The Cost of Doing Business

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Walter Pincus analyzes one of the contracts that Henry Waxman is looking at to determine how much more Blackwater’s mercenaries are costing us than a law-abiding US soldier. Pincus notes that Petraeus makes roughly $493 a day. This doesn’t appear to include benefits; figuring benes make up 1/3 of someone’s compensation–which in the private sector is often about right, but in the military is probably too small–then Petraeus might cost us, the taxpayer, $750 a day. That’s for our top commander in Iraq, $750 a day.

And here’s how a Blackwater employee gets charged:

Average day-to-day personnel, $600/day salary paid by Blackwater
Blackwater bills Regency, $850/day for operators
Regency bills ESS an average of $1100/day for all types of employees
ESS charges Halliburton which charges the US based on a per-meal basis (I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Halliburton has some profit worked into this)

A married Iraqi sergeant serving in Iraq makes about $170/day [updated for clarity].

No wonder Bush needs another $200 billion. He’s outsourcing the actual fighting of this war to forces that cost six times as much as it would if our military still did the fighting.

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Counterproliferationinsurgency

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I’ve got two small points to make about Sy Hersh’s latest, which has been covered generally just about everywhere.

What had been presented primarily as a counter-proliferation mission has been reconceived as counterterrorism.

The shift in targeting reflects three developments. First, thePresident and his senior advisers have concluded that their campaign toconvince the American public that Iran poses an imminent nuclear threathas failed (unlike a similar campaign before the Iraq war), and that asa result there is not enough popular support for a major bombingcampaign. The second development is that the White House has come toterms, in private, with the general consensus of the Americanintelligence community that Iran is at least five years away fromobtaining a bomb. And, finally, there has been a growing recognition inWashington and throughout the Middle East that Iran is emerging as thegeopolitical winner of the war in Iraq.

This, it seems to me, invites a logical approach to combating this idiocy. The Bushies are admitting, at least among themselves, that their "laptop of death" campaign (and other silliness) didn’t work. It didn’t work, of course, because it was manufactured bullshit. From the line, " the White House has come toterms, in private, with the general consensus of the Read more →

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Afri … um EuroAfriCom

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Scout prime has been tracking something I’ve been watching, too. The new AfriCom military command? Well, the entire continent of Africa has told us, "no, thanks."

The Pentagon’s plan to create a US military command based in Africahave hit a wall of hostility from governments in the region reluctantto associate themselves with the Bush administration’s "war on terror"and fearful of American intervention.

A US delegation led by RyanHenry, principal deputy under-secretary of defence for policy, returnedto Washington last week with little to show for consultations withdefence and foreign ministry officials in Algeria, Morocco, Libya,Egypt, Djibouti and with the African Union (AU). An earlier round ofconsultations with sub-Saharan countries on providing secure facilitiesand local back-up for the new command, to be known as Africom and dueto be operational by September next year, was similarly inconclusive.

The Libyan and Algerian governments reportedly told Mr Henry that theywould play no part in hosting Africom. Despite recently improvedrelations with the US, both said they would urge their neighbours notto do so, either. Even Morocco, considered Washington’s closest northAfrican ally, indicated it did not welcome a permanent militarypresence on its soil.

"We’vegot a big image problem down there," a state department officialadmitted. "Public opinion is really against getting into Read more →

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The Price Tag for War

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Does this look like a budget request for a war that is going to end any time soon?

Gates says another $42 billion is needed to cover additional requirements. The extra money includes:

  • $11 billion to field another 7,000 MRAP vehicles in addition to the 8,000 already planned;
  • $9 billion to reconstitute equipment and technology;
  • $6 billion for training and equipment of troops;
  • $1 billion to improve U.S. facilities in the region and consolidate bases in Iraq; and
  • $1 billion to train and equip Iraqi security forces.

It seems to me that "consolidating bases" is the kind of thing you do if you’re planning to stick around. Ditto doubling the number of MRAP vehicles. While they should have been ordered about 4 years ago, ordering them now suggests we’re going to be needing them over the next five years. And note the reference to improving "US facilities in the region." Where? Why? Do those facilities happen to facilitate bombing Iran?

This request ought to be regarded as what it is: a budget request for an imperial outpost. I’m all in favor of reconstituting the equipment and technology that Bush’s war has broken. But defunding the empire is quite different than defunding the troops.

Update: From Congress Daily, part of Read more →

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The Real Reason

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I’ve got a different interpretation of the news–via ThinkProgress–that Bush is advising Democrats to keep their options open to sustain the permanent war in Iraq.

Bush has “been urging candidates: ‘Don’t get yourself too locked inwhere you stand right now. If you end up sitting where I sit, thingscould change dramatically.’ ”

Bolten said Bush wants enoughcontinuity in his Iraq policy that “even a Democratic president wouldbe in a position to sustain a legitimate presence there.”

“Especiallyif it’s a Democrat,” the chief of staff told The Examiner in his WestWing office. “He wants to create the conditions where a Democrat notonly will have the leeway, but the obligation to see it out.”

Rather than some Rovian gimmick to gain advantage in the presidential election, I think this just suggests that Bush believes that when a Democrat becomes President in 2009 (and I do think this suggests he thinks it highly likely), she will review intelligence and get advice and realize that the US must stay in Iraq. Here’s the logic Bush offers.

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The Upcoming Resolution for War on Iran

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Reading through the Kyl-Lieberman amendment (hat tip Laura Rozen), you’d think that the Ryan-Crocker dog and pony show was designed to justify war on Iran. And you might be right. The amendment cites four Petraeus statements about Iranian influence in Iraq and four Crocker statements. And intersperses those with cherry-picked citations to create the illusion that Iran is the only outside force causing trouble in Iran. For example, when they cite Ahmadinejad talking about the vacuum US failure will leave in Iraq…

"The political power of the occupiers is collapsing rapidly," MrAhmadinejad said at a press conference in Tehran. "Soon, we will see ahuge power vacuum in the region. Of course, we are prepared to fill thegap,

They neglect to mention that Ahmadinejad nods to Saudi Arabia and Iraq in his statement…

… with the help of neighbours and regional friends like SaudiArabia, and with the help of the Iraqi nation."

