Constitutional Cope in the Time of Texas Hold’em

There’s a coping mechanism I often see that involves stating we will get justice against the perpetrators of fascism once we “win.” It goes something like, “when we win we’ll hold all of these ICE goons accountable.”

I get the urge: you’re feeling outraged and helpless right now and one way to feel better — one way to affirm justice — is to imagine a more just time in the future. I get the import of accountability.

I say it’s a coping mechanism for several reasons. Making the statement is an act of obscuring how difficult or, in this case, almost impossible delivering justice to these particular people are. Those ICE goons? Most of what they’re doing is currently legal or at least covered by qualified immunity. To the extent we ever held torturers accountable, they were low-level schlubs and not the architects who successfully hid behind legal advice. So if you want to hold the ICE goons accountable, you’re going to have to figure out how to do something far bigger than just winning an election.

And making the statement often serves as a substitute for doing the work — any work — to actually win.

If the ICE goons make you feel helpless — which after all is the intent — why not search out one of the efforts to resist, like the ones Michelle Goldberg described here?

[I]f Los Angeles is a testing ground for mass deportation, it’s also a place to see how the resistance is evolving. Though there have been some big anti-Trump marches this year, many of those most horrified by this administration are looking for more immediate, tangible ways to thwart it. The movement against ICE in Los Angeles — one that is starting to take root, in different forms, in cities like New York — is part of a growing shift from symbolic protest to direct action.

It may be no match for the Trumpian leviathan. But it can protect a few people who might otherwise get swept into the black hole of the administration’s deportation machine. And in the most optimistic scenario, it could be a foundation for a new, nationwide opposition movement.

[snip]

With ICE increasingly seen as the front line of a growing police state, people all over the country are looking for ways to stand up to it. In New York, ICE arrests seem to be concentrated in immigration courts, where agents have been snatching people after their asylum hearings, even when judges ask them to come back for further proceedings. Activists, in turn, are showing up at the courts to try to provide whatever support to immigrants they can. They hand out fliers — languages include Spanish, French, Urdu, Punjabi and Mandarin — informing immigrants of the few rights they have. They collect emergency contacts and immigration ID numbers so that when people are arrested, someone can inform their loved ones and track them through the detention system.

When the hearings are over, the volunteers try, often in vain, to escort the immigrants past intimidating groups of masked, armed ICE agents to the elevators and onto the street. That’s what New York City’s comptroller, Brad Lander, was doing when he was arrested in June.

As Goldberg notes, that way to stop feeling helpless about your neighbor being kidnapped can also build the kind of network that we need in order to win, a network that not coincidentally is not conceived in terms of political party.

There’s another version of this that involves writing entire columns akin to the comment about the ICE goons: What will Democrats do, will they do it, if we win?

With little consideration of how we win or what a win is.

Two examples from yesterday demonstrate the type — but also point to where the discussion could be, and why.

After reviewing two of the horrible events of the last day — the frivolous attack on James Boasberg and the confirmation of Emil Bove — JV Last inexplicably pitches an entire post that assumes Dems are feckless but also imagines what we should do if those feckless Dems manage to win in spite of their fecklessness.

I have some questions for Democrats, and for you, that I hope you’ll discuss in the comments. I want a real conversation about wisdom because it’s possible that I’m a few degrees too hot on this stuff.

  • Should the next Democratic president fire FBI Director Kash Patel, even if there is no immediate pretext? Why or why not?
  • Should a Democratic Congress attempt to remove Bove from the bench since he apparently perjured himself during his confirmation hearing?
  • Should a Democratic president pressure universities to adopt policies friendly to liberalism and punish universities that caved to the Trump administration, in order to establish that collaboration comes with a cost?
  • Should a future Democratic administration pursue all available modes of accountability for federal agents who broke the law under the Trump administration by—just as a for-instance—filing false charges against innocent civilians?

Or should Democrats who gain power in the future decide that it’s better to focus on kitchen-table issues. To work with Republicans to pass bipartisan legislation that impacts Real People’s Lives.

Offering advice for a potential 2026 candidate, and so imagining how not to be feckless as a candidate, Dan Froomkin adopts a more optimistic stance, offering a 10-point plan of what to do if Dems do win.

Someone I know who is thinking about working for a primary campaign in the fall asked me the other day what I would want to see in a 2026 congressional candidate.

And from my perspective covering the resistance, my answer was clear: I want to see some fight.

My view is that if Democrats want to harness the energy of the resistance in the 2026 elections, they need to start talking now about how to stymie Trump as much as possible in the short term and how to undo the damage he has wrought in the long term.

I’m honestly not so clear myself on the short term. As long as Trump is president, given his veto power, it seems to me it will be impossible to pursue a positive legislative agenda even if Democrats win both chambers. And if Trump is willing to hold the country hostage, which he is, Democrats might even have to make some concessions simply to keep the government functioning at all. Does anyone have any thoughts about the best course? Please share them with me.

I do know that a Democratic House majority starting in 2027 could aggressively use subpoena power to fully investigate the many abuses committed by this administration, setting the stage for reforms to come. Every candidate ought to make that a solemn vow.

As for the long term, candidates should enthusiastically address the need to restore sanity and good government to the country after Trump is gone.

I’d like to see people campaign on something along the lines of a 10-point plan. And my first draft is something like this:

  1. Restore the rule of law. This includes rebuilding a devastated and defiled Justice Department, prosecuting the rampant law-breaking of the Trump era, and expanding the Supreme Court.
  2. Stop mass deportations. That includes defunding ICE, closing concentration camps, restoring temporary protected status, respecting asylum claims, ending to the harassment of people on visas, and welcoming more international students.
  3. Revive the civil service. That means hiring back tens of thousands of workers who were driven out, undoing organizational changes, reestablishing the tradition of a nonpartisan bureaucracy.

I read these, and then I read the Texas gerrymander plans that aim to turn Democrats into a permanent minority, and wonder, what the fuck are we doing here, people?

You need to find a way to ensure there will be some kind of real representation left, you need to find some way to ensure martial law like Trump tested in Los Angeles doesn’t disrupt elections, you need to figure out what the fuck DOJ is doing by demanding election rolls from every state before you can even think about what we do if Democrats win in 2026.

Even the question of retaliating against the Texas gerrymander — which would involve rolling back efforts that have made states more democratic — for short term survival is not an easy one (as Semafor lays out).

Beyond the difficult political problems, gerrymandering is at the core of partisan and racial polarization that is Trump’s magic sauce. This is a fight not just about whether Republicans can insulate themselves from accountability for the wildly unpopular policies they’ve rubber stamped in service of their liege Donald Trump. It’s a fight over whether Americans can find common ground with their neighbors.

Without that — without finding some way to break through the polarization that Republicans use to demonize Democrats and people of color and in so doing blinding their followers to the pain they’re imposing on them, the followers — you will not defeat fascism.

Which is why I think Last and Froomkin aren’t thinking big enough, and in the process aren’t really addressing the problem.

Fire Kash? No brainer. But the problem isn’t Kash, per se. It’s that in the zero sum game of polarization, right wingers are wielding “justice” as a political tool, all the while duping their rubes into believing Democrats did that, because they tried to hold a privileged white billionaire accountable for his actions. Jim Comey did stupid things because he was afraid right wing FBI agents would leak and make him — make FBI — look bad. Chris Wray refused to defend what happened before he arrived, making it easy to spin conspiracy theories about how Donald Trump was the one unfairly treated during an 2016 election in which FBI may have decisively hurt Hillary. At least Kash’s rabid partisanship has the potential of backfiring — certainly it has so far on Epstein — because he’ll never be able to deliver on the promise of children’s books.

Ending mass deportations, restoring civil service? Of course. But why conceive of that as a simple reversal, a restoration of the protections that right wingers easily hijacked? What would it take to provide real job security for the weather forecasters and cancer researchers if we ever get to bring them back? And should we purge FBI and ICE of all those leakers and goons first, or is there a review of Trump’s abuses provides a way to fix past problems? What does “restoring rule of law” mean when right wingers have embraced a mafia state? How do you restore faith in rule of law from both right and left, especially when the norms that provide the necessary foundation are gone?

There are a list of things that need to happen to address this: Dramatically curtail the Presidential pardon. Establish a way — a replacement for the failed experiment with Special Counsels — to hold the political accountable that is insulated from partisan chain of command. Eliminate the abuse of informants. We have barely begun to conceive of how much Trump has thrown out all rules prohibiting domestic spying, which provides an opportunity to rethink how to protect privacy in the age of dragnets (and how to safely disaggregate the data Trump is accumulating on one place). Why not take Trump’s debasement of FBI and supercharge of ICE as an impetus to rethink Federal law enforcement entirely and take all of it out of DHS, where it has far fewer rules? And yes, you’d have to do something about SCOTUS, but why stop at expanding SCOTUS instead of reconceiving of it, finding away to make it something other than the zero sum fight it has been for three decades?

Trump has destroyed the justice system — Trump has stolen rule of law from ordinary people, whether they’re Jeffrey Epstein’s victims, victims of his fraudster buddies he let off scot free, or American taxpayers whose shared national interest he has converted for political gain. He has replaced it with a spoils system that rewards loyalty. That makes the task of restoring it far harder, but it also provides an opportunity to show the cost of Trump’s corruption, and to pitch this as a fight against corruption, not Trump per se.

