a release just issued by the Obama campaign.

Gore returns (on Halloween, no less) to the land of butterfly ballots, hanging chads and a 36-day national recount drama that determined Gore lost and George W. Bush won the 2000 presidential election.

Talk about symbolism! Gore, like Clinton, has campaigned for Obama before (for example, at Gore’s endorsement of Obama in Detroit earlier this year, which I screwed up royally by missing). But at a time when the outcome of the race–but not Florida–seems more and more favorable to Obama, Obama has invited Gore to the scene of the 2000 crime. West Palm Beach and Broward County, no less!

Read more →

BREAKING!!! Hillary to Deliver Barack Obama’s Inaugural Address

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In yet another piece of evidence that Barack Obama will change how things are done in Washington, it appears that Obama will ask his former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination to deliver the inaugural address in January.

So says the NYT, in a story scoping out what color drapes Michelle has planned for the family quarters at the White House.

His transition chief has even drafted a sample Inaugural Address.

[snip]

Mr. Obama’s transition team is led by a former White House chief of staff, John D. Podesta, who has been preparing for the task at the research organization he runs, the Center for American Progress, since long before it was clear who would win his party’s nomination.

[snip]

Mr. Podesta has been mapping out the transition so systematically that he has already written a draft Inaugural Address for Mr. Obama, which he published this summer in a book called “The Power of Progress.” The speech calls for rebuilding a “grand alliance” with the rest of the world, bringing troops home from Iraq, recommitting to the war in Afghanistan, cutting poverty in half in 10 years and reducing greenhouse gases 80 percent by 2050.

The Grey Lady must have meant to imply that Hillary will deliver this address for Obama, since Podesta wrote that speech back when he was working to elect Hillary president. 

It’s a great idea, too, for Obama to have one of his biggest rivals to deliver his inauguration speech. After all, Obama is known for writing dull, uninspiring speeches; he can’t deliver them very well, either.  Thankfully, Podesta will save us from this kind of history-making speech and allow us all to get back to watching football. Or organizing our sock drawers–whatever it was we were doing before we started fighting to get our country back. 

In other news, Obama will appoint John McCain his Secretary of Treasury and Randy Scheunemann his Secretary of State.

Obama on Pollan

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Remember the Michael Pollan article offering suggestions on agriculture to the next President? I pulled out these bits (and more on greenhouse gases and ag), which I thought were particularly important.

After cars, the food system uses more fossil fuel than any other sector of the economy — 19 percent. And while the experts disagree about the exact amount, the way we feed ourselves contributes more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere than anything else we do — as much as 37 percent, according to one study.

Here’s Obama describing what he took away from that article.

I was just reading an article in the New York Times by Michael Pollen about food and the fact that our entire agricultural system is built on cheap oil. As a consequence, our agriculture sector actually is contributing more greenhouse gases than our transportation sector. And in the mean time, it’s creating monocultures that are vulnerable to national security threats, are now vulnerable to sky-high food prices or crashes in food prices, huge swings in commodity prices, and are partly responsible for the explosion in our healthcare costs because they’re contributing to type 2 diabetes, stroke and heart disease, obesity, all the things that are driving our huge explosion in healthcare costs. That’s just one sector of the economy. You think about the same thing is true on transportation. The same thing is true on how we construct our buildings. The same is true across the board.

In find his take fascinating for several reasons. One, he read it. Two, he didn’t acknowledge that Pollan styled this article as a letter to the next President; Obama took advice intended for him, but he pitched it as a more general article (Would he have read it if Pollan had not addressed it to him, I wonder? Did Obama want to hide that addressing calling articles "letters" to the next President make it more likely he’ll read them?). Three, he read it closely enough to synthesize a great deal of the content of the article. And four, he synthesized the article into his more general understanding of the economy–applying the lessons from this one article more generally.

Klein should have asked whether Obama plans on having one meatless day at the White House each week. 

Let the Governance Begin

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Remember how, during the 2000 recount, the Bush team made a visible show of beginning their transition to power? That was about the last smart thing the Bush Administration did. It got people accustomed to the idea of Bush governing even before SCOTUS cast its vote.

In a similar move, Obama is beginning to tailor his events to show how he will govern, rather than just telling how he will do so. I strongly suspect that’s what his half-hour TV buy will do next week–it’ll look and feel like a presidential press conference, and he will presumably introduce what he would like to be included in the post-election stimulus package and beyond to fix the economy.

Similarly, at a campaign event in Florida today, Obama is showing the kinds of people he will listen to–and how he will listen (CNN stream here).  Obama has brought a bunch of swing state governors (Strickland, Granholm, Richardson–and I think Ritter, too), Paul Volcker, Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and a small business owner to discuss how they would foster job growth. Sure, Obama got to make a speech about how he would invest in new jobs. And sure, most of the speakers reinforced Obama’s own policies (though, as an example, Richardson is disagreeing with him now, and telling him to ditch NCLB). But it puts Obama in the role he will be in–guiding the discussion of a lot of experts and listening. And he gets to make cracks like this:

I’m going to show the kind of leadership I’m gonna show in the White House. Anyone who wants to can take off their jackets. It’s really warm in here. This is how we’re going to do things in the White House–use some common sense.

All of which provides Obama with an opportunity to further ease the concerns of people who like Obama, but are just not yet comfortable enough he’s got the experience to be President.