(A detail that even Fox managed to include.) And when they cite from the NIE’s list of neighboring countries likely to make trouble in Iraq…

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No Shiite Sherlock

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Kudos to Spencer Ackerman for FOIAing the rationale behind General Petraeus’ Magic September numbers out of the military. Generally, Ackerman explains that the numbers for sectarian violence don’t count attacks on same sect people or on the Iraqi government.

Interestingly, attacks against "same-sect civilians," U.S. forces, theIraqi government or Iraqi security forces "are excluded and not definedas sectarian attacks." So even though Sunni insurgent groups loathe theShiite-controlled government, insurgent attacks on it aren’t consideredsectarian violence.

And he notes that the kind of violence that is quickly homogenizing Baghdad’s neighborhoods–executions, murders, and kidnapping–may not count either, if the Shiite officials doing the counting don’t want it to count.

For executions, murders and kidnappings — situations in whichsectarianism may be difficult to determine — MNF-I says it uses "hostnation" reporting in addition to its own. Many media andnon-governmental organizations consider information on casualtiesreleased by the Iraqi ministries to be self-serving, misleading orcontradictory.

Some important kinds of violence aren’t included in this total: as Ackerman points out, Sunni attacks on Shiite policemen wouldn’t count, organized Shiite violence that the government likes to pretend is policing doesn’t count, and Shiite-Shiite violence, which is increasing in the South, doesn’t count.

That’s part of the gimmick of calling this ethno-sectarian violence, Read more →

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The Israeli Bombing Run in Syria

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Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright have the most comprehensive story, to date, on the mysterious bombing run Israel did in Syria on September 6. They confirm the story that had been floating around–that Israel’s target was a suspected nuclear site, supplied by North Korea. The story is interesting mostly for the exchange of intelligence it portrays. The Israelis first came with intelligence, yet Bush was chill to the attack.

Israel’s decision to attack Syria on Sept. 6, bombing a suspected nuclear site set up in apparent collaboration with North Korea, came after Israel shared intelligence with President Bush this summer indicating that North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, U.S. government sources said.

The Bush administration has not commented on the Israeli raid or theunderlying intelligence. Although the administration was deeplytroubled by Israel’s assertion that North Korea was assisting thenuclear ambitions of a country closely linked with Iran, sources said, the White Houseopted against an immediate response because of concerns it wouldundermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea toabandon its nuclear program.

But then the US corroborated the Israeli intelligence, and the attack went forward.

Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have providedIsrael with some corroboration of the original intelligence beforeIsrael proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in thedead of night to minimize possible casualties, the sources said.

The article raises doubts about the quality of the Israeli intelligence (and who knows whether our intelligence–supposedly used to corroborate the Israeli intelligence–has gotten any better since the Iraq debacle).

The quality of the Israeli intelligence, the extent of North Koreanassistance and the seriousness of the Syrian effort are uncertain,raising the possibility that North Korea was merely unloading items itno longer needed.

Something’s still stinky about this raid. The creepy silence on all parts suggests there was some there there–but perhaps not what Israel claimed it was. I’m actually wondering whether it doesn’t involve a fifth player–perhaps China–that no one is talking about.

 

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The 1% Leadership Solution

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scout prime catches Michael Chertoff looking like the self-important incompetent he is. She finds that:

  • Michael Chertoff has a blog. Yes, that’s right folks. And his blog is called How to Kill a City. No wait. I’m sorry. It’s called Leadership Journal.
  • Faced with yet another intractable crisis, the Bush Administration is doing what it always does. Name a Czar!!

Not to worry. There has never been a problem that could not be solved by flinging a good ‘ol Czar or 2 at it…

We have a moral obligation to help the people of Iraq, especially thoseindividuals assisting coalition forces and putting their own lives atrisk. But we also have a responsibility to prevent terrorists frominfiltrating our borders. Our new Iraqi Refugee Czars will make sure wemeet both of these objectives, and that our re-settlement process movesforward swiftly and with our highest priority. We welcome your commentsand appreciate your time. (scout prime’s emphasis)

  • Chertoff is celebrating the success of the US in resettling 940 Iraqis, which works out to be just a teeny fraction of one percent of the 1.8 million Iraqis who are now refugees.

The Bush Administration folks. Where we can look back with longing on the days of a Gentleman’s C.

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Diplomatic Convoys

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Two days ago Iraq said it was kicking Eric Prince and his mercenary thugs out of Iraq. Yesterday, Iraq said it would review all the mercenary thugs (and legitimate security entities) to see if they could stay in Iraq. And today, the US announces a curb on land-based civilian travel.

The United States on Tuesday suspended all land travel by U.S. diplomats and other civilian officials throughout Iraq,except in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone. The move follows aweekend incident involving private security guards protecting adiplomatic convoy in which a number of Iraqi civilians were killed.

In a notice sent to Americans in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdadsaid it had taken the step to review the security of its personnel andpossible increased threats to those leaving the Green Zone whileaccompanied by such security details.

"In light of a serious security incident involving a U.S. embassyprotective detail in the Mansour District of Baghdad, the embassy hassuspended official U.S. government civilian ground movements outsidethe International Zone (IZ) and throughout Iraq," the notice said.

Question: Is this an reflection of rising violence against American personnel, as some have suggested? Or is it an attempt to forestall the conflict with the Iraqi government over whether Blackwater and others Read more →

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