I’m not saying you’d be able to do this immediately with a House majority in 2026 or the White House in 2028. You wouldn’t, unless Trump precipitated a collapse so major that America is rebuilding as it struggles to feed its people, not at all an impossibility. But the reason Joe Biden, a man who enacted historic legislation with the thinnest of margins, failed is because the rising flood of fascism wiped all that away within weeks, even though Biden anticipated some of the means (like the attack on civil servants) Trump used to do that.

There are really better ways to fight fascism than focusing on what magical ponies we’ll ride if we “win.” But if you’re going to do that, consider what would need to happen to actually reverse the tide.

Update: As if on cue, The American Prospect has a thoughtful piece on what kind of reforms we could impose in the wake of Trump that might fix things. It focuses closely on the post-Watergate reforms.

A post-Trump legislative agenda could begin by reinforcing the post-Watergate laws and reaffirming the public purposes that motivated them. Congress could strengthen the enforcement provisions of the Impoundment Control Act. In light of the Supreme Court’s ruling about the president’s power to remove executive branch officials, Congress could put inspectors general out of the president’s reach and under its own protection as part of the Government Accountability Office, a congressional agency (although Trump has tried to control congressional agencies too).

Congress could also enact a new National Emergencies Act that would limit the ability of presidents to declare forever emergencies. In 1983, the Supreme Court struck down the provisions in the 1976 act that enabled a single chamber of Congress to withhold consent for an emergency’s continuance. Under the Court’s decision, Congress now must have a two-thirds majority in each house to overcome a presidential veto and end an emergency. As Josh Chafetz of Georgetown Law School suggested recently in an unpublished paper, a new Emergencies Act could—like the original 1976 act—terminate all existing emergencies and end lurking emergency powers in statutes that Congress no longer thinks necessary. Most important, it could establish new sunset provisions. Emergencies would end within a short period (perhaps 60 days) and be nonrenewable unless approved under expedited procedures by a joint resolution of Congress. Those provisions, as Chafetz argues, would afford presidents short-term powers in genuine emergencies but ensure that Congress retains the power to make lasting policy.

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Trump’s Emergency Emergency

Remember what I wrote on July 10, when Trump write a letter to Lula da Silva warning him of a 50% tariff?

I described that Trump was trying to impose the tariff on Brazil — largely because Brazil is prosecuting Trump’s coup counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro — without first declaring the emergency required under IEEPA, the legal authority on which he claimed he was relying.

As a reminder, the trade war Trump launched on April 2 purports to address an emergency created by trade deficits in goods (not services).

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2483), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,

[snip]

That claim seems to have been forgotten in discussion of the 50% tariff Trump just threatened to place on Brazil.

Trump barely focused on his claimed emergency in his letter — posted to Truth Social — to Lula da Silva. Rather, he mentioned:

  • The purported Witch Hunt against Jair Bolsonaro — the prosecution for Bolsonaro’s attempted coup — “that should end IMMEDIATELY!”
  • Efforts to regulate social media in Brazil (largely with the goal of investigating and cracking down on insurrection), which Trump called “hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market”

All that was in addition to (and before) the boilerplate language on goods included in the letter.

Mind you, that boilerplate would be nonsense in any case, because the US enjoys a trade surplus with Brazil. There could be no trade deficit emergency with Brazil because the US doesn’t have one.

Which is one of the points Lula noted in response (ironically, on Xitter). The US says the US has a trade surplus with Brazil.

In light of the public statement made by U.S. President Donald Trump on social media on the afternoon of Wednesday (9), it is important to highlight the following:

[snip]

The claim regarding a U.S. trade deficit in its commercial relationship with Brazil is inaccurate. Statistics from the U.S. government itself show a surplus of $410 billion in the trade of goods and services with Brazil over the past 15 years.

Therefore, any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil’s Economic Reciprocity Law.

Sovereignty, respect and the unwavering defense of the interests of the Brazilian people are the values that guide our relationship with the world.

Which leaves solely the complaints pertaining to coup accountability: that Brazil fined Xitter when it refused to comply with legal and investigative demands, as well as the requirement that it have a local representative (through whom Brazil would enforce the law), as well as the complaint that Brazil is holding Bolsonaro accountable for the same crime that Trump himself committed.

Well, Trump finally declared that Brazil’s prosecution of its coup conspirator threatens Trump — er, the United States.

As President of the United States, my highest duty is protecting the national security, foreign policy, and economy of this country. Recent policies, practices, and actions of the Government of Brazil threaten the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. Members of the Government of Brazil have taken actions that interfere with the economy of the United States, infringe the free expression rights of United States persons, violate human rights, and undermine the interest the United States has in protecting its citizens and companies. Members of the Government of Brazil are also politically persecuting a former President of Brazil, which is contributing to the deliberate breakdown in the rule of law in Brazil, to politically motivated intimidation in that country, and to human rights abuses.

As President of the United States, my highest duty is protecting the national security, foreign policy, and economy of this country. Recent policies, practices, and actions of the Government of Brazil threaten the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. Members of the Government of Brazil have taken actions that interfere with the economy of the United States, infringe the free expression rights of United States persons, violate human rights, and undermine the interest the United States has in protecting its citizens and companies. Members of the Government of Brazil are also politically persecuting a former President of Brazil, which is contributing to the deliberate breakdown in the rule of law in Brazil, to politically motivated intimidation in that country, and to human rights abuses.

These judicial actions, taken under the pretext of combatting “disinformation,” “fake news,” or “anti-democratic” or “hateful” content, endanger the economy of the United States by tyrannically and arbitrarily coercing United States companies to censor political speech, turn over sensitive United States user data, or change their content moderation policies on pain of extraordinary fines, criminal prosecution, asset freezes, or complete exclusion from the Brazilian market. These actions also chill and limit expression in the United States, violate human rights, and undermine the interest that the United States has in protecting its citizens and companies at home and abroad. [my emphasis]

Trump has been gunning for treating moderation requirements as a trade barrier for a while — it was and is one of the stumbling blocks to pretending that Trump actually entered an agreement with the EU.

But even ignoring everything else that’s wrong with this, declaring it illegal to subpoena Xitter in Brazil is the kind of thing that makes even a good faith attack on content moderation look silly. (The US does have an MLAT with Brazil.)

Ah well, at least he discovered that the US has a trade surplus with Brazil.

More importantly, is the timing.

Tomorrow is the hearing appealing Trump’s tariffs before the Circuit Court of Appeals, in which this Brazil gambit was sure to be an example of how absurd Trump’s claims are.

They’re still absurd.

But now they shift the absurd claim in such a way that might reframe tomorrow’s discussion.

Meanwhile, outlets in Brazil are reporting that Bolsonaro’s son — whom Trump is harboring in the US — is soliciting a coup in Brazil.

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Trump Might Pardon the Sex Trafficker Who “Stole” His Spa Girls and Other Details of the Cover-Up

Much of the traditional press (though not Chris Hayes) has missed the significance of Trump’s confession yesterday that Virginia Giuffre — recruited from Trump’s spa when she was 16 or 17 — was one of the girls that he says Jeffrey Epstein “stole.”

Reporter 1: I’m just curious. Were some of the workers that were taken from you — were some of them young women?

Trump: Were some of them?

Reporter 1: Were some of them young women?

Trump: Well, I don’t wanna say, but everyone knows the people that were taken. It was, the concept of taking people that work for me is bad. But that story’s been pretty well out there. And the answer is, yes, they were.

[inaudible]

Trump: In the spa. People that work in the spa. I have a great spa, one of the best spas in the world at Mar-a-Lago. And people were taken out of the spa. Hired. By him. In other words, gone. And um, other people would come and complain. This guy is taking people from the spa. I didn’t know that. And then when I heard about it I told him, I said, listen, we don’t want you taking our people, whether they were spa or not spa. I don’t want him taking people. And he was fine and then not too long after that he did it again and I said Out of here.

Reporter 2: Mr. President, did one of those stolen persons, did that include Virginia Giuffre?

Trump: Uh, I don’t know. I think she worked at the spa. I think so. I think that was one of the people, yeah. He stole her. And by the way, she had no complaints about us, as you know. None whatsoever.

Many, for example are forgetting what Trump said the day before: Epstein “stole” one of Trump’s girls, Trump told him to stop, and Epstein did it again.

What caused the breach with him? Very easy to explain. But I don’t want to waste your time by explaining it. But for years I wouldn’t talk to Jeffrey Epstein. I wouldn’t talk. Because he did something that was inappropriate. He hired help. And I said, don’t ever do that again. He stole people that worked for me. I said, don’t ever do that again. He did it again. And I threw him out of the place. Persona non grata. I threw him out. And that was it.

To tell Epstein to stop doing something, Trump would have had to have known he was doing something.

And the “it” is made much more clear by what “the Mar-a-Lago” told Page Six in 2007, even before Epstein had signed the sweetheart non-prosecution agreement.