To be honest, both of these events (the half hour presser and this jobs conference) are great politics. The presser gives Obama one last opportunity to get a bump from people seeing him and liking his calm on TV. This jobs conference pitches to a number of swing states–Granholm’s Michigan, Strickland’s Ohio, Richardson’s New Mexico, and Ritter’s Colorado. At the same time, it builds the pressure on Charlie Crist for his lukewarm support for McCain, even while providing a new twist on a campaign rally in Florida; in particular, Obama keeps bringing the general points back to issues that apply to Florida.

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The Powell Endorsement

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As reported, Colin Powell just endorsed Obama, calling him a "transformational figure." He listed several reasons for his choice:

  • Obama’s response to the economic meltdown
  • Obama’s ability to reach all classes, races, and parties
  • Obama’s rhetorical ability and his substance
  • McCain’s erratic response to the economic crisis
  • Palin’s lack of preparedness for the Presidency
  • McCain’s smears
  • The wingnuttia of the Republican Party
  • The danger of two more conservatives on SCOTUS (he’s probably thinking about all the anti-torture decisions)
  • The attacks on Muslims (he mentions a Muslim woman burying her son in Arlington)–this was one of the most powerful parts of the endorsement

Just as interesting was what Powell had to say in a short availability after his appearance on MTP. His last question addressed the McCain campaign smears again. He called out Michelle Bachmann on her McCarthyist rant. Also, Powell made a really great defense of Obama’s tax policy, pointing out that all tax policy involves redistribution of wealth, it’s just a question of where it gets redistributed; he also pointed out that most people get their taxes back by using the services government provides. 

Say what you will about the value of Colin Powell’s endorsement. But whether you want it or not, please accept the importance in Powell calling out the McCain smears and attacks on Obama and America’s Muslims.

The Secret Service Eliminates Violent Racism!!!

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Using the same techniques the Bush Administration used to eliminate torture and at Gitmo and vulnerabilities that might make easy targets for terrorists: by refusing to let journalists see them (h/t TP).

In cooperation with the Palin campaign, [the Secret Service have] started preventing reporters from leaving the press section to interview people in the crowd. This is a serious violation of their duty — protecting the protectee — and gets into assisting with the political aspirations of the candidate. It also often makes it impossible for reporters to get into the crowd to question the people who say vulgar things. So they prevent reporters from getting near the people doing the shouting, then claim it’s unfounded because the reporters can’t get close enough to identify the person. [my emphasis]

Who do you think came up with this solution first? The Secret Service, which I guess prefers just pretending that these rabid racists aren’t being incited? Or Sarah Palin, who realized the exposure of her ugly side was hurting her chances for 2012?

Yes

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This morning I asked,

Did McCain Reverse Course on His New Economic Plan to Wait for Obama’s New Plan?

 It appears the answer to that question is, "yes."

On a conference call just now, McCain policy adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin said that Sen. McCain would address the economy tomorrow — "he never intended to speak about the economy today," according to Holtz-Eakin.

"He will in fact talk about economic conditions and those harmed most deeply harmed by them," Holtz-Eakin said.

And he’ll unveil new proposals.

I guess McCain just needed to take a peek at what the smart kid had answered before he finished his own take-home test.

John McCain’s Secrets

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Under the premise that Obama has not been fully forthcoming, John McCain is raising on Bill Ayers every chance he gets (except to Obama’s face).

GIBSON: Do you think the relationship with Ayers is a critical issue in this campaign or factor in this campaign?

MCCAIN: I think it’s a factor about Sen. Obama’s candor and truthfulness with the American people. That’s what I think it’s about. As I say, I don’t care about Mr. Ayers who on Sept. 11, 2001 said he wished he’d have bombed more. I don’t care about that. I care about him being truthful about his relationship with him. And Americans will care.

But here are some of the things that John McCain hasn’t been forthcoming about himself.

There’s his own relationship with terrorists–McCain didn’t disclose his ties to the Contra-funding US Council for World Freedom.

As a freshman congressman in the early 1980s, John McCain did not disclose his connections to a controversial group that was implicated in a secretive plot to supply arms to Nicaraguan militia groups during the Iran-Contra affair.

McCain did not list his service on the board of the U.S. Council for World Freedom on mandatory congressional disclosure forms asking about positions he held outside government.

McCain’s aides said he wasn’t required to report the affiliation.

[snip]

McCain joined the board of the U.S. Council soon after Singlaub founded it in McCain’s adopted hometown of Phoenix in November 1981 as the U.S. branch of the World Anti-Communist League. The league billed itself as a supporter of "pro-Democratic resistance movements fighting communist totalitarianism," but it had also been branded by critics as a haven for extremists, racists and anti-Semites.

[snip]

A review of the personal financial disclosure forms McCain filed after his election to the U.S. House in 1982 show that he did not list the group in the section of his 1982, 1983 and 1984 reports in which he was required to disclose all positions he held outside of government.

The instructions on the form require filers to report "the identity of all positions held on or before the date of the filing during the current calendar year as an officer, director, trustee, partner, proprietor, representative, employee, or consultant of any corporation, firm, partnership, or other business enterprise, any nonprofit organization, any labor organization, or any educational or other institution." [my emphasis]

And despite his noted big money gambling habit, McCain has never reported any gambling winnings on his Senate disclosure reports. 

Today, CREW filed a complaint against Senator John McCain (R-AZ) with the Senate Ethics Committee.  Read more →