Meanwhile, the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach last night confirmed a Web site report that Epstein has been banned there. “He would use the spa to try to procure girls. But one of them, a masseuse about 18 years old, he tried to get her to do things,” a source told us. “Her father found out about it and went absolutely ape-[bleep]. Epstein’s not allowed back.” Epstein denies he is banned from Mar-a-Lago and says, in fact, he was recently invited to an event there.

Before the full extent of Epstein’s abuse was public, someone at Mar-a-Lago wanted to make it clear that when Epstein did “procure girls … he tried to get her to do things.”

This member’s daughter who was “about 18,” was at least the second girl Trump learned about.

The first (or who knows? maybe she wasn’t the first!) was Giuffre.

The second (at least) was the member’s daughter.

Having now confirmed that Giuffre was among the “girls” Epstein would try to “procure” from Trump’s spa, it makes both Trump’s public acknowledgement to New York Magazine (two years after Ghislaine Maxwell “stole” Giuffre) that Epstein liked his so-called women “on the younger side” and the smutty letter sent a few months later reflected knowledge that Epstein was fucking girls.

“Voice Over: There must be more to life than having everything,” the note began.

Donald: Yes, there is, but I won’t tell you what it is.

Jeffrey: Nor will I, since I also know what it is. 

Donald: We have certain things in common, Jeffrey. 

Jeffrey: Yes, we do, come to think of it. 

Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that? 

Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you. 

Donald: A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.

Not just any girls, but his girls. Trump’s girls, from his spa.

And Trump is so furious that Ghislaine Maxwell stole girls from his spa that he’s saying the same thing about a pardon for her that he said about pardons for Paul Manafort and Roger Stone before he rewarded for their lies about him, that he won’t rule it out.

By all appearances, Trump will pardon the woman who stole his girls. That’s how furious he is that she groomed at least two of his girls and tried — successfully in Giuffre’s case — to turn her into a sex slave.

Meanwhile, now that Trump has placated much of the press, the cover-up continues apace. In a letter David Markus sent to James Comer (but not Oversight Ranking Member Robert Garcia — Markus was leaving nothing to chance) he said that Ghislaine would only testify to the House Oversight Committee if she:

  • Got formal immunity
  • Got the questions in advance
  • After she tests her luck with SCOTUS (in which case she won’t need to spill secrets to get out of prison)
  • If she gets clemency for the things she’ll say

In other words, she’ll only testify if that’s the only way she can leverage what she knows.

Comer immediately declined, meaning Trump faces no risk that Ghislaine’s silence will disrupt the cover-up.

Meanwhile, Pam Bondi, Todd Blanche, and Jay Clayton (but not even the AUSA who filed an appearance) have confessed that they are engaged in a headfake. Their response to Richard Berman and Paul Engelmeyer  falsely claims that the interest in these transcripts arose from the memo Pam Bondi released and not the inflammatory comments and promises Bondi, Kash Patel, and Dan Bongino made.

Attention given to the Epstein and Maxwell cases has recently intensified in the wake of the July 6, 2025 Memorandum announcing the conclusions of the Government’s review into the investigation

They minimize the concerns about victim testimony because just two people testified.

Here, there was one witness—an FBI agent—during the Epstein grand jury proceedings. There were two witnesses—the same FBI agent from the Epstein grand jury proceedings and a detective with the NYPD who was a Task Force Officer with the FBI’s Child Exploitation and Human Trafficking Task Force—during the Maxwell grand jury proceedings.

Both witnesses are still alive; the FBI agent continues to be an agent with the FBI, and the Detective continues to be a Detective with the NYPD as well as a Task Force Officer.

Consistent with applicable rules concerning the admissibility of hearsay testimony, the grand jury witnesses described statements of others, including statements of and concerning victims, many of whom are still alive.

They admit they’ll redact the names of the third parties who enabled Epstein (which they wouldn’t necessarily have to do if they released the files in their custody).

[T]he grand jury transcripts contain victim-related and other personal identifying information related to third parties who neither have been charged or alleged to be involved in the crimes with which Epstein and Maxwell were charged, to which the Government is sensitive, and which is why the Government proposes redacting the transcripts before releasing them.

But they are providing notice to those people.

 In addition, the Government is in the process of providing notice to any other individuals identified in the transcripts.

They appear to suggest that they’re not providing all the grand jury transcripts to the judges — just the underlying material.

The Court directed the Government to submit: (1) indices of Epstein and Maxwell grand jury materials, including a brief summary, the number of pages, and dates; (2) a complete set of the Epstein and Maxwell grand jury transcripts; (3) a complete proposed redacted set of the Epstein and Maxwell grand jury transcripts; and (4) a description of any other Epstein and Maxwell grand jury materials, including, but not limited to, exhibits. (Epstein Dkt. 63 at 3; Maxwell Dkt. 789 at 3). As to the final category, the Government provides a description of all of the underlying materials presented to the grand jury as well as copies of, and proposed redactions to, certain materials presented to the grand jury. [my emphasis]

They definitely don’t answer a question both judges asked: whether DOJ had asked the victims before filing this response.

The Court also directed the Government to state whether, “before filing the instant motion, counsel for the Government reviewed the Maxwell grand jury transcripts and whether the Government provided notice to the victims of the motion to unseal,”

[snip]

In addition, the Government has now provided notice to all but one of the victims who are referenced in the grand jury transcripts at issue in this motion. The Government has attempted to contact the remaining victim, but such efforts have been unsuccessful. In addition, the Government is in the process of providing notice to any other individuals identified in the transcripts.

Having not done that (and not yet spoken to one of the victims), they ask for a chance to respond to the victims’ comments about this ploy — which they should have asked about before they started it — after they file sealed responses.

[T]he Government also respectfully requests leave to file a supplemental submission once the Government and the Court have received any filings from the victims or others referenced in the transcripts.

The only thing this exercise is “transparency” has done so far is to share grand jury information with people implicated, but not charged, in Epstein’s actions.

Note, one person specifically implicated in Epstein’s crimes is Prince Andrew. To the extent he was investigated and possibly even charged under seal — which is the most obvious explanation for why he wouldn’t travel — the DOJ letter would create the appearance of a clean bill of health. But it could be buried in a different grand jury and we’d never even know.

Update: This is a very good CNN piece, including a long focus on how hard this is on the victims.

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Ten Years Ago I Warned Republicans Had Few Means of Limiting the Damage Trump Would Do

Ten years ago today, I published this article, in which I predicted that Republicans would all fall in line behind Trump.

[S]o long as the base continues to eat up Trump’s schtick –the Republicans are going to be stuck with him, because they have few means of controlling him and even fewer to limit any damage he might do if provoked.

[snip]

If all proceeds as things appear to be proceeding — although, yes, it is far too early to say for certain that it will — Republicans will ultimately be applauding the prospect of President Trump. complete with the possibility he’ll appoint Dennis Rodman (drawing on his diplomatic trip to North Korea) as Ambassador to China. If and when Trump becomes the only viable opponent for Hillary Clinton, Republicans will be forced to accept their fate and hope for the best.

And with it, they may well recognize that their ideological celebration of the rich and of demagoguery have delivered them precisely the candidate they’ve asked for.

It’s a dizzying read for me, not least because I recognize a number of things (including the Russian plot to help Trump, but even more the resurgent authoritarianism of the right) had already kicked off, little visible until Trump caused a light to focus on them.

That said, what was already visible — not least, Trump’s demonization of immigrants as a means to grab attention and encourage the worst instincts among white Americans — carry through to this day.

 

 

In recent days Trump’s ability to grab and control attention has come under strain, in part because the very forces he unleashed refuse to be placated by bullshit.

 

 

But after Donald Trump largely confessed that he knew of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking but did nothing more than demand that Epstein stop recruiting at Mar-a-Lago, the press has largely ignored the import of that and moved on.

As a WaPo story quoting the White House declaring victory on Trump’s Epstein scandal notes today, Trump has managed to do this before.

“People forget,” the White House official said. “We’ve gone through these things for the last eight years.”

It’s been ten years, not eight.

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With Emil Bove’s Confirmation, Trump Hones His Criminal Protection Racket

After a 50-49 vote confirming him (Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted against, with all Democrats), Emil Bove will be installed in New Jersey’s Third Circuit seat. He will remain there until retirement, death, impeachment, or criminal prosecution — or, quite possibly, promotion to SCOTUS — removes him.

It pains me to catalog the ways in which Bove’s confirmation serves and advances Trump’s criminal protection racket. But we need to understand how Trump plans to destroy rule of law and Bove’s central role in it.

Reward for keeping Trump out of prison

Bove left SDNY at a point when his career stalled. He had faced problems because of his bullying and supervised the worst Brady violation in recent memory. After briefly representing Guo Wengui’s co-conspirator (and facing a conflict review because he had supervised the investigation against her), he joined up with Todd Blanche on Trump’s defense team.

There’s little indication he did anything of note on the defense team. John Sauer masterminded the successful ploy for immunity and Aileen Cannon needed little help in finding an excuse to throw out the stolen documents case.

But he did enough to reassure Trump that he would be Trump’s fixer, and so he ran DOJ until Pam Bondi and Todd Blanche were confirmed, and remained in a key role after that.

Reward for the abuse and misconduct Bove risked

During his short tenure at DOJ, Bove did at least three things that have merited ethical review and/or could justify criminal review:

  • He engaged in what Judge Dale Ho suggested was a quid pro quo, dismissing the case against Eric Adams in exchange for pliant cooperation from NYC’s Mayor
  • He repeatedly ordered lawyers to act in contravention of their oath and ethical obligations and fired those who did not comply
  • He gave the order to unload over two hundred men into a concentration camp based on an Alien Enemies Act declaration that Trump should have known was riddled with false claims; the men credibly claim they were tortured and raped there

All of these are the subject of some kind of review (in the form of bar complaints and the contempt proceeding before Boasberg). But even if those reviews find Bove engaged in misconduct, without the political pressure that failed here, he’ll be largely immune from consequences.

Continued debasement of the Senate

Republicans confirmed Bove because of loyalty to Trump. In doing so, they blew off:

  • A letter signed by over 900 former DOJ lawyers
  • A letter signed by 80 former judges, including Michael Luttig
  • Three whistleblower complaints, two focused on the immigration defiance and a third focused on his role in the Eric Adams quid pro quo (Whistleblower Aid revealed the complaint submitted to DOJ IG got “lost” until yesterday)

There’s surely a range of rationalizations Senators adopted to explain why they did it. A terror of Trump’s wrath, a disinterest in their own constitutional obligations, a belief in laughably thin claims that the objections to Bove — all rooted in rule of law, from astonishingly large bipartisan judges and lawyers who adhere to rule of law — were partisan attacks.

Every time Trump gets the Senate to confirm someone who is facially unqualified — starting with Pete Hegseth, moving on to RFK Jr, then to install his defense attorneys at Attorney General, Deputy Attorney General, and Solicitor General, onto the conspiracy theorists at FBI, and now to Bove — he expands their tolerance to do more of the same.

He has domesticated the Senate, like dumb slobbery puppies who keep rolling in their own shit.

Eviction of real lawyers

I’m not sure I have a good count of all the principled lawyers that Emil Bove left in his wake. They include:

  • Lawyers who prosecuted Trump’s mob
  • Lawyers who prosecuted Trump for stealing classified documents
  • The entire Eric Adams prosecution team
  • People at Public Integrity who refused to sign off on Bove’s corrupt quid pro quo
  • Denise Cheung, who refused to hold payments based on James O’Keefe conspiracy theories
  • Erez Reuveni

Which is to say, before he left DOJ, Bove removed around career 50 lawyers who believed in upholding the law, even against the powerful.

Unexplained DC Circuit complicity in Bove’s impunity

For the entirety of the time Bove’s confirmation was pending, two Trump appointed judges, Greg Katsas and Neomi Rao, sat on Boasberg’s contempt ruling, stalling any discovery to learn more about Bove (and others’) misconduct on the Alien Enemies Act case.

It’s bad enough that they stalled on this. How they decided to do so concerns me even more. Were they taking instructions from someone?

Punishment of real judges

In curious timing, yesterday Pam Bondi filed a misconduct complaint against James Boasberg in the DC Circuit.

The conspiracy theory behind the complaint has been bubbling around for a few weeks: Someone leaked details of a Judicial Conference meeting days before Judge Boasberg imposed a stay on Trump’s Alien Enemies Act deportations to propagandist Margot Cleveland.

Steve Vladeck explains more about the complaint and argues this is intended to throw red meat to Trump’s base and cow other judges. But it may also be designed to give Katsas and Rao a pretext to do something other than let the contempt case move forward. That is, this may be an effort to shut down further inquiry in how Trump’s DOJ knowingly sent 200 men, many innocent, to a concentration camp as part of a quid pro quo to help Nayib Bukele bury his own ties to MS-13.

A captive judge at Bedminster

Bove is from Pennsylvania, not New Jersey. By appointing Bove to the NJ seat (a Delaware seat was also open), Trump ensures that his own defense attorney will be available (though arguably conflicted) for any problems that arise for him in his summer home, Bedminster, which also happens to be where some of the still-missing stolen documents disappeared to.

We had a window to reverse Trump’s mafia state before he packed the courts. With Bove’s confirmation, that window begins to close.

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A Dossier Steal: HPSCI Expertly Discloses Their Own Shoddy Cover-Up

HPSCI’s dishonesty mirror

My very favorite paragraphs in the entire House Intelligence Report (HPSCI Report) attacking the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) on Russian election interference are these two:

They complain that the 2-page appendix of the ICA addressing the Steele dossier didn’t include details about Christopher Steele that would discredit the dossier, chief among them HPSCI’s claim that Steele was terminated “for being dishonest.”

Here’s how the DOJ Inspector General on the Carter Page FISAs described when and why Steele got shut down as a source:

On November 1, 2016, Steele’s FBI handling agent questioned Steele, who admitted speaking to the reporter who wrote the October 31 article. The handling agent advised Steele at that time that his relationship with the FBI would likely be terminated for disclosing his relationship with the FBI to the press, and the FBI officially closed Steele for cause on November 17, 2016. Steele was never paid by the FBI for any of the reports or information that he provided concerning Carter Page or connections between the Russian government and the Trump campaign.

He was terminated “for disclosing his relationship with the FBI to the press.” Now, perhaps it’s churlish to expect a report on accuracy and sourcing dated September 18, 2020 to account for a report released 284 days earlier, on December 9, 2019.

So, let’s try their own claimed source. Here’s how Steele’s handler, Mike Gaeta, described it in a December 2017 HPSCI interview that the HPSCI report cites extensively, including in that first paragraph.

I called him to confront him and ask him if he was the source in that article. So I said, “Was that you in the article?” And he goes, “Yes, it was.” At which point I said, “Why on Earth would you do that?” And I said, “Everything is going to change here on out.”

I told him a couple of things. I told him, you know, you are no longer considering — don’t consider yourself being tasked by us. You are not working on our behalf. You are not to collect any information on behalf of the FBl. I said, you know, the relationship will end. You know, this was because of his violation of the agreement that we had made back on October 3rd, which I don’t believe we got into, but because he clearly didn’t follow directions, because he clearly went against what he was instructed to do, and because he went public, the relationship was then ended that day.

But then, officially, on paper, a few weeks later, we actually shut the file down. And that was — and I also told him he was not being paid. There was a payment that he was expecting at that point, and I said that that’s not going to happen

[snip]

Up until that moment, he had been a complete professional. And so, when I see that in the article, I was just — that’s when I was taken aback. And then when I confronted him, he said, “Yes, I did it.” And then he makes this comment about being upset about the actions of the Director on the Friday before. [my emphasis]

Steele “went public,” which “went against what he was instructed to do,” but he was honest that he had done so. “Up until that moment, he had been a complete professional.”

Even the Nunes memo — the predecessor to this section, largely authored by now-FBI Director Kash Patel — describes that Steele was terminated because he made an “unauthorized disclosure to the media” (though that memo makes plenty of other errors, which I addressed here).

Steele wasn’t closed because he was dishonest (indeed, the IG Report quotes Peter Strzok saying, “We did not close him because we thought he was [a] fabricator”). And he definitely wasn’t closed in October, as the first but not second paragraph claims, before the Mother Jones article that was the precipitating reason for his termination as an FBI source.

The first paragraph above kicked off an entire section of the HPSCI Report attacking Steele’s credibility. The second appears several pages later, in a section scolding the ICA authors for not providing proper source reporting. These pivotal paragraphs in HPSCI’s case against Christopher Steele claim that he was fired for being dishonest.

The claim, itself, was dishonest. The claim, itself, misrepresents source reporting.

That’s a pretty good read of the kind of rampant error and sloppiness found throughout this entire section — and, indeed, the report more generally.

Dossier insertion

And consider the import of that first paragraph’s citation to “interviews with the FBI agent who handled Mr. Steele.”

As I explained in this post, the claimed project of the HPSCI Report was to measure whether the ICA had enough evidence to back the assessments they made in the report, published on January 5, 2017. Elsewhere (with the notable exception of the 2018 indictment of Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s trolls), HPSCI pretends they’ve learned absolutely nothing in the interim period. They don’t know that George Papadopoulos got advance notice Russia was going to drop emails. They don’t know that Don Jr. responded enthusiastically to an email offering, “very high level and sensitive information [that] is part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump.” They don’t know that Trump’s campaign manager met with a suspected Russian spy and shared campaign strategy at the same meeting where they discussed getting paid by pro-Russian oligarchs and carving up Ukraine.

The premise of the report is to play dumb to all that.

The dossier discussion, by contrast, engages in no such conceit. Over and over, HPSCI uses stuff discovered after the ICA to claim ICA authors shouldn’t have included the Steele dossier in the ICA (though once again, this is very selective). It’s a different project entirely.

Even in structure, it feels like HPSCI took an existing, mostly unrelated report on the dossier and plopped it into the middle of this assessment of the ICA. The entire dossier section — almost a quarter of the full report — is actually a subsection of a finding addressing a different document; the dossier is included in that section because the ICA summary of the dossier reportedly included the words, “Russian plans and intentions.”

Given the apparently haphazard ploy to dump the dossier work in here, look closely at what the HPSCI report says about the inclusion of the dossier in the ICA in the first place.

Schrodinger’s dossier

All three reports released recently (CIA’s Tradecraft review, Tulsi’s propaganda presentation, and this 2020 HPSCI report) have some version of complaint that, after a debate among Jim Comey, John Brennan, and Mike Rogers as to how to fulfill President Obama’s mandate to include everything they knew in the ICA, they decided to put it into an annex along with a bullet — newly disclosed — that cited to it as “additional reporting.”

Tulsi even has someone she calls a whistleblower who claimed he remained ignorant that that had happened as late as September 2019, though like so many of her claims that’s based on a misrepresentation of the record.

The HPSCI Report cites those four words, “Russian plans and intentions,” it used them to justify including the dossier in this section. But it doesn’t describe what the CIA report does: the two-page appendix includes a disclaimer.

Ultimately, agency heads decided to include a two-page summary of the Dossier as an annex to the ICA, with a disclaimer that the material was not used “to reach the analytic conclusions.” [my emphasis]

The HPSCI omission is important. That’s true, first of all, because the HPSCI Report goes to great lengths to claim that by including the bullet, the ICA authors effectively incorporated the dossier content in the report itself. But their analysis makes it very clear the dossier material was not in the ICA.  Just as one example, the HPSCI Report claims “The ICA indicated no evidence of similar damaging material being held by Moscow on candidate Trump, making him less vulnerable to such post-election influence operations” [than Hillary]. Elsewhere they claim that Hillary, traveling as either the First Lady or the Secretary of State, was more vulnerable to compromise on overseas trips than Trump, traveling as a beauty pageant promoter. If the dossier is in the ICA, both those claims are ridiculous (once you consider Trump’s secret efforts to build a Trump Tower funded by sanctioned banks, both are ridiculous in any case, but…).

HPSCI adopts another inconsistent claim about how the dossier appendix was included in the ICA. Tulsi’s documents show that the plan for the ICA was to create three versions:

But as both the HPSCI Report and the CIA report complain, “the highest classified version of the ICA” — the one intended for around 30 people — “had been shared with more than 200 US officials.” (The HPSCI report later complains that the dossier couldn’t have been included in the ICA in the service of a defensive briefing because that most classified version went to 250 people.)

Well, who did that? Most of that dissemination would have happened after January 20, 2017. Most of that dissemination would have happened under Donald Trump. And that’s weird, because HPSCI also claims that the dossier was stuck in (an appendix of) only the most classified section to “better able to shield the assessment from scrutiny,” even though they’ve just complained about how broadly it disseminated … under Trump.

Holding the ICA accountable for things discovered a year later

Mostly, though, the vast bulk of the HPSCI report about the dossier is an extended rant that ICA authors did not include stuff the committee itself discovered via a sustained investigation.

A list of just some of the things the HPSCI Report complains the ICA authors did not include includes:

  • Details from the January 2017 debrief of Igor Danchenko, which started on January 24 but wasn’t memorialized until early February
  • A full accounting of how many media outlets Steele shared the dossier with (which may be sourced to Glenn Simpson’s 2019 book or HPSCI’s own investigation)
  • The Buzzfeed publication on January 10, 2017
  • The means by which Steele delivered his reports, which HPSCI’s own investigation unpacked (relying in part on that December 2017 Gaeta interview)
  • Gaeta’s own background (a complaint which ignored how FBI works sources)
  • Steele’s own refusal to be interviewed by the investigation (???), as if the ICA could ever have accounted for that
  • The absence of claims about Steele’s source network — which the FBI first started discovering with their January 2017 Danchenko interview
  • Gaeta’s 2017 testimony about what Bruce Ohr did
  • Details about what Steele did at DOJ (such as what he said to Bruce Ohr) but didn’t do with the Crossfire Hurricane team
  • Other details of the termination discussion HPSCI obtained from Gaeta
  • Details about Fusion’s work for Natalia Veselnitskaya, which came out in the wake of Don Jr’s release of the June 9 emails (largely forced by HPSCI’s investigation)
  • Details about plans to pay Steele, which were killed (HPSCI affirmatively misrepresented the circumstances of the tasking assignment; most of the reports came before the tasking meeting)
  • More details about Steele’s ties to the press
  • A quote from Andrew McCabe’s December 2017 testimony about what the FBI had been able to verify

And some of the things that were known by January 5, 2017 were almost certainly not available to ICA for the same reason that details of George Papadopoulos’ advance notice of the email leak were not: because it was part of an ongoing FBI investigation.

The standard applied to the dossier is wildly different than the standard applied to the rest of the report.

HPSCI bros need to review their hacking claims

Worse still, the HPSCI Report sucks at the thing that should be a slam dunk. The second-to-last part of this section challenges the ICA claim that some parts of the dossier were consistent with other known facts.

Now, I would expect a half committee of Congressional staffers, many with past training on the IC, to be able to do as well as little old me before they had two of the key interviews on which they rely on.

January 11, 2017: The Democrats Newfound Love for Russian Intelligence Product

September 6, 2017: John Sipher’s Garbage Post Arguing the Steele Dossier Isn’t Garbage

Most of HPSCI’s assessment of “corroboration” reviews generalized items about Putin’s intent. It claims,

The CIA further claimed “limited” intelligence corroboration of Steele’s information, but failed to mention that his dossier was produced after Russian election hacking operations had already been exposed in the media — beginning 4 June 2016, [sic] while Mr. Steele delivered his first report to FBI on 5 July 2016 — and thus any dossier mention of Russian hacking was neither predictive, nor was it unique information that was “corroborated” by intelligence.

“Regurgitated” would have been a more descriptive term to describe the dossier, in that it parroted media or internet stories and pundit comments on Russian hacks of the DNC.

As pertaining to hacking, though — their primary focus — it’s actually not that the dossier parroted things that were public.

It’s that they affirmatively rebutted the most obvious conclusions from the ongoing hack-and-leak. For example, the first and several reports completed after that all suggested that the Kompromat that Russia had on Hillary was decades old material from when she traveled to Russia, not the hack-and-leak campaign rolling out in front of our eyes. A July 26, 2016 report, released after the DNC release and almost a year after the first public attributions of the APT 29 hack of State and DOD to Russia, claimed that Russia wasn’t having much success at hacking Western targets, a claim that anyone briefed on those APT 29 hacks (including the Republicans so taken with the SVR reports stolen in those hacks) would know was laughable. The most incendiary December 13 post attributed the troll campaign to Webzilla, not Yevgeniy Prigozhin. That is, the dossier wasn’t just delayed; it affirmatively contradicted most of the publicly known details about the election interference campaign and even more of the details that the ICA addressed closely. That should have raised concerns from everyone looking closely. It’s not just that the dossier had a lot of shit. It’s that the shit it did have would have led the Democrats to be complacent about the campaign targeting them (another point I made before HPSCI’s big interviews in December 2017).

And that should have raised questions from everyone involved.

HPSCI’s only consistency is playing dumb about Manafort and Deripaska

Which leads me to where this section gets really weird.

Again, the point of this report is to assess whether the ICA claims made in a January 5, 2017 report were backed by sufficient intelligence.

Yet at three different points in this section, HPSCI complains about what happened after the report was complete. They complain about the way Jim Comey briefed the dossier to Trump on January 6, 2017. They claim that including the dossier raised alarmist concerns among senior policy makers — about which Trump complained after the fact. And in a report purporting to review the ICA itself, they complain about what Comey said in a White House visit on February 8, 2017 (which was after the first Igor Danchenko debriefing but a day before it was memorialized).

This is all weird on its face. None of it pertains to the contents of the ICA at all (and to the extent it feeds right wing frothy conspiracy theories, it relies on their demand that ICA authors know what it took HPSCI a year to discover).

But one thing that at least some of these people knew before this time does not appear in the HPSCI. While HPSCI makes much of the fact that (the ICA didn’t mention that) Fusion GPS worked with Natalia Veselnitskaya, they show no concern about the fact that, via a different firm, Steele worked with Oleg Deripaska — and even attempted to collect dirt on Paul Manafort for him starting in March 2016, something addressed in the Danchenko interview. By May 2017, the intelligence community had assessed that Deripaska “was associated” with a Russian intelligence agency. The right wing, including multiple people on HPSCI, staged a panic about Steele’s ties to Deripaska in August 2018 … and then they just dropped it. The December 2019 IG Report included extensive discussion of the degree to which Deripaska influenced Steele’s earlier reporting and might have succeeded in injecting the dossier with disinformation.

Even crazier, with their obsession about how Steele delivered the dossier to the FBI, they ignore how Steele pushed Deripaska’s own complaints to DOJ, all in parallel with his efforts to hand off the dossier. I laid out the double game Deripaska appears to have been playing in early 2020, nine months before this HPSCI Report.

These details become all the more important given the HPSCI Report’s focus on things that happened in late January and February 2017, because Paul Manafort — about whom they play dumb throughout this report — met with a Deripaska deputy just as the dossier was breaking, only to return and advise right wingers to launch precisely the campaign that this HPSCI Report tries to carry out.

In one of HPSCI’s few complaints about the ICA fairly situated on what (or how little) they might know about the dossier by January 5, 2017, HPSCI notes that while the ICA described the complexity of Steele’s claimed network, they didn’t know enough to know whether it was infected by his own fabrication or Russian disinformation.

The ICA also describes dossier information as collected from “a layered network of identified and unidentified subsources” although the ICA did not clarify that FBI and CIA had so few details on the alleged network, that they didn’t know if this material was all or in part fabricated by Mr. Steele, his subsources, or if it was Russian disinformation fed to the subsources.

But by September 2020, HPSCI should have.

Update: Fixed year of DOJ IG Report.

Links

A Dossier Steal: HPSCI Expertly Discloses Their Own Shoddy Cover-Up

Think of the HPSCI Report as a Time Machine to Launder Donald Trump’s Russia Russia Russia Claims

Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe Reveal Putin “Was Counting on” a Trump Win

Tulsi Gabbard Teams Up with Russian Spies to Wiretap and Unmask Hillary Clinton

The Secrets about Russia’s Influence Operation that Tulsi Gabbard Is Still Keeping from Us

Tulsi Gabbard Accuses Kash Patel of Covering Up for the Obama Deep State

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Did Trump Just Confess He Learned about Virginia Giuffre before Jeffrey Epstein Recruited Someone Else at Mar-a-Lago?

Update: In a Gaggle today, Trump did just confess this is about Giuffre and others.

Reporter 1: I’m just curious. Were some of the workers that were taken from you — were some of them young women?

Trump: Were some of them?

Reporter 1: Were some of them young women?

Trump: Well, I don’t wanna say, but everyone knows the people that were taken. It was, the concept of taking people that work for me is bad. But that story’s been pretty well out there. And the answer is, yes, they were. 

[inaudible]

Trump: In the spa. People that work in the spa. I have a great spa, one of the best spas in the world at Mar-a-Lago. And people were taken out of the spa. Hired. By him. In other words, gone. And um, other people would come and complain. This guy is taking people from the spa. I didn’t know that. And then when I heard about it I told him, I said, listen, we don’t want you taking our people, whether they were spa or not spa. I don’t want him taking people. And he was fine and then not too long after that he did it again and I said Out of here.

Reporter 2: Mr. President, did one of those stolen persons, did that include Virginia Giuffre? 

Trump: Uh, I don’t know. I think she worked at the spa. I think so. I think that was one of the people, yeah. He stole her. And by the way, she had no complaints about us, as you know. None whatsoever. 


Yesterday, Donald Trump offered an entirely new explanation for his falling out with sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. Not a fight, in 2004, over the purchase of the property from which Trump would soon earn a tidy profit from Russian oligarch Dmitry Rybolovlev.

For the better part of two decades starting in the late 1980s, Jeffrey Epstein and Donald Trump swam in the same social pool. They were neighbors in Florida. They jetted from LaGuardia to Palm Beach together. They partied at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club and dined at Epstein’s Manhattan mansion.

And then, in 2004, they were suddenly rivals, each angling to snag a choice Palm Beach property, an oceanfront manse called Maison de l’Amitie — the House of Friendship — that was being sold out of bankruptcy.

[snip]

It is unclear whether Trump and Epstein were in contact after the house sale. That month, Trump left two messages for Epstein at his home in Palm Beach, according to records obtained by Vice News — the last known interaction between the two men.

Four years after he bought the Gosman mansion, Trump sold it to Russian businessman Dmitry Rybolovlev for $95 million, more than doubling his investment.

Not a generic recoil from “a creep” (as if a guy who wanted to make Matt Gaetz his Attorney General would be turned off by Epstein).

But instead because Epstein poached two of his employees. Or rather and perhaps more importantly, Epstein “stole” one employee, Trump told him not to do it again, and then Epstein stole another.

What caused the breach with him? Very easy to explain. But I don’t want to waste your time by explaining it. But for years I wouldn’t talk to Jeffrey Epstein. I wouldn’t talk. Because he did something that was inappropriate. He hired help. And I said, don’t ever do that again. He stole people that worked for me. I said, don’t ever do that again. He did it again. And I threw him out of the place. Persona non grata. I threw him out. And that was it.

Epstein did, in fact, steal at least one employee from Trump: Virginia Giuffre, back in the summer of 2000 (and so years before even the most public date given for when Trump broke with Epstein, 2004). Within a year, Maxwell allegedly forced Giuffre to have sex with Prince Andrew on three occasions.

But a 2020 book told of another, later, incident when Epstein recruited (or attempted to) at Mar-a-Lago, that time with the daughter of a member.

Donald Trump severed ties with Jeffrey Epstein after the disgraced financier hit on the teenage daughter of a Mar-a-Lago member, threatening the Trump brand of glitz and glamour, according to a new book published about the president’s Palm Beach club.

[snip]

Another club member explained that Trump “kicked Epstein out after Epstein harassed the daughter of a member. The way this person described it, such an act could irreparably harm the Trump brand, leaving Donald no choice but to remove Epstein,” said Sarah Blaskey, a Miami Herald investigative reporter who co-wrote the book with Miami Herald journalists Nicholas Nehamas and Jay Weaver and Caitlin Ostroff of the Wall Street Journal. “The Trump Organization did not respond to our requests for comment on this or other matters.”

A footnote in the book says the authors were shown the club’s registry from more than a decade earlier and that Epstein in fact had been a member until October 2007.

To be sure, it would pathological to describe the recruitment of sex trafficking victims as simply hiring someone’s help away from them. But it is the case that Giuffre, at least, went from employ at Mar-a-Lago (where her father was a more trusted employee) to years of financial payment from Epstein.

Calling that “employment” is precisely the kind of fiction Trump engages in all the time — to treat the financially-lubricated sex trafficking of women as mere employ.

What I’m interested in with the possibility that Trump cut off Epstein for recruiting at Mar-a-Lago is the timing Trump just laid out.

Epstein stole an employee (hypothetically, Giuffre, in 2000). Trump told Epstein not to do it again. And then — possibly the event that led to the 2007 removal — “he did it again.”

Right in-between those incidents, in 2002, Trump told New York Magazine that Epstein liked his girls (Trump called them “women”) young.

Epstein likes to tell people that he’s a loner, a man who’s never touched alcohol or drugs, and one whose nightlife is far from energetic. And yet if you talk to Donald Trump, a different Epstein emerges. “I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy,” Trump booms from a speakerphone. “He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life.”

And then, according to WSJ, in 2003, Trump or his staff sent Epstein a birthday letter referencing secrets and enigmas, with Trump’s signature appearing like pubic hair.

“Voice Over: There must be more to life than having everything,” the note began.

Donald: Yes, there is, but I won’t tell you what it is.

Jeffrey: Nor will I, since I also know what it is. 

Donald: We have certain things in common, Jeffrey. 

Jeffrey: Yes, we do, come to think of it. 

Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that? 

Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you. 

Donald: A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.

If Donald Trump learned what happened to Giuffre and warned Epstein never to recruit sex slaves at Mar-a-Lago again, it would mean he was aware of what happened to Giuffre, aware years before law enforcement first started investigating Epstein. It would mean he learned Epstein was trafficking girls, which that New York Magazine quote sure seems to reflect, and rather than do something to make Epstein stop, Trump just told him not to do it at Mar-a-Lago.

It would also mean that whatever records the FBI has on their investigation into Prince Andrew — an investigation that led the Prince to stop traveling internationally — would reflect personally on Donald Trump. Not because of what Trump did, but because of what he didn’t do.

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Trump to Rupert: If You Show Me Yours, I Won’t Show You Mine

Donald Trump’s lawyer just filed a clown motion to depose Rupert Murdoch in his WSJ lawsuit immediately (the court already approved Dow Jones’ uncontested request to extend the response date to September 22).

As justification, Trump’s lawyer argues, in part, that Rupert is old and might kick off before things slowly get around to discovery in a year’s time or so, if they even get that far.

Murdoch’s age and health warrant conducting his deposition on an expedited basis. Murdoch recently turned 94 years old and has suffered, but thankfully overcome, multiple health issues throughout his life. Moreover, upon information and belief, Murdoch resides in New York, New York, which is well over 100 miles from this District. Thus, it is presumable, both because of his age and health and/or his distance from this Court, that Murdoch will be unavailable for trial. See Supra Glass, 2024 WL 1558712, at *3 (granting motion for deposition de bene esse and finding that witnesses were unavailable for trial under 32(a)(4)(B)).

Among the things Trump is subpoenaing is any digital communication about the July 17 article reporting that a letter from Donald Trump was included in a 2003 birthday book for Jeffrey Epstein. Another is phone records about whom he spoke with on it.

7. Any text messages, iMessages, WhatsApp messages, Slack messages, Signal messages, WeChat messages, or any other form of digital communication on any mobile device related to the Article that You have sent or received.

8. Documents sufficient to show a log of the calls You made and received, on any landline or mobile phone number, from July 10, 2025 through July 25, 2025 related to the Article.

But the only proof that Trump presents that he did speak with Murdoch is an unvalidated screen cap of Trump’s Truth Social post posted after the fact to that effect (when Hunter Biden tried to submit such things in a court filing, DOJ successfully rejected it).

Worse still, the post falsely claims that WSJ “printed” “the supposed letter.”

That’s not even what the lawsuit alleges, which claims that WSJ stated that Trump authored, drew, and signed the letter in question.

17. Therein, Defendants falsely and maliciously stated that President Trump supposedly authored, drew, and signed a letter wishing Epstein a happy fiftieth birthday.

While the WSJ did say that Trump’s signature appeared where pubic hair might go, it specifically said that it did not know how the letter was produced.

It described that Ghislaine Maxwell collected letters from friends, including Trump.

She turned to Epstein’s family and friends. One of them was Donald Trump.

Maxwell collected letters from Trump and dozens of Epstein’s other associates for a 2003 birthday album, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

It described that the letter bore his name, and that his signature appeared.

The letter bearing Trump’s name, which was reviewed by the Journal, is bawdy—like others in the album. It contains several lines of typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, which appears to be hand-drawn with a heavy marker. A pair of small arcs denotes the woman’s breasts, and the future president’s signature is a squiggly “Donald” below her waist, mimicking pubic hair.

And it specifically said it did not know how the letter was prepared — disavowing knowledge of whether Trump “authored, drew, [or] signed” the letter himself.

It isn’t clear how the letter with Trump’s signature was prepared.

Trump provides no proof the emails or calls he describes actually occurred. He doesn’t provide his own phone records (or even, proof that he’s the one who posted the Truth Social post, something that took Jack Smith quite a bit of work regarding Trump’s January 6 tweets).

And curiously, Trump wants to know to whom Rupert was talking about all this starting on July 10, five days before the alleged phone call to Rupert (and wants to know to whom Rupert spoke for a full week after Trump filed the lawsuit, going through the second story on the Epstein book).

It’s a stunt. Among other things, it reveals that Trump doesn’t think Rupert plotted all this on Truth Social!

Update: Judge Darrin Gayles has given Rupert until August 4 to respond to the request.

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The EU Trade Deal: Playing for Time

Yesterday, Trump invited Ursula Von der Leyen for a lecture on windmills and a big announcement of a trade deal.

In theory and as laid out, Trump used threats of 30% tariffs to get the EU to capitulate to his demands, accepting 15% tariffs on goods exported to the United States rather than the 10% he was proposing weeks ago, before the Ghost of Jeffrey Epstein made him feel weak.

“The golf was beautiful,” Trump told reporters. “Even though I own it, it’s probably the best course in the world. And I look over the horizon and I see nine windmills at the end of the 18th. I say, isn’t that a shame?”

Trump said the EU will agree to purchase $750 billion of energy. It will also agree to invest $600 billion more than planned in the U.S.

Von der Leyen said the 15 percent tariff rate would be a ceiling, with the same rate applying to cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The tariff treatment for alcoholic drinks has still to be worked out.

Europe would replace Russian gas with purchases of energy from the U.S. with purchases of $250 billion per year for the rest of Trump’s term, she added. [my emphasis]

While no one seems to be addressing this, the EU reportedly did not budge on EU regulations on tech, one of the things Trump had been pushing for.

US consumers will be taxed on EU goods — with some carveouts. But EU consumers won’t be taxed on US goods (which are already cheaper because Trump is destroying the dollar).

In theory, this creates the same perverse incentive structure as the Japanese deal did, in which Japanese companies pay a lower tariff, 15%, on cars than US producers pay for inputs, 50%. In theory, the Japanese deal could lead Toyota and Honda to move jobs out of the United States. The EU doesn’t have that kind of brand impact in the US, however, meaning Volkswagen is badly hit by the tariffs but not in a strong enough position to simply revert production to Germany (or some place cheaper in the EU).

The tariffs will impose some of the biggest costs on Ireland, since it exports a lot of pharmaceuticals to the US (and that production may be one of the easier things to return to US production). Meanwhile, goods exported from Northern Ireland face a 5% lower tariff.

Meanwhile, France’s Prime Minister is already condemning the deal.

France called a framework trade deal between the United States and European Union a “dark day” for Europe, saying the bloc had caved in to U.S. President Donald Trump with an unbalanced deal that slaps a headline 15% tariff on EU goods while sparing U.S. imports from any immediate European retaliation.

The criticism from Prime Minister Francois Bayrou followed months of French calls for EU negotiators to take a tougher stance against Trump by threatening reciprocal measures — a position that contrasted with the more conciliatory approaches of Germany and Italy.

“It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission,” Bayrou wrote on X of what he called the “von der Leyen-Trump deal”.

I can’t help but think that this deal is just a holding pattern. After all, Trump plans to discuss with Keir Starmer today the deal he made with the UK back and May and was signed back in June. Every other deal he has “made” has led immediately to a dispute about what the countries really agreed to. Deals don’t actually get finalized for months after the deal. And Van der Leyen is kidding herself if you think Trump will be locked in to anything.

Meanwhile, as noted above, there’s no deal yet on how much Trump will tax French wines and other fancy European booze.

That’s notable given that Trump’s appeal of lower court rulings that his tariffs are unlawful, in part, because they’re so arbitrary and capricious will be Thursday at 10AM. And the lead plaintiff in that case is a wine importer, still looking for clarity on how much they’ll pay to import wines from, among other places, Austria, Italy, Greece, Spain, France, Germany, Croatia, and Hungary, over a 100 days after suing.

Plaintiff V.O.S. Selections, Inc. is a 39-year-old New York-based business, founded by Victor Owen Schwartz, that specializes in the importation and distribution of small-production wines, spirits, and sakes from six continents. V.O.S. Selections has made and makes significant direct purchases of wines, spirits, and sakes from Austria, Italy, Greece, Lebanon, Morocco, Spain, France, Portugal, Mexico, Argentina, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, and South Africa. The products it imports are not reasonably available from a producer in the United States.

If the Circuit Court of Appeals upholds (or preferably, improves) the lower court ruling, then this whole process will be thrown back into chaos until SCOTUS tells us whether their expansive view of the presidency extends to roiling international trade agreements every time he gets grumpy about a sex trafficking scandal.

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Think of the HPSCI Report as a Time Machine to Launder Donald Trump’s Russia Russia Russia Claims

On July 11, 2017, I noted that we had proof that Trump’s claims he had been wiretapped were false. That’s because, if the Intelligence Community had found an exchange like the one Don Jr released that day — in which someone working for Russian oligarch Aras Agalarov offered Don Jr, “very high level and sensitive information but is part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump” and he responded, “If it’s what you say I love it especially later in the summer,” then the confidence level for the Intelligence Community Assessment that Russia had affirmatively tried to help Donald Trump get elected would have been high, even for the NSA (which said it only had moderate confidence).

And yet we’re still arguing over whether that judgement was fair eight years later.

The HPSCI report released the other day — which is dated September 18, 2020, but which right wing HPSCI Chair Rick Crawford misleadingly released alongside a statement pretending it was done in January 2017, and which the architect of the case for the Iraq War, Fred Fleitz, says was done in 2018 —  seems to have been a response to a more rigorous SSCI Report released weeks earlier that confirmed Putin did want Trump to win. (Indeed, Fleitz offers a garbage explanation to claim this HPSCI Report is more credible than the SSCI one.)

The HPSCI report manages to challenge the SSCI conclusion by revisiting a different question: Not, did Russia take actions to help Trump win the election that created a grave counterintelligence threat (the SSCI report included, but went far beyond, the evidence released in the Mueller Report) but, did the IC claim that Putin did want Trump to win, made in a rushed report published in the first days of 2017, have enough evidence behind it at the time?

The report accuses John Brennan of having made up his mind to that question, yes, Putin aspired to help Trump, and thereby influenced the result. Fair enough (though as I read it I wondered whether Brennan knew of the advance notice of the email leak that George Papadopoulos got, and so had a source of confidence not reflected in the report; and the nature of the claim in the HPSCI report differs from the nature of the claim in a report John Ratcliffe released last week). But the HPSCI report does the exact same thing, delivering up the result that Donald Trump wanted, and it did so, in part, by intentionally remaining dumb to many, but not all, of the things that had been learned since.

Just as one example, the report asserts,

[T]he available intelligence showed: No Putin orders directing or suggesting operations intended to elect Trump (by contrast, Intelligence on Russian operations on German elections specifically mentioned Putin’s goal of defeating Chancellor Merkel).

This refers to this ICA judgment predicting that Germany would be the next country in whose elections Russia would interfere. Only, that judgement turned out to be wrong; Russia conducted the same kind of hack-and-leak campaign targeting Emmanuel Macron in May 2017 (with the help of pro-Trump influencers), so while that might be a good argument in January 2017, it fails after May 2017, to say nothing of September 2020.

More importantly, it only references the intelligence available through December 29, 2016, so wouldn’t include the damning email to Don Jr disclosed in July 2017. Because the ICA didn’t include ongoing FBI investigations, it wouldn’t include Papadopoulos’ brags about Russian interference that the FBI knew about, but didn’t, couldn’t, include in the report. It wouldn’t include the intercepts between Mike Flynn and Sergei Kislyak discovered in that very period as the IC sought to explain why Putin decided not to retaliate against US sanctions.

The HPSCI report concluded there was not enough intelligence to back a high confidence conclusion that Putin wanted to help Trump win by focusing only on the time before FBI started looking in earnest.

In any case, as I’ll show, in several places, the report breaks the conceit that they’re evaluating only the information available to the IC on December 29, 2016.

The HPSCI Report, then, is not so much a useful piece of analysis, but a time machine, an attempt, weeks before the 2020 election, to set the clock back for candidate Donald Trump to the time before it became clear he really did benefit from help from Russia.

And it doesn’t even do that very well.

The report structure

As laid out below, the report doesn’t hide that its sole goal is to erase the judgment that Putin wanted to elect Trump. Its first finding is that everything else in the ICA is sound, followed by seven poorly-organized findings ostensibly explaining why the assessment that Putin aspired to help Trump was unsound.

  • Finding 1: The bulk of the ICA judgements were sound.
  • Finding 2: Significant tradecraft failures cast doubt on the ICA judgments of Putin’s intentions, claiming that only on the judgment that Putin aspired to help Trump, the ICA tradecraft failed.
  • Finding 3: The ICA failed to acknowledge that key judgements were based on raw intelligence that did not meet tradecraft standards: This claims that of 15 sources behind the judgment, 12 were unremarkable, but three “contained flawed information and these became foundational” to the claim Putin aspired to help Trump win.
  • Finding 4: The ICA excluded significant intelligence that contradicted its judgment. This section discusses Russia explaining why there were downsides to both candidates.
  • Finding 5: The ICA disregarded Russian behavior that undermined its judgment that Putin aspired to help Trump win. This section, which notes that Moscow was receiving reports on US polling but doesn’t mention (!!!) that some came from Trump’s campaign manager, argues that since the election got close in its final weeks, you would have expected Putin to dump all the other derogatory intelligence he had on Hillary. That argument provides an opportunity to parrot the SVR documents discussed here. It also looked at what it claimed were Russian leaks (really, just one) that it said made Trump look bad. Finally, it ludicrously suggested that the disparate hacking of Hillary is just attributed to her being an easier target.
  • Finding 6: The ICA misrepresented documents on Putin’s intention. This pertains significantly to advice Putin got (it may also rely on the SVR documents). A 10-page attack on the dossier is put in here for contrived reasons, which I’ll return to in another post.
  • Finding 7: The ICA failed to consider alternate explanations. This section significantly revisits the SVR documents.
  • Finding 8: The ICA was unnecessarily rushed.

Some of this is quite reasonable. For example, Finding 4 notes that Russia was going to be unhappy with either candidate; I think Trump opponents often forget that Putin didn’t want a strong Trump, he wanted a Trump whose narcissism would create more problems than Hillary.

In Finding 8, sure this report was rushed. It had to be.

Some of the criticism of Brennan — if accurate, but as noted the complaint here is different from the complaint in more recent reports — seems fair.

The flawed reports (Finding 4)

In several other areas, the analysis only survives by relying on that time machine effect.

The report claims that of 15 pieces of intelligence to back the Putin finding, three were not just substandard, but were pushed through by Brennan.

The first I address here. Brennan pushed to include a report that Putin approved the DNC leak because he was “counting on” a Trump victory. The CIA, years later, stands by the quality of the source and the fact that the interpretation in the ICA, “was most consistent with the raw intelligence.”

The second of these three reports is far more interesting. It describes a report from Kyiv (the Republicans spell it Kiev) laying out a plan, starting in February 2016, to place someone pro-Russian on Trump’s campaign team. The analysis of this lead focuses on questionable sourcing and potential Ukrainian bias.

But the time machine effect of this report frees Republicans from accounting for the fact that Trump, starting in February 2016, in fact did place a pro-Kremlin official on his “election team,” Paul Manafort, and Manafort sought to monetize his role there by getting pro-Russian Ukrainians and a Russian oligarch to pay him.

And Konstantin Kilimnik, in Ukraine, seemed to know of that plan before Manafort was installed. This report may have looked problematic for inclusion in December 2016 (though by that point Manafort’s cover-up of his Russian ties was public). But it looked prescient by 2020.

The third report is similar. HPSCI’s response begins a long focus of the report attempting to debunk the underlying intelligence — a claim that Russia perceived Republicans to be less supportive of human rights — with a bunch of whataboutism. How dare you call the party of torture less supportive of human rights, the right wingers wail. Did you know that Reagan said, “tear down this wall”? All the while ignoring that Trump ran on an affirmatively pro-torture platform.

“They’re both poison” (Finding 5, 7)

In other words, a central pillar of the report is to complain that intelligence analysts didn’t consider alternative explanations for the intelligence they were looking at.

This was about the stage of reading this report where I could get not get the scene from Princess Bride where Vizzini attempts to outsmart the Dread Pirate Roberts out of my head.

 

That’s true because some of the arguments — and they go on for pages and pages — sound just as stupid as Vizzini does. Republicans tie themselves in knots trying to come up with alternative explanations. Republicans refuse to consider that the SVR hacks, which I wrote about here, were meant for intelligence collection but the foot-stomping GRU ones were not. They treat all the SVR reports — including the ones that, FBI had decided years before 2020 were objectively false or the one that Ratcliffe released days before this report warning it “may reflect exaggeration or fabrication” — as true and damning. They obsess about the derogatory claims about Hillary’s health and mental fitness without even considering the report Hillary released in real time after her pneumonia scare. They actually believe a claim that European leaders doubted Hillary could lead. These reports obviously play on right wing biases, and sure enough HPSCI’s Republicans cling to those Russian spy claims in the report, just as they have since Tulsi emphasized them. In a report that wails mightily (and correctly in at least one case, cited the parallel CIA report) about leaving out contrary information, HPSCI simply leaves out the Jim Comey allegation in one of the SVR reports, which if true, would explain why Putin wouldn’t have to (and didn’t) dump damning intel close to the election: Because Putin believed that “Comey is leaning more to the [R]epublicans, and most likely he will be dragging this investigation until the presidential elections,” something that turned out to be true. In other words, they cherry pick which Russian spy products they choose to parrot, one of the sins they accuse the ICA team of, but they do so with years of hindsight that made clear how foolish that was.

This report has an entire section on how Putin would have tracked polling and so knew he could get Trump over the line if he dumped opposition late in the campaign (which, of course, he did), without blushing about one source for that polling: Manafort’s regular provision of it via Kilimnik, something that became public between the ICA release in 2017 and this HPSCI report in September 2020.

Their claims get more ridiculous from there. Even in the face of the non-stop flood of Hillary emails released in 2016, right wingers cling to the single report from Colin Powell calling Trump “a national disgrace” as proof Putin doesn’t love Trump.

I mean, it’s pretty funny to me. But then ultimately it gets back to what Wesley, the Dread Pirate Roberts, said when Buttercup concluded that Wesley had put the poison in his own cup. He didn’t. He put poison in both glasses.

All the ICA did — and it’s worth reading how the “aspired to” section includes a lot of explanation as to why Putin would prefer Trump to which right wingers didn’t and don’t object, such as Trump’s willingness to partner with Russia on terrorism or make deals — all the ICA did was say that Putin wanted Trump to win. And right wingers have gone to all lengths, up to and including parroting Russian spies in the White House, to degrade the strength of that claim as it was made from high to moderate confidence years after it became clear the judgment was correct.

Ultimately the effort was intended and bound to drive more polarization. Which point the right wingers make but — oh my goodness look how they do it?!?! They point to the IRA’s activities after the election that claimed to oppose Trump’s election.

But they source that to the Robert Mueller IRA indictment, dated February 16, 2018, over a year after the ICA was completed.

By February 2018, there was abundant public evidence that Putin preferred Trump, including that letter to Don Jr as well as the guilty pleas of George Papadopoulos and Mike Flynn. By 2020, the date of this report, court filings were public describing Manafort’s lies that, Amy Berman Jackson judged, he told to cover up what happened at an August 2, 2016 meeting with alleged Russian spy where they discussed how Trump planned to win, how Manafort would get paid by pro-Russian Ukrainians and debt relief from Oleg Deripaska, and a plan to carve up Ukraine. But only here, only amid their desperate attempt to find proof that Vladimir Putin does too hate Donald Trump, do they confess they’ve read any of the charging documents from Mueller.

That is, the time machine was fake, just an attempt to make all the evidence laid out in the SSCI report go away.

As I’ll show, what HPSCI did with the dossier was even worse — so much worse I had to break it out as its own post. There, they don’t even try to maintain the illusion they were dumb to everything they learned since the ICA.

But as to their main report, claiming to assess the treatment of the intelligence in 2017 — a feigned ignorance that is central to their rebuttal of one of three “substandard” intelligence reports — they can’t even maintain that ploy as they attempt to whatabout proof that Putin wanted to help Trump win.

Links

A Dossier Steal: HPSCI Expertly Discloses Their Own Shoddy Cover-Up

Think of the HPSCI Report as a Time Machine to Launder Donald Trump’s Russia Russia Russia Claims

Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe Reveal Putin “Was Counting on” a Trump Win

Tulsi Gabbard Teams Up with Russian Spies to Wiretap and Unmask Hillary Clinton

The Secrets about Russia’s Influence Operation that Tulsi Gabbard Is Still Keeping from Us

Tulsi Gabbard Accuses Kash Patel of Covering Up for the Obama Deep State

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